Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to the fourth edition of Stock Watch where I take a look at the latest fantasy football ADP movement. The goal here is to identify which players have rising and falling ADPs in fantasy football as we inch closer to the NFL season. I’m looking at NFFC high-stakes drafts that have taken place over the past couple of weeks.
Fantasy Football draft season is here as preseason games begin this week. Below you’ll see a list of players who have seen their draft stock rise and fall over the past two weeks. I scanned the average draft position of each player at every position in NFFC drafts from July 1 to July 15, and from mid-July to August 4.
Last week I touched on the movement of players such as Michael Thomas and Aaron Rodgers. The Packers’ QB has moved from QB10 (ADP 85) to QB8 (ADP 77) since showing up at training camp. Thomas was drafted as WR27 (ADP 67) on average over the last week (35 min and 111 max). No other wideout in the top 32 has a max of 100, so he’ll likely continue to fall. Tre’Quan Smith moved inside the top 60 (186-144) and Adam Trautman moved up 12 spots to TE15 from TE18.
The week before we hit on Darrell Henderson, Cole Beasley, Jalen Hurts and others. Henderson has settled at RB22 (ADP 53) for now with a min pick of 32 over the last two weeks compared to 109 in the first two weeks of July. Xavier Jones has moved to RB61 (194) and is essentially free.
The week before I hit on the movement from Trey Lance, Javonte Williams, Tee Higgins, Elijah Moore and Miles Sanders. A lot of those players continue to trend in a similar direction, especially Moore.
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Fantasy Football ADP – Risers
Devontae Booker, RB – New York Giants (RB61-RB57 / ADP 213-178)
It may seem weird to lead with Devontae Booker, but this movement makes sense, as it’s not certain Saquon Barkley will be ready come Week 1 and if he is ready, he could be limited. Booker is a solid handcuff and had some decent games last season in a limited role with the Las Vegas Raiders. Booker’s 423 yards and 93 carries (4.5 YPC) with the Raiders were the most he’s had since his rookie season with the Denver Broncos back in 2016 (612 yards on 174 attempts). He caught 17 passes on 21 targets and he racked up at least 30 catches in his first three seasons in the league.
If Saquon isn’t ready to go Week 1, or he misses more time later in the season, Booker could serve as a potential three-down back. Now, Booker’s upside isn’t as high but you could be looking at a 17-to-20 touch back with two to three targets per game. He only had double-digit carries in two games last season, but he had five games with at least 50 total yards. This is high-stakes players straight up protecting their Barkley investment. Don’t overlook the Giants re-signing Alfred Morris this week as it’s a real possibility Barkley is eased into a full workload.
Cooper Kupp, WR – Los Angeles Rams (WR22-WR17 / ADP 53-45)
Kupp has jumped ahead of Adam Thielen, Diontae Johnson, D.J. Moore and Julio Jones over the past two weeks. Robert Woods has also seen a slight increase (WR13), as he leapfrogged Mike Evans. This may have something to do with Cam Akers being lost for the season or perhaps there were a lot of Rams fans getting their guys last week. It’s likely the former as both Kupp and Woods have tremendous upside and they’ve shown WR1 upside over the years with Jared Goff. Matthew Stafford is an upgrade at the position and the former Lions’ QB has already built a nice rapport with both.
Kupp has always been the touchdown guy in Los Angeles’ offense and the red zone option for Goff. He only had three touchdowns in 2020 though, compared to 10 in 2019. He saw fewer targets, had fewer grabs and finished with a career-low 7.9 YDS/TGT and 10.6 YDS/REC. He ended the season as WR26 and while I think he can improve on last year’s numbers, I’m not moving him ahead of D.J. Moore or Julio Jones. He probably finishes with fewer targets than Johnson, but Stafford’s better than Ben Roethlisberger.
A.J. Dillon, RB – Green Bay Packers (RB40 RB37 / ADP 105-100)
With the injury to Akers and the return of Rodgers, Aaron Jones has moved from RB12 to RB10. His ADP has only moved from 15 to 13, which isn’t really significant but he’s one of several Packers who have seen an increase in their stock. Jones’ teammate Dillon has moved up five spots (ADP 100) at RB37. The sophomore back jumped ahead of James Conner, Kenyan Drake and David Johnson.
Dillion only had 46 carries last season but he had a monster game against the Titans where he racked up 124 yards on 21 attempts. He scored two touchdowns and it was clearly enough for the Packers to be impressed as they let Jamaal Williams walkthrough free agency. GB also drafted Dillion in the second round in 2020 so we shouldn’t be surprised to see him more part of the offense in 2021.
Everyone on GB has jumped up draft boards including Randall Cobb who had an ADP of 306 (WR166) as a Texan. Over the last two weeks, he’s been at WR75 (ADP 197) and he’s getting drafted around Jakobi Meyers, A.J. Green, Sammy Watkins and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Other risers: Trey Lance, Ryan Fitzpatrick, James White, Rashaad Penny, J.D. McKissic, Giovani Bernard, Damien Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Lockett, Jerry Jeudy, Antonio Brown, Mike Williams, Henry Ruggs, Elijah Moore (again), Rondale Moore, Rashod Bateman, Blake Jarwin, C.J. Uzomah
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Fantasy Football Fallers in ADP
Tua Tagovailoa, QB – Miami Dolphins (QB22-QB25 / ADP 159-178)
Over the past couple of weeks, Ben Roethlisberger, Deshaun Watson and Ryan Fitzpatrick have all passed Tua. The Dolphins’ QB had an ADP of 159 and a min pick of 112 throughout the first two weeks of July, but for whatever reason, Tua has an ADP of 178 and a min pick of 123 since July 21.
This despite positive reports out of Miami’s camp. This really should be different for Tua, as the offense was more catered for Ryan Fitzpatrick and there was a lack of offensive weapons in Miami. The Dolphins went out and drafted Tua’s former teammate Jaylen Waddle in the first round and they signed Will Fuller who loves a big play.
I’m not quite there on Tagovailoa, but I do expect a change in offense and the QB is coming into his second season as the guy. More importantly, he’s healthy. Will his weapons be? Will they let him throw the ball more than 30 times? It’s something he only did three times in his nine starts last season. It is worth noting that Fuller has fallen from WR38 (ADP 88) to WR45 (ADP 102). DeVante Parker has moved from WR50 (ADP 124) to WR53 (ADP 129). Meanwhile, Waddle remains at WR47 (ADP 108).
Carson Wentz, Michael Pittman, T.Y. Hilton, Parris Campbell – Indianapolis Colts
Tua isn’t the only QB to fall as Jalen Hurts continues to slide (QB9 to QB12) and Dak Prescott has moved outside the top four since his shoulder injury. Of course, Carson Wentz’s draft stock has taken a big hit as he’s already moved down 50 picks on average. It’ll likely be further when we check in next week as he’s expected to be sidelined anywhere from 5-to-12 weeks due to foot surgery.
Pittman has moved to WR47, Hilton to WR57 and Campbell WR67. All three have moved back at least two wide receiver spots, but it’s Pittman who has taken the biggest hit. It’s only been a few days since Wentz went down and Quenton Nelson was diagnosed with the same injury and timeline, but Pittman has moved down five wide receiver spots and is now going outside the top 100 picks on average. This wideout core is looking less and less appealing for fantasy by the day.
Jonathan Taylor hasn’t moved much yet but he likely will. I’ve seen him go as late as pick 20 in a best ball. Nyheim Hines probably gets a bigger bump next week as the offense should run through both backs.
Other fallers: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Derek Carr, Kenyan Drake, Gus Edwards, Tarik Cohen, Kenneth Gainwell, Rhamondre Stevenson, Courtland Sutton, Cole Beasley, Denzel Mims, Amari Rodgers, Mike Gesicki, Cole Kmet, Zach Ertz
