Week 5 fantasy lames: Taylor's growing pains to continue in Cleveland

Each week, the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names who he believes will leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50% of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 18 fantasy points, RB: 12 fantasy points, WR: 11 fantasy points, TE: 10 fantasy points). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 5 Lames via Twitter @NoisyHuevos.

Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

(66% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $6,100)
Matchup: vs. CAR
Vegas line/Total: ATL -2.5, 53.5

Losing Julio Jones for multiple weeks due to a hamstring injury is akin to some random dude whizzing on your freshly made Nachos BellGrande. Calvin Ridley, tender ankle and all, force feeding you the ammonia-soaked chips is insult to injury. This, gamers, is the unwelcome purgatory where Ryan currently resides. His lackluster efforts in Green Bay last Monday night (285-0-0), even when presented with a negative gamescript, left much to be desired. His QB20 slotting in adjusted completion percentage and marginal red-zone execution only pile on.

With his top weapons likely deactivated, Atlanta OC Dirk Koetter is likely to place an increased emphasis on the ground game in Week 5. Strategically, it’s the perfect spot. Carolina, repeatedly gashed in the trenches, has yielded 4.6 yards per carry and 160 total yards per game to opposing RBs. Since the Panthers are more immovable vertically giving up a mere 6.3 pass yards per attempt, 229.8 pass yards per game, 1.5 passing TDs per game and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs, a heavy dose of Todd Gurley and Brian Hill is doctor prescribed. If not, expect Atlanta’s winless woes to continue.

Fearless forecast: 246 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 1 interception, 12.8 fantasy points

David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears

(58%; $5,400)
Matchup: vs. TB
Vegas line/Total: TB -5.5, 44.5

For the past season-plus, this bumbling ninnyhammer has infuriated the fantasy masses with incessant #MandatoryMontgomery inundations. Steadfast and unflinching in the belief he would develop into a praiseworthy RB2 in 12-team leagues, I waited … and waited … and waited. With every slam into an overloaded box, Matt Nagy’s refusal to feature him in the pass game and overly cutesy Cordarrelle Patterson touch, my loyalty remains unchanged. However, the stubbornness, for one week only, temporarily dissolves.

Though sitting at an undesirable RB26 in 0.5 PPR per game, there are encouraging signs Monty is improving as a player. His 2.87 YAC per attempt, 25.8 missed tackle percentage and No. 12 standing in yards created per touch are stark improvements from last season’s pedestrian analytics profile. Still, Chicago’s rickety offensive line combined with the organization’s ongoing plight at QB have dampened the rusher’s strides. Nagy, too, continues to mystify deploying vanilla schemes defenses quickly squelch.

Tampa is a formidable adversary. Similar to 2019, Todd Bowles’ unit is again unbending in the trenches surrendering only 2.4 yards per carry, 109.5 total yards per game, four total TDs and the ninth-fewest fantasy points to rushers. Devin White, Lavonte David and Vita Vea have combined for 27 tackles for loss versus the run. Working the Bucs outside the box in the short-field pass game has proven successful (7.7 rec/g to RBs), but can we really trust Nagy to effectively attack an opponent’s primary weakness? Hell no.

Fearless forecast: 14 carries, 38 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 25 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.6 fantasy points

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts

(81%; $6,200)
Matchup: at CLV
Vegas line/Total: IND -3, 47

Montee Ball. Brian Calhoun. Ron Dayne. Over the years, Wisconsin has churned out its fair share of failures. Reeking of Limburger cheese, each only experienced only fleeting moments of NFL success. Taylor is uber-talented, evidenced by his almost supernatural YAC and missed tackles compiled, during his record-setting tenure in Madison, but, as with many first-year players, especially given the unprecedented offseason, turbulence has become the norm. Netting less than 50% of Indy’s rush attempts and 5% of the target share in consecutive weeks, the youngster’s role reduction is a likely indictment of his inefficiency. Astonishingly, he’s RB41 in YAC per attempt (2.20). Jordan Wilkins, third on the depth chart, has outperformed him, running with more power and conviction.

A sudden return to workhorse carries isn’t on the immediate horizon. The Browns, featuring gap pluggers Oliver Vernon and Porter Gustin, have consistently bottled up the run. Past the quarter mark of the fantasy season, they’ve allowed 3.5 yards per carry, 114.5 total yards per game, four total TDs and the 10th-fewest fantasy points to rushers. With Nyheim Hines also heavily involved and the Colts offensive line underachieving, Taylor shouldn’t be viewed as a lineup lock for the season-long crowd.

Fearless forecast: 15 carries, 50 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 14 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.9 fantasy points

Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints

(52%; $7,600)
Matchup: vs. LAC
Vegas line/Total: NO -8, 51.5

Every first-round pick, seemingly, is under siege — Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Nick Chubb and Thomas. The bloodbath is relentless. The injury imp shows no mercy. This, fantasy fans, is the predictable 2020 outcome. The zombie hordes will soon arrive. Build a bunker.

Thomas, who’s missed multiple games with a high ankle sprain, is zeroing in on a Week 5 return. How effective he’ll be given the prolonged siesta is anyone’s best guess. For Drew Brees and his noodly arm, the return of his top weapon spells future gains to come. QB6 in adjusted completion percentage, he leaned heavily on Alvin Kamara and Emmanuel Sanders in the short-field during Thomas’ absence, a trend that could extend for another week. If the reigning catch king returns, he’ll surely be shadowed by Casey Hayward, a DB who’s surrendered a 50.0 catch percentage and 86.5 passer rating to his assignments. Yes, Tom Brady tossed five touchdowns against the Chargers last week, but don’t bet on another sorrowful performance. Hayward and Michael Davis are better than what they showed.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 67 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 9.2 fantasy points

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins

(67%; $5,900)
Matchup: at SF
Vegas line/Total: SF -8.5, OTB

Rumors about Ryan Fitzpatrick’s imminent demise are already swirling. Brian Flores’ vague admission he “presumes” the spectacularly bearded veteran will start this week reveals the leash isn’t nearly as long as many of us assume. The exuberant passer is slated to start this week against San Francisco, but his odds of game completion dwindle with each passing week. His margin for error is shrinking. Two first-half turnovers could lead to a quick hook and usher in the Tua Tagovailoa era. The rookie’s insertion could be a positive. It could also be measurably worse for Parker and his associates.

Parker, as expected, has experienced some regression from last year’s breakout campaign. His target share remains robust (20.6%), but dropoffs in average depth of target and red-zone target percentage (6.9) signal concern. On the plus side, his hamstring injury appears to be in the rearview after his standout 10-catch, 110-yard effort last week versus Seattle. On the downside, he’s slated to battle a reemerging San Francisco defense, fresh off an embarrassing home loss to Philadelphia. Going mano-a-mano with Niners backups present plenty of upside, but bank on the pocket pressure limiting the pass game.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 64 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.9 fantasy points

Bonus lames (over 50% started)

RB: Miles Sanders, PHI (Line: PIT -7.5; DK: $6,500) — Philadelphia is a franchise in the red. Surely the amount of overtime paid for athletic trainers is depleting the coffers. Mounting injuries have occurred at a staggering rate, impacting multiple groups, particularly the offensive line. Doug Pederson seriously needs to farm a few orcs from Middle Earth. Sanders has faced eight or more men in the box a microscopic 1.9% of the time yet is near dead last in rush yards over expected per attempt. His 2.51 YAC per attempt and 11.6 missed tackle rate are equally repulsive. In a Quaker State showdown expect plentiful hollow touches. Pittsburgh, No. 1 in adjusted line yards allowed, has given up only 2.3 yards per carry, 59.5 total yards per game and the third-fewest fantasy points to RBs. (FF: 16-54-0-5-17-0, 8.6 fantasy points)

RB: Joe Mixon, CIN (Line: BAL -13.5; DK: $6,300) — Against the hapless Jaguars, Mixon, as predicted, ripped the Band-Aid off the wound. Whether sprinting off tackle, charging hard inside or compiling crooked numbers in the pass game, his 181 total yards and three TDs scored was his finest single-game fantasy performance to date. After tearing down statues erected for the rusher, his once bitter supporters are propping them back up. The resurgence, however, could be short-lived. Yes, Baltimore isn’t a defense to necessarily fear. Rookies Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Antonio Gibson each eclipsed 13 fantasy points against Baltimore. Still, the Ravens have surrendered 3.9 yards per carry, two total TDs and the eighth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Trudging behind a leaky offensive line, Mixon and the Bengals, massive underdogs, retake their spot on fantasy GM shit lists. (FF: 17-60-0-4-24-0, 10.4 fantasy points)

RB: Dalvin Cook, MIN (Line: SEA -7; DK: $7,600) — More delectable than a French souffle sweetened with powdered sugar, Cook has tickled the tastebuds for his fantasy investors. He ranks top-10 in YAC per attempt (3.59), missed tackle percentage (25.6%) and yards created per touch. Minnesota’s top-notch offensive line (No. 2 in adjusted line yards allowed) has opened consistent exploitable running lanes for the thoroughbred. It’s why he’s also near the top in rush over expected percentage (48.6%). This week, however, Cook will need to bring everything and the kitchen sink. As joke-worthy Seattle is on the back-end, it’s no laughing matter up front. It’s D-line ranks No. 4 in adjusted line allowed, yielding 2.9 yards per carry, 80.3 total yards per game, three total TDs and the fourth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. LB Bobby Wagner alone has tallied eight tackles for loss versus the run. (FF: 16-66-0-4-21-0, 10.7 fantasy points)

WR: Julian Edelman, NE (Line: OTB; DK: $5,700) — With Cam Newton highly questionable due to his bout with the ‘rona, Edelman is hard to employ no matter if it’s Jarrett Stidham or Brian Hoyer under center. Yes, the Broncos’ slot corner Essang Bassey is highly beatable, evidenced by his 126.2 passer rating and 85.7% catch percentage allowed. However, unreliability at QB is likely to lead Bill Belichick to deploy rushers Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead often. As always, Edelman will nibble on the competition in snack-sized portions, but look for him to tuck under 65 yards for the fourth time in five weeks. (FF: 5-54-0, 7.9 fantasy points)

TE: Mark Andrews, BAL (Line: BAL -13.5; DK: $6,200) — Welcome back to fantasy relevancy, Mr. Andrews. After a frustrating outcome against Kansas City in Week 3, a game in which the top-five TE secreted butter from his hands, he responded with a pair of TDs in a “get right” contest versus Washington. Cincinnati is a meek opponent, but expect a heavy serving of Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards on the ground. Vertically, the Bengals have done a commendable job defensively, especially versus tight ends. Zach Ertz and Hunter Henry each reached 70 yards against them, but not one plus-sized target has spiked six. Unless it happens early, Andrews may not buck the trend. (FF: 4-51-0, 7.1 fantasy points)