Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant to Friday’s DFS slate.
1. Through two starts, Trevor Rogers has a 24.1% CSW, 5.9 percentage points below his baseline
Trevor Rogers now has to face a potent Braves lineup that’s inexplicably priced down. As home runs continue to remain severely down, we want to lean even further into correlation through stacking, and an entire team priced down presents a wonderful opportunity to do so. Rogers’ early-season struggles are just the icing on the cake.
(More: Check out Vlad Sedler’s look at the Friday starting pitching slate in The Opener.)
2. Ross Stripling has a baseline ISO allowed of .238, worst on the slate
Ross Stripling is off to a slow start with a 24.5% CSW, 12.5% K rate, and 12.5% walk rate. Consequently, Houston is not the team he would have liked to run into.
He features a fastball and three off-speed pitches, of which the slider allows the most damage. It’s a pitch mix that Houston should feast on, particularly:
- Yordan Alvarez
- Kyle Tucker
- Alex Bregman
- Michael Brantley
- Yuli Gurriel (struggling mightily at the plate)
The only hesitation here is I’m not sure I want to chase isolated power given the enormous decline in home runs around the league.
3. Through two starts, Michael Kopech has a 26.4% CSW, 5.9 percentage points below his baseline
Unlike Rogers, this is not a reason to stack against Kopech. Instead, it’s one that should give us pause before we automatically insert him into our lineups. Even with the inclusion of a slight statistical “penalty” for moving from a bullpen role to a starter’s role, Kopech pops like crazy in the Strikeout Model. His K rate is down from 36% to 24%, his walk rate is up from 8.5% to 12%, and his average fastball velocity is down from 97.5 to 95.5 mph.
So, do we even consider him as a pitching option? Yes — even if we ignore his success a season ago and plug in this season’s numbers, he still projects like so:
Only Justin Verlander would be meaningfully ahead of him in any category, making him a more-than-viable option. For me, it will all come down to his rostership.
4. Patrick Corbin is second on the slate in probability of scoring at least 25 and at least 30 DK points
This is terrifying — what’s going on here? It’s no secret that Patrick Corbin was a shell of his former self last year, but there’s real reason for optimism. First of all, his CSW this year is right in line with his baseline CSW. Second, he’s allowed an extremely low 2.5% barrel rate so far, after allowing a career high 9.2% barrel rate a season ago.
The kicker is the matchup — San Francisco is striking out the fifth most and walking the eighth fewest, and they’re 20th in wRC+. The departure of Buster Posey and the trips to the injured list for LaMonte Wade Jr. and Evan Longoria are clearly taking a major toll on this offense.
Again, it seems impossible, but I believe Patrick Corbin is a strong play Friday.
5. Justin Verlander’s CSW is 28.1% after two starts, over four percentage points below his baseline
Is Justin Verlander back? It’s hard to say. Let’s compare some numbers between his first two starts and his 2019/2020 seasons:
This sample is, of course, too small to draw any conclusions from. However, it’s noteworthy that the stat that will stabilize the quickest, CSW, is where the largest change appears. Verlander is in a tier of his own projection-wise tonight, especially if George Springer misses another game due to being HBP on Wednesday, but his rostership may end up over-inflated.
6. Arizona’s bullpen SIERA is up to 4.39 on the season
From Thursday’s Diamond Data:
Friday, it’s the red-hot New York Mets who will look to take advantage if they can get to Zac Gallen early.
(Build your MLB DFS lineup with our Optimizer!)
7. Zac Gallen is throwing 80% fastball/changeup this year
Zac Gallen gained six runs with his changeup in his rookie season, but it has rapidly declined in efficiency ever since. Despite that, he’s upped his changeup usage to nearly 30% this year. His fastball is really his only good pitch, as he also throws a neutral curveball and a terrible slider/cutter. Here are the Mets who matchup well with this particular mix (in descending order, and yes, it’s a long list):
