Week 12 FanDuel DFS Breakdown

Welcome to the Week 12 FanDuel Breakdown.

With no teams on bye in Week 12, the Thanksgiving hangover slate features 11 games where none have projected totals over 48 combined points. Here are the two games likely to be most popular from a game-stack perspective:

• Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals (LAC -3, 48 total)
• Las Vegas Raiders vs. Seattle Seahawks (SEA -3.5, 47.5 total)

Both the Chargers and Cardinals rank top-five in pace. The Cardinals rank bottom-10 in both pass and run DVOA while the Chargers’ defense is a run funnel unit (30^th vs. the run, 11^th vs. the pass). Justin Herbert ($7,900) and Keenan Allen ($7,300) and/or Austin Ekeler ($8,800) should be the most-rostered stack on the slate, especially with Mike Williams already ruled out. The most common bringback will be RB James Conner ($7,000) while others may opt to run it back with alpha receiver DeAndre Hopkins ($8,400). Arizona’s side of things is rather straightforward with one of those two since WR Rondale Moore will be inactive and WR Marquise Brown is expected to be on a “pitch count.” 

Figuring out what the majority of the field will do with Raiders/Seahawks isn’t all that difficult either. On the Raiders’ side, it’s either RB Josh Jacobs ($8,700) or WR Davante Adams ($9,000). With Darren Waller on IR, tight end Foster Moreau ($5,400) was the only one at his position last week to play 100% of offensive snaps and he represents an affordable way to get a piece of the Raiders’ offense. Since DK Metcalf ($7,000) is slightly more affordable than Tyler Lockett ($7,400), he will likely be the stacking partner of choice along with QB Geno Smith ($7,600) though rookie running back Kenneth Walker ($8,400) will be the one most likely to garner a rostership greater than 20%. 

There are two offenses on this slate who are heavy favorites and projected for team totals greater than 29 – the Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5 favorites vs. the Los Angeles Rams) and the Miami Dolphins (-14 home favorites vs. the Houston Texans). With all the other games slated for totals under 44 points, we should expect the majority of QB-WR-TE rostership to fall between LAC/ARI, LV/SEA, KC and MIA. Though there are plenty of valuable plays interspersed within these teams, we should also keep a few other spots in mind. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Cleveland Browns matchup (42.5 projected points) falls slightly under the radar and could be a very stackable affair. The Bengals’ pass offense (vs. Tennessee Titans) is another spot to consider. Finally, the San Francisco 49ers (8.5-point home favorites against the New Orleans Saints) have some intriguing options to consider as well. More on these later.

Quarterbacks

As is usually the case on any main slate, quarterback rostership won’t get out of hand, and it’s unlikely we see any of these signal-callers above 20%. We’ve seen Justin Fields over 30% over on the other site, but he’s been priced up here on FD over the last couple weeks. 

Most Popular

• Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins ($8,300)
• Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks ($7,600)
• Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,900)
• Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens ($8,200)
• Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs ($9,000)

As mentioned in the intro, Justin Herbert and Geno Smith will be the primary leans in the two most popular game stacks. Tua Tagovailoa should see low double-digits with the Dolphins’ 29-point team total, though RB Jeff Wilson may be the preferred path for exposure to this offense given projected game script (Dolphins dominating). Patrick Mahomes shouldn’t get steamed either considering the Chiefs are more than two-touchdown favorites and the fact that there are reasonably priced QB plays with a plethora of spend-up options at RB and WR. It’s very unlikely that the Rams push this contest into being a competitive one, hence Mahomes’ GPP ceiling is somewhat limited.

This $8,200 tag on Lamar Jackson is the lowest we’ve seen since Week 2. Jackson has been horrific in relation to expectations lately — he’s exceeded 20 fantasy points just once since Week 3. The Jaguars allow a modest (and middle of the pack) 19 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season so the matchup is a reasonable one. A healthy Mark Andrews makes playing Lamar a bit more palatable, yet it’s hard to envision investing in him for cash games or single-entry contests. We’d love to be a week early on his bounce-back but between his recent play, minor hip injury and lack of weapons, not sure I’ll be able to get there outside of large-field GPPs. A Lamar-Andrews combo will soak up approximately 25% of your FD salary this week while the Mahomes-Kelce combo captures nearly 30% of it.

Favorite Contrarians

• Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals ($8,600)
• Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers ($6,800)
• Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,400)

Here are the three sub-10% guys we should get heavier than the field on. Tom Brady could easily get steamed to the 15% range, but Bucs’ exposure will likely be soaked up via rookie RB Rachaad White (if Leonard Fournette is inactive). The Cleveland Browns’ defense has been abysmal this season – they rank 27^th in pass DVOA and dead last against the run. The Bucs are fresh off their bye and have had two weeks to prepare for this contest.

My interest in Jimmy Garoppolo is partially due to a depressed price tag that doesn’t account for his Monday performance (4 TD passes, 25.42 FDP). We have a similar scenario as that Week 11 tilt where the 49ers are home favorites but face a defense that’s much easier to pass against (13^th in FD PPG allowed) than to run on (19^th in FD PPG allowed). 

Joe Burrow may see no more than a 5% roster rate, which might be a mistake by the field considering only Mahomes averages more fantasy points per game (26.94) than Burrow (23.41) on this slate. Add in the fact that alpha WR Ja’Marr Chase is expected to return, and that the Titans’ defense allows the second-most passing yards per game (287) and we might have the perfect recipe for a sneaky, GPP-winning contrarian stack.

Running Backs

Not sure we have seen a main slate this season with so many viable sub-$7k options at the position. The most popular of these will be Rachaad White and Samaje Perine – both of whom are expected to be their team’s primary backs due to absences of Leonard Fournette (likely) and Joe Mixon (already declared out). Most recognize that Perine’s running matchup is a tough one (Titans are a top-five run-stopping unit) but he’ll be on the field for 70%-plus snaps, should catch passes and it’s difficult to forget about his 3-TD output in Week 11. White’s advanced metrics as a runner seem to be lacking but we need to keep in mind the small sample size. White did hit a career high last week in carries (22) and topped 100 rushing yards for the first time ever. The Browns are the league’s worst defense against opposing backs.

We might see 20%-plus roster rates on these two while stout backs in good matchups such as Antonio Gibson, Latavius Murray and Isiah Pacheco will easily be overlooked. Gibson still does have fellow back Brian Robinson to contend with, but the matchup against the Falcons (24^th in run DVOA) is excellent. Murray is Denver’s lone lead back with Melvin Gordon waived and Chase Edmonds on IR. Murray ran the ball a season-high 17 times last week, scored a touchdown and has seen seven targets over the last two games. Marlon Mack should mix in here and there, but we should expect Murray to be among this week’s leaders in running back touches. I prefer him straight up over Perine. Pacheco has established himself as the lead back for the Chiefs, especially now with Clyde Edwards-Helaire on IR. His matchup as far as offensive and defensive adjusted line yards are concerned is neutral and the Rams are decent at stopping the run. But Pacheco’s low price tag and potentially very strong positive gamescript could lead to a few red zone touches.

Primary Chalk

• Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers ($8,800)
• James Conner, Arizona Cardinals ($7,000)
• Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks ($8,400)
• Samaje Perine, Cincinnati Bengals ($6,600) — fade
• Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,400)

Austin Ekeler is the overall RB1 and leads all backs in FD PPG (19.4), slightly ahead of Titans’ Derrick Henry (19.2). He’s seen double-digit targets in three of his last five games and has scored multiple touchdowns in four games. Ekeler and Keenan Allen will be heavily involved as Justin Herbert’s primary targets Sunday. Though Allen is $1.5k less, I’d look to prioritize Ekeler in half-PPR formats like here on FD and wouldn’t shy away from stacking him with Herbert. James Conner is arguably my favorite back on this slate. Another guy with multiple TD upside, Conner is a good bet to hit ceiling projections and exceed his 22.1 FDP effort from Week 10. The Chargers rank 30^th in run DVOA, 30^th in rushing yards allowed per game (148.4) and 32^nd in opposing yards per carry (5.5). 

Secondary Chalk

• Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans ($6,900) — fade
• Jeff Wilson, Miami Dolphins ($7,700)
• Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders ($6,100)

Dameon Pierce has been electric this season and has stood out as the league’s best rookie running back. The field has not been afraid to make Pierce chalk just about every week despite every-week negative game script as the Texans are usually always heavy underdogs. Perhaps this most recent wake-up call (eight rushing yards on 10 carries) will resonate with DFS players, and they won’t go nuts rostering a running back against a team they’re 14-point underdogs against. There are way too many fantastic options at the position this week for us to force-fit Pierce into primary lineups.

Jeff Wilson may feel expensive, but this is the absolute nut-spot. Fellow back Raheem Mostert is doubtful for Sunday, and this potential gamescript and matchup open up the potential for top-notch efficiency and heavy volume. Against opposing running backs, the Texans rank dead last in FD PPG allowed (28.9), red zone FD PPG (10.3), touches (33.2) and rushing yards (153.6). Wilson’s high price tag may keep him from getting steamed to a roster rate greater than 20% and we should pay close attention to it this weekend. If we think Wilson stays under 20%, he’s an excellent play and one we should be well over the field on.

Favorite Chalk: Ekeler, Conner, Wilson, White

Favorite Contrarians

• Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints ($7,100)
• Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs ($6,200)
• Latavius Murray, Denver Broncos ($6,200)

Off-the-Wall Milly Spray

• Michael Carter, New York Jets ($6,200)

Wide Receivers

Primary Chalk

• Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers ($6,900)
• Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins ($9,200) – pivot to Adams or Hopkins
• Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers ($7,300)
• Garrett Wilson, New York Jets ($6,000)
• Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,000)

It’s been a less than spectacular season for Deebo Samuel, as he’s dealt with injuries and his team is oozing with exceptionally effective talent. Monday night, he topped 18 FDP for just the second time this season, with his score coming on a 39-yard scamper. His price tag is the lowest it’s been all season, which is mighty tempting. Though we all love Deebo, we have to be careful if rostership gets out of hand. Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk (contrarian option) loom large as dynamic scorers and Samuel’s hamstring was barking earlier in the week. I want to be careful and not get too over the field on Deebo because “he’s only $6,900.”

The big spend-up decision at WR this week will be between Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. Roster rate projections show Hill as more popular as of now, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see that flip as we get close to Sunday. Both have immense upside, but the Raiders/Seahawks game is expected to be much more competitive, and Adams has much less target competition than Hill does. Adams has been the league’s top scorer over the last three weeks, averaging an insane 138 yards on eight catches and 14 targets over that span. Not to mention, five total touchdowns. Projected gamescript has me easily popping in Adams into primary lineups over Hill. 

Keenan Allen and Chris Godwin are usually stronger plays on full-PPR sites, but they’ll be among the most popular options on FD this week. Allen has had health issues all season and just played his third game of the season this past week. Godwin took 10 weeks to score his first TD of the season in Week 10. He’s probably due for a 100-yard game as he hasn’t had one yet this season. But in this TD-heavy game, I’d strongly consider spending $600 more for teammate Mike Evans. No wideout scored more touchdowns than Evans (27) over the last two seasons. Evans also has much better matchups against perimeter corners Martin Emerson and Denzel Ward. Per our Advanced WR DvP tool, the Browns allow nearly double the fantasy points per game to outside wideouts (14 PPG) than they do slot ones (7 PPG). 

Secondary Chalk

• DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks ($7,000)
• Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders ($9,000)
• DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals ($8,400)

Another reason why I won’t land on much Tyreek Hill exposure is because DeAndre Hopkins is almost a full grand less expensive. I’m simply not sure there’s much reason for Hill to see 10-plus targets with Jaylen Waddle and Jeff Wilson in the mix against a putrid Houston team they should dominate. Meanwhile, Hopkins could easily be the target leader of the week. He has seen at least 12 targets in four of five games this season and has caught double-digit receptions three times. Marquise Brown will return, but fellow target hog Rondale Moore is out, and Zach Ertz is already lost for the season. If spending up for a wideout in my single-entry contests, it’ll be between Hopkins and Adams and will depend on which game stack I prefer. Big fan of the Seahawks’ pass offense off their bye but acknowledge that studly Kenneth Walker could foil those plans in a jiffy.

Favorite Chalk: Metcalf/Lockett, Adams, Hopkins

Favorite Contrarians

• Justin Watson, Kansas City Chiefs ($5,000)
• Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks ($7,400)
• Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,600)
• Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals ($8,200)
• Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders ($7,500)

Off-the-Wall Milly Sprays

• Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans ($5,900)
• Elijah Moore, New York Jets ($5,300)
• Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers ($6,700)

Tight Ends

Primary Chalk

• Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs ($8,200)
• Foster Moreau, Las Vegas Raiders ($5,400)
• Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens ($7,300)

Many will do their best to get exposure to the Chiefs’ offense by spending up for future Hall of Famer Travis Kelce, and I can’t blame them. He averages over 10 FDP more than the median tight end and even six more FDP than fellow TE stud Mark Andrews. I’ll be a bit against the grain here and will be mostly paying down for tight ends while spending up at wide receiver and possibly one running back spot. Foster Moreau is my favorite among the reasonably priced tight ends but would consider my contrarian plays below as well. Noah Fant is my least trustworthy from this troika below while Gerald Everett works best as a contrarian piece in a popular stack. At this point, everyone knows that the Cardinals allow the most FD PPG to opposing tight ends (16.6) while the Seahawks allow the second most (16.4, for Moreau).

Cole Kmet is my 3% GPP play where I foresee a hefty number of targets since Justin Fields is banged up and perimeter/deep passes won’t work against this stout New York Jets’ secondary.

Favorite Contrarians

• Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers ($5,200)
• Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears ($5,300)
• Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks ($5,100)

Defense/Special Teams

Primary Chalk

• Denver Broncos ($3,900) – mediocre sack potential but best of mid/cheap range
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,100) – fresh off bye, still prefer contrarian alternatives
• Cincinnati Bengals ($3,600) – cheap chalk; would rather pay midrange for DEN or TB

Favorite Contrarian Plays

• Washington Commanders ($4,300) – facing 30^th-ranked ATL OL in questionable weather
• New York Jets ($5,000) – facing Bears team with worst OL and highest adjusted sack rate (14.3%)
• San Francisco 49ers ($4,700) – favorite spot for the least predictable outcome, a pick-six

Stacks Options

1. LAC/ARI – Justin Herbert + Austin Ekeler + DeAndre Hopkins or James Conner
2. LAC/ARI – Justin Herbert + Keenan Allen + DeAndre Hopkins or James Conner
3. LV/SEA – Geno Smith + 2 of DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett/Kenneth Walker + Davante Adams
4. LV/SEA – Derek Carr + Davante Adams + Foster Moreau + 2 of Metcalf/Lockett/Walker
5. CIN/TEN – Joe Burrow + Tee Higgins + Treylon Burks (can add Samaje Perine)
6. TB/CLE – Tom Brady + Mike Evans + Rachaad White (onslaught)
7. BAL/JAX – Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews + Christian Kirk (standard but low-%)
8. LAR/KC – Patrick Mahomes + Isiah Pacheco + Travis Kelce or Justin Watson (onslaught)
9. HOU/MIA – Tua Tagovailoa + Jeff Wilson (all the MIA TD equity; can add Hill or Jaylen Waddle)
10. LAC/ARI (contrarian) – Kyler Murray + DeAndre Hopkins + Austin Ekeler (LAC early lead script)
11. CHI/NYJ – Mike White + 2 of Michael Carter/Elijah Moore/Garrett Wilson (cheap, to fit studs in – recommended in 150-max FD optimized builds only)

Contrarian Gut Plays (projected sub-10%)

To be mixed in with chalk, not all in one lineup

• Joe Burrow + Tee Higgins
• Tom Brady + Mike Evans
• Latavius Murray/Isiah Pacheco (Perine/White chalk pivots)
• Jeff Wilson/James Conner (not sub 10% but highly recommended if not steamed beyond 20%)
• Davante Adams (if doesn’t get steamed/flipped with Tyreek Hill)
• Brandon Aiyuk (Deebo pivot)
• Gerald Everett (contrarian piece for LAC/ARI stacks)
• New York Jets DST

Best of luck this week, and let’s win ourselves some GPPs.