The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (9/10)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats are from the last 30 days via FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles betting breakdown

Blue Jays (-280), Orioles (+230)
Total: 9.5 runs
Robbie Ray (L) vs. Chris Ellis (R)

Three things to know

• The O’s are free-falling, and their 24.7% K rate is one we can target.
• The Jays are crushing the baseball — they’ve climbed to third in team wOBA (.341) over the last month.
• Robbie Ray ranks among the league’s elite in many categories, and his 32.3% strikeout rate is spicy.

Best bets: The Jays are smoking, and tonight should be no exception. Slam the Jays here.

Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Guardians betting breakdown

Brewers (-142), Guardians (+120)
Total: 9.0 runs
Adrian Houser (R) vs. Eli Morgan (R)

Three things to know

• The Brewers rank fourth with a .336 wOBA in the last 30 days.
• The Guardians have been shockingly decent, ranking ninth in the same stat.
• Cleveland is providing some pop at the plate too, recording a .188 ISO in the last month.

Best bets: The Guardians will try and play spoiler, but not sure that they can against a red-hot Brewers line up. Take a peek at the Brew Crew in a F3/F5 bet.

Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers betting breakdown

Rays (-158), Tigers (+134)
Total: 9.0 runs
Michael Wacha (R) vs. Matthew Boyd (L)

Three things to know

• The Rays are among the league’s elite offenses, posting a .347 wOBA and .225 ISO in the last month.
• Detroit? Meh. Their .307 wOBA is 22nd.
• Boyd has shown major improvement with the long ball, allowing only 0.96 HR/9 this season. Can he keep it up?

Best bets: I don’t like either of these hurlers tonight — take the OVER.

New York Yankees at New York Mets betting breakdown

Yankees (-126), Mets (+108)
Total: 8.0 runs
Jordan Montgomery (L) vs. Tylor Megill (R)

Three things to know

• What happened to this Yankee offense? Their .321 wOBA is solid but their 25.8% strikeout rate is high.
• The Mets stink at the plate, posting a .312 wOBA and .160 ISO over the same time frame.
• Tylor Megill has recorded over a strikeout per inning, but his 5.96 ERA in the last month is ugly.

Best bets: The UNDER. These arms are solid and the offenses are pretty nasty (and not in a good way).

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Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves betting breakdown

Rockies (+164), Braves (-196)
Total: 8.0 runs
Trevor Rogers (L) vs. Ian Anderson (R)

Three things to know

• The Braves have been on fire at the plate with Ronald Acuña Jr. gone, recording a .332 wOBA.
• After a lengthy absence, Trevor Rogers has returned. What can we expect?
• The Marlins have struggled all year at the plate — and in the last 30 days, they’ve logged only a .289 wOBA and 26.2% strikeout rate.

Best bets: Take a long look at Anderson strikeout props.

Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox betting breakdown

Red Sox (+138), White Sox (-164)
Total: 8.5 runs
Tanner Houck (R) vs. Carlos Rodón (L)

Three things to know

• The Red Sox are cooking — they lead the league in team wOBA (.365).
• The White Sox don’t stink either — they are sixth in team wOBA (.332).
• Can Carlos Rodón return to form after some shoulder issues?

Best bets: The pitchers are strong, but the offenses are better. Take the OVER.

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros betting breakdown

Angels (+168), Astros (-200)
Total: 7.5 runs
Shohei Ohtani (R) vs. Framber Valdez (L)

Three things to know

• What can Ohtani not do? The dude has bashed 42 homers and has a 9-1 record.
• The Angels rank as the league’s worst offense in terms of wOBA.
• The Astros are fifth in team wOBA (.336) and only whiff at an 18.0% rate.

Best bets: These are two ace pitchers, and the offenses aren’t great. Take the UNDER.

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins betting breakdown

Royals (+102), Twins (-120)
Total: 10.0 runs
Daniel Lynch (L) vs. Griffin Jax (R)

Three things to know

• These are two bottom-feeding offenses — can one of them wake up?
• The Royals are among the league’s worst teams with a .138 ISO and .303 wOBA.
• The Twins aren’t much better, posting a .309 wOBA and .165 ISO.

Best bets: The UNDER. These two offenses are so bad.

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Reds (-122), Cardinals (+104)
Total: 8.5 runs
Tyler Mahle (R) vs. Jon Lester (L)

Three things to know

• Busch Stadium ranks second worst in home run factor and fifth-worst in park factor.
• The Cardinals rank 11th in wOBA (.325) with a .177 ISO.
• The Reds have backslid with a .317 wOBA (15th).

Best bets: With two mediocre offenses and a pitcher-friendly park, look at a Mahle strikeout prop and the UNDER.

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Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics betting breakdown

Rangers (+146), Athletics (-174)
Total: 8.5 runs
Glenn Otto (R) vs. Paul Blackburn (R)

Three things to know

• The Rangers are just ugly at the dish — they’ve logged a .310 wOBA and .147 ISO in the last month.
• The A’s have been slightly better, recording a .319 wOBA and .180 ISO.
• Paul Blackburn has only a 14.4% strikeout rate this season, but his 46.9% ground-ball rate is keeping him solid.

Best bets: The Athletics are desperate, and I think they are make for a great F3/F5 bet.

San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels betting breakdown

Padres (+138), Angels (-164)
Total: 7.5 runs
Joe Musgrove (R) vs. Julio Urías (L)

Three things to know

• The Padres have been the league’s worst offense in the last month, logging a .282 wOBA and .140 ISO.
• Shockingly, the Dodgers haven’t been much better, rocking a .293 wOBA.
• These pitchers have been outstanding as of late — who can win this ace duel?

Best bets: It feels like a broken record, but this arguably the best pitching slate with two bad offenses. Pound the UNDER.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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