Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
One of the biggest mistakes you can make on fantasy football draft day is blindly drafting a team defense based on whatever rankings or draft board you’re using. Sure, that defense may be the top-ranked when you’re up, but you’re overlooking a massive factor that will impact their fantasy football production: their Week 1 opponent. Even a great defense can struggle to put up fantasy points against a strong offense.
Before you head into your fantasy football draft, it’s a good idea to do some schedule reconnaissance and scout the Week 1 matchups for the top units on the board. When you do so, you’re invariably going to see that a good chunk of the top options have bad or middling matchups to start the season.
We’ll want to fade these defenses and instead opt for units with favorable Week 1 matchups. How do we identify good and bad matchups? It’s simple. Team defense scoring is heavily slanted towards touchdowns, and these come from takeaways on the defensive side of the ball. While defense can certainly score on fumble recoveries, these are a tough stat to predict. Interceptions are much more predictable, so we want to target turnover-prone quarterbacks.
Have a list of defenses who face the worst quarterbacks in Week 1 and target these defenses. From there, we’ll either continue with the team we draft or begin to stream defenses based on matchups. To help you out, I did the leg work for this year’s options. Let’s start with the top units to fade in your fantasy football drafts. I’ll then give you the top defenses to target, and, in case you miss out on them, the best of the rest.
Top Defenses to Fade
There are several of the top units in the league who get rough matchups in Week 1. Given the nature of the position, it’s wise to fade these defenses in your drafts and opt for squads with better matchups.
New England Patriots
Facing the Eagles out of the gate is rough, even for a Belichick-coached defense.
Buffalo Bills
Sean McDermott’s defense gets an interesting test in Week 1 against Aaron Rodgers and the Jets. Regardless of your feelings about Rodgers, it isn’t a good idea to test this matchup.
New York Jets
The Jets have one of the better-looking defenses in the league entering this season, but there’s no reason to mess with Josh Allen.
Kansas City Chiefs
Dan Campbell’s Lions aren’t your father’s Lions. They’re explosive and capable of putting points on the board. That isn’t good for the Chiefs in the opener.
Pittsburgh Steelers
We aren’t sure if Brock Purdy will be under center for the 49ers in Week 1, but even so, we have far better matchups to take advantage of over the Steelers’ opening contest against San Francisco.
Top Defenses to Target
San Francisco 49ers
While the matchup against the Steelers in Week 1 isn’t necessarily elite, Kyle Shanahan’s defense is one of the best in the league. They’ll have no problem against Kenny Pickett. As a bonus, you’ll get the Rams in Week 2 and the Cardinals in Week 4.
Baltimore Ravens
A matchup against potential rookie starter C.J. Stroud is certainly appealing in Week 1, but don’t get too crazy with the Ravens. A meeting with Joe Burrow and the Bengals awaits them in Week 2.
Washington Commanders
Ron Rivera’s squad has arguably the best matchup on the board in Week 1 against a hapless Arizona Cardinals offense. However, things get somewhat tricky against Denver in Week 2, and the Commanders are essentially unplayable in Weeks 3 and 4 with contests against the Bills and Eagles.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles have a very favorable stretch of games to open the season, with plus matchups in Week 1 (New England), Week 3 (Tampa Bay), Week 4 (Washington), and Week 5 (LA Rams). The only moderately undesirable matchup during that stretch comes in Week 2 against the Vikings.
Dallas Cowboys
Back-to-back New York matchups open the season for the Cowboys with the more desirable of the two, the Giants, coming in Week 1. However, it’s less optimal to have to face the Jets in Week 2.
Starting the Stream
Minnesota Vikings
As of this writing, the Buccaneers still haven’t named a starting quarterback, but it doesn’t matter. Whether it’s Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, the Vikings are still a top streamer in Week 1. Unfortunately, that’s where the stream ends, as the Eagles are on tap as their second opponent.
Seattle Seahawks
The Rams will at least have Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp back, but their offense figures to struggle this season with several inexperienced and/or lackluster starters in the mix. That’s good news for the Seahawks, but they’re a Week 2 cut candidate with the Lions up next.
Jacksonville Jaguars
We have no idea how good Anthony Richardson is going to be in the NFL, but it isn’t a bad idea to start the opposing defense against him in his first professional game. The Jags are just a one-week streamer with Kansas City on the schedule for Week 2.
Carolina Panthers
No, this doesn’t figure to be one of the top defenses this season, but we can 100% take advantage of the matchup against the inexperienced Desmond Ridder. The Panthers would go back to free agency after this contest, as they face New Orleans in Week 2.
Atlanta Falcons
We can also draft a streamer on the other side of this matchup, as the Falcons will get Bryce Young in his professional debut. Depending on how they play, you might even get a second stream out of them with the Packers on tap in Week 2.
Arizona Cardinals
This one isn’t the faint of heart, but Arizona is in play as a Week 1 stream against whoever the Commanders trot out there at quarterback. At this point, it seems like that will be Sam Howell, who only has one professional start under his belt.
Chicago Bears
Here’s another one for managers with high risk tolerance. Chicago opens the season up with Jordan Love and the Packers. They then get Tampa in Week 2. The Bears aren’t a good defense on paper, but even a bad defense can be a good fantasy option in the right matchup.
Hard Pass
New Orleans Saints
A solid defense, for sure, but they get a middling matchup against a team that doesn’t throw much in Tennessee. That means limited upside.
Cincinnati Bengals
It isn’t clear how much rust Deshaun Watson will shake off entering this season, but there are better places to roll the dice in Week 1.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are a middle-of-the-pack unit who has to face the enormous ceiling of Justin Fields in Week 1.
Miami Dolphins/Los Angeles Chargers
Week 1 will be a fun game to watch, but I want no part of either defense in this one. Hard pass on the Dolphins and Chargers.
Cleveland Browns
Unless Joe Burrow is somehow not playing in Week 1, the Browns are out of the mix.
New York Giants
There’s talent on the defensive side of the ball for the G-Men, but it’s tough to trust them against an explosive Cowboys offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This unit isn’t as bad as their offense, but it’s still tough to trust them against a rock-solid Vikings offense.
Indianapolis Colts
Trevor Lawrence and the Jags figure to be even better on offense this season. That’s a tough opening matchup for the Colts.
Tennessee Titans
With Derek Carr in place for the Saints, we could do a lot better than the Titans in the opener.
Los Angeles Rams
At this point, the Rams essentially only have Aaron Donald. He’s amazing, but he isn’t enough to give the Rams consideration against the Seahawks in Week 1.
Houston Texans
It will be exciting to watch the evolution of the Texans defense under new head coach DeMeco Ryans, but they’re nowhere near in consideration for Week 1 in Baltimore.
Las Vegas Raiders
One of the league’s worst units on paper gets a middling matchup against the Broncos. That isn’t the recipe for fantasy success.
