MSG Week 9 DFS Breakdown

Welcome to “The Breakdown,” a deep game-by-game breakdown that covers game theory as well as player/game analysis for the full NFL weekend slate. If you have been with me from a past life, welcome back! I know there are many game-by-game articles out there, so I truly appreciate the loyalty.

For those that are new, here is a basic guide. The “CORE” plays are for a DFS player that is building a single entry or three-max GPP lineup. The “core” plays can be used in cash, but I always send out a Sunday a.m. “cash core” update (I put it at the bottom of this article) to narrow down the player pool even further. Most optimal cash lineups will be centered around opportunity opened up by injury, so no sense of spending hours tinkering. Reserve your cash game entries with the plan of modifying on Sunday morning.

I encourage you to read the whole article, as there is a lot of roster construction and other strategy tips you will miss. I also have on-going jokes and other fun things I slip in to see who is reading and who is not. OK, enough with my BS, let’s get into Week 9.

#FTNDaily

All odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook as of the start of the week.

“GPP only” plays that are not in BOLD are for MME only. BOLD CORE plays are the players I will have the most exposure to.

CAR +10.5. O/U: 52.5
CAR: 20 | KC: 32.5

Pace and playcalling

The Chiefs have worn many hats this season. They flash their high-powered passing attack at times, but also go run-heavy. They pass at the 12th-highest rate (56%) and have the 16th-fastest pace in neutral situations, which both are about league average. Small sample, but they have passed more at home, 61% (neutral). 

Carolina operates at the ninth-slowest pace and runs first (55% pass rate, neutral). The team passed at a 50% rate in Week 1 with Christian McCaffrey. Chiefs are allowing 153.5 total yards per game to RBs (27th) but have limited both TDs and receptions so are middle of the pack in fantasy points per game allowed. KC (6-2 ATS) has also played more snaps with a lead (312) than any other team this season, but teams continue to try and run the ball at KC (53.61% rush rate against, sixth-lowest). 

It is a sound strategy, with KC allowing the No. 31 opponent passing yards percentage, ranked sixth in pass and 28th in rush DVOA. Kansas City is last in Football Outsiders’ stuffed ranking (runs stopped behind the LOS). 

The Chiefs are dominating their opponents, with an average scoring margin of +12.6 PPG and 20.7 in their last three, both first. CAR surprised many with a three-game win streak, but have regressed, losing three in a row, all by a TD or less. 

Panthers

With McCaffrey potentially back, everything we think we know about Carolina is dead. Everyone takes a usage hit, as Mike Davis averaged 16 carries-plus-targets over his last three while filling in, but the returning starter was seeing 27 in 2019 and 25 in Week 1. Kansas City All Pro DE Frank Clark (knee) is OUT, which helps CMC and this entire offense. 

Robby Anderson should have another good game, running his routes in the middle of the field where KC is most vulnerable — the short/middle section of the field, where he sees 33% of his targets. With Carolina likely down big, Anderson should see an elevated target rate (8.6 targets per game, seventh-most). He is a good runback on KC stacks. 

.

D.J. Moore has a tougher draw when looking at matchups and areas of the field KC gives up production. I won’t have much of him this weekend. 

Teddy Bridgewater runs into a good and bad spot. Kansas City is a tough matchup, but Carolina will be forced to pass more than usual, and now he is cooking with some fire, adding McCaffrey to Moore, Anderson and Curtis Samuel. If I submit 150 lineups, I would have 5-7 CAR stacks with Teddy. 

Injuries 

• CAR CB Rasul Douglas was also back for his first practice after coming off the Reserve/COVID-19 list. He has been solid, but we have no idea what the disease does to athletic performance, with the sample still too small, that said, my guess is not great. He is already speed-challenged, making this a brutal matchup to come back to. 
• CAR Cornerback Corn Elder (toe) was limited.
• More secondary issues, rookie safety, as Jeremy Chinn missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury and is doubtful. Per the Panthers website, Defensive end ?Brian Burns? advised Chinn “not to rush back too soon with whatever is ailing him… I told him to rest up,” Burns said. “It’s probably more serious than what he thinks.” 

Chiefs

Coming off 416 yards and 4-TDs, Patrick Mahomes is back as the most expensive quarterback on both FD ($9.3k) and DK ($8.1k). The price is warranted, with four games of 30-plus DK points in seven outings, six with 20-plus (his average of 9.1 adjusted yards per attempt ranks first). The only game he fell short of the 20-point mark was the snow game in Denver, where he was on track (200-1-0) before the game got out of hand. In addition to the insane efficiency, the baby GOAT is getting more rushing points than his previous two seasons, a trend we saw toward the end of 2019. It is only +1.2 carries and 5 yards per game, but he also is getting one red-zone rush attempt per game, which increases his chances to reach that 35-point (or higher) ceiling. Carolina may have a solid DvP vs. QBs, but it isn’t because they are good. They sit in zone coverage and don’t blitz, which Mahomes should be able to pick apart, as he has dominated zone defenses (Carolina has allowed a 69% completion rate, 27th). Last week, the Panthers let Matt Ryan pass for 9 YPA, but he failed to throw a TD pass in an ugly, rain-soaked game. 

The only thing you can find that is a negative is Carolina’s 57.1% opponent rushing TD percentage, +5% above 31st-ranked Miami. 

The Chiefs are a double-digit home favorite against a team that allows 1.5 rush TDs per game (third). Clyde Edwards-Helaire has unfortunately been remanded to a committee, seeing 9 touches per game in his last two, both blowout wins, while still carrying a price tag from his early-season usage. This is not the kind of player I like to use. I like high-usage, and snap shares of 44.4% and then 27.3% just ain’t gonna do it. For you ultra-contrarians, CEH has six of 12 RB red-zone carries in those two games, with three in the blowout going to DeAndre Washington (I think we can throw those out with him traded to Miami). CEH is set up in the dream spot, so a TD or two, along with 50-60 total yards and 2-3 catches gets you 21 fantasy points on DK, at low ownership. 

Le’Veon Bell has played 33% and 26% of snaps, also got 9 touches, matching CEH with 3 targets as well. Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson split 15 snaps as well in the blowout, which is another risk CEH and Bell carry. We avoided the narrative BS from last week, no reason to go here.

Tyreek Hill is still the low-volume home-run hitter. He has shown signs of being a high usage guy, but he remains at 6.8 targets per game (18.9% target share), which is well below the line I (normally) consider when paying up for a WR. He has yet to surpass 6 receptions or 100 yards (though he has one at 90 and another at 98), riding a league-high eight touchdown catches to his WR10 rank. He is going to put it all together at some point, and this may be the week. Carolina is most vulnerable on deep passes on the right side of the field, allowing a 117 opposing passer rating on a 53% completion rate allowed (27th), compared to 52 on the left side of the field (15-yard attempts). Hill sees 47% of his targets in that quadrant of the field. He gets 27% more of his targets in the most vulnerable part of the Carolina pass D, so I expect another big game from Hill. 

Mecole Hardman exploded last week (7-96-1), and I missed it, which is tilting considering how many times I have posted his prop bets this season. I did have a good amount of Demarcus Robinson in the Sunday morning update, which was great at his $3.2k price and minuscule ownership compared to the chalk Denzel Mims, but missing on Hardman will leave a mark. Robinson will run his routes in the strength of this D, but this is Mahomes, so we aren’t going to fade him because of it. These guys become high-risk dart throws if Sammy Watkins returns to the lineup (returned to practice). If Watkins is ruled out, I prefer Robinson again due to his price.

Travis Kelce is expensive, but you need to jam him in your Mahomes stack. He too will run the majority of routes in the weak spots of the Carolina zone defense, so should catch a ton of balls, leading the team with 8.3 targets per game. Looking at DvP when it comes to Mahomes and Kelce is useless; the combo of his skills and being tied to Mahomes puts him in a TE tier of his own. He can also be used as a one-off as the clear TE1 on the slate. 

Core plays: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill (core play, but not a cash-game play), Patrick Mahomes (see Hill), Christian McCaffrey

(Stack note: The Mahomes/CMC/Hill/Kelce stack is possible on both main sites, but easier on FD. That said, if you punt DST and use Robinson with it, you are left with $4.5k per player to round out your lineup, which is enough since this slate is full of value.)

GPP only: Demarcus Robinson (GPP punt, cash if Sammy Watkins sits), Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore as a runback to Mahomes stacks 

BAL -2.5. O/U: 46.5
BAL: 23.5 | IND:: 23

Pace and playcalling 

This is not a great game for pace, with Baltimore ranked 31st and Indianapolis 25th in overall pace. The same goes for pass rate — Baltimore is 32nd (45%) and Indianapolis 26th in overall pass rate. It is even worse if the Colts get even a 3-point lead, dropping to a 42% pass rate. If it stays close, it will stay run-heavy and the clock is going to move quickly. 

The best-case scenario is an early Ravens lead, as they stick to the same offense and pace even when in the lead. The Colts will switch gears however, passing at a 69% rate and playing at a quicker pace. 

Both teams are in the bottom-12 in plays per game; Indianapolis is third in plays allowed. 

Indy has the fourth-lowest blitz rate and the ninth-highest pressure rate. They are the only team that is in the bottom-10 in blitz and top-10 in pressure. Baltimore has the highest blitz rate (44%), and the fourth-highest pressure rate. Indy is fifth in pressure rate allowed, but when they do allow it, Philip Rivers has handled it well, with the highest QB rating under pressure this season. 

Ravens

Lamar Jackson has just one more top-six finish than Rivers this season. The difference in price between the two QBs has been about $2.5k of your salary cap per week. I am not comparing the two, I’m just pointing out from a dollar-per-fantasy-point perspective (or ADP), Old Man Rivers has been the better value. 

With Indy’s ability to rush the passer while also not blitzing, this is a tough matchup for Jackson, who is 30th in pressure completion rate (29%), compared to 25th when clean (71%). Indy has allowed back-to-back 300-yard performances to Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford, but both of those teams passed 40 times (Jackson averages 27.1 attempts per game), and even with those games Indianapolis is still the toughest team in fantasy points per game allowed to the position. Of course, we play Jackson for his legs — he averages 9.4-58.7 with 2.4 red-zone touches per game. This is the first time he has been below $8k on DK this season, but just barely ($7.9k), so I am not looking to play him on anything outside of contests I MME. 

It appears Mark Ingram will be OUT again after missing Thursday’s practice, eliminating one of the parts of this three-headed back field. With Ingram out last week, J.K. Dobbins played a season-high 66%, getting 15 carries and a reception on 2 targets (121 total yards). Gus Edwards also got his season-high 16 touches for 87 total yards (1 target). Baltimore runs so much (47 times in Week 8, 33 times per game this season), that we know these guys are going to get work. Dobbins has been impressive — third in yards created per touch, fourth in yards per touch and first in adjusted and actual yards per carry thanks to three carries of 20-plus yards. Edwards actually has four such carries, tied for fourth among all players and one fewer than Jackson (Baltimore leads the league in runs of 20-plus yards).

The Colts have only allowed two such runs this season, with the fifth-best rush DVOA (second in yards per carry against). Last week they allowed Lions backs 8 yards on 11 carries, which is a bit comical. They have run into two power-rushing teams like Baltimore, allowing Dalvin Cook to go for 14-63-1 and Kareem Hunt 20-72-0 (3-21-1 through the air). We saw Baltimore run all over the Pittsburgh D, which looks just as good on paper as Indianapolis, so I am rolling these backs out. Dobbins will likely be in the Sunday core at just $5.3k (FD) and $4.9k (DK). He has the talent and the passing-game work, so I prefer him over Edwards. 

The Ravens will have two new starters on the offensive line with both Tyre Phillips (ankle) and All Pro Ronnie Stanley put on injured reserve. Stanley went out after 22 snaps, so they switched Orlando Brown from right tackle to left tackle and then inserted D.J. Fluker at right tackle. The changes sure didn’t hurt last week, so I am just hoping the injuries and Indianapolis D keep the ownership low. 

Marquise Brown will ride in on a squeaky wheel after seeing just two targets in Pittsburgh last week (he had not been below 6 in a game all season before that). Narrative is one thing, logic is another. When a team’s No. 1 target (23.86% target share, 38.6% air yard share) only sees 2 targets in a loss, expect him to get targeted the next week. We love speed WRs on the carpet, so at $5.9k at FD, I will have a lot of Hollywood. Colts have allowed five touchdowns to WR1s, and are more vulnerable on the right side, where Brown has seen success. Rock Ya-Sin lines up on the side and is not fast enough (4.52 40-yard time) to hang with Brown (third-most deep targets per game). 

Mark Andrews continues to get pulled down by his low volume, averaging 5.6 targets a game after 6.5 in 2019. His red-zone target share is so high (36%) that he has three top-three finishes when he scores and three games between 4.0 and 6.2 fantasy points. Indianapolis allowed 8-88-0 to the Lions TEs and 6-63-0 to the Cleveland TEs over their past three games. Other than that, they haven’t faced anyone. If you are going all in on a Lamar Jackson stack, Andrews makes sense, but as a one-off, his price doesn’t make a lot of sense on FanDuel given the volume. On DK, he has been adjusted all the way to $4.8k, making him a viable TE play there. He is now in the “hope we get a TD” tier with T.J. Hockenson and the rest of the non-Travis Kelce, non-Darren Waller TEs. 

Colts

This team is a bust for DFS. The RB situation has been a nightmare, the WRs suck, and they have too many TEs that troll one another. 

The team had a staff member test positive for COVID-19, so the team decided to change to a walk-through on Thursday. That means the practice report is an estimation. That all means that things are a bit up in the air, and I will update Saturday night or Sunday morning. 

WR4 Ashton Dulin is likely OUT. T.Y. Hilton is likely to miss the game as well. Even if he goes, I want no part of a banged-up disappointing receiver. WR Marcus Johnson could miss with a knee injury as well, leaving this WR core with very few healthy bodies (they were already thin).

The Colts got rookie Michael Pittman back from IR a week ago and will play alongside Zach Pascal. Pittman was monitored for “close contact” coronavirus precautions but wasn’t considered high risk, so should be good to go, but as always, monitor this situation. The Colts play so much 12 personnel (two TEs) that the receiver situation won’t hurt them as much as it would some teams. Basically, we should expect a big dose of Trey Burton, Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox. 

More on Philip Rivers and pressure. He is one of the only QBs with a higher passer rating under pressure (109) than when clean (93.5), Stafford the other of note. All six of Rivers’ interceptions have come under pressure. He is being much more conservative this season, ranking 31st in danger plays (1.2 per game, per Player Profiler), compared to fifth last year (2.8 per game). Positive gamescript has led him to two consecutive QB6 finishes (28 and 22 fantasy points on DK). Baltimore is middle of the pack in fantasy points per game allowed and have been tough lately against QBs, allowing a 59% completion rate in their last three games (64% for the season).

Jonathan Taylor (ankle) and Jordan Wilkins (groin) would have all participated fully if the team had had a real practice. Taylor picked up an ankle injury Sunday, which led to a Wilkins breakout (113 total yards on 21 touches). Nyheim Hines actually played his lowest snap rate (21%) but busted out with 3-54-2 in the passing game. He kills the other two if the gamescript turns against the Colts, making this entire situation a mess. If all the WRs are out, Hines would be my preferred dart throw because I think the Ravens win this game. 

Core plays: J.K. Dobbins, Marquise Brown, Mark Andrews (better on DK) 

GPP only: Lamar Jackson/Andrews/Nyheim Hines stack, Indianapolis DST (Pittsburgh forced 4 takeaways last week vs. BAL, Indianapolis is eighth in takeaways)

CHI +6.5. O/U: 46.5
CHI: 20 | TEN: 27

Pace and playcalling 

These are two very different teams. Chicago is second in overall pass rate and 28th in scoring (20.1 PPG), while Tennessee passes at the No. 28 rate and scores the sixth-most points per game (29.7 PPG). 

Tennessee is playing FAST — third-fastest neutral pace and using no-huddle at the second-highest rate (19%). The Titans have stayed fast with a lead (fourth) but go even more run-heavy at 58%. 

The defenses are also on opposite sides of the spectrum, with Tennessee (20th in DVOA) allowing 26.3 PPG (18th) compared to Chicago at 20.1 (eighth, sixth in DVOA). 

Chicago is 29th in the league in offensive touchdowns per game (2.0), while Tennessee is averaging 3.7 (seventh) and 4.0 per game in their last three. Tennessee has the No. 4 offensive DVOA and Chicago is 28th, making this a matchup of strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness. 

Bears

Nick Foles has not cracked the top-12 in any week, but he was at least competent last week against New Orleans, putting up 272 yards and two TDs. He has faced a tough schedule, going up against the Buccaneers, Colts, Rams and even Panthers, who allow all their fantasy points against RBs. This would be his softest matchup since getting the gig in Atlanta, which is still his ceiling (188-3-1). 

Titans CB Adoree’ Jackson, who is eligible to come off IR, did not practice Thursday, which is worth monitoring. Malcolm Butler has started to shadow, matching up with A.J. Green and for 80% of snaps (2-19 on 5 targets), while completely shutting out Chase Claypool on 68%.

Allen Robinson did not fare well when he was shadowed by James Bradberry in Week 2, but je can move inside to get away from Butler if the Bears choose (21% slot rate). He has been playing less inside with Anthony Miller playing a season-high 76% last week (91% in the slot). Robinson has seen a decline in usage — after a three-game stretch averaging 13 targets per game, he has averaged 6.6 over his last three. Darnell Mooney’s increase in usage (along with a slight Miller resurgence) is to blame. 

This is a strange one for me, being such a Robinson truther. He is a stud but is connected to this terrible offense and QB play (5.4 YPA, 29th). Per Player Profiler, he is 90th in target rating, 91st in separation, 84th in true catch rate, 58th in yards per target, 64th in FP per target, etc., etc. I understand if you MME, he would be the guy to run back with a Tennessee stack, or if you take a flier on Foles.

David Montgomery is the best player for Chicago in this spot. Tennessee is under-the-radar bad against backs, allowing 26.1 FPPG on DK this season after Cincinnati backs posted 25-94-2 rushing and 4-18-1 through the air. Montgomery’s snap share continues to hover in the mid-80s (85%-83%-84%), seeing 5.8 targets per game in his last five games (2.2 in 2019). People cap on this guy, but looking at the metrics he is not “bad.” Fifth in yards created, eighth in evaded tackles, running behind the No. 17 O-line. He is fourth in RB targets and fifth in RB catches and has 14 RZ touches in his last three games. By comparison, Derrick Henry has 13 in his last three. He is underpriced given this new usage rate so I expect some ownership, the projection models are going to like him. 

(The Bears had a positive COVID-19 test late in the week, leading to the team shutting down the facility out of caution. I will update later in the weekend as needed.)

Titans

I prefer Ryan Tannehill when the opponent can score enough to get them into a shootout. But you can’t help but notice how efficient he is again, ranking fourth in adjusted YPA, fantasy points per dropback and accuracy. But he is still 19th in pass attempts and now runs into a plus matchup against a team that also doesn’t score much (Chicago has gone under in five of eight games). 

Derrick Henry (23 carries per game, first) is in a sneaky-good spot for GPPs. Chicago should allow for a good script for him and is nothing to fear against the run (11th-highest percentage of rush yards allowed). Henry has 454 yards after contact, which is 12 yards more than Montgomery has in total rush yards. He is first in carries and red-zone/goal-line touches, so is always going to have a top-three TD probability and 95-105 yards as his yardage prop. 

Corey Davis has been ballin’ out, with 10 targets in both games since his COVID-19 break. He has hauled in 14 of those 20 targets and has two TDs (ninth in fantasy points per route run). He will run more routes at Kyle Fuller (56% catch rate allowed in coverage), which is not a good matchup for him with Davis making a lot of contested catches with next to no separation.

A.J. Brown has the better primary CB matchup with Jaylon Johnson, but the Bears have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to WRs. Much like Allen Robinson, I am all about Brown, but this isn’t a spot where I am going to pay up on a single-entry or three-max. In Milly Makers and other large GPPs, his 30% RZ target share and big-play ability keeps him in play at 5% or lower ownership. 

Kalif Raymond played 39% of the snaps after Adam Humphries left with a concussion last week. He will play most of the slot WR snaps, but that led to 1 target last week in a game they lost. He is a showdown slate guy. 

Tannehill is looking to his two big WRs, targeting them 35 times in their past two games. During that time, Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser saw 11 targets combined (6 for Smith). This offense likes to throw to the TE, so I don’t expect that to stay that low, but I also don’t want to invest heavily into Smith with Firsker in the mix. 

Core plays: David Montgomery, Derrick Henry, Corey Davis 

GPP only: Anthony Miller (He was limited in practice this week but doesn’t have a designation for the game. He is a good WR3 punt after leading the team in targets over his last two), Nick Foles/Allen Robinson, A.J. Brown 

DEN +3.5. O/U: 50
DEN: 23 | ATL: 27

Pace and playcalling

This is a solid pace matchup — Denver is sixth, Atlanta 10th in neutral script. That is a difference of only 0.5 seconds per play, so basically the same. They also pass at the exact same, 57% in neutral situations. 

Atlanta runs a lot of plays (fourth-most) and Denver has allowed their opponents to run a lot of plays. Another positive indicator for this game is Atlanta actually being good against the run, ranking eighth in rush and 28th in pass DVOA. That has pushed their opponents to the fifth-highest pass rate against. 

If Atlanta can get a lead, Denver goes to a 65% pass rate and play quickly. 

Since firing Dan Quinn, Atlanta has improved on both sides of the field. This has both the public and the percentage of money backing the Birds. Bettors also love the over, betting it up from 47 to 50 despite ATL giving up 21 points per game compared to 32.2 under Quinn. Check the charts below (the left is with Quinn, the right is since his firing)

Broncos

Drew Lock is in play at $5.2k (DK) and $7.2k (FD). It won’t be pretty and he doesn’t look great, but the price, matchup and situation is just too good (Atlanta has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to QBs). Atlanta has allowed at least 300 passing yards in every game this season except last week’s ugly Thursday rain game vs. Carolina, where Teddy Bridgewater only dropped back 23 times. 

Using our NFL Splits tool again, we see ATL is 3-1 to the OVER indoors and 1-3 to the UNDER outside. Lock has his best game as a pro in his only game inside in his career, the 27-fantasy-point game against the Texans last season. I expected him to be chalk, but early reports don’t look that way. If he stays at 4-5% as currently projected in our DFS ownership projections, I will have a lot of Lock. 

Another factor that has me bullish is the return of WR Tim Patrick. Patrick has been a legit threat on the outside as Courtland Sutton’s replacement. He has a solid athletic profile to play outside, at 6-foot-4 and 208 pounds. In his last full game, against Stephon Gilmore, he played 93.4% of snaps, posting 4-101-0 on 8 targets. At $5.3k on FD/$4.9k on DK, I will have a good amount in Lock stacks at sub-5%. 

Jerry Jeudy will have more ownership but should still come in under 10%. He has played 31.6% inside with Patrick out of the lineup (10% last week), assuming the role as the WR1 on the outside. With Patrick on the field, he has played 79.4% in the slot and 85% when both Patrick and K.J. Hamler have all been active. Atlanta allows 8 targets per game to slot WR, and 10.2 yards per target overall, including 39 catches of 20-plus yards (31st) and 20 TDs to WRs (last).

Hamler (68.4% in the slot, last two without Patrick) will go back to the Z-WR, opposite Patrick on three-WR sets, with Jeudy playing outside when they are in 12 personnel (32%).

Speaking of TEs, Noah Fant looked great last week, playing 78% of the snaps and getting nine targets (7-47-0). The Falcons are 29th in yards allowed per target to opposing tight ends (8.8 yards) and have allowed a league-high eight touchdowns to the position (19.1 fantasy points per game allowed on DK). With price factored in, he is my TE1 on the slate (projected at 10-15% ownership). 

His biggest risk is on his own team, with Albert Okwuegbunam collecting five end-zone targets over the past three weeks. Fant outsnapped him 51-16 last week, so this is not a committee situation. Okwuegbunam has just become a thing inside the red zone. Keep in mind, his two nice games were with Patrick OUT. 

The RB situation is a true committee. Melvin Gordon still outsnapped/out-touched Phillip Lindsay, despite Lindsay being a much better player this season (5.7 adjusted YPC, 6.4 YPC). Again, the Falcons are good against RBs, but they do allow production in the passing game (second-most RB catches allowed). Gordon is still the guy there, seeing 7 targets last week (6-21-0). All that said, if Lindsay continues to maximize his opportunities then Gordon is relegated to a touchdown-dependent RB2.

Falcons

On Friday, Falcons reporter Kelsey Conway tweeted: “Raheem Morris says Calvin Ridley is in a great spot, was hoping to see him practice today but won’t since they won’t be in the facility.” Ridley is the big factor when handicapping the Falcons this week. Looking at ownership, I think everyone is assuming he is out, but I think he plays. 

Denver CB A.J. Bouye is still in concussion protocol and presumed OUT. CB Bryce Callahan has been solid but plays inside and is also banged up. That means 5-10 Essang Bassey and Michael Ojemudia will get the task of covering Julio Jones and Ridley if he plays. Bassey was benched in Week 4, which is when Callahan was moved from the outside to the slot.

De’Vante Bausby was cut, so with Bouye out, Denver promoted CB Kevin Toliver from the practice squad. With Atlanta playing 64% of snaps with three-plus WRs on the field, Bassey is going to get playing time. 

Denver’s only chance is their sixth-ranked pressure rate, which is how you disrupt Matt Ryan (his passer rating rises by 35 points when clean). On DK, Lock is the play at $1.2k less, but FD has them very close in price, making the Ryan-Julio-Ridley-Fant stacks one of my favorites on that site. Jones is projected at 20% ownership, but Ryan only 5%. 

You can also put Patrick or Jeudy on that team for the full game stack. Ryan has thrown one or zero touchdown passes in five of his past six games (17th with 12 TD passes), but still leads the league with 307.8 passing yards per game. 

Denver is solid up front against the run and is second in allowing second-level yards. The Broncos also don’t miss tackles, a staple of a Vic Fangio defense we saw for years in Chicago. That has me off Todd Gurley, which is no shocker because I am not a Gurley guy at this point of his career. Brian Hill was used a lot more last week, so you are playing Gurley for the RZ/TD equity, something I am not a fan of. If he scores all the TDs again, I’ll take my L. 

Hayden Hurst has back-to-back games with 7 targets, three straight with at least 54 yards. He checks all the boxes for that $4k TE on DK in terms of usage, with a TD likely needed to be happy. Denver is on the plus side of the spectrum in TE coverage, so he is a Milly Maker type play along with Ryan. I just like the other plays so much more that I don’t see me playing him in anything other than 150 MME. If Ridley is out, he gets elevated to a top-five play. 

Core plays: Noah Fant, Drew Lock, Julio Jones, Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy 

GPP only: Calvin Ridley, Matt Ryan, Hayden Hurst 

HOU -7. O/U: 50
HOU: 28.5 | JAX: 21.5

Pace and playcalling

This game grades out as the worst of the week from a pure pace perspective. The Jaguars are 31st in neutral pace, and they get even slower if they get a lead (Jacksonville has played with a lead for the fewest snaps this season). That said, this game is appealing for a number of reasons.

As a TD underdog, “Jacksonville leading” is an unlikely script, so we see what they do when trailing. They go 5 seconds faster and pass at a 66% rate. Of course, that was with Gardner Minshew, and it is now Jake Luton SZN. 

Houston has passed a 63% neutral rate since firing Bill O’Brien (fifth-highest), which is only up 1% from their games under O’Brien. The pace is also similar, on the slower side of league average. 

I make fun of Houston for running too much on first down, but I fact-checked myself and that’s just wrong this year. Houston has rushed on 23.4% of first-down plays this season, after 31.19% last year. Only Cincinnati passes at a higher rate on first down, while Jacksonville is third. Houston and Jacksonville are 32nd and 31st, respectively, in rush attempts per game, which gives this one a chance, even with the slow pace. 

Looking further into the pass-happy Texans (weird), they have scored 90% of their TDs via the air in their last three games. They have also gained the most yards via the pass than any other team.

These teams have combined to allow the most red-zone opportunities this season, which has led to 62.4 combined points allowed per game. They are also 31st and 32nd in yards per drive allowed and 30th and 32nd in points per drive.

Texans

We rode Deshaun Watson into his bye week. It is frustrating with them always wasting a quarter, often a half, before turning it on and scoring fantasy points. In three games since O’Brien got the boot, Watson has posted lines of 359-3-2 (2-25-0), 335-4-0 (4-26-0) and 309-2-0 (7-38-0). 

The only thing standing in the way of Houston and another big game is gamescript. If Luton is bad and it gets out of hand, Watson may not get there. That appears to be the only thing in the way, with Jax 31st in adjusted sack rate, 30th in YPA, 31st in completion rate and a 107.6 passer rating allowed. 

David Johnson has a decent floor, but has had his ceiling capped for all the reasons listed in the pace and playcalling section. RBs have averaged a league-high 31.6 touches per game against Jacksonville and the fifth-most fantasy points per game, so the matchup is good. The projection models love this guy once again, so he is carrying a decent ownership projection (14% on DK, 15% on FD). I prefer to take my chances with the passing attack and have 5-6 backs ranked higher, so will be underweight on DJ once again.

When DK sends me that email with my favorite players from the 2020 season, Will Fuller is going to be my WR1. I think he is still primed for the slate-breaker game (38% of team air yards) he was famous for as the WR2 alongside DeAndre Hopkins, but while we wait we have gotten the WR19, averaging 6.7 targets per game (4.4 rec., 70 yards per game). What has carried him is 5 TDs, but there is no reason to think those regress with a 24% red-zone target share. At 2.34 FP per target, we just need him to get that 10-target game here and we could get our 30-fantasy-point game. 

Fuller and Brandin Cooks are projected at 10-12% ownership, same as Watson, making this three-man stack one of my favorites. Cooks has surpassed Fuller as the most targeted Texans WR, with his average of 10 per game in the last three bringing his season average to 7.3. He is not seeing as many red-zone targets/TDs, but otherwise is matching Fuller. He ripped this defense for 8-161-1 in Houston when they met in Week 5.

Watson has Randall Cobb, who has the best WR/CB matchup, facing Tre Herndon in the slot. Cobb has run 30-plus routes in each of his last two games, with a 10-target, 95-yard revenge game against the Packers before the break. He, Kenny Stills and (now) two TEs, Jordan Akins and Darren Fells, are all in the mix as potential trolls. Pharaoh Brown also stepped in during Akins’ absence, putting me off the Houston tight ends.

Jaguars

Jake Luton is a sixth-round pick from Oregon State. He was not overly impressive in his one year in college. He is a big dude (6-6), with a big arm, ranking in the 85th percentile in velocity at the combine. His college QBR and YPA were terrible and he doesn’t run. The matchup is great — Houston can’t rush the passer (27th), so he should have time to make some plays to his plethora of WRs. If you 20-max or more, I would toss in a Luton stack, but no issue if you just want to fade outright. 

That goes for all the WRs, if you MME, and you want to take a shot on a Luton-D.J. Chark–Laviska Shenault stack, so be it, but keep in mind we have no idea how he is going to distribute targets. Chark makes the most sense as the alpha, coming off 21 targets in his last two games. He has been vocal about the QB play, wanting to take more deep shots (33rd in 2020, 14th in 2019 in deep targets). He matched up with Bradley Roby in Week 5 and was held to 5-43-0 on 9 targets. 

Keelan Cole has also been in the mix in three-WR sets with Shenault and Chark, but Chris Conley and Chris Thompson will mix in for 20-40% of snaps. 

James Robinson is one of two backs with all his team’s goal-line touches. He also leads all RBs with 83.7% opportunity share, averaging 19.9 touches-plus-targets per game (his 28 in Week 7 was a season-high). We love this matchup for backs — Houston is 31st in adjusted line yards allowed and 32nd in open-field rank. They have allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to backs (6.5 receptions per game). There is a bit more risk to his ceiling with Chris Thompson back if Houston gets a big lead and Jacksonville abandons the run. 

Core plays: Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Deshaun Watson, James Robinson 

GPP only: Jake Luton/D.J. Chark stack

NYG +3. O/U: 41.5
NYG: 20 | WAS: 21.5

These teams are 31st and 32nd in points per drive and 31st and 30th in points per drive, making this the lowest total on the slate. There are some solid plays in it, but if you are a single-entry/three-max player, you will be fine crossing this game off. 

Giants

I have seen some “Daniel Jones has been good against the Football Team” takes, but this is not the same defense, so ignore that. Washington has the No. 4 DVOA, allowing the third-fewest yards per drive. They are top-10 in pressure rate, and that gets even better when Chase Young is on the field. Jones posted a laughable 112 passing yards in their previous meeting this season but had 74 rushing yards to mask the passing ineptitude. 

Wayne Gallman played 32 snaps last week, while Dion Lewis and Alfred Morris played 21 apiece. I said on our Fade the Chalk podcast I liked Gallman a bit, but the more I look into this situation, I won’t be using him in this committee and behind a bad O-line (32nd in adjusted line yards gained). 

I like Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton and Evan Engram as players. Those three guys tied to Russell Wilson or Kyler Murray would be all kinds of fun. But they aren’t, so they aren’t. Instead they are in a situation where limited red-zone opportunities, yards and third-down conversions cap their upside. Golden Tate was vocal about his lack of usage, so was remanded to the scout team, a huge disrespect to a vet like Tate, so I would not be surprised to see him out. That could move Shepard inside more, making him my preferred target of this group (18 targets in his last two). That said, this is the second-graded (by DVOA) pass defense and 32nd in fantasy points per game allowed to WRs, so again, you are fine crossing the wide receivers off. 

Engram does have some appeal due to his position and lowered price. Washington is ninth in TE points allowed, as they funnel targets away from WRs. He should be treated like the alpha and has over his last two games, seeing 10 and 8 targets. (5.5 rec., 51.5 yards). 

Football Team

Antonio Gibson seems like he is in another good spot, like he was when he rushed for 128 yards against the Cowboys. But the Giants have remained stout against the run (3.86 RB yards allowed per carry), and Washington has a below-average run-blocking line. We saw Gibson’s passing-game work dry up in the Washington win over Dallas in Week 7, their first victory in five games, so we can’t just pencil in those 4 receptions he averaged for his prior three games. If Washington were to control the game, we could be left with an empty 65 rushing yards.

Terry McLaurin saw a team-high 12 targets against James Bradberry and the Giants in Week 6, hauling in seven for 74 yards, with half of those coming with F1 in the slot (17% slot rate). 

McLaurin is a legit WR1 in terms of usage, averaging 9.9 targets a game (7th), which is 29.7% of his team’s targets (30% RZ). He has been targeted 11.5 times a game with Kyle Allen, who we know likes to lock on to his best option and feed him (see Christian McCaffrey last year). Bradberry isn’t Deion Sanders, but he has caused some difficulties for good WRs this season. Washington has moved McLaurin around quite a bit, so I have no doubt he can get off here, regardless of Bradberry. That said, he is not a top priority for me on the slate. 

Washington may activate Steven Sims, which would be a nice addition to this deleted group. Isaiah Wright should also be back after missing the Dallas game, who will go along with Cam Sims and newly signed Robert Foster (Dontrelle Inman is OUT). 

Core plays: Washington DST

GPP only: Evan Engram, Terry McLaurin, Sterling Shepard, Antonio Gibson 

SEA -3. O/U: 55
SEA: 28.5 | BUF: 26.5

Pace and playcalling

From one end of the spectrum to the other. This game comes in with the highest total on the slate. Both the public and the percentage of money still do not think it is high enough, betting the over at a 66% clip. 

Buffalo has had a split season, coming out of the gate with 30.75 PPG in the first four. Since then, that average has dropped to 18.75 PPG despite playing the Titans and Jets. Teams have been dropping back into zone coverage with nickel and dime coverages, forcing Josh Allen to be accurate, not his specialty. He does better against man coverage, which also allows him to rush more. Last week, New England gave the template, dropping back a bunch of defensive backs and encouraging them to run (Buffalo had 38 rush attempts, 28 by the RBs). 

Buffalo has the 13th-highest rush rate in neutral script but turns it up to 68% once down by at least 7. 

Seattle continues to push teams into the pass (lowest rush rate against) as a result of them scoring 34.3 PPG (first). They also allow the most plays per game to their opponents, which has led to their games averaging 62.7 PPG. 

Seattle has the second-highest pass rate in neutral situations (eighth overall) and play at the 11th-fastest pace (neutral). Buffalo is 24th in both points and yards per drive, so there is no reason to think the Seattle offensive show will slow down this week. Seattle has scored 30-plus points in seven of eight games. 

Seahawks

Russell Wilson has had so much written about him I won’t go too far, other than saying he has at least 2 TD passes in every game this season, and 10 TDs in his last three games. Wilson is getting us 37.1 rushing yards per game this season, up 15 yards per game this season. Keep getting in a Russ stack every week until further notice, but you don’t need to force him into cash. 

The dynamic duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett continue to be a main talking point for any DFS slate they are on. Everyone has declared this game “Lockett Week,” some by looking at game logs and some by examining the matchup. Buffalo is a slot funnel, with Tre’Davious White and Levi Wallace encouraging QBs to look inside. White is allowing the lowest target rate in coverage, which skews his fantasy-points-per-target number. White has not been shadowing this season, and does not travel into the slot, so they can get Metcalf free from the All Pro CB. 

There have been a couple notable slot performances against the Bills, including 7-115-1 to Jamison Crowder and 9-107-1 to Cooper Kupp, so the Lockett chalk makes sense. He will run most of his routes in the sweet spot of the defense as shown below via Sharp Football. The grid on the left is the Bills without White, the right side is with the CB in the lineup. Get Lockett in your cash-game lineups, and two of three of your three-max. Metcalf is my man, but I can’t pay his price on anything but he hasn’t made it into any lineup other than a Seattle/Wilson stack. 

Greg Olsen returned to full practice, making this a three-headed tight end committee and a situation to keep avoiding. 

Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde are OUT, making it DeeJay Dallas week, Part 2. Travis Homer was active last week, but apparently just on an emergency basis. Dallas played 79% of snaps, and handled 23-of-26 RB touches, posting 58 total yards and two touchdowns. He ran a ton of routes and got all the goal-line work, which is all you can ask for at his price. He will be very popular, so I will likely fade on two of three three-max teams. 

Bills

Josh Allen gets the matchup we have all attacked this season, with Seattle allowing the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Seattle gets Jamal Adams back, but is still very thin with Shaquill Griffin OUT. This is a matchup-based play, because Allen has not looked good as of late. Teams are dropping into zone coverages and forcing Allen to beat them. With Adams back and Seattle blitzing more last week (13th best pressure rate), I am not as high on Allen as the field and may even have a share of the Seahawks defense in large-field GPPs (Buffalo has averaged 1.4 giveaways per game, Seattle is first with 2.0 takeaways per game). 

All that said, I am going to hedge with a high-dollar team because Allen can run and score TDs on the ground. Seattle allowed Kyler Murray to run for 67 yards and a TD, Ryan Fitzpatrick 47 yards and a TD, Cam Newton 47 yards and 2 TDs. 

Stefon Diggs still has me tilting from the Jets game, but we need to go back to him in this spot, both as the No. 1 stack with Allen and runback to your Russell Wilson stacks. Per our advanced DvP tool, Seattle is allowing an eye-popping 35.8 FPPG to LWR and RWRs. Diggs moves around a bunch, lining up almost exactly 33% on the left, right and slot. 

Seattle is 31st in points per game allowed to opposing WR1 options (23.7) and are allowing a league-high 148 receiving yards per game to opposing outside WRs. 

You would think if a team allows that much production outside, it must take away the slot, but that is not the case with these Seahawks. They actually give up 21.8 fantasy points per game to the slot, the most of any team after allowing 168 yards on 11 receptions (14 targets). Diggs will run about 35% of his routes inside, which is another reason to like him. But the other WR we need to load up on is Cole Beasley, especially on FanDuel at $5.3k. Last week was a weird game in bad weather against a New England team that has no offense. In a game that is likely to shoot out, Beasley should see his targets spike. He already has three games with at least 6 catches and has matched DIggs with 6 red-zone targets this season. He has also gone over 100 yards twice. 

John Brown has seen his stock plummet as the season has progressed, but for all the reasons I wrote about Diggs you can apply to Brown from a matchup standpoint. He should only be used in large-field GPPs. Being that low-ownership/big-upside player that can help you gain some leverage if this game shoots out. 

Core plays: Tyler Lockett, Cole Beasley, Stefon Diggs, Russell Wilson, DeeJay Dallas (high ownership, but OK to put in GPP game stacks)

GPP only: Josh Allen, DK Metcalf, John Brown, David Moore (same logic applies as Brown, should avoid White more than Metcalf) 

DET +4.5. O/U: 50.5
DET: 23 | MIN: 27.5

Pace & Play-Calling 

This game has moved to 52.5 with Matt Stafford being cleared to play. These teams are VERY  script dependent, MINN is dead last in neutral pass rate, where they play at the 8th slowest pace. DET is top-3 in first-quarter scoring, so if MINN falls behind, they will throw it at a 65% rate and the 8th fastest pace. 

The other side of that is last week, where they passed at a 30.6% rate, the lowest of any team this season. The Vikes scheme has limited Kirk Cousins to 27 or fewer pass attempts in 5 games that led to 11.8 FPPG. 

DET is playing at a quick neural pace (6th) and passing at a league-average rate. If they fall behind by 7+, they crank it up to the 4th highest pass rate (70%) & 4th fastest pace. Their 78% pass rate for a team in a game this season. 

Seeing how dramatic these teams play when ahead or behind, you need to build your MINN/DET stacks with a certain script in mind and players that logically correlate. 

DET

Matthew Stafford was released from the NFL’s COVID jail, making this game more interesting for DFS. With Kenny Golladay OUT, we have three value plays on the Lions (receiving options). MINN has allowed the 5th most FP to QBs, ranked 18th in pass DVOA, allowing QBs to complete 68.14% of their passes for 8 YPA. 

MINN remains VERY thin in the secondary. CB Holton Hill (foot), CB Mark Fields II (chest), CB Cameron Dantzler (concussion) are all OUT. 

T.J. Hockenson has emerged with 5-59-1 and 7-65-0 the past two games. The 10 target game was the second of his career, playing 52% of his snaps in the slot, up from 36% from weeks 1-7. MINN has allowed the 4th most FP in the slot this season. Last week they allowed the INDY TEs to go for a combined 8-64-1, so is in another great spot for the young TE. 

Marvin Jones managed just 4-55-0 and 4-23-1 the first two weeks with Golladay out, seeing 18% of Stafford’s with his WR1 off of the field and 12% with. Stafford has always looked his way in the EZ (19.5% target share), and this matchup is about as good as it gets with all the injuries. MINN has allowed 27.9 FPPG to outside WRs, giving up 100+ yards to Kalif Raymond, Will Fuller, & Julio Jones. They also allowed DK Metcalf 6-93-2 and Davante 23-207-4 in two meetings.  

Marvin Hall played a season-high 69% of snaps last week and saw 7 targets (4-113-0). That was every snap after Golladay played 31%. He too should be able to exploit this secondary if the script favors the Lions passing attack. Again, if either team gets a big lead, they will shut down, and these Lions WRs could be blocking for Adrian Pederson more than running routes. 

Speaking of the RBs, Matt Patricia does not care about your DFS team. He continues to underutilize De’Andre Swift but there may be hope. His last three games have been 38%-45%-62%. Still, that has yielded 11 touches per game, so you are banking on the big HR as we saw in Jax. The story remains, if this game is a shoot out, Swift will be a good play, averaging 3.5 receptions per game in his last four, while Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson have combined for 1.5 receptions per game (MINN allows 6 RB rec. per game)

MINN

Dalvin Cook has a TD in every game, now leading the league with 11 after his explosion in GB. DET is allowing 4.69 adjusted line yards, which is an improvement from their early-season performance. That said, they are still 21st in rush DVOA, fresh off allowing 113 total yards to Jordan Wilkins, while also allowing 2-TD passes to Nyheim Hines.  DET has now allowed 12 TDs to RBs in their 7 games. He is a top-3 play, along with Edmunds and Conner. With his ownership up at 25-30% on Fanduel, and McCaffrey projected at less than 10%, I prefer CMC in GPPs by a good margin. It is not often you get to roster CMC as the contrarian move. 

Adam Thielen has three receptions in four of his past six games with 51 yards or fewer in four of those games. This is why we continue to fade with his ownership high. This week he is a leverage play to the Cook chalk, as (again) these teams are so script dependent if the Lions do get up and get MINN out of their extreme rush offense, Thielen will get the targets he needs to justify his high price tag. I get the logic, but you are banking on the one script playing out, and even then Cook can still catch passes and score the TDs. RBs also get lifted in high total games with the increase in RZ scoring opportunities. 

He has a legit WR2 to share the limited pass attempts, making this just like when Diggs was there. Justin Jefferson explodes when the script turns his way, posting three 100-yard games, but he has also had four games with 7 FP or less on DK. I keep thinking the Lions D is getting better, but then they allow 262 yards and 3-TD passes to an INDY team with very little WR talent. 

CORE: Cook, Hockenson, Marvin Hall 

GPP Only: Marvin Jones/Stafford, Jefferson, Thielen/Cousins 

LV +1.5. O/U: 52
LV: 26.5 | LAC: 27

Pace and playcalling

The Chargers are eighth in neutral pace after a bottom-10 finish in 2019. Las Vegas plays slow and runs at the fourth-highest rate, yet they are still 10th in plays per game due to a 51.09% third-down conversion rate (2nd). 

Both teams are bottom-seven in pass rate (neutral) but top-10 in plays per game (Chargers are second- most due to the pace). The Chargers are also ninth in third-down conversion rate. 

Las Vegas is third in yards per drive and 7thsevenin points per drive. They have scored on 55% of their possessions (first) and have seen five of seven games go over the total (and one of the unders was the Cleveland weather game last week). The Raiders are 32nd in points and 29th in yards per drive. 

Chargers games averaged a combined 33 points in their first three this season, 63.75 in their last four (most). 

Raiders

Derek Carr lands in a good spot given how fantasy-friendly the Chargers have become. He had 12 TD passes in five games prior to the bad-weather game last week. With this run of shootouts, Los Angeles is now fourth in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs. Carr also gets a bump by not having to deal with Joey Bosa (concussion) on the field for LA. 

Josh Jacobs is also in a good spot against a Chargers defense that has allowed 4.55 adjusted and 4.80 RB yards per carry. If you are expecting the 31 carries again, don’t. Los Angeles allows the fifth-fewest carries per game and the fourth-fewest in the last three. Since Jacobs’ 4 receptions in Week 1, he has not topped 3 catches in any game. 

Still, Jacobs is the big name to watch for the Raiders. While he is officially listed as questionable, the back is trending in a positive direction to end the week, participating in practice on Friday on a limited basis after missing Thursday’s session entirely. If Jacobs isn’t able to play or is limited in any way, that could open the door for Devontae Booker to see some extended carries. 

Darren Waller is one of the top plays on the slate, ranking above Kelce since he comes at a $1.6k discount on FD. He is top-three in just about every TE stat, including target share (27.5%), red-zone target share (33.3%), receptions per game (6.4) and yards per game (53.1). Even in the wind bowl last week, Waller managed five catches. Los Angeles has allowed a healthy 14.5 fantasy points per game to the position after 8-56-1 last week to the Denver tight ends. Waller is the Raiders player to use in Week 9. 

Chargers

Justin Jackson got 41 snaps and 20 touches last week. Now RB Troymaine Pope (concussion) is doubtful (25 snaps and 15 touches), putting this back to a two-headed committee, with Jackson’s arrow trending up. He has 6-6-5 targets in his last three games, assuming the Austin Ekeler role, with the rookie Joshua Kelley seeing lowest usage of the year last week. He will absorb some of those Pope carries, but Jackson is primed for another nice day at just $4.9k on DK and $5.9k on FD (sub-10% ownership). Las Vegas is allowing 149.7 total yards per game and eight rush TDs (T-third most rushing TDs allowed). 

Keenan Allen continues his torrid pace, seeing 64 targets in five full games with Herbert. Now he runs into Lamarcus Joyner, one of the worst slot CBs this season. Allen will be popular again, but with so many strong WR options, I don’t think it goes past 20-25%, which is the cutoff in GPPs for a WR. He and Justin Herbert are a top-three stack combo yet again.

Herbert is a stud, averaging over 300 passing yards and 2.5 TDs per game. He also gets 23.67 rush yards per game to get his 27 DK PPG. He is fourth with 5.5 deep pass attempts per game, which makes 

Mike Williams a solid hookup in GPPs. Twelve of Williams’ 33 targets this season have been 20-plus yards down the field, averaging 17.2 yards per target. His 91.5% snap share and 43 routes were both season highs last week. He has 8 targets in his last two games, leading to two top-10 finishes. However, one of those came in the game Allen left with an injury. Williams should see a lot of Nevin Lawson, who gives up seven inches to the big wideout. 

Hunter Henry hasn’t topped 40 yards or 4 receptions in four games. I would rather use Williams and Jackson in my Herbert stacks. 

Core plays: Keenan Allen, Darren Waller, Justin Herbert

GPP only: Justin Jackson, Mike Williams, Derek Carr/Darren Waller/Nelson Agholor

PIT -13.5. O/U: 41.5
PIT: 27.5 | DAL: 13.5

Steelers

The Pittsburgh DST is $4.9k on DK, which is (by far) the highest I have ever seen. Kudos to the game makers for making it a significant hit to your cap, as they really could put up 20 FP. They have 18 fantasy points in two of three on DK and now take on Ben DiNucci or (more likely) some other third-/fourth-stronger with a depleted OL. Pittsburgh leads the league in sacks (30) pressure rate (34.6%). 

Dallas is last this season with 2.2 giveaways. Pittsburgh gets 1.9 takeaways per game. They are $5k on FD, with the bigger cap makes them much easier over there. 

James Conner has feasted on bad rush Ds. He 149 total yards against the Texans, 102 total yards and a TD against the Browns and 111 total yards on 23 touches against the Titans. He has run into three tough matchups with Denver/Baltimore/Philadelphia and has scored a TD in all of them. The Cowboys have allowed six rushing touchdowns to backs over their past five games and the highest percentage of yards via the rush. If you are looking for a path for the fade, there may be no need for passing work if the game is a blowout, as we saw against Cleveland (1 catch for 1 yard). He could also get trolled by Benny Snell (2 TDs in three games). The last scenario is the defense scoring early and the offense scoring with Ben Roethlisberger passing TDs. With Conner’s track record of injuries, why would you run him out there in a blowout when you are 7-0 and on the way to the playoffs? If he were to only get 15-17 touches, not see any passing work and get shut out of the end zone, he will leave a lot of DFS owners unhappy at his high ownership. 

Because Dallas has put up no fight and can’t stop the run, opposing passers have just 28, 28 and 34 dropbacks against them the past three weeks. The last time Pittsburgh dominated a game was Week 6 against Cleveland, when Roethlisberger threw a season-low 22 pass attempts. He will likely get 200-225 yards and a couple scores and then will start handing it off. If Dallas were to somehow score enough to keep the Steelers passing, though, Ben would smash this matchup, I just think that is such an improbable scenario with the QB situation for the ‘Boys. The other reason I am going to fade the passing game on main lineups is Pittsburgh has all three WRs active plus Eric Ebron, who has finally started coming on (6-50-0, and 4-48-1 in his last two). With these lower-priced TEs, all we want is 3-4 catches and a TD, so I don’t mind using Ebron in this spot. 

Cowboys

Ezekiel Elliott could miss this game, which would put Tony Pollard as a viable punt RB play, hoping to rack up receptions after the game gets out of hand. I will update this when we get definitive news. 

Injuries 

• Cornerback Chidobe Awuzie is still questionable since he could be activated from the IR. 

Core plays: Pittsburgh DST (cash on FD, GPP on DK), James Conner

GPP only: Eric Ebron

MIA +3.5. O/U: 48.5
MIA: 23 | AZ: 26.5

Pace and playcalling

Arizona goes no-huddle at a league-high 43% (neutral, 37% overall), 24% higher than second-place Tennessee at 19%. Arizona also has the ninth-highest rush rate, with Kyler Murray averaging 11 attempts per game to go along with the backs. Their fast pace (first in neutral) leads to lots of plays, fifth-most for Arizona and the second-most for their opponents. 

Miami played at the third-fastest pace last week with Tua Tagovailoa under center. That’s quite a dramatic shift, as they were tied with three other teams with the second-slowest pace with Ryan Fitzpatrick as the QB. They played faster last week with a touchdown-plus lead (38 plays) than they did in neutral situations with Fitz. The script last week is why the shift in pace stands out even more. If that continues, this is the best pace game of the day. 

Dolphins

I am completely off the Miami offense here with Tua under center and all the passing options healthy. Tua passed for 93 yards last week in his debut, losing a fumble and throwing a TD pass. Even without Myles Gaskin and Matt Breida OUT, I have no interest in Jordan Howard. Some may look to Patrick Laird, but on a slate where I want to play 6-7 high-upside RBs, I can’t see myself using up a roster spot on Laird with Tua.

Cardinals

Chase Edmonds is currently projected fifth in ownership. I personally think the 15% projection is low and will move up as Sunday gets closer. I understand Dalvin Cook and James Conner being the ultra chalk, but Edmonds is my top RB on the slate (Miami is 32nd in run-defense DVOA). I am considering pushing the lock button on 150 LUs to let you know how much I like him in this spot without Kenyan Drake. I have this guy on just about every seasonal league, so this is a big day for my teams, with Miami allowing 5.06 adjusted line yards (30th, 29th in second level). Again, Arizona wants to run (ninth-best neutral rush rate), but even if the script goes against a heavy rush attack, Edmonds is the man in the passing game, with at least 6 targets in three of his last four games. We went after this matchup with Darrell Henderson last week and it was the right call — we can’t help a guy getting hurt. Even in a negative gamescript for the Rams and them losing their best back, they still put up 169 total RB yards against the Fins. 

Kyler Murray a top-five scorer in five of his seven games played and is the QB2 on the season behind Russell Wilson. Miami blitzes at the fourth-highest rate, which plays right into Murray’s strength by getting to the edge and scrambling (9.3 carries, 62.4 yards, 2.0 red-zone carries per game). His OL has also been great, ranking first in Player Profiler’s protection rate metric. Miami has played better than most anticipated in pass D, but we still need to run Murray out in GPPs. With Edmonds being in cash, he won’t make it into cash this week. A great leverage stack on the teams you fade Edmonds is the Murray/DeAndre Hopkins stack. 

Christian Kirk has topped 3 catches in only two games, using big plays and TDs to pay off in shootouts against Dallas and Seattle. 

Core plays: Chase Edmonds, Arizona DST

GPP only: Kyler Murray/DeAndre Hopkins/Edmonds stack 

SUNDAY AM UPDATE

Top Stacks: 

SEA/BUF – Full game stack 

OAK/LAC – Love Waller 

DEN/ATL Jeudy (DK) – Patrick (FD), but stacking them on both 

CAR/KC – (Mahomes – DRob for value – CMC – Hill – Kelce)

Core (FD): Lock – Cook – Chase – Lockett – Beasley – Hurst – Steelers 

Core (DK): Chase – Jackson – Lockett – Julio  – Keenan Allen in the FLEX. We can swap to Conner if he is ruled out, or just play him if you prefer – Punt DST 

The guys I have a lot of not in the CASH CORE (3-Max + SE)

FANT (I have a lot of Fant)

DeeJay Dallas as an FD punt 

Herbert/Waller/Mike Williams (stacking this game)

WATSON/COOKS/FULLER/CHARK STACK 

Underweight – Nuk – Henry – Marvin Jones – Thielen – F1 – DK 

Low(er) owned one-offs: Hollywood, Marvin Hall, Jefferson, Dobbins, Pascal (moved him up since I wrote the article), Hardman, Robby A