Aaron Schatz's Articles

Xavier Worthy has established himself as Kansas City's No. 1 receiver as we go into Super Bowl LIX. Plus: All the DYAR numbers from the conference championships.

We said the Chiefs couldn't keep winning like this unless they played better. And so, they played better and kept winning.

Here we are again: The Bills were the better team in the regular season, but the Chiefs have home-field advantage and that Mahomes Magic.

The most aggressive coaches on fourth downs in 2024 included Dan Campbell, Sean McDermott, and... Brian Daboll?

Jayden Daniels had the biggest day of the weekend by DYAR. Plus: Why was Saquon Barkley's DYAR so low with so many yards?

Odds to Win Super Bowl LIX Revised as of 1/27/25, through Week 21 Compiled by Mike Harris The NFL playoff picture odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on […]

We're down to the final four, but DVOA clearly sees two teams as clear favorites for Super Bowl LIX: Philadelphia and Buffalo.

Here we go with the MVP Bowl: Two of the best quarterbacks in the league, two of the best teams by DVOA, only one of them can move on to the AFC Championship Game.

FTN's Aaron Schatz offers up his favorite bets for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs based on DVOA.

Last time, the Texans faced the Chiefs, Kansas City controlled the entire game. Can the Houston defense make this rematch different?

We've got DVOA updated for the playoffs! Baltimore is still No. 1, but Houston is climbing after one of the year's biggest single wins.

2024 DVOA Downloads Updated January 27 Historical DVOA Archive Here’s what you will find in these workbooks: ALL BASIC DVOA STATS 1979-2023 Total DVOA with past schedule, variance, estimated wins, and Pythagorean wins. Offensive DVOA with run/pass splits. (Remember, scrambles are passes for the purposes of team DVOA!) Defensive DVOA with run/pass splits. Special Teams […]

Ladd McConkey set a rookie receiving yards record for the playoffs. Did he set the DYAR record too? Plus best and worst players of the Wild-Card Weekend.

Can a blitzing Vikings defense get to Matthew Stafford, who excelled at getting the ball out quick against blitzes this season? They didn't in Week 8.

From the Ravens offense to the Eagles line and the Broncos defenders, Aaron Schatz explains his All-Pro votes for 2024.

FTN's Aaron Schatz offers up his favorite bets for the Wild Card Round of the NFL playoffs based on DVOA.

The Ravens and Steelers split their season series but DVOA says the Ravens were the best team in the league this year, a clear favorite on Saturday night.

The Texans won the AFC South by default, with a poor offense lifted by a strong defense. Can they score enough points to beat the wild-card Chargers?

Our annual look at the best and worst players in our DYAR metric is highlighted by huge seasons for Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and George Kittle.

The Ravens finish the season No. 1 for the second straight year, while the Lions do something only six other teams have done since 1978.

Here's a look at the best and worst players of Week 18 by DYAR.

Here's another update on our coverage DVOA for cornerbacks, showing why Patrick Surtain is a leading DPOY candidate.

FTN's Aaron Schatz offers up his favorite bets for Week 18 of the NFL season based on DVOA.

The Baltimore Ravens keep moving up and now rank among the best overall DVOA teams of all time. Yes, we've seen this before.

It was a big week for quarterbacks, with five of the top 13 games of the season by DYAR.

FTN's Aaron Schatz offers up his favorite bets for Week 17 of the NFL season based on DVOA.

The red hot Packers move up to No. 2 in weighted DVOA as the best team in the league since Week 11. Get all the updated ratings here!

Patrick Mahomes was the top quarterback of the week thanks to opponent adjustments. Who else played well against Houston this season?

FTN's Aaron Schatz offers up his favorite bets for Week 16 of the NFL season based on DVOA.

The Lions are out of the top spot, but the Bills aren't in. Instead, DVOA likes the 9-5 Ravens the most. Let's go in depth on why that is.

With Jared Goff leading all quarterbacks in value this week, we take a look at passing to the middle of the field: who does it most and who does it best? Plus, best and worst players of Week 15.

FTN's Aaron Schatz offers up his favorite bets for Week 15 of the NFL season based on DVOA.