Small Ball: Fantasy Baseball Game Theory (Week 13)

When I began this Small Ball series, I had two main goals in mind.

A) Entertain the audience with my writing, and B) Help people win at fantasy baseball … and not in that order.

I’d like to think, since we review it on a weekly basis, that I’ve given some sound advice. If you picked up Francisco Álvarez earlier this season, you probably crack a smile anytime someone mentions the Mets’ young catcher. Of course, I’ve had some misses as well. You’re definitely cursing my name if you bought low on Josh Bell. However, my influence has spread in other ways – more unfortunately ways, to put it lightly.

About six or seven weeks in, our team here at FTN suggested I cycle through some different player graphics for my article. So I went from the Corbin Carroll featured image over to Justin Steele. Shortly after, Steele experienced forearm tightness and went on the IL. Dang, I thought. If there’s a silver lining, Steele returned this past week and looked close to his normal self. Knock on wood, of course. Yet when Steele hit the IL, I was forced to improvise again. If you know anything about me at all, you know I am obsessed with Vinnie Pasquantino as a baseball player (and fantasy asset).

It was an easy decision for me, so bam! Vinnie P was the next featured image. Ugh. You know how this story ends. Less than a week later, we found out Pasquantino needed season-ending shoulder surgery. Damn, I thought. I’ve created my own version of the Madden Curse. Only this time it’s the Small Ball Curse.

Let’s all pour one out for Vinnie P. Perhaps next year our king will be back in the image rotation. But for now, Steele is teetering on the edge, and I’m forced to use Corbin Carroll during his epic hot streak. Let’s hope Carroll is just so good that he’s immune to my self-inflicted curse.

While we ponder that, here’s my weekly reminder…

Making smart decisions in fantasy baseball doesn’t always have to be based on data. Every other week, I’ll take you through my thought process on how to attack this week’s MLB slate and beyond. The ideas in this series will be fluid. My goal is to keep things fresh so you keep coming back for more. It won’t always be about the NFBC either. If you’re in a H2H points league (like me), I’ve got your back too – especially this week!

Game Theory Week 11 in Review

I’m all about transparency. Most analysts put out great content, but rarely do they go back to review their past takes and “grade” themselves. It’s the best way to hold yourself accountable and review your own personal process. So every other week, I’ll set aside a few paragraphs to review the advice I gave to fantasy mangers two weeks ago. Here’s what I discussed back in Week 9.

Last week, we talked about chasing down our opponents by making tough lineup decisions. I discussed a hypothetical situation where managers could bench Matt Olson for Jake McCarthy if they are atop the HR list but need to gain ground at SB. With every passing week, this advice becomes more actionable. There’s less time now (in Week 13) than Week 11 to make up ground in the standings. So keep that in mind moving forward.

Since there wasn’t anything concrete for us to review, I’m going to introduce a new section, by popular demand in our FTN Discord.

Game Theory Week 13: To Cut, or Not to Cut

“Should I drop Player X?” It’s one of the most common questions we get as fantasy analysts. But it doesn’t stop there. “Who should I drop between Player X, Player Y and Player Z?” That’s another one.

“Is it safe to drop Player X, or should I hold on a bit longer?” These are all questions we field on a daily basis here at FTN. And let’s be honest, there’s no universal rule when it comes to dropping players. It’s player-specific, league-specific, format-specific, scoring-specific, standings-specific. I could go on and on. But let’s do our best. It’s something we all struggle with (myself included). I dropped Michael Kopech about 4-5 weeks into the season. He went 3-2 with a 2.41 ERA and struck out 62 batters in 52.1 innings in his next nine starts.

Maybe that’s one I’d like back. Or maybe Kopech will turn back into a pumpkin soon. Who knows? Remember, this is an inexact science! We’re legitimately halfway through the fantasy baseball season, so these keep-or-cut decisions become all the more important moving forward. So without further ado, let’s break this down into several sections. I’ll give you a few sentences on each so you can see where my mind’s at.

Keep in mind, all leagues are different. Some are shallow, some are deep. NFBC leagues are different from points leagues. I’ll do my best to be as specific as possible so your 20-man league doesn’t yell at me for telling you to drop Reese McGuire at catcher.

Also please note, not every droppable player will be mentioned. I trust your discretion. If you have a specific player not mentioned, DM me directly or reach out in the Discord.

Here we go.

Near-Universal Drops

Starting Pitchers

I want no part of these guys in any format. Some of them (Taillon, Wainwright, Varland, even Corbin) had some bright moments to start the season. Some were expected to be steady contributors. But there’s no reason to mess around any longer. Cut bait.

Relievers

We’re not splitting the atom here. These guys are just dead weight universally.

Hitters

They haven’t helped you yet, and I doubt they’ll help you ROS. If you’re atop your standings, it’s in spite of these players.

Shallow-League Cuts, Deeper-League Holds

Starting Pitchers

<img src="https://d2y4ihze0bzr5g.cloudfront.net/source/2020/Jack_Flaherty.jpg" alt="

Some guys (Singer, Sandoval, Anderson, Flaherty) have flashed at times. They’ve mostly struggled but have a track record and should be held in deeper leagues should the switch flip at any moment. But there’s no reason to trust these guys in shallow formats.

Relief Pitchers

Cano has suddenly become hittable, and Félix Bautista ain’t losing the closer role. Barlow hasn’t been great and the opportunities aren’t there (he must have read this because he saved a few games this week). Still a shallow-league drop. The rest are all just speculative RPs at this point.

Hitters

This is quite the list. Remember, these are shallow-league drops. Even big names like Correa, Abreu, (gasp) Volpe and Anderson are expendable in these formats. The one caveat is if you play in a 5×5 category league and roster Volpe or Walls for steals. I could see holding there. Same goes for other category-specific fillers.

Absolutely Hold

Starting Pitchers

I don’t want to drop any of these guys just yet. Most are obvious holds, but I’d even exercise patience with someone like Severino in shallower leagues.

Relief Pitchers

Alvarado hasn’t jumped back into the closer role, but there’s virtually no reason to panic or cut bait. Phillips has been uber-frustrating, but it isn’t performance related. He still leads LA in saves. Hold.

Speaking of hold, don’t you dare drop Helsley. Discorders know all about my Helsley vs. Gallegos and Oli Marmol rants. The last name on the list is interesting. Chapman isn’t getting any save opportunities, but I want to hold another few weeks in case he’s traded. He looks like the old Aroldis again, and there are teams that desperately need a true closer.

Hitters

There are so many hitters in the player pool that it’s difficult to find players who aren’t universally owned already that you almost certainly should hold. Varsho hasn’t been amazing, but his catcher eligibility is too valuable to drop. I’ve fielded some questions about Chisholm. What’s the saying, “Out of sight, out of mind?” Stay patient. Same goes for Buxton. You’re not dropping him. Kelenic is intriguing. Do not drop Kelenic under any circumstances in NFBC. Other leagues (specifically ones that penalize for strikeouts), you’re OK to sever the cord if necessary.

Can Cut (Roster Permitting/Standings Permitting)

This section could somewhat overlap with the “Shallow League Cuts, Deep-League Holds” section, but I’ll come up with some new names in case a player in question wasn’t listed earlier. This is an “in case of emergency” cut section.

Starting Pitchers

I could have listed a ton of names, but here are some of the biggies. All have value but can be trimmed if your roster demands it. Elder is here because I’m willing the baseball gods to send a bolt of negative regression his way.

Relief Pitchers

<img src="https://d2y4ihze0bzr5g.cloudfront.net/source/2020/Liam_Hendriks.jpg" alt="

Craig Kimbrel
Liam Hendriks
A.J. Minter
Any Arizona RP (well, almost)

I’m team Alvarado vs. Kimbrel rest of season. It was a great story, but Hendriks is droppable. I’m not sure what his timetable is anyway. Minter has struggled and Iglesias is always going to be a problem. Another discord favorite, my Arizona bullpen analysis changes by the day. I strongly believe they will trade for a top-notch closer soon, so Scott McGough, Miguel Castro and Andrew Chafin could be expendable in a pinch. If I had to hold one at the moment, it’s McGough. He’s become the guy lately, and I apologize if I led you astray. But remember, we said the same about Chafin earlier and Castro shortly after that.

Hitters

Again, there are other players who could be on this list. But I wanted to focus on one-dimensional guys. If you’re up the ladder in stolen bases and need to make up ground elsewhere, guys like Kwan, Marte and Giménez can bounce. Same goes for managers who have excess power but need stolen bases. You don’t need Ozuna or Suárez dragging down your average if you’re already good at HR. I figured this section would touch on that other theme.

See more fantasy baseball content here.

That’ll do it for this week’s edition. As I mentioned many times throughout this article, the FTN Discord is a great place to be if you want a more in-depth look at this topic – along with many other topics that will help you in these final months. Feel free to DM me directly or reach out on Twitter @Adam15Young.