SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 6

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. 

Here’s a quick primer and strategy guide.

Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview and recommended plays at each position.

Week 5 Recap

Each week, I’ll kick things off reviewing the winning lineup of SuperDraft’s largest GPP, the Red Zone.

The Red Zone is a $20 entry contest where one can enter up to 150 times. This week, the contest capped at 11,500 teams and the top prize is $40,000. 

I decided to go big in Week 5 and constructed 100 lineups. Though I ended up with Alexander Mattison in 39% of lineups, he was not on my highest-scoring one, which ended up 55th overall with a score of 267.54 (below). 

The $50,000 winning lineup did have a super chalky Mattison as well as three recommendations from the Week 5 breakdown (Chargers RB Austin Ekeler and WR Mike Williams, Browns RB Nick Chubb). Giants rookie Kadarius Toney had his big breakout game at his gracious 1.95x multiplier, but the true differentiator for the big-money winner was a sub-2% Justin Herbert, who blew up for 56 SD points. 

The only thing my best lineup had in common with the winner (besides Ekeler, Chubb and Toney) was our average multiplier of 1.56x. It’s the highest average multiplier we’ve seen on a winning team through five weeks of the season. A 22.5% Jakobi Meyers busted lineups with just 12.54 SD points while teammate Hunter Henry ended up as the player to roster from the Patriots. Henry scored 26.04 points with the multiplier at a roster rate of 0.6%. 

The Week 6 slate is just 10 games, since we have a few teams on bye and a game in London. It feels a lot less daunting, but note that roster rates of popular players will be more concentrated during the byes. Upon first glance, and once we delved into the weeds a bit, this slate appears to be a bit more straightforward than slates from the last few weeks.

Popularity with stacks will gravitate around the Kansas City/Washington game (55-point total), followed by Chargers.Ravens (52.5). The Cardinals/Browns total has dropped considerably from earlier this week – from 54 to 49.5 – and both teams’ offenses aren’t very concentrated on obvious targets. That makes it tougher to build in GPP (Nick Chubb vs. Kareem Hunt or choosing between the four Arizona wideouts). This creates a scenario where GPP players are less likely to attack the game because there are more combinations to cover. 

The Rams boast a 29 implied team total, which is second highest on the slate behind the Chiefs (31) but key players there such as Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Matthew Stafford and Darrell Henderson should see double-digit roster rates. The Colts have the slate’s fourth highest total (27), but the passing attack may go overlooked with RB Jonathan Taylor (1.25x) garnering a top-five roster rate at the position.

Quarterbacks

Cash

Taylor Heinicke, Washington Football Team – A mouth-watering projected gamescript against one of the league’s worst defenses (KC is 29th in pass DVOA) and a fantastic multiplier. #TeamMath is a big fan of Heinicke at 1.55x, especially given his rushing prowess.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens – A short week coming off a monster Monday night comeback as he racked up nearly 40 base fantasy points with nearly 450 pass yards and four TD passes. The Chargers’ defense is no slouch, but we were all witness to the 40-plus real-life points they allowed to the Browns last week. Recency bias isn’t needed to consider Jackson this week, but it will certainly help his popularity for roster inclusion.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – Highest team total on the slate, coming off a lackluster offensive performance and his primary running back out for a few weeks. Mix in Washington’s dead-last ranked defense per DVOA and this one has 350-4 written all over it.

GPP and MME

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals – The Lions’ secondary is beyond putrid, allowing a league-worst 10.0 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. Better suited for GPPs with the possibility of a gamescript where the Bengals work with a lead for most of the game. Should this contest remain competitive throughout, Burrow has a good shot at leading QBs on the slate in multiplied points.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers – Hard to imagine another 50-burger but we’ll likely never see a roster rate under 2% like we saw in Week 5. In the mix this week, but not a core option.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams – The Rams’ situation-neutral pass rate is over 60% and among the five highest in the league but it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the Giants hang with them as this New York squad is loaded with injuries to key offensive players. This game feels like a heavy dose of the run game which is why Stafford is more GPP than cash.

Mac Jones, New England Patriots – Keep getting tempted by the high multiplier and we might finally hit paydirt in a game the Patriots will very likely be trailing. The rookie has yet to throw for 300 yards but if he can do so and add two TD passes, we’re looking at over 30 points with the multipler.

Favorite Plays

Taylor Heinicke
Patrick Mahomes
Joe Burrow
Lamar Jackson

Running Backs

Cash

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns – Hunt (1.25x) enters the fray as a top-five option with Nick Chubb ruled out. It will lower roster rates of Jonathan Taylor and Darrell Henderson, making each of them more viable and interesting options this week.

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears – Expect to see him on over 40% of rosters in the Red Zone if Damien Williams remains in COVID-19 protocol and misses the game. The rookie known as “Juice” looked good in mop-up duty last week, leading Bears’ backs in carries (18) and is a difficult fade for the bottom-barrel multiplier and a backfield to himself.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts – Odd things happen with running backs in Frank Reich’s offense, but matchup and gamescript dictate that we give Taylor heavy consideration. He only played 53% of snaps last week but still managed phenomenal lines (15-53-1 rushing, 4-3-116-1 receiving) and the Texans have allowed a league-high (tied) nine touchdowns.

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams – My favorite bet for a two-touchdown outing as the nine-point favored Rams should give Hendo enough work to top the 100-yard rushing mark for the first time this season. A difficult call between him and Taylor and the latter will be more popular.

GPP and MME

Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team – Gibson has been effective despite playing through a stress fracture in his shin. He scored twice in Week 5 and carried the ball 20 times but only outsnapped J.D. McKissic by a small amount (42 to 32). Projected gamescript might have folks off Gibson even though they won’t roster McKissic following his stinker (4-1-8-0 receiving, one negative yard on two carries) last week. Both should be involved in passing situations, but I’d still expect them pound the ball with Gibson no matter the score.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos – There will come a time when “The Next Kamara” has his monster breakout game and we won’t want to miss out on it. It’s been difficult to play him while Melvin Gordon is active as the two have produced at near equal rates (Williams 54-247-1, 12-11-75-0, Gordon 60-282-2, 13-10-96-0) though Gordon has outsnapped the rookie 55% to 44%. Gordon has been dealing with a hip ailment but is expected to play so we’re still able to get Javonte at a roster rate under 10%. Eighty all-purpose yards and a touchdown would give him over 26 SD points with his 1.8x multiplier.

Latavius Murray, Baltimore Ravens – If building 10 lineups or fewer, feel free to skip this section. If maxing out the Red Zone, we need to consider some exposure to Murray in a game that lines up as his best matchup to date. QB Lamar Jackson is effectively the Ravens’ RB1, but Murray is their workhorse back. Just two games with double-digit carries for him this season but he’s found the end zone in three of his last four games. No team allows more rushing yards per game (157.6) or rush yards-per-carry (5.6) than Murray’s Week 6 opponent, the Chargers.

Favorite Plays

Khalil Herbert
Darrell Henderson
D’Andre Swift
Jonathan Taylor
Antonio Gibson

Wide Receivers

Cash 

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers – The league’s most dominant wideout leads the league in targets per game (12.2) and receiving yards per game (116) and is coming off a monstrous 206-receiving-yard game against the Bengals last week. Though this game isn’t expected to be high scoring or at a high-flying pace, Adams is the Target Share King (37.8%). He’s scored a touchdown and caught at least six balls in each of his last three matchups with the Bears.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers – The price has finally decreased but still reasonable at 1.4x in the slate’s second highest projected total. He leads all wideouts in touchdown receptions (six) and has scored at least 18 half-PPR points in four of five games. Make sure he gets a practice in Friday as he’s dealing with a knee issue and has yet to practice this week. 

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals – An amazing season for the stud rookie and former college teammate of QB Joe Burrow. Chase has caught at least one touchdown reception in four of five games and it’s unlikely Detroit’s secondary is able to stop him. The only concern is that one of the other stud receivers (Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins) take center stage.

Kadarius Toney, New York Giants – What are the chances Toney is on the optimal lineup for the second week in a row? Injuries to Kenny Golladay and Saquon Barkley, a favorable projected gamescript (nine-point underdogs) and a sweet near-max multiplier means it can happen again. The only man who can stop him also happens to be a beast of a cornerback. That would be Jalen Ramsey, who has spent 50% of snaps in the slot this year, which is where Toney has primarily lined up (57% so far). 

GPP and MME

Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys/Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots – A solid secondary correlation for your GPP stacks in a game with just a 3.5-point spread (Cowboys are road favorites) with one of the higher totals (51) on the slate. Cooper has been relatively quiet since his season-opening blowup (13-139-2). He hasn’t topped 70 receiving yards since but has found the end zone in each of his last two games. GPP players fawn over teammate CeeDee Lamb for good reason, but an Amari monster outing is on the horizon. Meyers still has that favorable multiplier (1.65x) and might see his roster rate in check following last week’s stinker. A good bounceback opportunity and hopefully we finally see him find his way into the end zone for the first time as a pro player.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans – Cooks started the season off on a tear with receiving stat lines of 5-132-0, 9-78-1 and 9-112-0 but has caught just eight balls for 70 yards in his last two games, albeit in tough matchups (@ BUF, vs. NE). The Texans are 10.5-point underdogs and Cooks is in a good position for a huge outing against a Colts’ secondary that has allowed the most touchdowns through the air (15).

Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs – This play hinges on Tyreek Hill missing the contest. If Hill is out, we could stack this one up in many ways. Some combination of Mahomes or Heinicke with three of Hardman, Travis Kelce, Darrel Williams, Terry McLaurin and Ricky Seals-Jones. If building 150, consider rookie Dyami Brown, who is expected to return to the lineup and is minimum salary. 

Henry Ruggs, Las Vegas Raiders/Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos – Not for the faint of heart but a sneaky secondary or tertiary MME correlation in a game that will be overlooked. Ruggs is the Raiders’ best deep-play threat and Sutton is Denver QB Teddy Bridgewater’s clear primary target. Sutton has seen double-digit targets in two of his last four games and has four red zone targets over that span. Ruggs could finally be unleashed with coach Jon Gruden gone. He leads their wideout corps in receiving yards (348), averaging 99 air yards per game (27% of the team’s air yards this season). 

Favorite Plays

Davante Adams
Brandin Cooks
Amari Cooper
Ja’Marr Chase
Kadarius Toney
Courtland Sutton
Mike Williams

Tight Ends

Cash

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs – A very popular option nearly every week but even more so in Week 6 if Tyreek Hill misses the game. We’re talking about the likelihood of double-digit targets and receptions in a fast-paced matchup against a bottom-barrel defense. No reason to overthink this one. We can even consider a tight end correlation with Washington’s Ricky Seals-Jones.

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens – We’re not really “buying high,” as Andrews was due for a big outing after not finding paydirt in his first four games. Andrews has seen nearly 10 targets on average over the Ravens’ last three games and he will be a focal point of their attack against the Chargers with Marquise Brown and other receivers slowed down by strong Charger cornerbacks. Look for Andrews to get in the end zone again and to rack up his third triple-digit yardage game in his last four.

Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team – Really hoping this one doesn’t backfire on us as RSJ will be a popular option for both cash and GPP players across all DFS sites this weekend. The stats have been regurgitated ad nauseam – 99% target share, nine targets and three red zone targets in the Week 5 tilt with the Saints. The Chiefs allow nearly 15 half-PPR points to opposing tight ends (fifth-most) and WFT QB Taylor Heinicke’s target tree is truncated with Logan Thomas out and Curtis Samuel likely sidelined after getting hurt last week. 

Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts – The team allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends this season are Alie-Cox’s opponent this week, the Houston Texans (17.0). In the Colts’ last two games, Alie-Cox has run more routes than fellow TE Jack Doyle (16 to five) and has seen nine targets to Doyle’s two. The 6’-foot-5, 267-pound behemoth will be overlooked on a team with a 27-point Vegas total where Taylor and WR Michael Pittman will get most of the attention. Alie-Cox is just two weeks removed from a two-touchdown game where he saw three red zone targets.

Favorite Plays

Travis Kelce
Mark Andrews
Ricky Seals-Jones
Mo Alie-Cox

Favorite WR/oppWR/RB/TE Secondary Correlations for GPP stacks

• Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU) + Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
• Mike Williams (WR, LAC) + Marquise Brown (WR, BAL) or Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
• Davante Adams (WR, GB) + Khalil Herbert (RB, CHI) or Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI)
• Ja’Marr Chase (WR, CIN) + D’Andre Swift (RB, DET)
• Kadarius Toney (WR, NYG) + Darrell Henderson (RB, LAR) – chalky
• Amari Cooper (WR, DAL) + Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE) or Hunter Henry (TE, NE)
• Odell Beckham (WR, CLE) + Rondale Moore (WR, ARI) or DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)

Best of luck with your lineup builds, and I’ll see you for the SuperDraft livestream show on Sunday morning at 11 a.m. ET.