Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Fantasy football draft season is here, and it’s time to once again mark your 2023 cheat sheets by crossing names off — a “do not draft” list, if you will.
This article will review the worst picks in each round for your fantasy football draft strategy in 2023. Average draft position data comes from FTN’s Underdog ADP tool.
Be sure to check out fade master Nelson Souza’s fades list, too.
Worst Pick in Round 1: Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
According to FTN’s free ADP Exploration Tool, Nick Chubb has only recently become a first-round pick.
What changed between mid-July and now to make that happen? Well, nothing. Chubb rose almost by default. Running backs always do rise once August and training camp hits.
Chubb, of course, is a great running back. He has never averaged under 5.0 YPC in any of his five years in the league. He had a career year in 2022 with 302 rush attempts, 1,525 yards, and 12 TDs. But he only catches about 20-30 passes per year — and that’s a big deal for fantasy.
Despite Chubb’s monstrous season on the ground last year, he was still just the 23rd-most valuable player in all of fantasy football, according to Fantasy Wins Added. If you play in a non-PPR league, sure, take Chubb in the first. But in a league that gives points per reception, I wouldn’t use a first on a player that doesn’t catch passes.
Worst Pick in Round 2: Chris Olave, WR, New Orleans Saints
There really are no bad fantasy picks in Round 2, but there’s a certain level of breakout assumption tied into Chris Olave’s ADP that makes him stick out from the rest of the crowd being drafted here. Olave was the WR28 in overall value last year, but he’s currently being drafted as the WR12.
There’s reason to believe he’ll make a leap in Year 2 — with the upgrade at quarterback being the biggest reason — but the team is returning Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara is only suspended for three games, and fellow second year wideout Rashid Shaheed is bound for a leap, too. Juwan Johnson is back to steal touchdowns (as is the person that invented touchdown stealing, Taysom Hill).
In short, Olave faces more competition for touches this year — not less. His gains as a player and from improved QB play will be offset somewhat.
Worst Pick in Round 3: Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Am I the only one concerned with the fact Keenan Allen is 31, coming off his most injury-plagued season since 2016, and the Chargers just drafted a WR in the first round? No? Is it just me?
Allen is the final vet holdover before Round 4, where a lot of young, rising WRs are being drafted (Jerry Jeudy, Christian Watson, Drake London). I’d much rather bet on a breakout from a young player than a reprisal from Allen.
Worst Pick in Round 4: Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Najee Harris is consistent in the worst possible way. Aside from the fact he has been a bottom-feeder in actual fantasy points vs. expected fantasy points for two straight years, there’s the not-insignificant detail that Harris may not be the best RB on the team.
If Harris falls to Round 5, I’ll pull the trigger. Anything earlier than that is far too risky. (Usually I’m an advocate for risk in fantasy, but that’s only when there’s significant upside tied to that risk. That level of upside doesn’t exist with Harris.)
Worst Pick in Round 5: Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
I’ll be honest: I struggled to find an objectively bad pick in Round 5. All the players in this range feel like this is where they belong.
I’ll single out Aaron Jones, as Aaron Rodgers’ departure from Green Bay could have big implications on the pass-catching specialist. Jones has thrived on efficiency (5.1 YPC average in his career) and receiving work (47-59 catches in four straight years). The last two seasons, his fantasy value has been carried by receiving touchdowns (11 total) rather than rushing touchdowns (six total).
With AJ Dillon still in town, we should probably expect 2-4 rushing touchdowns for Jones again in 2023. But will he score 5-6 receiving touchdowns again to make up for it? Without Rodgers leading the offense, that feels like a big gamble to take.
Worst Pick in Round 6: Miles Sanders, RB, Carolina Panthers
We’ve reached the “meh” stage of the draft — and the RB dead zone. Dameon Pierce, J.K. Dobbins, Miles Sanders, and Cam Akers are on the board in this round. Might they be OK? Sure. Does Sanders concern me the most of the group? Also sure — but only by a little.
Sanders enjoyed a career year with the Eagles last year with 1,269 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns. He only caught 20 passes, though, as other Eagles ‘backs were better suited for the passing-game work.
There’s chatter of Sanders getting work as a receiver in Carolina, and he’ll need that to be the case if he’s to return solid fantasy value.
Philly ran 350 plays while up by at least eight points last year — most in the NFL. With a rookie QB, the 2023 Panthers aren’t likely to have such favorable game-scripts for a rushing RB.
He’s also already hurt — but claims he’ll be ready for Week 1.
Worst Pick in Round 7: Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
I don’t see any objectively bad picks in this round, but I’ll say Quentin Johnston is the riskiest of the bunch. Other rookie WRs going in this round are Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers.
But the difference is that Addison and Flowers have clearer roles defined for their first year (Addison especially). Flowers is also in a muddied depth chart, but at least his team doesn’t have two clear leaders for 2023.
Johnston opens the year behind Mike Williams and Keenan Allen. (Yes, I realize I said Allen was the worst pick in Round 7 and cited Johnston as a reason why. I do see that as a risk for Allen — but it doesn’t necessarily mean Johnston is going to break out right away, just that he’ll vacuum up enough targets to make Allen less Allen-like.)
Round 7 doesn’t feel terribly off for Johnston, but he should be going at least one round behind the other rookie WRs who don’t have as difficult of a path to targets in 2023.
Rounds 8+
Once you get to this stage of your draft, it’s difficult to get too nitpicky. Just remember one thing: Draft for upside!
