Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There’s no such thing as a “do not draft” player in fantasy football. If you’ve been told that, I’m sorry, but you’ve been fed lies. Every player has a value breaking point. If they’re on the board long enough, they become a value. However, the reality of drafts is that players will go in certain ranges, and some of these players are bad options where they’re being drafted. So, we’re not outright fading players, but rather we’re fading players in certainly ranges of our drafts. Below you’ll find a list of players who are generally being overvalued by fantasy drafters based on Sleeper ADP.
If you’d like more information on draft strategy, be sure to check out my Roadmap: Winning Fantasy Football Draft Strategy article and my Draft Day Checklist. You can also take a look at my latest fantasy football rankings and all 16 of our fantasy football cheat sheets. Promo code “RATPACK” will get you a discount on any FTN subscription.
General Fades
Quarterbacks in the Early Rounds of 1QB Leagues
The position is so deep that you’re much more likely to make up ground on your opponents in the middle and especially late rounds than you are at the other skill positions. Let someone else draft likes of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts in the early rounds.
Any Kicker or Defense Before the Last Two Rounds
Drafting the top players at either position rarely works out well. In fact, many fantasy managers blindly draft the top defense on their board without considering who that defense faces in Week 1. I wrote up an article on fantasy defenses to target in your drafts if you want more intel on which defense to go after. As for kicker, just draft the top guy left on your board in the last round. You’re more than likely going to stream both positions during the season, so it isn’t worth investing any draft capital in them.
Handcuffs of Anchor Backs Who You Did Not Draft
To be clear, you should absolutely draft the handcuff of any anchor backs you do draft. I have these top backs listed in our fantasy football running back tiers. If you want more information here, check out my article on fantasy football handcuffs. However, drafting the handcuff of a top back who isn’t on your roster almost always ends with you dropping that player by the third or fourth week of the season. Don’t waste the pick and instead look elsewhere, like a high-ceiling wideout.
Specific Fades
Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
ADP 2.07 (RB7)
Despite a report from the Raiders beat that suggested Josh Jacobs was expected back with the Raiders before Week 1, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero said on the artist formerly known as Twitter that Jacobs’ return is still very much TBD. While it might seem unfathomable for a player to hold out an entire season, we saw just that only five years ago when Le’Veon Bell reached rare levels of fantasy infamy thanks to his season-long holdout. If Jacobs isn’t with the Raiders when you reach draft day, you have to have a very high risk tolerance to draft him in this range.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
ADP 2.08 (RB8)
Things have really snowballed for Jonathan Taylor over the last month. He went from requesting a trade and being denied to landing on the PUP with widespread speculation that he was holding in. Things came to a boil this week when the Colts did an about face and granted Taylor permission to seek a trade. While a trade isn’t likely to materialize, his shaky situation makes him a very risky pick in the second round of drafts.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
ADP 3.11 (RB13)
Don’t get me wrong. I love Jahmyr Gibbs from a talent standpoint. He’s dynamic and exciting as all get up to watch. However, Lions head coach Dan Campbell indicated that Gibbs would serve as his surgeon’s knife to dissect the defense. In nearly the same breath, he said he’d use another back to carry a bulk of the early down work. That back is presumably David Montgomery. So much like D’Andre Swift with Jamaal Williams last season, there isn’t likely enough work for Gibbs to meet this ADP. There’s a good chance fantasy drafters are endorsing Gibbs at his ceiling.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP 4.02 (WR17)
There’s perhaps no bigger head scratcher on this list for me than Calvin Ridley. Sure, he has name brand recognition, but are we collectively ignoring the facts? He hasn’t played in nearly two years. When we last saw him, he looked dreadfully ineffective as the Falcons’ No. 1 in 2021. He’s also on a Jags’ roster that features Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram, all of whom are coming off breakout seasons. That’s not to mention Travis Etienne out of the backfield. Yes, Ridley had a great 2020 season, but it’s 2023 and this is about two rounds too high for him.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
ADP 5.08 (RB20)
Here’s a classic example of where perception doesn’t meet reality among the fantasy drafting public. While popular opinion of J.K. Dobbins paints him as an explosive player who could outplay this ADP, there seems to be a collective blind spot to the reality of the Ravens’ run game. Not only does the team seem set on using a full-blown committee, but Baltimore also has a quarterback who is all but inked in for 150 carries. The result for Dobbins is minimal volume. He averaged just 12.3 touches per game last season, a similar workload isn’t enough for him to justify being picked as RB20.
Dalvin Cook, RB, New York Jets
ADP 6.09 (RB26)
He certainly didn’t land in the worst situation with the Jets, but all indications suggest Dalvin Cook will be on the wrong side of a timeshare with Breece Hall. Yes, Hall is coming back from injury, but he’s running and cutting at full speed. If it’s a 55-45 split between Hall and Cook, the former Vikings back won’t see enough work to perform up to this ADP. Yes, he has a recognizable name, but this is about 2-3 rounds too early for him.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
ADP 7.11 (TE9)
We often talk about the running back dead zone in fantasy drafts, but there’s also a tight end dead zone that starts right in this range and lasts until the 10th round. Pat Freiermuth has had a solid start to his career, but last season showed his limitations for fantasy purposes. Despite posted 732 yards and 63 catches, he managed just two scores. That’s an average of just 3.6 catches for 43 yards per game, or 7.9 PPR points. In other words, in weeks where he didn’t score a touchdown (14 of his 16 games), Freiermuth was likely a fantasy liability. Why such a low touchdown total? Likely because of limited red zone usage. He saw just four end zone targets on the season. That total isn’t likely to increase with rookie Darnell Washington on the roster.
Kadarius Toney, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
ADP 8.08 (WR39)
I have to admit that I was pretty surprised by this ADP, as Kadarius Toney has been sidelined for much of the preseason. Perhaps we still have some residual momentum from his offseason hype train, but don’t take the cheese in this range. At best, Toney ends up in a three-way battle for the No. 2 target in Kansas City along with Skyy Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. And even if he edges out those guys, we’re looking at a very low air yards receiver (4.1 air yards per target last season) who has only seen one end zone target on 77 career targets. Those two metrics scream limited upside.
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
ADP 8.12 (WR42)
A wise man once said: “Fool me once, shame on … shame on you. Fool me — you can’t get fooled again.” For some fantasy managers, Michael Thomas has fooled them several times over the last three seasons. During that span, he’s managed to play in just 10 of a possibly 50 games. To be fair, he was very good in his three games last season, but do we really want to risk getting fooled by the “Thomas is healthy” talk yet again this season?
Rashaad Penny, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
ADP 9.12 (RB36)
Rashaad Penny’s draft stock has been on the decline over the last two weeks, but this is still too early to take a stab on a player who may be relegated to a depth role in the Eagles backfield (think Jordan Howard 2.0). Yes, for a chunk of the offseason, he was painted by many, including yours truly, as the potential early-down replacement for Miles Sanders. However, word out of the Philly beat suggests both Kenneth Gainwell and D’Andre Swift are ahead of Penny in the pecking order. You can get more bang for your buck elsewhere at running back in this range.
Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers
ADP 10.12 (WR51)
Is this ADP fair? Yes. Do I want to draft Adam Thielen in this range? Hell no. The late rounds are made for dart throws on high-ceiling options. A 33-year-old wide receiver who is coming off a career-low 1.06 yards per route run is not the type of player we’d characterize as an upside option. His teammate, Jonathan Mingo, is a much more ideal target in the late rounds, and you can likely get him a round or two later than this.
