NBA Game of the Day, 2/12: Warriors vs. Mavericks
Alex Christenson
As Spring Training gets going in earnest around Major League Baseball, the last of the big free agent dominos fell this week. There will be no Boras Four in 2025, with the most noteworthy of available options signed. With that in mind, it’s time to take a look at the landing spots this offseason to see what it means for the players, what it means for the teams and what it means for us.
The signing of Alex Bregman was announced late Wednesday night. Pulling back the curtain, I had everything that follows in this space written, done and ready to publish, including a sidebar about Bregman still being available. So I’m using this space to vent about baseball in general and the Red Sox specifically not caring about me at all. Mean, guys.
(Only players changing teams below. Congratulations to guys like Pete Alonso and Nathan Eovaldi, but we more or less know how you fit on your teams, since we’ve seen it already.)
Old Faces, New Places: 2025 Fantasy Baseball
Hitters
Juan Soto, OF, New York Mets
Previous team: Yankees
Soto signed for the biggest deal in MLB history, more than double the third-biggest deal. Had Shohei Ohtani not signed for a heavily deferred $700 million a year ago, it’s unlikely Soto gets $765 million this offseason, but hey, timing’s everything, and having someone as rich as Steve Cohen wanting your services is a good situation to find yourself in.
Soto is a DH who still has to have a glove, especially with the Mets retaining Pete Alonso. Alonso at first, Mark Vientos at third, Jesse Winker probably the primary DH … Soto’s going to have to try his level best in right field for at least another year. (There isn’t even room for Brett Baty, and the fact that he’s still in New York is amazing.) But the defensive drawbacks are more than offset by what he offers on offense, and with the top of the lineup featuring, in some order, Soto, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo, Alonso could do some serious RBI damage in 2025. We’re talking “flirting with Hack Wilson” numbers.
Kyle Tucker, OF, Chicago Cubs
Previous team: Astros
Tucker had his best season in 2024 on a rate basis, though a shin injury limited him to 78 games. If he can repeat that over a full season in Chicago, he’ll be an MVP candidate, although there’s at least some concern in the move from Houston (top-10 in park factors for lefties) to Chicago (middle of the road). Still, raw home runs (the main thing Wrigley suppresses these days) aren’t the base of Tucker’s offensive skill set, so he might be immune to the drawbacks, and Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch would reap the rewards.
Anthony Santander, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Previous team: Orioles
The Blue Jays found themselves at a crossroads around the new year. They kept missing out on the biggest free agents, and there was more than an argument for them starting the rebuild, dealing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and maybe Bo Bichette, and trying to figure out their next iteration. Instead they tossed nearly $100 million Santander’s way, and he’ll be the new anchor in what is a decent (if shallow) lineup.
Santander’s problem is obvious: He doesn’t get on base. He has never had an OBP higher than .325, and even with a career-high 44 home runs last year, an OBP of .308 is hard to support. Any regression from his career year in power (he turned 30 in October), and the Blue Jays could regret the deal. Still, the offense overall has good potential.
Alex Bregman, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Previous team: Astros
It says “3B” up there, but the reality is that Bregman is very likely to be primarily a second baseman in Boston. There have even been murmurs of shortstop, but putting him next to Rafael Devers is asking for some bad defense. Frankly, no matter how the Red Sox deploy their infield, the defense is going to be very spotty, with Devers, no-longer-full-strength Trevor Story and Triston Casas around a displaced Bregman.
The good news, though, is that the offense could flourish. Bregman trades in the Crawford Boxes for the Green Monster, and while Bregman might not flirt with 30 homers again, he could easily get to his most doubles since his 51-double season in 2018. A 40-double season wouldn’t even be a surprise. And with a Boston lineup that is coming together very nicely, there will be plenty of run and RBI opportunities.
Willy Adames, SS, San Francisco Giants
Previous team: Brewers
In 2022, Adames had plenty of power for a shortstop and played strong defense, but he had an on-base percentage under .300 (.298). In 2023, the defense was still strong, but his power and batting average dipped (career-low .217). In 2024, the hitting jumped (.251/.331/.462), but the defense was a mess. For a guy who will be 30 before the end of the season, are we sure what Willy Adames the Giants are getting? They’ve made a seven-year, $182 million bet that they’re getting the good side of things, and Adames is slated to hit second in the lineup. He probably has the widest floor/ceiling gap in this year’s class.
Christian Walker, 1B, Houston Astros
Previous team: Diamondbacks
The good news is that Walker basically has to be better than the last 30-something first baseman the Astros signed to a three-year deal for around $20 million a year, because José Abreu made it only 176 games of -1.7 bWAR in Houston before they said “Whoopsiedoodles” and moved on. You know what you’re getting with Walker — about a 120 OPS+, about 30 home runs, decent first base defense. He’s locked into the middle of a lineup that could have really used a “re-sign Alex Bregman to play second, move Jose Altuve to left field” to round itself out (uh, go sign Alex Verdugo or something, Astros), but Walker should have a good time taking aim at the Crawford Boxes either way.
Gleyber Torres, 2B, Detroit Tigers
Previous team: Yankees
Torres has regressed from the guy who looked like an MVP candidate early in his career, but he’s still a 2-3 WAR player at second base, and that’s worth a fair amount, particularly in a Detroit offense that needed another bat or two to help last year’s team that underdogged its way into the playoffs. The Torres signing pushes Colt Keith to first base and Spencer Torkelson either to the bench, the minors or another franchise, so there’s a chance the team gives up some power in exchange for on-base, but based on what we’ve seen from those guys in recent seasons, that’s a fair trade.
Tyler O’Neill, OF, Baltimore Orioles
Previous team: Red Sox
O’Neill was a bona fide superstar in 2021, with 6.1 bWAR and an eighth-place MVP finish. That looked immediately looked like a mirage with he missed nearly half the games in 2022-2023 and barely had a .700 OPS. But the move to Boston did him wonders last year, as O’Neill put up the second-best season of his career. There are still significant injury concerns (he missed nearly 50 games in 2024), and going from the friendly Fenway Park to “who knows what we’ll get after the fences moved again” in Baltimore is a concern. But he’s going to hit in the heart of a rising Baltimore lineup, so there will be plenty of run/RBI opportunities.
Jurickson Profar, OF, Atlanta Braves
Previous team: Padres
It’s always scary investing in a 32-year-old (which Profar will be next week) coming off his career year, especially one that came with a career-high BABIP. That said, the BABIP was barely a career high (.302, besting his .293 in 2020), and the rest of the numbers didn’t scream regression. And Profar is moving from one of the worst parks for hitters to a neutral one, as well as joining (and probably hitting second in) a lineup that is just a year removed from being one of the best ever. There’s collapse risk here, but it’s not a guarantee.
Honorable Mention
Josh Naylor, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
There’s not much reason to be scared of Naylor heading from Cleveland to Arizona, unless it’s a The Replacements-like situation where splitting up brothers ruins their psyches.
Gavin Lux, 2B/SS, Cincinnati Reds
The Reds traded away Jonathan India to help deal with their infield surplus and then traded for Lux, because nothing makes any sense. If the strides Lux made in the second half last year (.304/.391/.508 after a .213/.267/.295 first half) were signs of actual development, it’ll all work out, but it’s definitely a “tread lightly” situation after 4.5 years of a career of underwhelming offense.
Carlos Santana, 1B, Cleveland Guardians
Santana turns 39 in April and is on his third go-round in Cleveland. But after looking near done in 2021-2022, he’s rebounded to be worth 5.2 wins spread among three teams the last two years. The dude could put up a .320 OBP in his sleep, so in OBP leagues, he’s always going to have some value.
Isaac Paredes, 3B, Houston Astros
If you were going to draw up an average player who is nonetheless scientifically engineered to succeed in Houston, it’s Paredes, who doesn’t hit the ball hard but lofts it to left, inviting all the Crawford Box home runs. Will it work? Who knows. But it’s a very smart attempt.
Michael Conforto, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Conforto wasn’t any great shakes in his return from injury in 2023, but he rebounded a bit in 2024 with 20 homers. He’s not likely to ever be the guy he was in New York again, but there’s plenty of run-scoring upside in the Los Angeles lineup.
Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, New York Yankees
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, New York Yankees
Bellinger’s OPS+ went from 139 in 2023 to 111 in 2024. Goldschmidt’s went from 120 to 98. The Yankees are betting on bouncebacks out of both to offset the Juan Soto loss.
Jake Burger, 1B/3B, Texas Rangers
Joc Pederson, DH, Texas Rangers
The Rangers needed a DH solution, a first base solution (after trading away Nathaniel Lowe) and insurance in case Josh Jung truly can’t stay healthy. In Burger and Pederson, they potentially got all three.
Pitchers
Corbin Burnes, Arizona Diamondbacks
Previous team: Orioles
You’ll forgive me if I look at Burnes’ K rate dropping every year since 2020, his 30th birthday in the rearview mirror and his move from the cavern that Camden Yards became to the relative bandbox in Arizona and I’m not especially excited. He’s the de facto ace in Arizona, but Zac Gallen is likely to have the better year in 2025 and beyond.
Roki Sasaki, Los Angeles Dodgers
Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous teams: Chiba Lotte Mariners, Giants
The problem with any Dodgers pitcher is that none of them is likely to even pitch enough to qualify for the ERA title, even before considering the specifics (both Snell and Sasaki have recent injury history; Snell has a history of wild inconsistency). When it comes to pitchers in Los Angeles, this has the potential to be a phenomenal real-life rotation that is wildly frustrating-at-best for fantasy managers.
Max Fried, New York Yankees
Devin Williams, New York Yankees
Previous teams: Braves, Brewers
It’s not often a team gets a new ace and a new closer in the same offseason … and I guess it didn’t technically happen here, since Gerrit Cole is still the SP1 in New York, but still, the Yankees added some big-time pitching this offseason. New York has cycled through closers since Mariano Rivera left, but Williams is the best one. Meanwhile, Fried has been an upper-level starter for a few years now and should remain one in 2025, but that was also an eight-year deal for a 31-year-old pitcher with injury history. Buy for now. Sell for the long term.
Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox
Previous team: White Sox
The Red Sox trade a bevy of prospects for a left-handed White Sox pitcher with an injury history? Congratulations on your 2030 Cy Young for the Braves, Garrett Crochet.
In serious news, Crochet was one of the best per-inning pitchers in baseball last year. The problem is that the “per-inning” caveat has to be in there, and it has to be in there because there was basically no one in the sport who thought Crochet could hold up under a full workload, and that concern will remain in Boston. He’s an ace. If he can throw 170 innings, he’s a Cy Young candidate. Can he? Your guess is as good as mine.
Honorable Mention
Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers
Flaherty was a Cy Young candidate in 2019, and then he collapsed, worth barely 1.0 bWAR in the next four years. His 2024 in Detroit was the first sign since that the near-ace was still somewhere in there … and then he was traded to the Dodgers and regressed again. Can he be the pitcher he was for the Tigers last year? The fact that he hung out on the market until January says the league isn’t convinced.
Luis Severino, Sacramento A’s
I will never be convinced Severino can stay healthy long term. But he did manage 182.0 innings in 2024, so maybe he’s figured out his mechanics in his 30s. If so, he’s the ace in Sacramento.
Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants
Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays
If those name and team combinations looked weird to you reading this, imagine how it felt to be the one writing it. As Craig Calcaterra said in his newsletter earlier this week, there’s a real chance 2025 is the final season not only for these two but also for Clayton Kershaw, and if so … imagine the Hall of Fame ceremony in five years. Book your hotels now.
