NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The NFL preseason is finally over, which means it’s time to get excited about real football coming our way. Before we set our sights on the games that really matter though, it’s important to recap what we learned for fantasy football this offseason and use that information to prepare for the upcoming year.
Check out my breakdown of what we learned in the AFC.
NFC North
Chicago Bears: DJ Moore Is the Clear Alpha
While I don’t think the addition of DJ Moore in Chicago is going to have an A.J. Brown– or Stefon Diggs-like impact on Justin Fields, he’s still a legit No. 1 WR who will elevate this offense. There’s no pass catcher on the Bears’ roster who comes close to Moore when it comes to talent, and the counting stats should represent that this year. Moore will lead the team in targets by a wide margin, and he has the skill to turn those targets into a high-quality fantasy season.
Detroit Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs Is Going to Be Involved Early and Often
There has been a ton of buzz surrounding Jahymr Gibbs coming from Lions camp this year. Detroit selected him in the first round for a reason, and OC Ben Johnson will surely have some tricks up his sleeve to get Gibbs the ball early and often. Gibbs’ receiving skills mean he can share the field with David Montgomery or other Lions RBs, and especially with Jameson Williams suspended to start the season, I expect to see Gibbs heavily involved in the passing game right out of the gates.
Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love Can Hang
The Packers may have done it again. All indications out of the preseason indicate Jordan Love is at least an NFL-caliber starting QB. The question now becomes, how high is his ceiling? The departure of Aaron Rodgers deflated the value of many of Green Bay’s offensive weapons, but if Love is merely an average quarterback this year, many of the Packers skill position players will provide tremendous value for fantasy football managers.
Minnesota Vikings: T.J. Hockenson’s Usage Isn’t Going Anywhere
Earlier this offseason, I wrote about the risk of T.J. Hockenson’s usage with the addition of Jordan Addison. Since then, Hockenson signed a deal to become the league’s highest paid tight end, and that move indicates the Vikings have no intention of reducing his role. We saw what Hockenson was capable of in this offense last year, and if you follow the money, it looks like he may be set to repeat that production again this year.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Kyle Pitts May Disappoint Again
As a Kyle Pitts truther, it pains me to say this, but we may be set up for another underwhelming year from the supremely talented tight end. Quarterback was a major concern for Pitts last year, and even though Marcus Mariota is out of the picture now, there’s no guarantee Desmond Ridder will be an upgrade. Throw in the fact that Bijan Robinson will probably demand a much larger share of the offense than the RBs did last year, and it may be an uphill battle for Pitts to meet expectations. I’m still betting on his talent, but expectations do need to be tempered.
Carolina Panthers: The Stage Isn’t Too Big for Bryce Young
No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young didn’t take long to adjust to the NFL game. All reports out of Carolina indicate he’s been extremely impressive, and his poise and other intangibles have the rest of the team fully bought in. The weapons around Young mean he likely won’t be on the fantasy radar much this year (outside of 2QB and dynasty leagues), but if he can raise the floor of this offense, that would do great things for Miles Sanders and the Panthers’ pass catchers.
New Orleans Saints: Jamaal Williams Is Going to Feast Early in the Season
In fantasy football, it’s easy to overlook guys like Jamaal Williams, who are slated to produce at a high level early in the season and then taper off when another player (in this case, Alvin Kamara) returns. With that said, Williams is the perfect player to target if you have a player on your team who may start the season slower due to injury, suspension, or contract holdouts. If you have someone like Jonathan Taylor, Javonte Williams or Jameson Williams on your roster, pairing them with Jamaal Williams is a great move as he should be a bell cow for the first three weeks while Kamara is out.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sean Tucker May Carve Out a Role in This Backfield
Undrafted free agent Sean Tucker has made a name for himself in Tampa Bay already. He quickly vaulted up the depth chart and is now the No. 2 RB behind only Rachaad White, and White isn’t exactly a supreme talent who’s going to keep Tucker off the field. Investing in the Bucs offense this year may not feel fun, but Tucker is absolutely worth selecting with one of your last-round picks. Stash him on your bench until we see what the backfield breakdown looks like once the real games start.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Tony Pollard Is Going to Get a Ton of Work
The biggest question surrounding Tony Pollard throughout his career has been “can he handle a full workload?” Unless the Cowboys do something drastic with their backfield, we’re about to find the answer. With Ezekiel Elliott out of the picture, there’s minimal competition at RB and it doesn’t look like anyone is taking touches away from Pollard in 2023. If Dallas’ new No. 1 can maintain the role he possessed last year – plus a little extra – he should smash.
New York Giants: It’s Darren Waller and Then Everyone Else in the Passing Attack
What the pecking order looks like in the Giants’ WR room looks like this year is anyone’s guess, but the one thing we know is this is going to be a TE-centric passing attack. Darren Waller was New York’s biggest offseason addition this year, and he should get WR1 like usage accordingly. At his current ADP, that makes him a smash for fantasy football, as he has arguably the highest ceiling of any TE not named Travis Kelce.
Philadelphia Eagles: The Backfield May Be a Mess for Fantasy
The Eagles have typically been fans of a committee backfield, and it looks like this year should be no different. Even with the additions of Rashaad Penny and D’Andre Swift, it’s looking like all backs in Philadelphia are going to play a role this year, and that could cause headaches for fantasy managers. I still believe that come season’s end, Penny will be the best back to own, but to start the season, I’d anticipate Penny, Swift and Kenneth Gainwell are all involved on a weekly basis, thus limiting the upside of any of them.
Washington Commanders: Antonio Gibson Is the Back You Want for Fantasy
Right now, Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson are priced almost evenly, and this simply doesn’t make sense. Gibson is the one who will obtain the high value touches, and the preseason has shown us that new OC Eric Bieniemy is willing to get Gibson involved both in the passing game and near the goal line. Gibson won’t have a workhorse role like he did prior to Robinson’s arrival, but he’ll still be the back you want to own for fantasy purposes.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: James Conner Is the Only Somewhat Safe Option
They’re not allowed to say it, but the Cardinals are very clearly tanking this year. They’re stripping their roster down to the studs, and it looks like it’s going to be a miserable year for football in Arizona. With that in mind, it’s hard to consider anyone on their roster a reliable fantasy starter, but James Conner may be the one exception. He likely won’t be terribly efficient given the quality of the offense, but there’s minimal competition for touches in the backfield, and he should see enough volume to keep his floor relatively high.
Los Angeles Rams: Cam Akers Still Appears to Be a Workhorse
The Rams have one of the strangest rosters I’ve ever seen. It’s basically a bunch of older studs and then a ton of unproven young guys. One of the rare players who finds himself somewhere in the middle of those two categories is Cam Akers. I’m not buying the hype that Kyren Williams or anyone else in this backfield is a significant threat to Akers’ workload, and he should get fed often as he plays out the final year of his rookie contract.
San Francisco 49ers: The Math Doesn’t Add up for Brock Purdy
Let’s do a quick math exercise:
CMC (RB1) + 2 top 30 WRs + a top 5 TE = Brock Purdy at QB22
How does that add up?
I don’t consider myself a Purdy truther, but the discrepancy between the price tag of him and his weapons simply doesn’t make sense. If all of the pass catchers in San Francisco are expected to produce this year, we have to assume Purdy will as well. His upside may be somewhat limited, but his current price tag doesn’t make sense given the supporting cast around him. He’s a screaming value in drafts right now if you’re in a 2QB league or prefer to wait on QB and rotate/stream the position.
Seattle Seahawks: This Offense Could Be One of the League’s Best
The Seahawks were one of the league’s most surprising teams last year. Many expected them to finish with the worst record in the league, but Geno Smith and Co. helped lead the team to a surprise playoff berth. There’s no reason to believe Seattle’s offense should be any worse this year. They’re returning the majority of their core, and also added two key players (Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet) in the draft. If this offense reaches the ceiling it’s capable of, almost all of their players will return great value for fantasy managers.
