Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Continuing with my traditions from the old site, we’re not going to bother with the full 32-team table of weighted DVOA ratings, since there are only two teams left and most teams haven’t played for three weeks. We’ll just take a quick look at both teams set for Super Bowl LVIII: The San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Baltimore Ravens remain No. 1 in DVOA despite losing to Kansas City. That happens sometimes, because one playoff game is just one game out of an entire season and the Ravens had a pretty healthy lead before this game. Plus, the Ravens ended up with positive DVOA in the loss because of opponent adjustments for playing Kansas City. In fact, both teams were positive even without opponent adjustments! With opponent adjustments, the Chiefs were at 75% DVOA and the Ravens at 21% DVOA.
The San Francisco 49ers are second in both total and weighted DVOA if we include the playoffs, and the Kansas City Chiefs are third in both. Both teams sat starters in Week 18 so we’ll have two sets of numbers here. First, the total and weighted numbers that include Week 18. Second, the numbers without Week 18 included (for offense and defense).
You’ll be surprised to see that the Chiefs offense is lower in weighted DVOA. That’s because of their performance in the second half of the regular season, not their performance in the playoffs. And the Chiefs defense actually comes out better if you include Week 18, not if you remove it.
| TOT | Rk | OFF | Rk | DEF | Rk | ST | Rk | |
| SF total | 37.6% | 2 | 31.8% | 1 | -8.1% | 5 | -2.4% | 26 |
| KC total | 24.3% | 3 | 12.8% | 8 | -8.8% | 4 | 2.7% | 7 |
| TOT | Rk | OFF | Rk | DEF | Rk | ST | Rk | |
| SF weighted | 34.4% | 2 | 31.8% | 1 | -5.6% | 8 | -3.0% | 29 |
| KC weighted | 23.8% | 3 | 9.2% | 8 | -11.7% | 4 | 3.0% | 7 |
| TOT | Rk | OFF | Rk | DEF | Rk | ST | Rk | |
| SF total (no Week 18) | 38.9% | 2 | 32.5% | 1 | -8.7% | 4 | -2.4% | 26 |
| KC total (no Week 18) | 25.7% | 3 | 14.4% | 7 | -8.7% | 5 | 2.7% | 7 |
| TOT | Rk | OFF | Rk | DEF | Rk | ST | Rk | |
| SF weighted (no Week 18) | 38.6% | 2 | 33.2% | 1 | -8.4% | 6 | -3.0% | 29 |
| KC weighted (no Week 18) | 24.0% | 3 | 12.1% | 8 | -8.9% | 5 | 3.0% | 7 |
Next, here are one-game ratings for the conference championships.
| DVOA (with opponent adjustments) | ||||
| TEAM | TOT | OFF | DEF | ST |
| KC | 75% | 32% | -40% | 3% |
| BAL | 21% | 6% | -6% | 10% |
| DET | 43% | 44% | 5% | 4% |
| SF | 37% | 44% | 5% | -2% |
| VOA (no opponent adjustments) | ||||
| TEAM | TOT | OFF | DEF | ST |
| KC | 33% | 8% | -22% | 3% |
| BAL | 2% | -3% | 4% | 10% |
| DET | 5% | 34% | 33% | 4% |
| SF | 17% | 38% | 19% | -2% |
Kansas City won with a 95% Post-Game Win Expectancy, while San Francisco had a 59% PGWE.
Finally, there’s one more table to run. Even though the Ravens didn’t win in the end, they still end up as one of the top teams ever measured by DVOA. We ran our list for the regular season back when the regular season ended. Now let’s run our list that includes the playoffs. Note that the 49ers have fallen off this list because they haven’t been as good in their two playoff games so far as they were in the regular season.
| Best Total DVOA incl. Playoffs, 1981-2023 | ||||||
| Year | Team | TOTAL | OFF | DEF | ST | Result |
| 1991 | WAS | 53.9% | 22.0% | -24.8% | 7.1% | Won SB |
| 1985 | CHI | 52.3% | 13.3% | -36.9% | 2.1% | Won SB |
| 2007 | NE | 50.8% | 36.7% | -10.4% | 3.7% | Lost SB |
| 1989 | SF | 45.1% | 29.9% | -16.3% | -1.0% | Won SB |
| 1996 | GB | 44.9% | 12.7% | -22.3% | 9.9% | Won SB |
| 2023 | BAL | 44.5% | 19.0% | -22.6% | 2.9% | Lost CCG |
| 1992 | DAL | 42.8% | 27.5% | -13.5% | 1.8% | Won SB |
| 2010 | NE | 42.6% | 36.4% | -1.3% | 5.0% | Lost DIV |
| 2004 | NE | 41.7% | 22.5% | -17.8% | 1.4% | Won SB |
| 1995 | DAL | 41.4% | 29.2% | -7.9% | 4.2% | Won SB |
| 1998 | DEN | 40.0% | 34.7% | -5.3% | -0.1% | Won SB |
| 1984 | SF | 39.5% | 23.6% | -12.5% | 3.5% | Won SB |
| 2013 | SEA | 39.5% | 7.2% | -25.3% | 7.1% | Won SB |
