SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 18

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview, recommended plays at each position as well as some GPP game stacks and best secondary correlations.

Week 17 Recap

Here is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s largest GPP, the Red Zone, alongside the winning lineup from the $100 Gunslinger GPP.

Big shout out to SuperDraft stud darcmaniluk who won the Red Zone GPP for the second consecutive week. Darc correctly employed the Joe Burrow double-stack with a sub-5% Ja’Marr Chase smash and a bringback of Darrel Williams. Mixing in 1.55x Devin Singletary and 1.7x Braxton Berrios for over 35 SD points each helped him take down the $20,000 prize. Most impressive is his 278.53 team points was 17 more than second place (AllyBourne), which is the widest margin of victory in the Red Zone this season. Ironically, Ally was the Red Zone GPP winner back in Week 15.

The Gunslinger winner (Blaze252) needed just 222.74 points and the lineup did not include a pairing partner for QB Trey Lance. Lions’ rookie wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown shined once again, producing a whopping 46.76 SD points at his 1.4x multiplier.

Mixed results for my column last week. I correctly called the A.J. Brown and Tee Higgins fades as well as nailing low-percentage smash efforts from running backs Rashaad Penny and D’Onta Foreman. Tyler Lockett was another low-percentage gut play who did all right, but it was his teammate DK Metcalf (9-6-63-3) who was the Seattle receiver to roster in Week 17. Sadly, I did not give enough love to the CIN-KC stack, instead, was sadly disappointed by my two primary stacks (ARI-DAL, BAL-LAR). We’ve got one more week with a full slate to win some big money.

Here are the week-by-week stats of Red Zone GPP winners this season:

Here are the GPP contests to consider entering this week:

Week 18 Preview

We get 13 games on this final main slate of the 2021-22 season. Several of the games involve strong playoff implications, with the most notable ones where both teams are playing for something including the San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams and the Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers. The Tennessee Titans have to beat the Houston Texans to clinch the No. 1 seed and a bye. The Indianapolis Colts need to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars to clinch a playoff spot. If the Colts lose and the Steelers can beat the Ravens, the Steelers will get in. The Seattle Seahawks will look to play spoiler to the Arizona Cardinals who could improve their playoff seed with a win. That contest is expected to be a fast-paced affair with the highest Vegas total on the slate (48). 

Some of the games with little or nothing to play for: Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings, Washington Football Team vs. New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions. The Packers have already clinched a No. 1 seed and first-round bye, so their offensive studs won’t play the whole game. But Aaron Rodgers has an incentive clause to reach, so we should at least see a bit of him out there. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have already clinched their division and head coach Bruce Arians claims he’ll play his starters. It’s a similar case as Green Bay where there are some incentives to reach (Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski). And Tampa wideout Mike Evans needs another 54 receiving yards for his eighth consecutive 1,000-yard season.

Stack-wise, SEA-ARI and SF-LAR are the two most intriguing, and they’ll be popular across the industry. Lastly, the Buffalo Bills have to beat the New York Jets in order to clinch the AFC East and get a home game in the first round. The Bills are 17-point favorites and should take this one easily, but quarterback Josh Allen has struggled in poor weather games this season and the game environment likely won’t be pretty in this one. His teammate Stefon Diggs has a couple of statistical milestones he will want to hit in order to get some more money. More on that later.

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Quarterbacks

Low Multipliers

• Josh Allen (1x), Buffalo Bills
• Kyler Murray (1.1x), Arizona Cardinals
• Matthew Stafford (1.2x), Los Angeles Rams

Just about anywhere you look (including our FTN Optimizer), Josh Allen has the highest base points projection. Last week was an odd one for him with just 120 passing yards, no touchdown passes and three interceptions, but he did drop a massive 15-81-2 rushing line. He went 366-2-1 (23.94 base points) against the Jets earlier this season. The primary concern with Allen is his base multiplier on a slate where there will be several high-multiplier options. Kyler Murray is in a must-win spot against a mediocre Seattle defense, with solid rushing floor and a slight points bonus (10%) over Allen. It’s close, but I lean Kyler because I do think the Seahawks make it a competitive contest. Matthew Stafford has really stunk of late – five interceptions in his last two games. The Niners are slightly easier to pass on than run on and we know Stafford will be gunning for his breakfast buddy Cooper Kupp to set some records. I’m willing to go back to the well with a Stafford-Kupp combo in the season finale.

Mid-Range Multipliers

• Russell Wilson (1.25x), Seattle Seahawks
• Taysom Hill (1.3x), New Orleans Saints
• Tyler Huntley (1.45x), Baltimore Ravens – if Lamar Jackson confirmed out

Hard to not to consider Taysom Hill in all types of SuperDraft contests because of the opportunities he provides with rushing stats. Hill has at least 11 rush attempts in each of his four starts this season. In two games against a similar Falcons defense last season, Hill put up 24.22 and 23.58 base points. We have to hope he throws a passing score or two just in case Alvin Kamara vultures the rushing scores for the Saints. Russell Wilson could be playing his last game as a Seahawk. Well, either him or head coach Pete Carroll. Either way, I’d expect him to go out with a bang. We should all be heavily interested and invested in both sides of this stack against the Cardinals.

High Multipliers

• Andy Dalton (1.6x), Chicago Bears
• Brandon Allen (2x), Cincinnati Bengals
• Case Keenum (1.8x), Cleveland Browns
• Ben Roethlisberger (1.55x), Pittsburgh Steelers – End of the Big Ben Era: Smash?

There’s nothing for either the Bears or Vikings to play for but pride and some stats. With Justin Fields likely out, veteran Andy Dalton will draw the start against a Minnesota defense allowing the fifth-most SuperDraft points per game (21.3) to opposing quarterbacks this season. Brandon Allen (CIN) and Case Keenum (CLE) will play in the Back-Up Bowl with a super-low Vegas total (dropped from 46 at open to 38 currently). Though the Bengals are implied for a measly 16 real-life points, it would be foolish to disregard a full 100% bonus on a quarterback throwing to the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Though the Browns are implied for 22 points, they are much more of a run-heavy team and we’ll likely see them lean more on Nick Chubb. But this is a sneaky, under-the-radar game that should get more love the DFS masses will give it.

Favorite Plays: Kyler Murray, Taysom Hill, Russell Wilson, Brandon Allen
Low-Percentage Gut Play: Andy Dalton

Running Backs

Low Multipliers

• Jonathan Taylor (1x), Indianapolis Colts
• Dalvin Cook (1.1x), Minnesota Vikings
• Alvin Kamara (1.1x), New Orleans Saints

Fantasy’s king of runners hopes to end his regular season with a bang as he looks to become the eighth running back to ever run for 2,000 yards. Granted, there’s an extra game in the schedule this season, and it’s possible the Colts preserve him for the playoffs in the final quarter if Sunday’s game is in hand early. He would need 266 rushing yards to accomplish the feat. He has topped 170 yards on the ground three times this season, though. He will easily be more popular than both Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara among SuperDrafters Sunday, but there is once again merit to consider the other two studs as well. If you are considering these low-multiplier workhorses for lineups, I’d highly recommend not playing two of them in the same lineup. Better to mix up one of them with running backs at higher multipliers. 

Mid-Range Multipliers

• Devin Singletary (1.4x), Buffalo Bills
• D’Onta Foreman (1.45x), Tennessee Titans
• AJ Dillon (1.45x), Green Bay Packers
• Sony Michel (1.3x), Los Angeles Rams
• Rhamondre Stevenson (1.4x), New England Patriots

Funny when we think back to season-long drafts when Zack Moss had a higher ADP than Devin Singletary. Singletary has become a bell-cow over the past month and has four rushing scores in his last three games. A matchup with the Jets as 17-point favorites is perfect on paper as they are dead last in rushing scores allowed (27) and RB SuperDraft points per game against (30.7). It’s the wild world of fantasy so it could end up not working out for him, of course. That would be the case if he doesn’t get into the box and the bulk of Buffalo’s scoring is through Josh Allen. 

I’m back on the D’Onta Foreman train. He has stepped in admirably for King Derrick Henry. Foreman not only gets the gorgeous matchup against a porous Texans’ run defense, but he’s hit the 100-yard rushing bonus three times in his five games. The key here is that Henry is not quite ready and doesn’t suit up. Otherwise, Foreman won’t come close to making my core. AJ Dillon is more of a deep GPP play because he too can give way to rookie Patrick Taylor should Green Bay get off to a big lead and let the kid play. I’d keep close tabs on any news clips there to get a better handle on the situation. Sony Michel really does seem matchup proof and needs to be in consideration for lineups each and every week.

Rhamondre Stevenson will end up very chalky if for some reason Damien Harris (hamstring) misses the game or is limited in preparation for the playoffs. Harris has had a couple of limited practices, so signs point to him playing. But my gut feel is that he takes a backseat to the rookie in this contest. Possibly a great GPP play.

High Multipliers

• Samaje Perine (1.8x), Cincinnati Bengals
• Rex Burkhead (1.7x), Houston Texans
• Ke’Shawn Vaughn (1.75x), Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Patrick Taylor (2x), Green Bay Packers

Samaje Perine should be the uber-chalk with Joe Mixon not suiting up Sunday. His matchup against Cleveland is far from ideal but with backup Brandon Allen starting, we should expect heavy usage from Perine. He has been solid – both as a runner and pass-catcher – in the time that Mixon has missed this season. At 1.8x, he’s a tough one to avoid. Rex Burkhead would make $125,000 if he hits 103 total yards on Sunday. He’s been on GPP-winning lineups the last two weeks and his multiplier remains high. Ke’Shawn Vaughn is my sneaky guy as I’m not sure Ronald Jones will even play Sunday. We almost hope Jones is active so we can take advantage of a 1.75x Vaughn at sub-10% roster rate.

Favorite Plays: Samaje Perine, Jonathan Taylor, Devin Singletary, possibly Patrick Taylor
Low-Percentage Gut Plays: Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Rhamondre Stevenson

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Wide Receivers

Low Multipliers

• Cooper Kupp (1x), Los Angeles Rams
• Justin Jefferson (1.15x), Minnesota Vikings
• Stefon Diggs (1.2x), Buffalo Bills
• Amon-Ra St. Brown (1.2x), Detroit Lions
• Deebo Samuel (1.1x), San Francisco 49ers

It’s all about the record even though Cooper Kupp has downplayed since this season is the first one with 17 games. Nevertheless, Kupp needs 12 catches and 126 receiving yards to break those two single-season records. He’s also 171 yards away from 2,000. Justin Jefferson will be a popular play and is also a massive mismatch for Bears’ corners. He managed a mediocre 4-47-1 line on 10 targets against them a few weeks ago. Stefon Diggs needs six receptions to earn 1.55M, which is much more likely than 231 receiving yards he needs to earn another 1.55M. Either way, expect Josh Allen to be targeting him heavily and often. It’s enough for me to consider Diggs as a stand-alone in my primary lineup build.

Mid-Range Multipliers

• A.J. Brown (1.3x), Tennessee Titans
• Jaylen Waddle (1.4x), Miami Dolphins
• Darnell Mooney (1.45x), Chicago Bears
• Tyler Lockett (1.3x), Seattle Seahawks
• Christian Kirk (1.4x), Arizona Cardinals
• Brandin Cooks (1.35x), Houston Texans
• Marquise Brown (1.4x), Baltimore Ravens
• Jarvis Landry (1.55x), Cleveland Browns
• Chase Claypool (1.45x), Pittsburgh Steelers – moves up if Diontae Johnson confirmed out

Not many expect TEN-HOU to be some kind of barnburner with both offenses generally playing at slow paces this season. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t consider alpha dog A.J. Brown at a great multiplier coming off a forgettable week. In fact, it seems like in the weeks he is forgotten about is when he’s a splendid play. He’s just two weeks removed from a 11-145-1 line on 16 targets. Jaylen Waddle is one reception shy of 100, 12 receiving yards shy of 1,000 and needs three more catches for the single-season rookie record. The Patriots will attempt to do what they do best – which is to take out the opposing team’s best player. This may limit his upside but hard to exclude him from player pools given the projected targets and likely game script where Miami should be playing from behind. Darnell Mooney still has a mighty fine multiplier after a week where he displayed his rapport with Dalton, hitting on a 7-69-1 line on 13 targets. Hard to imagine the Bears being able to compete in this game by just running the ball with David Montgomery. Big fan of Mooney on this final weekend. Christian Kirk has been Kyler’s guy of late, seeing at least nine targets in three consecutive games. Teammate A.J. Green might be the more popular target because of incentives. He needs 10 catches for $250k and 75 receiving yards for another quarter mil. The lower roster rate on the better Arizona wideout (Kirk) is enough for me to make more Kyler lineups with him than with Green.

High Multipliers

• Gabriel Davis (1.75x), Buffalo Bills
• Breshad Perriman (1.7x), Cyril Grayson (2x), Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Marquez Callaway (1.65x), New Orleans Saints
• Laquon Treadwell (1.7x), Jacksonville Jaguars
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling (1.7x), Green Bay Packers
• Ray-Ray McCloud (1.95x), Pittsburgh Steelers

With a 75% bonus and a matchup with the Jets, expect Gabriel Davis to see roster rates of at least 20% in the Red Zone GPP. It feels tough to pass up but then, how do we build? Do we exclude Devin Singletary in arguably the best matchup on the slate or ignore an incentive-driven Stefon Diggs? Or do we just load it up with all of them and Allen? I don’t have the answer but do know I’ll want exposure to all of them if making five or more lineups. What I’m pretty sure I won’t be doing is playing Allen and Singletary in the same lineup but would consider mixing and matching any other combo.

I don’t feel great about either of these Tampa wideouts outside of MME builds, but the prices are tempting. We do know that Tom Brady has a couple bonuses to hit that can earn him another million, that Evans has a small milestone and Rob Gronkowski will likely be his primary target. Gronk can earn 500k for seven catches, 500k for 85 yards and three scores for another 500k. I do want to be careful building lineups based simply on player bonuses and incentives, but it is a driving factor in final-week decision-making. If Diontae Johnson (COVID-19) sits, I’d be interested in playing some Ray-Ray McCloud at that 1.95x tag. He has yet to find the end zone as a receiver this season but feels due. He’s seen a whopping 18 targets in his last two games.

Favorite Plays: Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Darnell Mooney, Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis
Low-Percentage Gut Plays: A.J. Brown, Ray-Ray McCloud

Tight Ends

Low Multipliers

• Mark Andrews (1x), Baltimore Ravens
• Rob Gronkowski (1.1x), Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• George Kittle (1.15x), San Francisco 49ers

The last time Mark Andrews had a subpar outing was five weeks ago when he faced the Steelers. He did see nine targets (two in the red zone) and caught four for 50 yards. His recent stretch means he will find his way into many lineups this week and it would be unwise to exclude this season’s TE1 entirely. I do have a slight preference for Gronk because I do think he and Brady put on a clinic for a few quarters. 

Mid-Range Multipliers

• Pat Freiermuth (1.55x), Pittsburgh Steelers
• Dawson Knox (1.35x), Buffalo Bills
• Zach Ertz (1.35x), Arizona Cardinals
• Cole Kmet (1.55x), Chicago Bears
• Kyle Pitts (1.35x), Atlanta Falcons

If Diontae Johnson misses the game, I’d be very interested in stud rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth at a 55% bonus. Likely more targets headed his way, especially in the red zone (eight RZ targets in his last five games). This PIT-BAL game looks like a slog-fest on paper but there are a few pieces I’d be interested in here. In case the Bills targets I’ve already named weren’t appealing enough, how about Dawson Knox with a similar scoring bonus and looking for his 10th touchdown reception of the season. Knox laid a goose egg last week (2-0-0-0) but that should have no impact on lineup consideration this week. There’s good reason to involve him in BUF stacks and even play him over Davis. Cole Kmet has no touchdowns despite a decent season, and something tells me Dalton will be looking his way this week. Going on record by predicting a touchdown reception for Mr. Kmet this Sunday. 

High Multipliers

• John Bates (1.75x), Washington Football Team
• Mo Alie-Cox (1.8x), Indianapolis Colts

Not much to get enthused about on the high end with the tight ends but Washington’s John Bates has out-snapped fellow tight end Ricky Seals-Jones 98 to 38 over the last two weeks. He’s the one guy I’d consider from this putrid WAS-NYG game. Mo Alie-Cox hasn’t found paydirt since Week 7 but did see five targets in Jack Doyle’s absence last week. If Doyle doesn’t practice Friday, I’ll take it as a sign that he won’t play and will include MAC in my MME player pool.

Favorite Plays: Rob Gronkowski, Dawson Knox, Pat Freiermuth, Mark Andrews
Low-Percentage Gut Plays: John Bates, Cole Kmet

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Favorite Game Stacks

1. SEA vs. ARI (preferred: Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk, Tyler Lockett)
2. BUF onslaught (preferred: Stefon Diggs, Dawson Knox)
3. SF vs. LAR (preferred: Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford)
4. CHI vs. MIN (preferred: Andy Dalton, Darnell Mooney, Justin Jefferson)
5. PIT vs. BAL (preferred: Ben Roethlisberger, Marquise Brown, 2 of Claypool/Freiermuth/McCloud)

Favorite Secondary Correlations

1. Darnell Mooney (CHI) + Justin Jefferson (MIN)
2. Mark Andrews (BAL) + Ray-Ray McCloud (PIT)
3. Pat Freiermuth (PIT) + Marquise Brown (BAL)
4. Stefon Diggs (BUF) + Devin Singletary (BUF)
5. Christian Kirk (ARI) + Tyler Lockett (SEA)
6. A.J. Brown (TEN) + Brandin Cooks (HOU)
7. Samaje Perine (CIN) + Jarvis Landry (CLE)
8. Jonathan Taylor (IND) + Laquon Treadwell (JAX)
9. AJ Dillon or Patrick Taylor (GB) + Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET)
10. Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) + Jaylen Waddle (MIA)

I’ll see you Sunday morning at 11 a.m. ET as I join host Zac Graham for the SuperDraft Sunday Study livestream. I’ll post an update Saturday night as well after more injury news comes out.