Super Bowl LVIII Prop Bet Extravaganza

In 2004, the original Scramble for the Ball writers, Ian Dembsky and Al Bogdan, wrote the first Prop Bet Extravaganza at our old website, previewing the upcoming Patriots-Panthers Super Bowl. Twenty years later, the betting landscape has slightly changed.

Twenty years ago, actually betting on these things was a bit more challenging. Unless you lived in Nevada, your options were limited, with billions of dollars going through office pools, under-the-table bookies, or internet sites based offshore. The idea of an “official sports betting partner of the NFL” was crazy talk. The NFL, getting in bed with the oddsmakers? Nonsense of the highest order. Heck, the league even tried to avoid any association with Las Vegas, even famously refusing to allow a Vegas tourism ad during that Patriots-Panthers Super Bowl. Now, of course, they’re holding the dang thing in Vegas proper. 

Betting on how many receiving yards a player would get or how many sacks a team would rack up used to be kind of a fun, jokey thing to do. Now, you can get serious, in-depth analysis on all of that if you want to put some serious coin down – and yes, that includes the experts here at FTN, who will have all the best lines and bets for you over the course of this week as we count down to the Super Bowl proper. If you’re looking to wager on the Super Bowl in a serious fashion, that’s where you want to go.

If, however, you want to bet on some of the goofier things, well … let’s get started!

All of these are real, actual props you can bet on right now – or could have, with all odds being correct at time of writing but subject to change.

Obligatory Every-Year Props

Coin Toss
Heads -105
Tails -105

You would think this would be a 50/50 wager, and on paper, you’d be right. But coins aren’t tossed on paper; you’ve got to go to the film and see which side just wants it more. And in the 21st century, that has been tails, winner of seven of the last 10 coin tosses and once going on a stretch where they won eight out of nine flips in a row from XXXII to XL. Heads was more dominant in the ‘70s, but tails has shown that it can play the modern game at the highest level, and has moved to a 30-27 lead in the all-time standings. Tails also has the experience factor on its side, having been the result the last time the 49ers and Chiefs met in the Super Bowl. Tails never fails.

How Long Will it Take Reba McEntire to Sing the US National Anthem?
Over 1:28: -105
Under 1:28: -125

You can also bet on the lengths of Post Malone’s America the Beautiful (109.5 seconds) and Andra Day’s “Lift Every Voice and Sing” (131.5 seconds), but we’ll stick with the O.G.

McEntire has a long, long history of doing the national anthem at major sporting events, including an 83-second rendition at the 1997 World Series. She’s fairly consistent, too, clocking in at around 85-seconds in multiple renditions stretching the length and breadth of her career. She gets in and gets out fast, is what we’re saying, and even with the added pomp and circumstance of the Super Bowl, a sub-88 second time is well within her range. We’re going Under.

What Color Liquid Will be Poured on the Winning Coach of Super Bowl 58?
Purple: +200
Orange: +350
Blue: +400
Red: +450
Lime/Green/Yellow: +500
Clear/Water: +800
No Liquid: +1000

While some sites will go ahead and call this the “Gatorade prop,” many sites still go with the unbranded and more ominous “liquid.” Personally, I prefer the mystery that comes with “liquid,” because who knows what’s in those large, Gatorade-branded jugs? It could be anything.

Purple and orange are your favorites because they were the colors of choice the previous two times the Chiefs won the Super Bowl. With very little evidence to go on on what San Francisco likes, picking one of them makes the most sense; gotta make sure Patrick Mahomes has his favorite flavor if he’s going to play well, right? Don’t get suckered in by red at +450, though; while a matchup between two teams who wear red might make that seem like a tantalizing pick, red has never been the winning color in the 21st century. Also don’t be overly tempted by blue – while it was the pick in four of the last 10 Super Bowls, three of those were Tom Brady wins; his personal taste may be polluting the historical data. Always got to watch out for those outliers. Give me purple.

Game Leader Props

If you want to be smart in your wagering, go with individual over/unders for things like yards, touchdowns and receptions. That way, you only have to predict one player’s totals, and not try to gauge the entire game plan. That being said, if you just want to pick a winner…

Who Will Have More Passing Yards in the Game?
Patrick Mahomes: -160
Brock Purdy: +120

Purdy averaged 267.5 yards per game this season; Mahomes 261.4. All things being equal, you’d expect both players to be a little under their season averages considering the relative weakness of the other team’s run defense – we’re talking the fourth- and fifth-ranked pass defenses this season, and just the 15th and 27th-ranked run defenses by DVOA. 

I’d put my money down on Purdy here. The most likely scenario for a Kansas City win is if Isaiah Pacheco destroys San Francisco on the ground, which would limit Mahomes’ pass attempts and force the 49ers to pass more to try to come back from behind. Meanwhile, Kansas City is 21st in DVOA on passes to running backs, so some of Christian McCaffrey’s big day might come through the air, and those all count for Purdy’s yards. With Purdy having the longer odds, he seems like the better bet.

Who Will Have the Most Receiving Yards in the Game?
Brandon Aiyuk: +200
Travis Kelce: +290
Rashee Rice: +300
Deebo Samuel: +425
George Kittle: +450
Christian McCaffrey: +1800

While Aiyuk is probably the most likely player to lead the game in yards, only +200 is terribly short odds. Aiyuk hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving day since Week 17 against Washington, either; while he remains Purdy’s favorite deep target, he’s been on a bit of a cold spell. Instead, I’d slide down the list and go with Kittle at +450. Kittle has been a consistent target for Purdy when he’s needed a long gain. He had 18 catches of 20 or more yards in the regular season; no other tight end had more than 14. He was second among tight ends in aDOT at 9.5, and third in YAC at 7.4. The Chiefs have been good at covering tight ends this year, but Kittle’s the best in the business – just ask Travis Kelce.

Who Will Have the Most Rushing Yards in the Game?
Christian McCaffrey: -250
Isiah Pacheco: +150

While McCaffrey’s more likely to have more yards this game, there are three reasons you should take Pacheco on this prop. Firstly, there’s the much better odds; -250 in almost anything is a rough ask. Secondly, the 49ers run defense has been a disaster this postseason so far, going from averaging just 89.7 yards allowed per game during the regular season to 136 and 182 yards in their two playoff games. Thirdly, we can’t count out the possibility that Andy Reid has developed some sort of mind control device, as that remains the best explanation as to why the Baltimore Ravens barely tested Kansas City’s terrible run defense at all.

Vaguely Football Related Props

Will There Be a Scorigami?
Yes: +2000
No: -10000

Final Score to Have Been a Previous Super Bowl Final Score: +350

These two props go together, because while a Scorigami is unlikely, a Super Bowl Scorigami is much tastier.

If you’re unfamiliar, a Scorigami is any final score that has never appeared before in NFL history. That’s getting tougher and tougher to do as time has gone on, but there were nine Scorigami recorded in 2023. At this point, that’s mostly reserved for games where at least one team tops 40 points, as high-scoring games like that are historically less frequent, and thus provide more fertile ground for finding some new, unexplored combination of points. This Super Bowl doesn’t seem like one where both teams will be racing up and down the field, even on Las Vegas’ indoor track. Betting on a Scorigami would be unwise.

Ah, but a Super Bowl specific Scorigami? With only 57 in history, that leaves a lot more openings for unique final scores. Some very common scores remain unclaimed – there’s never been a 27-24 final, or 24-17, or 13-10, or 17-10, or 24-14, and that’s without getting out of the ten most common scores in NFL history. That’s tempting – tempting enough that even at +350, it’s not safe to bet on a duplicate score. Let’s see some Super Bowl Scorigami!

Total Combined Yards of All Touchdowns
Over 74.5 yards: -110
Under 74.5 yards: -110

Total Combined Yardage of All Field Goals
Over 107.5 yards: -110
Under 107.5 Yards: -110

If you’re looking for something a little more fun than just the over/under, combined yardage props are the bet for you. Rather than just betting on score, you’re betting on explosive plays versus goal-line plunges; you’re betting on the style of the game as much as you’re betting on the score.

San Francisco led the league with 21 touchdowns of more than 15 yards; 17 through the air and four on the ground. Miami ended up pipping them to the line in total touchdown yardage, but the 49ers were still second, averaging 55.8 offensive touchdown-yards per game. It’s the Chiefs that are the problem here; they averaged just 19.6 offensive touchdown-yards per game, with just five plays of 15 yards or longer. That, however, excludes Mike Edwards’ 97-yard fumble return against the Chargers, and a big play like that meets the prop by itself. The Chiefs’ offense also has been clicking better in the playoffs, so I’m comfortable going with a combined over for touchdown yards. As for field goals … well, while Harrison Butker has been very reliable on long kicks, the same cannot be said for Jake Moody. Give me the under there.

Total Number of Different Chiefs to Score:
Over 3.5: +120
Under 3.5: -140

Total Number of Different 49ers to Score:
Over 3.5: EVEN
Under 3.5: -120

These props are included mainly because it’s interesting to see the different lines for each team. It should be noted that this is to score any points, so kickers are included here. What we need is three touchdown scorers for either team, and the over hits.

The 49ers have had at least four different players score points 13 times this season, or just over two thirds of the time. This generally involves Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel both scoring, but the 49ers have so many weapons that finding a third hasn’t been all that hard. Kansas City, on the other hand, has only done it six times, usually with Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice finding the end zone. It’s not that crazy to add a Travis Kelce touchdown on top of that, but I’d still go over for San Francisco and under for Kansas City.

Jersey Number of Player to Score First Touchdown:
Over 19.5: -110
Under 19.5: -110

Under gets you Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, the possibly-reactivated Jerick McKinnon, and both quarterbacks. Over gets you Travis Kelce, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle. While that’s a great top three to get for the bigger numbers, there’s just so much range on the smaller numbers that under feels like the better play here. Pacheco gashing the 49ers’ run defense; Aiyuk getting open for a deep shot; Rice or Samuel catching a screen with ten million yards of YAC; there’s a lot there to be happy with.

Super Bowl Records:
Any Player to Score 4+ TDs: +1000
Any Player to Have 205+ Rushing Yards: +2200
Any Player to Have 216+ Receiving Yards: +2500
Any Player to Throw 7+ TD Passes: +4000
Any Player to Have 506+ Passing Yards: +12500

Betting on records to fall is a quick way to lose your shirt. If we had to pick one to fall, though, we’d point to Timmy Smith’s 204 rushing yards, set in Super Bowl XXII after the 1987 season. Smith torched the Denver defense with the help of a 58-yard touchdown run, and long runs seem to be on the cards for both offenses in this one. If either team builds an early lead, expect a heavy dose of McCaffrey or Pacheco. Could they pick up 205 yards in this era of rotating backs? Well, McCaffrey ended up with 81% of the 49ers’ running back snaps even including taking Week 18 off, and Pacheco has by far out-touched CEH and the rest during the playoffs. This seems as good a year as any for a back to rumble for 200+. 

Halftime Props

Number of Songs in Usher’s Set:
Under 8.5: -140
Over 8.5: +110

8.5 seems like a lot for a 12-15 minute performance, but it really isn’t. Last year, Rihanna busted through 15 songs during her set, going through a verse or chorus at best before jumping into her next number. Dr. Dre and company had 11 at Super Bowl LVI, The Weeknd had nine at Super Bowl LV, and so on and so forth. You have to go back to Lady Gaga in 2017 to find someone who would have hit the under at that line, and that performance had some asterisks (was “God Bless America” and “This Land Is Your Land” two songs, or one medley? What about the snippets of “Just Dance” or “Lovegame” in “The Edge of Glory”?). You have to go all the way to Bruno Mars in 2014 to find a show that was definitively, without question, under 8.5. What might tick this to the under is Usher’s new album, which drops Friday, maybe he’ll do a full version of something from Coming Home and devote the majority of his time to selling the new album. I’d be surprised, though. Over. 

Usher Halftime Show 1st Song:
OMG: -250
My Way: +200
Yeah!: +400
Love in the Club: +800
DJ Got Us Fallin in Love: +1000
Burn: +1200
Superstar: +1400
GLU: +1600
Good Good: +2000
Boyfriend: +4000
My Boo: +5000

“My Way” has been Usher’s opener of choice in his most recent concerts; that’s how he opened nearly every show in his Vegas residency last year. That being said, “OMG” is the favorite for a reason – it’s one of his most dance/cluby type songs and might hit a wider audience right off the bat more than one of his slower R&B jams. To kick off the show, you want something up-tempo (so no Burn, to my disappointment), and either “OMG” or “Yeah!” seems like the best ticket he’s got. With “OMG” being the more recent one, it’s the pick.

Appear On Stage w/ Usher During Half Time Show:
Ludacris: +200
Lil Jon: +300
will.i.am: +400
Nicki Minaj: +500
P. Diddy/Sean Combs: +500
Alicia Keys: +500
Taylor Swift: +500
DJ Khalid: +600
21Savage: +800
Jadakiss: +1200
Jay-Z: +1200
Beyonce: +1200
50 Cent: +2000
Madonna: +5000

For those unfamiliar, Ludacris and Lil Jon would make sense as the featured artists on “Yeah!”; will.i.am was featured on “OMG”, Nicki Minaj was on “She Came to Give it To You”, Alica Keys dueted with him on “My Boo”, and P. Diddy and Usher have a long, long working relationship. Of the top names on the list, Keys seems like the most crucial. Usher can do “Yeah!” or “OMG” without help from his featured artists, but “My Boo” is a true duet; you can’t really do it without Keys. Usher may well go to whole show solo (Rihanna did last year, after all), but he has also said that “I didn’t start where I am now, and I didn’t get there by myself, So, everybody that has been a part of it, I’m carrying them with me” in interviews leading up to the game. That doesn’t sound like someone who’s not going to bring any guests on stage with him!

That also doesn’t sound like someone who is bringing Taylor Swift on stage with him, but that’s OK. There are just one or two props that focus on her this year…

Taylor Swift Props

There are hundreds of Taylor Swift props available; it’s entirely possible that Swift’s appearance will be what takes this year’s Super Bowl over the top to become the most-watched event in U.S. television history, outdoing the moon landing. It’s Taylor’s world; we’re all just living in it.

How Long Will Taylor Swift Be Shown Live?
Over 32.5 Seconds: -120
Under 32.5: -120

If you believe the loudest people on the internet, football games this year have featured Swift in a picture-in-picture box all the time while the Chiefs are playing. In reality, Swift is usually on TV for less than a minute, total, during any given game – especially when you exclude halftime, which is what’s included for this prop. Swift clocked in at 32 seconds during the AFC Championship – presumably, that’s where the books got the line — and half of that was in an effort to promote the Grammys. She’s only topped 32.5 seconds one time since Christmas – against Miami, where Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth joked for a good 30 seconds about being surprised that Swift’s booth was underneath theirs, with a matching long lingering shot. That being said, this is the Super Bowl, which will have the highest casual audience of the year. I think Over is a fair bet, especially if the game becomes non-competitive in the Chiefs’ favor. A few extra reaction shots whenever Travis Kelce does something big seems fair enough for a public event on this scale.

Which Will Be Higher:
Taylor Swift’s Grammy Awards: -200
Chiefs Total Touchdowns: +150

There a ton of Grammy props available, but I’m writing this before the Grammys and you’re reading it after the Grammys, so most of it is a moot point. I’m keeping this one in so everyone can laugh at my attempts to predict music awards, and use that as a datapoint on how to trust me anywhere else.

Swift is nominated for six Grammys, and she’s in play for all six. I think Midnights will come through as Album of the Year; I don’t think it’s quite her best album (I prefer Red), but it’s hard to doubt the impact Swift has had on…well, pretty much everything pop culture related this year. That would also assuredly give Midnights the best Pop Vocal Album award. I’ll also give “Karma” the Pop Duo/Group Performance nod over SZA, giving her three. I think it stops there, though; while “Anti-Hero” could get Record of the Year and Song of the Year and Pop Solo, I think some combination of Billie Eilish and Miley Cyrus will stop her there. That’s still three grammies, and the odds of Kelce catching three touchdowns against Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw seems low. Give me the Grammys.

Swift’s Travel from Japan to Las Vegas to Be Shown
No: -700
Yes: +400

Caveats time! This only counts during the game, from kickoff to final whistle, and excludes halftime. If there was anything, anything in the world, that screamed “preshow segment” more than breathlessly covering Swift’s travel, it would be news to me. There’s a little meat on the bone for the story, with Swift apparently being unable to fly directly from her show in Tokyo to Las Vegas due to a lack of slots available for private jets – you know, relatable problems. That’s something they’ll do a bit on for all the Swifties who have tuned in early, and then drop it unless it’s the blowout to end all blowouts. No.

1st Person Shown Next to Swift at Super Bowl LVIII
Britanny Mahomes: +100
Donna Kelce: +250
Jason Kelce: +500
Scott Swift: +700
Andrea Finley: +800
Abigal Anderson Berard: +900
Cara Delevigne: +900
Ed Kelce: +900
Gigi Hadid: +1000
Mike Tyson: +3300

Once again, this is from kickoff to final whistle – and, most importantly, it does not have to be live. With that in mind, give me Jason Kelce, as a way of throwing a bone to the football fans who might make up a small proportion of the Super Bowl audience – yes, we have a pop star here, but look! A football man is there, too!

Which Song Will Tony Romo Reference First:
Bad Blood: -150
Shake it Off: +200
Karma: +300
Blank Space: +350

The thing you have to remember when breaking down this prop is that Tony Romo is unbelievably lame. We’re looking for the most-Dad joke reference we can possibly find; the most tortured way we can try to squeeze in a reference to something popular. I like the relatively long odds of “Blank Space” here. Kelce works his way through traffic to get open in the back of the end zone? Finding a blank space. One of the 49ers’ receivers finding a hole in coverage and racing for a ton of YAC? That’s a blank space in coverage. Kyle Shanahan’s trophy case? Well, that’s got a blank space in it too, doesn’t it? Too many easy opportunities for only the lamest possible jokes. We believe in you, Tony. 

Which Swift Song Will Broadcast Break to First?
Anti-Hero: +250
Shake it Off: +275
Bad Blood: +350
You Belong With Me: +350
Look What You Made Me Do: +475
Blank Space: +500
I Knew You Were Trouble: +550
Cardigan: +800

I’m sorry, exactly what part of “Anti-Hero” is good go-to-commercial music for a football game? Is it the bit about everybody being a sexy baby? The section about laughing up at us from hell? Or about depression and ghosting people? It’s a great song, really, but we can leave the songs about self-loathing and insecurities to the grunge we hear every time Seattle plays. “Shake it Off” might be a decade old and annoy Swifties who want to hear Taylor’s latest stuff, but it’s still her biggest single among non-fans, spending six months in the top 10 in 2014. For non-Swifties, it’s likely still the first song they associate with her, and so it’s your choice for the widest audience.

Chiefs to Win & Kelce to Propose to Swift From the Field: +1500

49ers Win 1st Half, Taylor Swift Invited on Stage by Usher to Perform; She Sings “Shake it Off”; Chiefs win the Super Bowl: +25000

This is fanfic. These should be on AO3 or Fanfic.net, not gambling websites. 

…There are already 32 fanfics tagged “Travis Kelce/Taylor Swift” on AO3. One of them is over 33,000 words long. This is information I can’t unlearn, and neither can you, now.

And Finally…

Las Vegas is Invaded by Aliens and the Game Ends in a Tie: +100000 

Yes, this is a real prop bet you can take (or was at time of writing, at any rate). And it is, of course a sucker’s bet.

…

Section 17, Article 8 of the NFL Rulebook clearly states that if, under emergency circumstances, an interrupted regular-season or post-season game can not be completed on the same day, such game will be rescheduled by the Commissioner and resumed at that point. And not even a Dalek invasion can usurp the authority of Roger Goodell. You’ve gotta pay attention to these technicalities if you’re going to bet on something like this. Wouldn’t want to look foolish, after all. No.