NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
It’s been a quiet MLB offseason so far, unless you are for some reason a huge fan of both 30-something-year-old starting pitchers and St. Louis Cardinals. That likely starts to change Monday with the MLB winter meetings starting in Nashville. Get all the GMs together, add a bajillion reporters encouraging them to do something like that meme of the guy with the stick, mix in copious alcohol, and see moves start to happen.
That means that this miniseries either has the best timing possible or the worst, because Monday and Tuesday I’m going to highlight moves every team should make or strategies they should employ this offseason. Either I look smart really fast, I look dumb really fast, or I waited too long and the moves actually come before I even publish this. If that’s the case … well, I’m at least trying to make it interesting.
Below is one thing I think every team should do over the rest of the offseason. American League Monday, National League Tuesday.
2023-2024 MLB Offseason Team Needs: AL
American League East
Baltimore Orioles: Recognize That the Future Is Now
Thankfully, this has started to happen, but it needs to happen more. The Orioles won 101 games last year, second most in baseball, and their most since 1979. That was the culmination of the arrival of more prospects than there were Avengers showing up in Endgame. It started with Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, and then they added guys like Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad. Jackson Holliday is due next, with Roster Resource penciling him in as their opening-day shortstop. And yet somehow, they still have a 2028 All-Star team of infielders in the minors, with guys like Connor Norby and Coby Mayo and Joey Ortiz coming. Maybe in 2021 it didn’t make sense to start dealing from the future for the present. But in 2023-2024, it does. Felix Bautista will miss 2024. The team has a whole host of No. 2/3 pitchers with no No. 1. Can you package Ortiz and Mayo for a Corbin Burnes type? Start making the calls, y’all.
Boston Red Sox: Gaze at the Stars
The Red Sox don’t have a bad team. Depending on how guys like Trevor Story and Wilyer Abreu do in 2024, there could be 10-plus offensive players here in line for at least 1 WAR. There are half a dozen pitchers, probably more, here who could be something like the fourth or fifth best pitcher on a World Series team. The problem is that there’s a hard cap. Rafael Devers is the only player here who looks like someone you’d tell your kids about (so far at least). Devers, 37-year-old reliever Brett Martin and 4.24-ERA Brayan Bello were the only players to reach 3 bWAR. The Red Sox have the complementary pieces in place, but they badly need someone around for those complementary pieces to … you know, complement.
New York Yankees: Trade Gerrit Cole
Shock value! I recognize that the Yankees 100% will not do this, but I’m not out here trying to predict what will happen, I’m just going for what should. The Yankees should have an above-average bullpen in 2024 … and very little else beyond Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge. Maybe Gleyber Torres. Stars-and-scrubs builds work in fantasy, but they don’t in real life, and this Yankees roster is the stars-and-scrubs-iest thing we’ve ever seen. Cole has a full no-trade clause and an opt-out after next season, so a trade would be tough, but he’s also a way to jumpstart a rebuild in a way that would keep the Yankees from ever bottoming out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Call the Orioles
Intradivisional trades are always tenuous (which is silly, but that’s neither here nor there), but the Rays seem set on dealing Tyler Glasnow this offseason, despite having a ‘90s Braves rotation on the IL for who knows how long. As mentioned above, the Orioles have enough young controllable bats to fill a zoo but need pitching in a bad way. It’s all very fit-the-jigsaw-puzzle-y.
Toronto Blue Jays: Don’t Count on In-House Replacements
The Blue Jays are set to lose some/all of Matt Chapman, Kevin Kiermaier, Whit Merrifield and Brandon Belt this offseason. I’ve seen other places mention that they are fortunate to have in-house replacements in guys like Cavan Biggio and Davis Schneider. Which is sort of like saying it’s OK if Aaron Rodgers gets hurt, because you have Zach Wilson. (Sorry, Jets fans.) After 5.2 bWAR his first two seasons, Biggio is at 2.0 the last three. After a .426/.526/.894 August last year, Schneider closed with a .174/.321/.406 September/October. The Blue Jays are linked to a big swing in Shohei Ohtani, but I’d far, far rather they make incremental improvements rather than make a big splash and be left with disappointment elsewhere.
American League Central
Chicago White Sox: Turn Not Just One Page, But Lots of Pages
The White Sox are right to be (reportedly) shopping Dylan Cease, who for my money is the most overrated pitcher in baseball today and as such should be shopped before re-pumpkining. The downside is that, even if Cease is more a No. 3 starter than a 2-plus, that’s still way better than the morass of 4’s and 5’s the White Sox will be left with if they deal him. Their projected shortstop had -0.5 bWAR last year and was dumped by three different teams. Their projected second baseman had 4.4 bWAR in 2021 and 1.6 in five four seasons otherwise. What is Luis Robert going to do for this team? Or Eloy Jiménez? Deal Cease. And then don’t cease dealing. (Good line, good line.)
Cleveland Guardians: Find a Way to Cross the Impenetrable Barrier
That impenetrable barrier? The imaginary line that goes straight up from the top of the outfield fences. The Guardians appear to believe any balls that go into the stands are lost to the ether, because they are comically bad at hitting home runs. The Braves hit 307 home runs last year; the Guardians have 251 over the last two years combined. Only the Nationals (287) and Tigers (275) are under 300. Maybe Kyle Manzardo and the Naylor brothers can offer more pop than we might guess, but José Ramírez is 31 now and relying on him to anchor an entire offense is a big ask. Find home runs. Find them somewhere.
Detroit Tigers: Sign 2 More Kenta Maedas
There’s only one Kenta Maeda, so this is actually difficult. But the point is that the Tigers made a good move bringing in a reliable, high-floor, low-ceiling veteran pitcher to kick off their offseason, and they should do that a couple more times. Their make-the-playoffs hopes are basically “Well, the AL Central stinks,” but after breakouts from Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter last year, the offense is still not good, but it’s not the flashing red alarm light it has been. Even the rotation is big on potential. What it lacks is known quantities. Try to get more of those.
Kansas City Royals: Set MJ Melendez Free
As a catcher, MJ Melendez is a fine hitter. As a hybrid outfielder/first baseman/DH/occasional catcher, MJ Melendez is a catcher. Converting a catcher to the outfield when he’s Bryce Harper or Wil Myers is a way to keep his bat in the lineup. Doing it when he’s MJ Melendez is a way to dive headfirst into the sunk cost fallacy. It’s hard to imagine the Royals finding a trade for Salvador Perez, who will be buried under home plate at Kauffman Stadium when he dies, so they instead should find someone who wants to make Melendez a full-time catcher and take whatever they’ll give them in return.
Minnesota Twins: Reverse the Flow
Already this offseason, the Twins have seen Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda leave as free agents. Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are good 3-4-5 pitchers. I could even accept them as the 2-3-4 behind an ace. As the 1-2-3? Goodness. Right now, Chris Paddack — who was decent as a rookie in 2019 and has a 4.85 ERA in 194.2 innings in four years since — is the No. 4 starter, which is a way of saying they don’t have a fourth starter. This offense could be very good. So could the bullpen. The rotation? Gotta stop the departures and start the arrivals.
American League West
Houston Astros: Steal Yordan Alvarez’s Glove
Yordan Alvarez is not the unequivocal best hitter in baseball, but if you’re listing candidates, he’s one of the first names you’ll write down. As a fielder, he’s a good enough hitter to deal with in the outfield. He’s been mostly a DH in his career, but he’s played 40-plus games in the outfield each of the last three years. This is a dude whose bat you have to have in your lineup, and any time he spends in the outfield is just asking for it. It doesn’t have to be a superstar, just someone who can be good enough to be the sixth-best player in a good lineup. Maybe sign Kevin Kiermaier and create an elite defensive outfield to go with the bat-wielding Megazord that is the rest of the lineup.
Los Angeles Angels: Just Trade Mike Trout Already
The Angels are reportedly still in the mix for Shohei Ohtani as I write this, and sure, if they can get him to re-up on a one-year make-good deal, you have to roll it back with Mike Trout and hope the young guys who debuted last year can take a step forward and overcome a very shaky rotation. But assuming Ohtani leaves, what is an increasingly brittle Trout doing for you? The fanbase will already be disillusioned by Ohtani’s departure, so Trout’s presence or absence won’t be that big a thing either way. He’s still got enough cachet to be a prize on the trade market, so jump-start a rebuild in a way that “a draft pick because Ohtani left” won’t.
Oakland Athletics: MLB-Quality Players?
Look man, I don’t know. Usually we talk about players on a team’s roster who could still be around when they are ready to be competitive. In the Athletics’ case, it’s more like which players on this roster might ever be relevant on any competitive team? And the answer is very few. Zack Gelof? Esteury Ruiz as a proto-Terrance Gore? Their best pitchers last year were a guy who is retired (Trevor May) and a 33-year-old who had more bWAR last year than in his whole career before 2023 (Austin Pruitt). Sure, set your sights on Las Vegas, but with that deal all but done, you can start accumulating some talent. Please?
Seattle Mariners: Call the Orioles Before the Rays Do
A few paragraphs above this, I mentioned that the Rays should get on the phone with the Orioles to figure out a “Tyler Glasnow for some of Baltimore’s glut of up-and-comers” trade. Well, replace Glasnow with Logan Gilbert or something, and the Mariners should be making the same call (and, knowing Jerry Dipoto, probably already have). The Mariners have some serious offensive needs in an offseason where there, Ohtani aside, aren’t many serious-offensive-need-fillers, so they should start making those calls. (This is a shorthand for “You have to make some trades, guys,” and dealing Jarred Kelenic in a salary dumb was not what I had in mind, so let’s try again, Jerry.)
Texas Rangers: Ride Through the Streets Waving Your Enemies’ Heads on Pikes
Wait, sorry, that’s not appropriate. I’m just a very excited Rangers fan. Let me try again.
Texas Rangers: Spend All Summer Laughing in the Faces of Your Doubters
Damn it! OK, one more.
Texas Rangers: Don’t Believe José Leclerc and Josh Sborz Can Do That Again
Whew. Back on track. The Rangers won the World Series in large part because Corey Seager became a Monstar, because Adolis García was un-get-out-able, because Evan Carter is still reaching base somewhere, because Nathan Eovaldi shook off injury to be vintage Bob Gibson. Sure, noted. But they don’t win it all if José Leclerc (Jose Altuve aside) and Josh Sborz don’t start resembling Mariano Rivera. And if they want to go into 2024 with them as closer and setup man, respectively, fine. But if there’s some part of them that thinks the bullpen issues that nearly doomed the season are fixed because those two got hot, then that World Series title will not be well defended.
