Aaron Schatz's Articles

Here's our first look at Route DVOA and DYAR for 2024, led by Falcons wideout Drake London and Justin Jefferson of the Vikings.

The Ravens move into the top slot with one of the best offenses ever tracked by DVOA. Meanwhile, if it feels like the really bad teams are particularly bad this season, that's because they are.

It was a big week for Lions stars including Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jared Goff. Plus, a look at who has gained and lost the most value due to schedule so far.

FTN's Aaron Schatz offers up his favorite bets for Week 7 of the NFL season based on DVOA.

Here's a look at cornerback coverage DVOA through Week 6 of the 2024 season, highlighted by Marshon Lattimore, Jaylon Johnson, Patrick Surtain, and a surprising Stephon Gilmore.

The Vikings stay on top, the Lions are No. 2, and the Packers, Bucs, and Falcons move up. It's a big year for the NFC!

Jared Goff was good and Dak Prescott was bad this week, plus a look at Calvin Ridley and other wide receivers with big 0-for days.

FTN's Aaron Schatz offers up his favorite bets for Week 6 of the NFL season based on DVOA.

The undefeated Vikings are still on top with the undefeated Chiefs climbing six spots to No. 3.

Kirk Cousins didn't have one of the best DYAR games ever, but he had the best game so far this year. Plus, the rest of the best and worst of Week 5.

FTN's Aaron Schatz offers up his favorite bets for Week 5 of the NFL season based on DVOA.

Defense drives the Vikings into the top spot. Plus: the best 2-2 teams in DVOA history, why DVOA and EPA differ on the Commanders, and more!

Few quarterbacks have ever started their career hotter than Jayden Daniels of the Commanders. Can he keep it up? Plus, best and worst players of Week 4 by DYAR.

FTN's Aaron Schatz offers up his favorite bets for Week 4 of the NFL season based on DVOA.

The Bills climb to No. 1 with a big Monday night win. Plus: How bad is the Washington defense vs. historically bad defenses?

In a bit of a surprise, Malik Nabers doesn't finish among Week 3's top wide receivers, but he's part of a strong rookie class so far.

FTN's Aaron Schatz offers up his favorite bets for Week 3 of the NFL season based on DVOA.

The Saints continue to dominate early, the Panthers are terrible, the Seahawks have been surprisingly good, and the Chiefs... mediocre?

It was a big week for Kyler Murray, Geno Smith, and... Malik Willis? Yes, Malik Willis!

FTN's Aaron Schatz offers up his favorite bets for Week 2 of the NFL season based on DVOA.

Just how much does it mean for the New Orleans Saints to destroy a bad opponent in Week 1?

One NFC South quarterback had the best day of his career yesterday, but it may not be the one you expected. Plus, all the DYAR stats from Week 1.

FTN's Aaron Schatz offers up his favorite bets for Week 1 of the NFL season based on DVOA.

Updated 2024 projections are here, with San Francisco as our Super Bowl LIX favorites.

Learn more about the FTN Football Almanac 2024, plus download the free sample L.A. Chargers chapter!

We’re continuing our look at 1979 and 1980 DVOA ratings with the unveiling of the 1980 player DVOA and DYAR ratings. Earl Campbell was an absolute beast in 1980, even better than he was in 1979. Dan Fouts had another great year. The Falcons and Browns had very strong offenses, and the Patriots had a […]

The Philadelphia Eagles top the ratings as the best team of 1980, narrowly surpassing the surprising Atlanta Falcons. This makes two straight years on top for the Eagles, as they also rank No. 1 for the 1981 season. The Oakland Raiders, who became the first wild-card team since the merger to win the Super Bowl […]

Let’s continue our look back at 1979 and 1980 DVOA ratings. Today we have player DVOA and DYAR from the 1979 season. It was a good year for the Cowboys, Chargers, and Patriots offenses. It was a very good year for Earl Campbell and the Houston Oilers running game. A reminder, here’s the complete schedule […]

Today, DVOA finally reaches all the way back to the 1970s. All this week, I’ll be introducing DVOA ratings from 1979 and 1980. That means we’re back to the Steel Curtain Pittsburgh Steelers, and it will not shock you that the champions of Super Bowl XIV were also the No. 1 team in the NFL […]

It’s the offseason, which means it’s a good time to look at fun past games of NFL history. Today, let’s look at the 10 best DVOA ratings ever scored in games where the team lost anyway. These are generally very good, close games against teams that ranked very high in DVOA and therefore had strong […]

Earlier this week, we examined adjusted games lost at the team level. Today, we’ll switch perspectives to evaluate the impact of injuries on each position. Note that adjusted games lost totals do not include the postseason. As we noted in our first article, injury totals were down across the NFL this year, so there aren’t […]

The Houston Texans were a surprise playoff team in 2023, and they made it to the playoffs despite leading the league in injuries to significant players according to our adjusted games lost (AGL) numbers. Cleveland also made it to the playoffs despite a high AGL in 2023. Other teams that suffered a ton of injuries […]