SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 9

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. 

Here’s a quick primer and strategy guide.

Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview and recommended plays at each position.

Week 8 Recap

Here is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s largest GPP, the Red Zone, alongside one of my lineups that finished fourth overall for a payout of $8,500. 

It was quite the sweat as I held the first overall through the first set of games and into the fourth quarter of the late games. Going into the fourth, I had about a 15% chance of holding first place, but Chris Godwin put the nail in my DFS coffin finishing with 8-140-1 (36.4 SDP) at 25.4%. 

I scaled down the number of lineups in Week 8 as I played more Gunslingers. Just seven total entries in the Red Zone after hand-building 69 the previous week and 100 the week before that. I’ll be honest, I was thrown for a loop with the Calvin Ridley news as I set myself scrambling to fix lineups. Though I had mentioned Jets’ QB Mike White in last week’s article, I wasn’t super ecstatic about him but ended up throwing him in on that one lineup. As you can see, I loaded up on four players from CIN-NYJ (paired him with Elijah Moore and used two Bengals) while also loading up on TEN-IND game’s studs. 

Going from staring at $40,000 all day to $8,500 wasn’t hard to swallow since I had mentally prepared for it. I’m not one to complain though as that’s still a nice payday and I look forward to trying to take down the Week 9 slate.

The $40k winner, RodHood, had only three players in common with me but had a nice outing from Steelers’ rookie tight end Pat Freiermuth (4-44-1) at his 2x multiplier. He climbed up to the top with those late Godwin receptions. Obviously, with a 0.3% Mike White, my lineup was much more unique and nearly six percent lower in average roster rate (18.8% to 13.1%). Once again, the top lineups hit in that average multiplier sweet spot between 1.4x and 1.6x. 

Week 9 Preview

Here’s a quick preview of the GPP contests you should consider entering:

Only one of 11 games on the main slate has an over/under of 50 points or higher – the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles at 50 points on the dot. The Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs betting total dropped from 55.5 at open to 48 upon news of Aaron Rodgers catching COVID-19. Packers’ backup QB Jordan Love (1.85x) will make his first career start against one of the league’s most porous defenses and he will certainly garner roster build attention, especially after what Mike White accomplished last week. 

Continuing the theme of cheap QBs, Saints’ veteran Trevor Siemian (1.75x) draws the start against the Falcons since he performed well last week and because Taysom Hill only just started practicing this week following a concussion. The issue with playing Siemian is it’s very likely that Hill pops in to take some snaps if he’s active and could possibly vulture touchdowns.

Carolina Panthers’ Phillip Walker (1.75x) would likely also fall under 10% roster rate should he draw the start over a concussed Sam Darnold. His matchup against the Patriots would be a difficult one and this game’s total of 41 is the slate’s lowest.

Quarterbacks

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Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

The multiplier and the matchup put Love very firmly in play. The Chiefs’ defense ranks 30th in DVOA pass defense and allow the fourth-highest yards per completion (8.4) to enemy quarterbacks. Were Love priced under 1.6x, he would likely be in the GPP bucket, but it would take a complete disaster of a start for him to not at least finish among the top-six quarterbacks at this multiplier. The key to Love’s DFS usefulness is the return of Davante Adams.

The Big Three – Lamar Jackson (BAL), Patrick Mahomes (KC), Josh Allen (BUF)

The multiplier difference on the three is nominal, so it may come down to figuring out which of these signal-callers could gets his touchdowns vultured by his own running backs. The Bills boast this slate’s highest team total at 31.5, the only team over 30 points. They are also monster favorites (-14.5) against a hapless Jaguars’ squad where they should control tempo throughout and perhaps scale back pace of play in the second half. Allen is always in consideration, but at his starting point multiplier, we would need a 400-3-0, 7-60-1 type line for him to land in the optimal.

Lamar Jackson should be the most popular option among the lower multiplier QBs, fresh off a bye week against an offense that can push the pace. The Ravens are favored by six and the 49.5-point total is the second highest this Sunday. We should be intrigued with stacking this game in – perhaps even with two pass-catchers and a Justin Jefferson bringback. We can mix in some higher-multiplier running backs and tight end to absorb the Jackson and Jefferson’s low multipliers. 

Mahomes may go overlooked on this slate and it would be unwise to count him out entirely. Though the Packers play at a snail’s pace and might stick to it without Aaron Rodgers, they may not get a chance to if Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are firing on all cylinders. This is a pissed-off squad that’s champing at the bit to destroy an opposing defense. It’s very possible as the Packers’ secondary is very pedestrian without stud cornerback Jaire Alexander.

GPP 

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Two of the league’s faster-paced teams here, as Herbert ranks sixth in passing yards per game (284.9) while Hurts averages just over 26 SD base points, leading the position in rushing scores (five) and second rushing yards (432 total on just over nine rush attempts per game). There’s a possibility that this one shoots out, but it is difficult to assert them into primary lineups given their lower multipliers and all of the alternatives on the Week 9 slate. This game is best suited to be fully stacked and assigning our preferred percentage of MME builds to it. 

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins vs. Tyrod Taylor, Houston Texans

Tagovailoa is in the mix for GPP builds as this matchup with the Houston Texans could be a slopfest featuring two horrendous defenses. The Texans have one of the league’s worst pass defenses, but are even worse against the run (31st in DVOA). On the flip side, Taylor (1.5x) is a guy to monitor and consider for MME builds as the Dolphins rank 26th against the pass and allow the second-most pass yards per game (291.1). The Texans allow 30.1 real-life points per game this season while the Dolphins allow 29.

Favorite Plays

• Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
• Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
• Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
• Deep Gut Pick: Tyrod Taylor, Houston Texans

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Running Backs

* if Saquon Barkley is inactive

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Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons 

With Calvin Ridley stepping away from football for now, Patterson should be an even bigger focal point of the Falcons’ offense along with rookie tight end Kyle Pitts. With only a slight reduction in his multiplier this week, Patterson continues to find his way onto winning lineups, averaging 18.4 base points over his last six games. Over the last four weeks, CPatt has played near even snaps with fellow RB Mike Davis (63.8% to 62.7%) but has received more carries (37 to 26) and more targets (19 to 11). If he is able to compile at least 100 total yards with a few receptions and a touchdown, he should easily find his way onto optimal lineups. 

Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins

Gaskin has played just 55% of snaps over the last four weeks, but has been busy offensively, averaging six targets per game and has three receiving touchdowns over that span. If the Dolphins can maintain the lead, we might see Gaskin set a season high in carries (15 against Atlanta in Week 7 is his highest to date). The Texans allow the second-most rush yards per game (148.1) and the second-most rushing scores (14). We can either play him on non-Tua cash game lineups or with Tua in a sloppy game stack. 

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys 

Both Elliott and Austin Ekeler (eblow) have been popular plays this season, but that has mostly occurred when their multipliers have been closer to the mid-range. Now that they’re both closer to the base, we might see roster rates under 15 percent for both. Elliott should be heavily considered since the Cowboys are hefty favorites (-10), Dak Prescott may not be at full strength and key members of the pass offense are banged up (CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper).

Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

Ekeler really does need one of those 30-point ceiling games to find his way into the optimal lineup, but that may not be difficult for him considering he is always in the scoring mix. Ekeler has found paydirt in five of seven games and has hit at least 30 base points twice this season.

GPP and MME

Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns

I don’t want to overload with options, but something tells me these two GPP/MME guys will be heavily underutilized in lineup builds this weekend and should not be overlooked. Chubb will be way off the map as folks might look too deeply into last week’s workload where Chubb played just 55% of snaps and D’Ernest Johnson converted one of his two red zone rushes for a touchdown. Chubb sat out two previous games with a calf injury and was simply eased back into action in Week 9. Don’t be shocked to see a heavy workload and an 18-120-2 type of line at a roster rate of around four percent.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

Somehow, Jones is coming in lower than usual in projections across the industry, despite the fact that he may be relied upon more than usual with Rodgers out. The return of Davante Adams plays a part, but we really shouldn’t underestimate the cushy matchup and the fact that Jones is a red zone maven. Jones had three carries within the opposing 5-yard line and has seen the third-most rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line (28) this season. 

With Saquon Barkley likely to miss this week, Devontae Booker and his generous 1.5x multiplier is in play in a matchup against his former squad, the Raiders. Booker led all backs in offensive snap percentage last week (93%), managing over 15 base points without scoring a touchdown. While many will scoff at the thought of Kenneth Gainwell, I’m very much interested this week. Granted, he won’t see red-zone carries, but should be more heavily involved this week in what’s expected to be a back-and-forth affair with the Chargers. Boston Scott is certainly in play at the same multiplier (1.7x) but I’ll go against the grain and predict that Gainwell scores more fantasy points this week. The Chargers have allowed big gains against opposing backs quite frequently and they’re the only team allowing more than 150 rushing yards per game, on average.

Favorite Plays

• Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons
• Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
• Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
• Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
• Deep Gut Pick: Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles

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Wide Receivers

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• Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens – Fresh off the bye, touchdowns in five of seven, reasonable multiplier, lining up frequently against gas can Breshad Breeland and a nice pairing with Lamar Jackson. Keep an eye on Rashod Bateman’s status, since he missed Friday’s practice for undisclosed reasons. Bateman missing the game would help ensure a higher target share for Brown.
• Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs – Leads league in receptions (64), nearly 40% of team air yards, targeted on 20% of his routes, pissed-off Mahomes against a weak secondary. Explosion Time.
• Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals – Already a top wideout in his rookie season, third in receiving yards (789), seeing 40% of team air yards, leads league in yards-per-reception (20.7) and Cleveland ranks 25th in DVOA pass defense. Browns possibly without star CB Denzel Ward for second consecutive week.
• Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders – Should see a hefty target share this week with Henry Ruggs released and Darren Waller possibly still not at 100%.
• Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns – No Odell Beckham and the Bengals are tough to run on. Landry is the last (and primary) receiver standing. Now fully healthy, should establish himself as the alpha catching short and intermediate passes all over the field and racking up the volume. Best if he just gets the ball down the field and Chubb punches them in (for my lineups’ sake).
• Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – Just two touchdowns this season, but that first one came in Week 1 when Tyrod Taylor was playing as Cooks posted a solid 6-6-83-1. Having Taylor back is a really big deal for this inept offense that might be able to cook(s) against the Dolphins. Don’t forget that studly teammate Nico Collins is a double-stack option at 2x.

GPP and MME

• Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers – The perfect tempo for Big Mike to get jiggy with it and bounce back from back-to-back poor outings. Williams has two two-touchdown games this season and will be difficult for even the great Darius Slay to cover.
• Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals – A.J. Green is out, DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t been practicing and is far from full strength. The only issue is that Kyler Murray may not suit up. If it’s 35-year-old veteran Colt McCoy under center, expect Kirk to get peppered with targets but also for the run to be established as well.
• Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings – May not get much love coming off that off game and having a low multiplier. He hasn’t even really separated himself from Adam Thielen but he’s well overdue and should have his get-right game this week. Love this stack with him, Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown.
• Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills – Was shockingly kept off the box score last week and that should be easily balanced out by an early touchdown from Josh Allen along with 70-plus yards against a defense that couldn’t stop a rolling trash can. Take advantage of that 1.6x multiplier.
• Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers – When Love starts going through his progressions, he’ll be looking at Adams first and Adams is usually open. If a solid rapport can be built between the two of them this week, it could lead to Davante staying in Green Bay next season. Don’t overlook this potential monster outing.

Other sneaky, cheap wideouts we should consider in MME game and team stacks:

• Mecole Hardman (KC, 1.5x) – vs. Green Bay Packers
• Kadarius Toney (NYG, 1.75x) – vs. Las Vegas Raiders (confirm health)
• Cedrick Wilson (DAL, 1.75x) – vs. Denver Broncos (if Lamb is out)
• Bryan Edwards (LVR, 1.7x) – at New York Giants
• Marquez Callaway (NO, 1.7x) – vs. Atlanta Falcons
• Deonte Harris (NO, 1.85x) – vs. Atlanta Falcons (will be 1% rostered)
• Rondale Moore (ARI, 1.85x) – at San Francisco 49ers (if Hopkins is out)
• Nico Collins (HOU, 2x) – at Miami Dolphins (breakout game?)
• Rashod Bateman (BAL, 1.7x) – vs. Minnesota Vikings (M.Brown pivot or double stack)

Favorite Plays

• Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens
• Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
• Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills
• Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
• Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns
• Christian Kirk, Arizona Cardinals (if Hopkins is out)
• Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
• Deep Gut Pick: Nico Collins, Houston Texans

Tight Ends

Well, the low pricing experiment is over as most of the top dogs at the position are back in the mid-range. That means the days of 40% (or higher) Dan Arnold and Ricky Seals-Jones are over. 

Cash

• Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles – The Chargers allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and a healthy Goedert has overtaken being the apple of Jalen Hurts’ eye over rookie DeVonta Smith over the last few weeks. He has cleared hit the 70-yard receiving mark in consecutive games and is long overdue a touchdown reception, last snagging one all the way back in Week 4. Perfect pairing with Hurts should you choose to go down that stack path.
• Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys – Price is nice regardless, but we will be even more enticed if CeeDee Lamb (ankle) doesn’t play. Schultz’s first game with single-digit fantasy points in almost seven weeks, in Week 8, corresponded with Dak Prescott not playing.
• Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins – Tough call between him and Kyle Pitts, especially since Pitts will be the focal point of the Falcons’ offense (and also the tough Saints’ D). But my lean is the guy facing a Texans’ defense that’s bottom-three in the league against the position. Gesicki can be forgiven for his mediocre 3-48-0 line since the Dolphins were facing the Bills. Against similarly porous defenses in the previous two weeks, Gesicki averaged 8.5 targets, 7.5 catches and 100 receiving yards. Moreover, DeVante Parker is trending towards missing the contest which would make Gesicki an even stronger play.

GPP and MME

I don’t really love any of these options as I won’t be going back to the Dan Arnold well as the Jags face the Bills. But I’d much more likely to take a shot with a 1.85x Tyle Conklin against the league’s worst TE defense (Ravens). Or a 1.7x rejuvenated Zach Ertz with likely greater target share in Week 9 with A.J. Green (COVID-19) out and DeAndre Hopkins still not practicing.

Favorite Plays

• Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
• Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins
• Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys
• Zach Ertz, Arizona Cardinals
• Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings

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Favorite Game Stacks, Secondary Correlations

• Bills Onslaught, no bring-back

Josh Allen (1x) + Stefon Diggs (1.1x) + Emmanuel Sanders (1.6x)

• Ravens/Vikings game stack

Lamar Jackson (1.15x) + Marquise Brown (1.35x) + Justin Jefferson (1.05x) or Dalvin Cook (1.1x), could also include Rashod Bateman (1.7x)

• Dolphins/Texans ugly game stack

Tua Tagovailoa (1.5x) + 2 of Mike Gesicki (1.5x), Jaylen Waddle (1.5x), Myles Gaskin (1.5x) + Brandin Cooks (1.4x) or Nico Collins (2x)

or

Tyrod Taylor (1.5x) + Brandin Cooks (1.4x) + Nico Collins (2x) + Gaskin or Gesicki or both

• Eagles/Chargers game stack

Jalen Hurts (1.2x) + Dallas Goedert (1.45x) + Kenneth Gainwell (1.7x) + Austin Ekeler (1.1x)

or

Justin Herbert (1.15x) + Austin Ekeler (1.1x) + Mike Williams (1.4x) + Boston Scott (1.7x) or Dallas Goedert (1.45x)

• Packers/Chiefs onslaught

Jordan Love (1.85x) + Davante Adams (1x) + 2 of Tyreek Hill (1x), Mecole Hardman (1.5x), Travis Kelce (1x)

or

Patrick Mahomes (1x) + 2 of 2 of Tyreek Hill (1x), Mecole Hardman (1.5x), Travis Kelce (1x) + 1 of Davante Adams (1x) or Aaron Jones (1.05x)

Secondary Correlations

• DAL-DEN: Ezekiel Elliott (1.15x) + Jerry Jeudy (1.55x)
• CLE-CIN: Nick Chubb (1.1x) + Tee Higgins (1.5x)
• CLE-CIN 2: Jarvis Landry (1.45x) + Ja’Marr Chase (1.15x)
• ARI-SF: Elijah Mitchell (1.4x) + Christian Kirk (1.45x)
• ATL-NO: Cordarrelle Patterson (1.45x) + Marquez Callaway (1.75x) or Deonte Harris (1.8x)

See you all Sunday at 11 a.m. ET for the SuperDraft super show with me, host Zac Graham and Javi Prellezo.