Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
A couple of years ago, I developed a new metric alled Post-Game Win Expectancy (PGWE). The idea was to explore games where the losing team has a higher DVOA rating than the winning team. How unlikely are these losses? PGWE has nothing to do with how good the teams are on the season, or coming into the game. It only looks at the numbers of this particular game to give you an idea of how likely it was for each team to win given how well they played on the more predictive plays.
PGWE incorporates VOA (without opponent adjustments) for both combined offense and defense and pass and run separately. It also incorporates the difference between the two teams in special teams, penalties, and total plays. (Obviously, teams with more plays will win more often, even if they have a lower VOA suggesting lower efficiency in the future.)
I thought it would be fun to take a look at the least expected NFL wins based on PGWE. We did this at one point on the old site but we have more years of PGWE and more years of data now, plus this version of PGWE uses the new DVOA version 8.0 introduced before the 2023 season. As an extra bonus, this article debuts some of our numbers from the upcoming reveal of 1979 and 1980 DVOA. Coming very soon!
You can find PGWE for every game of the last few years available in the downloadable Premium Splits workbooks on the Historical Archive page.
Here are all the games since 1979 where the winning team had a PGWE below 2.0%:
13. 1979 Week 8: Baltimore Colts 14, Buffalo Bills 13 (1.9%)
Our first game is a bit surprising, the difference between the teams doesn’t seem big enough to make this list, but here we are. Joe Ferguson and the Bills had 4.78 net yards per play with 36% success rate (324 total yards) while Bert Jones and the Colts had just 4.28 net yards per play with 28% success rate (261 total yards). The Bills squandered a scoring opportunity with a fake field goal try on fourth-and-10 from the Colts 31 in the first quarter; kicker Nick Mike-Mayer got four yards on the carry for a turnover on downs. On the next drive, Mike-Mayer missed a 44-yard field goal. The Bills also fumbled the ball away in the final minutes after a reception by running back Roland Hooks.
12. 1990 Week 4: Buffalo Bills 29, Denver Broncos 28 (1.9%)
The Broncos had a 21-9 lead after three quarters but the Bills scored two touchdowns on an 80-yard blocked field goal return by Cornelius Bennett followed by a 39-yard interception return by Leonard Smith. (The interception counts in DVOA, but returns are seen as somewhat random.) When John Elway couldn’t field a snap on the next drive, the Bills got the ball on the Denver 2 and Kenneth Davis quickly ran it in for another score. John Elway led a touchdown drive with 1:30 remaining, but of course there was no 2-point conversion back then. Overall, the Broncos had 410 total yards to just 197 for the Bills but lost the turnover battle, 5 to 3. On a per-play basis, the Broncos dominated with 5.39 net yards per play and 49% success rate compared to 3.36 and 31% for the Bills. This is also another game where the kickers had a terrible day, as Buffalo’s Scott Norwood went 1-for-3 with a missed extra point while Denver’s David Treadwell went 0-for-2.
11. 2022 Week 10: Minnesota Vikings 33, Buffalo Bills 30 (OT) (1.7%)
Of course you all remember this one from just a couple years ago, highlighted by a Josh Allen blown snap on the Buffalo 1 that was recovered in the end zone by Eric Kendricks of the Vikings. That gave the Vikings a 30-27 lead with less than a minute left, but Allen led the Bills 69 yards in 31 seconds for a game-tying field goal. In overtime, the Vikings got the ball first, kicked a field goal, and then stopped the Bills by intercepting an Allen pass to Gabriel Davis on second-and-10 from the Vikings 20 with 1:19 left in overtime. The totals for this one are similar: Bills with 486 yards and Vikings with 481 yards, each team with two interceptions. However, there were four fumbles in the game, two by each team, and the Vikings recovered them all. The Vikings also had a couple of really big plays, including a Dalvin Cook 81-yard touchdown. Therefore, the per-play stats favor the Bills significantly. The Bills had 55% success rate with 6.75 yards per play compared to 41% and 6.18 yards for the Vikings.
10. 1984 Week 10: Denver Broncos 26, New England Patriots 19 (1.7%)
This one had a really crazy gap in success rate, with the Patriots at 52% and the Broncos at only 32%. But the Patriots kept driving and then getting stopped short, with Tony Franklin getting five field goal attempts and making four of them including one for (ugh) 19 yards. That kick from the Denver 2 made the score 19-12 Patriots with 8:24 left, but John Elway led a 78-yard touchdown drive capped off by a touchdown pass to Butch Johnson with 4:03 left. On the ensuing Patriots drive, Mosi Tatupu was stripped by linebacker Steve Busick at the Denver 35 and safety Dennis Smith returned it all the way for a touchdown to give the Broncos a 26-19 lead. (This was another game where there were four fumbles, two by each team, and Denver recovered all four of them.) The Patriots drove back but Tony Eason launched it deep on third-and-15 from the Denver 41 with 37 seconds left and Steve Foley picked it off to seal the victory.
9. 1993 Week 9: Detroit Lions 30, Minnesota Vikings 27 (1.6%)
This is an interesting one because the Vikings had the much higher success rate (49% to 33%) but the Lions had more yards per play, 6.71 to 5.25. The Lions got a 42-yard run from from Barry Sanders in the second quarter and a 93-yard touchdown pass from Rodney Peete to Herman Moore on the first play of the fourth quarter. The Vikings had taken a 27-13 lead, but that pass to Moore made it 27-20. Then the Lions got a Jason Hanson 32-yard field goal to make it 27-23, and finally a 1-yard plunge from Derrick Moore to take a 30-27 lead with 43 seconds to go. Detroit recovered three of the four fumbles in this game. They also won despite getting flagged for nine accepted penalties for 63 yards, compared to just three for 21 yards by Minnesota.
8. 1984 Week 7: Denver Broncos 17, Green Bay Packers 14 (1.6%)
Yes, Denver had two of the most unlikely wins of the last 40 years within a four-week period in 1984. That’s how they ended up just eighth in DVOA despite a 13-3 record that season. The Broncos won this game with the worst offensive performance of the week by DVOA. The Packers had 43% success rate with 6.24 yards per play while the Broncos were at 28% success rate with 3.90 yards per play. The totals are even more striking, with the Packers at 423 yards and the Broncos at 193 yards. However, the game was played in a blizzard with 15 inches of snow. The Packers fumbled the ball seven times, with the Broncos recovering four of those including the first two Packers plays of the game — and both of those were returned for touchdowns. First, Tom Jackson stripped Gerry Ellis and Steve Foley recovered for a 22-yard touchdown return. Then after the next kickoff, Jessie Clark fumbled without being touched and Louis Wright returned that one 27 yards for another score. As a bonus, Packers kicker Eddie Garcia missed both his field goal attempts in the snow. The Packers finally scored a couple of touchdowns in the second half, including a 54-yard pass from Lynn Dickey to James Lofton, but Dickey fumbled on a Rulon Jones sack with 3:08 left and the Packers never got the ball back.
7. 1984 Week 8: Indianapolis Colts 17, Pittsburgh Steelers 16 (1.4%)
This game makes three of the 10 biggest reverse PGWE games within a four-week period of the 1984 season. The Colts actually had the higher success rate on offense, 39% to 34%, but the Steelers had more yards. Pittsburgh outgained the Colts 405 yards to 301 yards, or 6.43 yards per play to 4.36 yards per play. Some of that was a 59-yard pass from Mark Malone to Weggie Thompson on the final play of the game, but Thompson was tackled by Nesby Glasgow before he could get into the end zone.
6. 2003 Week 17: Arizona Cardinals 18, Minnesota Vikings 17 (1.3%)
I apologize to Nate Tice that this came keeps coming up. The Vikings, coached by his father Mike Tice, were 9-6 entering this game and just needed a road win over the 3-12 Cardinals to make the playoffs. The Vikings had 45% success rate with 5.52 yards per play and held the Cardinals to 34% success rate with 3.65 yards per play. The Cardinals also fumbled five times in this game and recovered all of them. Minnesota held a 17-6 lead with 6:48 left in the fourth quarter. But Josh Scobey returned the ensuing kickoff to the 40 and Josh McCown led a 60-yard touchdown drive ending in a 2-yard touchdown pass to tight end Steve Bush and a missed 2-point conversion. That made it 17-12 with 1:54 left. Arizona then recovered the onside kick — that’s another play that’s not included in DVOA, since it is very random — and McCown brought the Cardinals down to the Minnesota 9 with 39 seconds left. The Vikings sacked McCown twice in a row to make it fourth-and-25 from the Minnesota 28. McCown even lost the ball on the second sack but left tackle Reggie Wells fell on it to maintain possession. Arizona had no timeouts left but they managed to get a play off with four seconds remaining and McCown completed a 28-yard pass to Nate Poole with a tiptoe-tap on the side of the end zone to win the game and end Minnesota’s season.
5. 2022 Week 2: Miami Dolphins 42, Baltimore Ravens 38 (1.2%)
Here’s another recent game, with the Dolphins coming back from a 35-14 deficit in the fourth quarter and Tua Tagovailoa throwing six touchdowns on the day. Unlike most reverse PGWE games, the winner here (Miami) had more total yards, 547 to 473. Success rates were similar, but Baltimore had more yards per play, 8.76 to 7.93. The PGWE formula doesn’t like that the Dolphins had two interceptions to zero for the Ravens, and it doesn’t like that the Dolphins had eight accepted penalties to just one for the Ravens. Also, the Ravens passing game was insanely efficient, particularly if we include Lamar Jackson scrambles, and the PGWE formula likes passing success more than rushing success. The Ravens had 11.2 net yards per pass (including two scrambles for 29 yards) with a 63% success rate on these plays.
4. 1990 Week 14: New Orleans Saints 24, Los Angeles Rams 20 (0.9%)
Let’s go back to 1990 once again. The big issue here is that the Rams had so many more plays than the Saints, and fewer penalties, yet came away with the loss. The Rams had 78 plays with 444 total yards and the Saints had only 43 plays with 218 total yards. (Yes, the Rams also had more yards per play.) The Saints also had eight penalties while the Rams had no accepted penalties all game. However, the Saints did score in the third quarter with a Brett Maxie 50-yard interception return touchdown off Jim Everett. The Rams had a 20-10 lead early in the fourth quarter but Gill Fenerty took the ball 60 yards for a touchdown on a third-and-1. When Cleveland Gary fumbled it back to the Saints on the next Rams drive, the Saints went another 58 yards with a Steve Walsh 4-yard touchdown pass to Eric Martin giving them a 24-20 lead with 5:26 left. The Rams drove down to the New Orleans 9 with seconds left but Jim Everett could not find a receiver on fourth down and a dumpoff went incomplete to give the Saints a victory.
3. 1979 Week 8: New York Giants 21, Kansas City Chiefs 17 (0.6%)
This time, two of our biggest reverse PGWE games took place in the same week! The Chiefs outgained the Giants in total yards 463 to 226 but turned the ball over four times with two interceptions and four fumbles (two recovered by the Giants). The Chiefs had more plays 80 to 58 and fewer penalties 13 to 7. On a per play basis, it was Chiefs with 5.79 net yards per play and the Giants at only 3.90, with a success rate difference of 52% to 34%. This game also had three missed field goals on four attempts, with Jan Stenerud going 1-for-3 for Kansas City while Joe Danelo was 0-for-1 for the Giants. The Chiefs had a 17-14 lead when fullback Mike Williams fumbled the ball on the Kansas City 23 with 1:48 left in the game. Harry Carson picked it up and ran it in for the go-ahead. The Chiefs then made it down to the Giants 9 on their final drive but Mike Livingston threw three incomplete passes and time ran out.
2. 2018 Week 2: Tennessee Titans 20, Houston Texans 17 (0.5%)
This game wasn’t among the top reverse PGWE games when I first created PGWE because of a change in how I compute DVOA. The new version of DVOA introduced before the 2023 season now removes fake punts and field goals from total offense and defense because those are really special teams plays. That significantly lowered the Titans’ offensive DVOA in this game because of a 66-yard fake punt pass from Kevin Byard to Dane Cruikshank. Take out that play, and the Texans had 41% success rate with 7.16 yards per play while the Titans had 34% success rate with just 4.96 yards per play. Even including the fake punt, the Texans outgained the Titans in total, 437 yards to 283 yards. However, the Titans got one Ryan Succop field goal to tie the game at 17 with 9:43 left and then another field goal after a 62-yard drive to give them the lead with 1:05 left. The Texans ran out of time after a 31-yard pass from Deshaun Watson to DeAndre Hopkins with 17 seconds left and no timeouts.
1. 2002 Week 14: Houston Texans 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 6 (0.4%)
Steelers fans knew this one was coming. This is the king of all reverse PGWE games. The other games on this list all ended up within one score. The Steelers outplayed the expansion Texans and still lost by 18 points! It’s not that the Steelers offense was that great, with just 34% success rate and 4.44 yards per play. However, the Texans offense had just 18% success rate and 1.23 yards per play. So the Steelers had 422 total yards and the Texans had 47. That’s not a misprint. FORTY-SEVEN YARDS in a WIN. David Carr completed 3-of-10 passes for 33 yards but took four sacks. Two running backs combined to carry the ball 23 times for 31 yards. So, how did the Texans win this game? They won with defensive return touchdowns, of course! In the first quarter, Tommy Maddox lost the ball on a scramble and nickelback Kenny Wright returned it 40 yards for a touchdown. On the next drive, Maddox got it down to the Houston 35 before throwing an interception that cornerback Aaron Glenn returned 70 yards for another touchdown. Antwaan Randle El fumbled it away after a reception on the next drive but at least the Texans couldn’t advance that one for another score. It was 14-6 in the fourth quarter when Jabar Gaffney muffed a punt return for Houston and the Steelers recovered. Gifted the ball on the Houston 25, they immediately lost 10 yards on a holding call, then lost another 10 on another holding call, and eventually got to fourth-and-3 on the Houston 18 with 5:44 left. Maddox got sacked by Gary Walker. The Texans then went three-and-out but Randle El muffed the punt and the Texans kicked another field goal after doing five yards backwards. That made it 17-6. Maddox brought the Steelers down to the Houston 38 and then threw another interception to Glenn on fourth-and-2. Glenn returned this one for a touchdown as well to make it 24-6. The Steelers added in another 60 yards on a desperation drive that fizzled out on the Houston 16 and wouldn’t have tied the game anyway.
That game is your reverse PGWE champion.
Honorable Mention: Top 3 Reverse PGWE Playoff Games
1. 2000 Divisional: Baltimore Ravens 24, Tennessee Titans 10 (5.1%)
2. 2014 NFC Championship Game: Seattle Seahawks 28, Green Bay Packers 22 (OT) (8.7%)
3. Super Bowl XLIII: Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Arizona Cardinals 23 (10.5%)
Honorable Mention: Top 5 Reverse PGWE Games of the Last Decade
1. 2018 Week 2: Tennessee Titans 20, Houston Texans 17 (0.5%)
2. 2022 Week 2: Miami Dolphins 42, Baltimore Ravens 38 (1.2%)
3. 2022 Week 10: Minnesota Vikings 33, Buffalo Bills 30 (OT) (1.7%)
4. 2021 Week 13 Seattle Seahawks 30, San Francisco 49ers 23 (2.8%)
5. 2014 Week 10 Kansas City Chiefs 17, Buffalo Bills 13 (3.6%)
