NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
It’s been a quiet MLB offseason so far, unless you are for some reason a huge fan of both 30-something-year-old starting pitchers and St. Louis Cardinals. That likely starts to change this week with the MLB winter meetings in Nashville. Get all the GMs together, add a bajillion reporters encouraging them to do something like that meme of the guy with the stick, mix in copious alcohol, and see moves start to happen.
That means that this miniseries either has the best timing possible or the worst, because Monday and Tuesday I’m going to highlight moves every team should make or strategies they should employ this offseason. Either I look smart really fast, I look dumb really fast, or I waited too long and the moves actually come before I even publish this. If that’s the case … well, I’m at least trying to make it interesting.
Below is one thing I think every team should do over the rest of the offseason. American League Monday, National League Tuesday.
2023-2024 MLB Offseason Team Needs: NL
National League East
Atlanta Braves: Just Sign Lucas Giolito Already
All right, a bit of a joke, but the team already signed Reynaldo López, and Lopez and Giolito are apparently a package deal. It’s just some shorthand to say that the Braves need pitching. The lineup is basically the same as last year (oh no, they have to replace Eddie Rosario’s .255/.305/.450 line and already started on that with what currently looks like a Jarred Kelenic/Vaughn Grissom platoon), which means it’s “oh my god” scary. The rotation? After Spencer Strider and Max Fried, it’s scary in a whole different way. The Braves don’t need a top-of-the-rotation arm, necessarily, but they do need to add a whole heap of depth to the unit. Giolito … actually makes a lot of sense.
Miami Marlins: Sign Matt Rife
Another shorthand, this time for “they need something offensive.” (Zing!) The last time the Marlins had even a league-average offense was 2017, when they rode Giancarlo Stanton’s MVP season and supplementary big years from Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich and J.T. Realmuto all the way to a … teamwide 101 wRC+. Their current 2024 lineup has more holes than the plot of late-era 24. Losing Sandy Alcantara for 2024 is brutal, but the pitching could still be decent, if the offense can at least fake relevance.
New York Mets: Trade Pete Alonso
Like when I said the Yankees should trade Gerrit Cole, I don’t believe this will happen (though it’s more likely than Cole). But it should. The Mets realized things weren’t working last year and started the sell-off. The job’s not done. As it stands, the team’s No. 3 starter is Luis Severino, whose body could start falling apart like Mr. Potato Head in Toy Story on any given pitch. The lineup is fine, but it’s not much more than that. Pete Alonso is 29 with one year left before free agency. He’s not a type that likely ages well. And that might have started already — he just had the worst full-year season of his career, with career lows in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. But he still has name value. Get something for it.
Philadelphia Phillies: Hold the Line?
The Phillies have already addressed their two biggest question marks of the offseason by re-signing Aaron Nola and confirming that Bryce Harper will be the regular first baseman. Harper would be more valuable as an outfielder, but if playing in the outfield might risk his health, no he wouldn’t be. So the team is more or less running it back (biggest departures: midseason acquisition Michael Lorenzen, didn’t-play-in-2023 Rhys Hoskins, completely-unusable-by-the-end Craig Kimbrel). There are worse sins. Yeah, they could stand to upgrade either center field or left field. Yeah, they could use more rotation depth. But if any team in the league were to stand back right now and say “Offseason’s done,” this is the one.
Washington Nationals: A Hungry Pitcher
The Nationals are still at least a year — and probably more like two or three — away from even considering being competitive. That’s fine! Not everyone can compete! There were some pleasant surprises in the lineup in 2023, which is what you want. The rotation, though, might be the worst in the league. Patrick Corbin, who now has a 5.00 ERA in five years as a National and has led the league in losses three straight years, might be the anchor. They don’t need aces. But they do need some guys who can go out there and eat innings so they don’t burn guys who aren’t ready yet. Guys like Wade Miley or Sean Manaea, whose greatest virtue is existing, would make sense as a bridge to the future.
National League Central
Chicago Cubs: Replacements!
The Cubs were a pleasant surprise in 2023, coming a game short of a playoff berth and having an expected W-L that was even better. They could run it back and be competitive, run it back-plus and be real factors. The problem, of course, is that they can’t run it back. Some crucial pieces like Cody Bellinger, Marcus Stroman and Jeimer Candelario are free agents. (And Eric Hosmer, which is funny.) The rotation is now “Hendricks and Steele and less than ideal,” while I am far less than sold on back-of-the-lineup guys like Matt Mervis and Nick Madrigal. Sign Matt Chapman and ensure no ball ever leaves the infield. Sign Shota Imanaga and hope for a big-shot arrival. Replace the departures.
Cincinnati Reds: Figure Out Who You’ll Keep and Who You Won’t
To some degree or another, all the Reds’ promotions last year worked out, which means (a) they could have an elite infield for like the next 20 years (they won’t, but still), but (b) they now have an embarrassment of riches, with a full infield of early-career potential stars, more coming, and guys like Jonathan India who are still good but don’t have a home. Commit to some of them and deal the others for some super-duper-desperately needed pitching.
Milwaukee Brewers: Commit
In front of the Brewers are two roads. Down one is competing in 2024. They already locked up Jackson Chourio. Keep Corbin Burnes, sign a mid-rotation starter, shoot for the moon in 2024 (where “the moon” is “87-75 but the NL Central is mid so that’s still a division crown”), and hope the bullpen catches fire in October. Totally valid approach. Down the other road is saving money. Deal Burnes. Deal Willy Adames. Heck, deal Christian Yelich if someone will give you something. Look at Chourio and Sal Frelick and whatever trade acquisitions as the anchor for a competitive team in 2026. Either approach is fine and defensible. What isn’t defensible? Dealing Burnes, maybe dealing Adames, but also signing mid-level guys to feign at competing in 2024 anyway. Because that won’t work. Pick a lane.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Don’t Do That Again
The Pirates went a fairly respectable 76-86 last year. But a not-that-terrible record masked over the fact that a lot of their youth movement has yet to pan out. 37-year-old Carlos Santana and 36-year-old Andrew McCutchen were their fifth- and sixth-best position players, respectively, by bWAR. Rich Hill and Vince Velasquez made 30 combined starts. The Pirates went for “borderline acceptable” by signing veteran retreads they could flip for lottery tickets. It’s a great strategy for winning 74-78 games a year, every year. That win total is fine for a surprise development year. It’s super-awful for an annual expectation. Either shop in the top of the market or don’t shop at all. (It’s Bob Nutting, we know which he’ll pick.)
St. Louis Cardinals: Please Don’t Be Done in the Rotation
The Cardinals have been the most active team so far this offseason, signing Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Sonny Gray. That gives them five starter for 2024 (hilariously, with an average age of almost 35). There’s serious collapse risk with at least four of the pitchers there, and Gray just topped 136 innings for the first time since 2019. If the Cardinals think that group is going to make 140 starts in 2024, they are dreaming. If they think it’s going to make 140 starts with a sub-4.50 ERA, they are dreaming hard. You’ve done some work. Do more.
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks: Read Old Tweets
The Diamondbacks inspired a million tweets in Game 4 of the World Series when they went with a bullpen game and went on to lose 11-7 in a game that was only that close because the Rangers stopped using any important pitchers near the end. And sure, the tweets saying it’s a sacrilege to have a bullpen game in the World Series were ignoring that the Diamondbacks really didn’t have a choice at the time, but … now they do. The Diamondbacks have a contender-level lineup, and a contender-level top of the rotation. And they have nothing after that. They have to get more starting pitchers.
Colorado Rockies: I Don’t Know, Pray?
Nolan Jones was very good last year! Ezequiel Tovar showed promise. Charlie Blackmon had a small dead-cat bounce at age 36-37. And that’s pretty much the list. Brenton Doyle might be the best fielder in the game, but he hits about as well as I do. There’s no pitcher here who is likely to have an ERA under 5.00, let alone 4.00. Their division has at least three teams that should be good-to-very-good next year. If I’m the Rockies, I tear it down and start over (for the hundredth time) … except what are you even tearing down? I’m stumped, y’all.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Get Deeper
The Dodgers are the strongest top-of-the-roster team in the game, especially if Walker Buehler comes back strong in 2024. But as we saw in a certain postseason series from October, if Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman happen to slump at the same time, the team can’t really overcome it. Gavin Lux’s return should help. Signing Shohei Ohtani (if that happens) obviously would as well. But the team needs a stronger bench and (especially) a stronger rotation. Right now, it’s the lineup of a contender, the rotation of a .500 team and the bench of a team that forgot to build a bench. That has to change.
San Diego Padres: Get a Good Return
The Padres trading Juan Soto appears to be a fait accompli at this point. Which is frustrating, because he’s so good and now will be dealt twice by age 25-and-a-couple-months, but it also makes sense, because this team has gone all out in failed ventures for a few years now, and eventually something has to give. So there’s nothing for it. They just have to nail the return. This can’t just be “get out of the money,” it has to be “get out of the money, and also score.” Anything less is a total failure.
San Francisco Giants: Get a Telescope?
Pithy! This just means the Giants need to look for stars. There’s no team in baseball better at unearthing 1-, 2-WAR players, and no team in baseball worse at finding guys who can get serious MVP votes. Brandon Crawford’s fourth-place MVP finish in 2021 was the only time a Giant has gotten more than cursory MVP voting attention since 2014, and considering he had 0.8 WAR in the two season before that, -0.7 in the two seasons after, and was 34 at the time, I’m not sure that counts as the Giants targeting a superstar. They tried on Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. They need to try again. You can build a winning team out of nothing but 1- and 2-WAR players, but it’s so, so hard, and it goes away so, so fast (see the 2021-2022 Giants). Having a 6- or 7-WAR guy as the anchor makes it way easier.
