Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Data in baseball runs deeper and is more comprehensive than in any other sport. These are the seven stats I find most relevant for Thursday’s DFS slate.
1. Kevin Gausman has a baseline 3.31 SIERA, 3.16 xFIP and 31.2% CSW
All three of these are tops on the slate, leading Kevin Gausman to the best projections across the board in the Strikeout Model despite the tough matchup with Boston. He’s been even better to start the ‘22 season, with a 35.0% CSW.
2. The Tigers are 25th in wOBA, 23rd in wRC+ and eighth in K-rate to start the season
Poor production and lots of strikeouts is the ideal matchup, and it’s one that Jordan Montgomery should take advantage of. Montgomery is third in projected DK points despite the $6,900 price tag.
(More: Check out Jake Kucheck’s look at the Thursday starting pitching slate in The Opener.)
3. Paul Blackburn has a 36.1% CSW to start the ‘22 season, more than 10 percentage points above his baseline.
Truthfully, I have no idea what to do with Paul Blackburn from a projection standpoint. His success this season has all the markers of real improvement — incredible CSW, increased K rate, decreased walk rate, and a fundamental change as his curveball is breaking more horizontally and less vertically. He’s also throwing more changeups and added a slider to keep people off his less-than-stellar fastballs (a combination of fastballs, cutters, and sinkers).
However, the truth is probably somewhere in between — I think he’s a similar play to Mitch Keller Wednesday. He might be good now, he might still be terrible, but the matchup is great and he’ll be super contrarian.
4. The median bullpen SIERA so far this season is 3.37, which would have been best in baseball last year
What in the world is going on here? Bullpens across the league are completely shutting down offenses. From a fantasy perspective, this means there’s a huge edge to attacking the few bad bullpens. Arizona tops the list, with a 4.3 SIERA, one of only two teams above 4.0.
The Nationals will look to take advantage of that bullpen Thursday.
5. Zach Davies throws 55% sinkers, 35% changeups, and both pitches are below average
From the fourth stat of the day, you already know that every single National is in play. However, two stand out as perfect matchups for Davies’ limited repertoire:
Zach Davies also has the highest ISO allowed on the slate at .186. As long as ownership doesn’t get out of control, Washington will be my top stack.
6. Detroit’s bullpen has the third-highest SIERA and the second-highest barrel rate allowed
That’s a recipe for disaster against the Bronx Bombers, so if they can get to Michael Pineda early, watch out.
(Build your MLB DFS lineup with our Optimizer!)
7. Michael Pineda allowed a .346 wOBA and .210 ISO to left-handed hitters last year
Pineda’s fastball-slider combination obviously plays better to righties than lefties, so he uses a changeup against lefties that’s quite ineffective.
There’s one hitter in this Yankee’s lineup who hits all three pitches hard, and he just so happens to be a lefty — Anthony Rizzo. Other Yankees who match up well:
