2025 FTN MLB Power Rankings, May 12: Surprise Teams Near the Top and Bottom

Sort the MLB standings by overall winning percentage, and the top seven features six teams most people would have projected to be up there, plus the Giants. Meanwhile the bottom seven features six teams most would have guessed, plus the Orioles.

Translation: Even as everyone gets better and better at guessing what might happen, there are surprises all the time. Our FTN MLB Power Rankings can help sort out the confusion. Below are all 30 teams in this week’s power rankings, 1-30. Check them out as we figure out the season.

Fantasy Baseball Power Rankings (5/12)

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (Last Week: 1)

27-14, 94.3 projected wins

Because of his early-season injury, Freddie Freeman doesn’t have enough plate appearances to qualify among the league leaders yet, but if he did, he’d be second in batting average, third in on-base percentage and second in slugging. Even at 35, he’s one of the league’s elite hitters.

2. Seattle Mariners (Last Week: 2)

22-17, 91.3 projected wins

The Mariners have lost five of seven coming off a six-game winning streak. They’ve been 1-2, 2-4, 4-7, then 14-11, 20-12 and now 22-17. This team can’t figure out what it is.

3. Philadelphia Phillies (Last Week: 7)

24-16, 91.1 projected wins

Zack Wheeler — 34 years old, 11-year veteran, two-time top-two Cy Young finisher, one of the best pitchers of this generation — currently has his career-best WHIP (0.914) and xFIP (2.58). That’s pretty remarkable.

4. New York Yankees (Last Week: 13)

23-17, 89.5 projected wins

Jasson Domínguez notched a three-homer game Friday, by itself taking his OPS from .693 to .802. If he can get it going, that will really round out the Yankees lineup.

5. Atlanta Braves (Last Week: 4)

19-21, 89.2 projected wins

The Braves have gotten to 12-14, 14-15, 17-18, 18-19 and 19-20, but they haven’t been able to crack .500 yet. Maybe playing Washington in seven of their next 10 will help that.

6. New York Mets (Last Week: 6)

26-15, 89.2 projected wins

After flipping his strikeout and walk rates on their heads through April, the K’s have started to creep back up on Pete Alonso — he has 15 strikeouts against 3 walks in 10 games in May. He can still be a superstar hitter even with big K numbers, but it’s not as dramatic as his early season was.

7. San Diego Padres (Last Week: 5)

25-14, 89.0 projected wins

You’d assume Dylan Cease will get things turned around, and with Yu Darvish nearing his return as well, the Padres could boast a top-flight starting rotation across the second half.

8. St. Louis Cardinals (Last Week: 14)

22-19, 87.3 projected wins

We bumped the Cards up from 21-14 last week, and they haven’t lost since. The team is surging right now.

9. Detroit Tigers (Last Week: 3)

26-15, 87.1 projected wins

Tarik Skubal allowed 7 runs in 10.2 innings in his first two starts of the year, both losses. Since? He’s 4-0 in six games, with 4 runs allowed in 37 innings for a 0.97 ERA. He’s working on a second straight Cy Young.

10. Arizona Diamondbacks (Last Week: 10)

21-20, 86.0 projected wins

Jordan Lawlar, off to a huge start in Triple-A at .336/.413/.579 though 37 games, was called up Monday morning. It’s not clear where his playing time will come from, given the presence of Geraldo Perdomo, Ketel Marte, Pavin Smith and Eugenio Suárez, who are all hitting well, but Torey Lovullo said they would find use for Lawlar. A good problem to have is still a problem, but maybe someone will see more time in left field, where Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is off to a terrible start.

11. San Francisco Giants (Last Week: 12)

24-17, 85.7 projected wins

Even if he was never a star-star hitter, LaMonte Wade Jr. was always safe for a good OBP buoyed by a good walk rate and a good-enough batting average. But that has vanished this year, with a career-low OBP (.246) and his lowest walk rate in three years. His barrel rate is down to a paltry 3.6%, and his hard-hit rate is a career-low 28.9%. Something’s gotta give.

12. Cleveland Guardians (Last Week: 9)

23-17, 85.7 projected wins

Since his ERA ballooned to 7.84 April 20, Emmanuel Clase has allowed 1 run in 7 innings, with six out of seven scoreless outings. His struggles might have been a first-month blip.

13. Kansas City Royals (Last Week: 17)

24-18, 84.2 projected wins

The Royals lost six in a row to April 14-19. In their defense, it was to the Yankees and Tigers, two of the AL’s best teams. And since then, they’ve got 16-4, including win streaks of seven and eight games. Two straight losses to close the weekend is deflating, but the team is riding high.

14. Houston Astros (Last Week: 16)

20-19, 83.4 projected wins

Hunter Brown is off to a blazing start to the season, but the rest of this starting rotation has been very ho-hum so far. Given the Astros’ struggles on offense, the pitching needs to improve. (The bullpen is still crushing it, though.)

15. Chicago Cubs (Last Week: 11)

23-18, 83.1 projected wins

Not that power has ever been a big part of their games, but Nico Hoerner and the Marlins’ Xavier Edwards are the last two qualified hitters without a home run this year. Hoerner had 29 in 2,124 career PAs before this year, Edwards 1 in 387.

16. Boston Red Sox (Last Week: 8)

22-20, 82.9 projected wins

The Red Sox not having Rafael Devers get some first-base work in spring training, especially given their lack of depth behind Triston Casas, looks especially dumb now. It’s not surprising a player would bristle at being jerked around like this.

17. Tampa Bay Rays (Last Week: 15)

18-22, 81.6 projected wins

Chandler Simpson is so exciting, but it’s going to be hard to justify a .260/.295/.301 slash line, even if he can steal second base almost every time. Billy Hamilton was so exciting, too. (It’s early, to be fair.)

18. Texas Rangers (Last Week: 18)

20-21, 81.3 projected wins

Evan Carter is hitting .273 with a .409 slugging in six games since his recall. Joc Pederson has a .360 OBP and .452 SLG since ending his miserable ofer streak. Corey Seager has 2 homers and 2 doubles (and a .696 SLG) in five games since returning from the IL. Is the offense figuring things out?

19. Minnesota Twins (Last Week: 21)

21-20, 81.1 projected wins

The Twins were flailing a week and a half ago, 13-20 and looking like potential sellers. Eight straight wins later, they’re over .500 and a half-game out of the Wild Card.

20. Toronto Blue Jays (Last Week: 19)

20-20, 80.3 projected wins

After striking out on big names in free agency for a few years now, the Blue Jays splurged on Anthony Santander late this offseason, and he’s done very little. His barrel rate was at least 7.4% each of his last six years in Baltimore, but it’s 4.6% now.

21. Cincinnati Reds (Last Week: 20)

20-22, 77.0 projected wins

Elly De La Cruz’ falloff is interesting. His strikeout rate, walk rate, BABIP, hard-hit rate, barrel rate are all basically within line with his numbers a year ago, yet his OPS is down over 100 points, his wRC+ down to 90 from 118. The sign of concern? His launch angle, which after spiking from 3.6 to 9.7 last year is down to 3.5. That explains why his ISO is in the tank. For a  Reds team getting not much from several offensive positions, De La Cruz really needs to get right.

22. Sacramento Athletics (Last Week: 23)

21-20, 75.8 projected wins

Brent Rooker’s breakout hasn’t lived quite up to last year’s, but he’s still boasting a more-than-acceptable 123 OPS+. Lawrence Butler might be a concern, though — after .262/.317/.490 last year, he’s down to .234/.298/.396 so far this season.

23. Los Angeles Angels (Last Week: 22)

16-23, 75.7 projected wins

I have nothing to add.

24. Washington Nationals (Last Week: 28)

17-24, 75.1 projected wins

Kyle Finnegan, who was a free agent available to anyone until Feb. 25, has saved 12 of the Nationals’ 17 wins this year. His 2.50 FIP is one of the best among regular relievers.

25. Baltimore Orioles (Last Week: 24)

15-24, 74.2 projected wins

Gunnar Henderson has followed his .228/.268/.413 April with a nice .351/.400/.622 in nine May games, getting his overall numbers more respectable. Now he needs to talk to a lot of the rest of the lineup.

26. Milwaukee Brewers (Last Week: 25)

20-21, 73.7 projected wins

Part of the reason the Brewers were willing to let Willy Adames walk last offseason (in addition to, you know, Adames being really expensive) was the promise of Joey Ortiz sliding into the shortstop role. But he’s off to a miserable start this year, hitting .176/.233/228 and amassing -1.1 bWAR.

27. Miami Marlins (Last Week: 27)

15-24, 72.3 projected wins

The Marlins lost a series to the White Sox over the weekend. I think you have to be relegated if that happens.

28. Pittsburgh Pirates (Last Week: 26)

14-27, 72.1 projected wins

“Let’s refuse to spend money, not get insurance for our young pitchers’ health, never give him a decent roster to work with, and then fire our manager when things start poorly. If a guy can’t win with Skenes and nothing else, he’s not the guy for me. Yeah, that’s the ticket.”

29. Chicago White Sox (Last Week: 29)

12-29, 58.3 projected wins

Cam Booser got the save Sunday, the second for the White Sox this season, first that didn’t come from the seventh inning of a rain-shortened game. This is a team without a closer.

30. Colorado Rockies (Last Week: 30)

7-33, 54.1 projected wins

The Rockies’ run differential right now is -128. Only four teams had worse than that over a full 162 games last year. Five in 2023, seven in 2022. The simple fact that these are big-league players in Coors says the team should see some regression to improve on their .175 winning percentage, but this could be a legendarily bad season.

Check out our full rankings below: