Aaron Schatz's Articles

Merry Christmas! Are you ready for the DVOA Bowl? The San Francisco 49ers continued to stomp all over the NFL with a 45-29 victory that was not as close as it looked. The 49ers had 79.6% DVOA for the game even after opponent adjustments for playing the Cardinals. They are listed with 7.5 yards per […]

No long introduction to this week’s column, just an appreciation of James Cook and his huge game against the Dallas Cowboys. Cook had 104 total DYAR for this game. Based on current opponent adjustments, that’s the top game for any running back this season. Cook’s game was so big that Dallas dropped from sixth to […]

Welcome to Week 15 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]

The San Francisco 49ers continued their winning ways this week, dominating DVOA and every other advanced NFL metric across the Internet. The 49ers are now up to 45.3% DVOA and 47.9% weighted DVOA. They are No. 1 on offense by a ton but also No. 4 on defense. Their special teams are below average, ranked […]

Brock Purdy has easily been the most efficient quarterback in the NFL during the 2023 season. Purdy now leads all quarterbacks with 48.9% passing DVOA. He also leads quarterbacks in passing DYAR despite throwing fewer passes than most starters. That brings up the controversy about whether Purdy should be the MVP or not. Purdy is […]

Welcome to Week 14 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]

Last week, I took a look at Route DVOA for receivers. This is DVOA based on value per route run rather than value per target, to account for the fact that earning targets by getting open is a skill. Now we’re going to flip that around and look at our DVOA vs. Types of Receivers […]

The San Francisco 49ers move into the top spot in DVOA this week after a huge victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. The 49ers rank as the eighth-best team ever tracked by DVOA through 12 games. However, we also still have the Baltimore Ravens super high, much higher than other advanced metrics. In fact, the Ravens […]

Tyreek Hill does not make our Quick Reads list of the top five wide receivers of Week 13. Neither does Brandon Aiyuk. Hill ends up eighth, thanks to one catch for a 6-yard loss and the opponent adjustments for playing the worst pass defense in the league, the Washington Commanders. Aiyuk is even lower, since […]

Welcome to Week 13 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]

You may remember that back in the preseason, I introduced a new concept called Route DVOA. I’ve been doing receiving DVOA for 20 years, but it’s always been based on value per target. Route DVOA is based on value per routes run, which accounts for the skill of getting open and earning targets. It’s probably […]

It’s getting tight at the top of our DVOA ratings after 12 weeks of the 2023 NFL season. At the same time, it’s not tight at all. That’s because we have two teams nearly tied and then a huge gap between those two teams and the rest of the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens remain No. […]

Before we got into the best and worst players of Week 12, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the remaining schedule strength for players. This should particularly be a help for fantasy football purposes. With that in mind, I looked at average defensive DVOA of opponents in Weeks 13-17, leaving […]

Welcome to Week 12 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]

Something is afoot in the state of Pennsylvania, at least when it comes to DVOA ratings. Why do we have Philadelphia so low and Pittsburgh so high? They’re right next to each other, ranked 10th and 11th. Yet the Eagles lead power rankings around the Internet and have the best record in the NFL at […]

You gotta be able to get the ball deep sometimes. Man does not live on checkdowns and short crosses alone. Brock Purdy got the ball deep on the way to being this week’s top quarterback by DYAR. Purdy currently leads the league in DVOA on deep passes, defined in the league play-by-play as passes of […]

Welcome to Week 11 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]

The NFL had a record six different games decided by a game-winning field goal on the last play this week. That’s going to usually wreak havoc on the connection between DVOA and win-loss records. In general, fans and commentators will wildly overrate the predictive value of a close win on a last-second field goal. These […]

Updated Tuesday morning with Monday Night Football. None of this week’s best or worst players really stood out historically so I thought it would be a good week to take stock of the whole season. Which players have seen the biggest opponent adjustments so far? Remember that opponent adjustments aren’t based just on how good […]

Welcome to Week 10 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]

The Cleveland Browns travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens this Sunday at 1pm EST, which is good because this week’s DVOA commentary is going to concentrate on these two franchises. The new Browns and the oLD Browns are both making historical waves. This is the third straight week that the Ravens sit at No. […]

C.J. Stroud is having an incredible rookie season, but it hit its peak in yesterday’s game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Stroud had five touchdown passes and set a single-game rookie record with 470 passing yards, also leading a last-minute comeback for a 39-37 win. As you might suspect, Stroud also set records by our […]

Welcome to Week 9 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]

The Baltimore Ravens remain No. 1 in DVOA after this week’s 31-24 victory over the Cardinals. With San Francisco and Kansas City losing this week, the Ravens have now opened a huge lead over the rest of the league, more than 10 percentage points. San Francisco remains second, with Kansas City dropping one spot into […]

Will Levis had an impressive debut at quarterback for the Tennessee Titans this week, with four touchdown passes. However, this game was not one of the best quarterback debuts in DVOA history because Levis played a bad pass defense (Atlanta) and had a low success rate of 29%. Most of his success came from the […]

Welcome to Week 8 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]

We thought Week 6 was Upset Week in the NFL, but Week 7 really was Upset Week. Last week’s top four teams in DVOA all lost this weekend: San Francisco, Detroit, Buffalo, and Miami. Baltimore’s victory over Detroit was so gigantic that the Ravens leaped up 15 percentage points of DVOA and now hold the […]

Now updated with Monday Night Football as of Tuesday 10am EDT. Lamar Jackson had a dominant performance on Sunday in a 38-6 victory over the Detroit Lions. Many analysts felt it was the best passing performance of his career. But by DYAR, it wasn’t even the best performance of the week. That belonged to Patrick […]

Welcome to Week 7 of our DVOA-based picks. Each week, I pick (almost) every game straight up and against the spread, as well as over-under totals. This does not make this advice to bet every single game! You’ve got to pick and choose and be smart about it. But for people in office pools, we […]

Last week, I took a look at Route DVOA for receivers. This is DVOA based on value per route run rather than value per target, to account for the fact that earning targets by getting open is a skill. Now we’re going to flip that around and look at our DVOA vs. Types of Receivers […]

A week of upsets and near-upsets are probably shaking up power rankings all over the Internet. Over here with DVOA ratings, we don’t have as much of a shakeup. First of all, Week 6 represented just one week out of six, and DVOA stays away from recency bias. Second, the San Francisco 49ers were so […]

Mac Jones of the New England Patriots has a very strange career path. Jones was good as a rookie, very productive compared to other rookie quarterbacks. He ended the year with 6.1% passing DVOA, 13th that year among qualifying quarterbacks. By DYAR, Jones had the 10th-best passing season for any rookie in our database, back […]