Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Fantasy Football drafts are starting to ramp up as we get closer to the NFL season, which means we have a good two months of draft data to take a look at. Below you’ll see a list of players who have seen their fantasy football draft stock rise and fall over the past four weeks.
I scanned the average draft position of each player at every position from NFFC drafts from May 15 to July 14. I took a look at where players were going from May 15 to June 15, and I looked to see the difference in their ADP over the past month.
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Fantasy Football Risers
Trey Lance, QB – San Francisco 49ers
Nobody has leap-frogged more players at their position in NFFC drafts over the last four weeks than Trey Lance. The third overall pick in this year’s NFL draft was getting selected as the 26th quarterback of the board on average in drafts from May 15 to June 15 (165). Over the last four weeks, the rookie has jumped inside the top 20 among signal-callers, passing the likes Ryan Fitzpatrick, Daniel Jones, Ben Roethlisberger and Tua Tagovailoa.
Lance now finds himself going in the ninth round on average and he has a minimum pick of 101, which means he’s been selected in the eighth round in at least one high-stakes draft. His ADP this month is 146. That may seem like a steep price to pay for a quarterback who may not start the season under center for the 49ers, or maybe it’s an absolute steal as it could be a sign of what’s to come.
The landscape of the position has changed over the years, as we’re starting to see more and more dual-threat quarterbacks in the game. Lance has all the tools to be a fantasy stud right away despite a limited resume, as he only played one game in 2020. He has a massive arm and he can run for days (1,100 rushing yards in 2019), which gives owners a solid floor.
The thought of Lance inside Kyle Shanahan’s offense with the amount of weapons it possesses is exciting from a fantasy standpoint. The ceiling is high and I expect the draft cost to get more expensive as we inch closer to Week 1. There’s no way the 49ers moved up to No. 3 overall to have Lance sit behind Jimmy Garoppolo. Don’t be surprised if Lance starts Week 1 and if reports confirm that or Garoppolo struggles in the preseason, we could see Lance move ahead of Baker Mayfield, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins. Some of us at FTN already have him ranked that way. The former North Dakota State product has QB1 upside and if he’s starting each week he has top-5 upside at the position. Bottom line, it’s important to find QB’s who run.
A shout out to his teammate Trey Sermon, who has also seen his stock rise over the last month. The rookie back out of Ohio State has moved from pick 92 (RB34) in June drafts to pick 76 (RB29) on average in the month of July. His minimum pick is 51 and his maximum is 100 this month, compared to 62 and 134 in May through June.
Javonte Williams, RB – Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams continues to climb boards with each draft that takes place, and his price started to get more expensive roughly around the same time reports out of Denver suggested he could lead the Broncos backfield. That may be a coincidence (probably not), but isn’t it obvious?
Denver moved up in Round 2 to select Williams, who led the nation with 76 missed tackles forced last season. Only Najee Harris had more runs of 10-plus yards than Williams’ 42 last season. At worst, Williams is set for a 40/60 split with Melvin Gordon but, according to drafts taken place this month, it doesn’t seem like many think that’ll be the case.
Williams was the 27th running back taken off the board on average from May 15 to June 15 and his NFFC ADP was 60. His teammate Gordon (RB29) was going 14 picks later. Fast forward one month and Williams is now the 23rd back off the board at pick 53. Meanwhile, Gordon has moved outside the top 30 at running back and he has an ADP of 80 in drafts since June 15.
Gordon is entering the final season of a two-year deal, and he’s not a lock to even be with the club when the season begins. I don’t know how much we can look into the signing of Mike Boone, but it happened, and that’s two moves made by new Broncos GM George Paton that don’t make a strong case for Gordon.
Tee Higgins, WR – Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins has only moved two spots among wideouts (WR 27 to WR 25) from June to July, but he’s climbed from pick 65 to 56 on average. Rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase has moved from WR22 to WR24, but his ADP of 55 has stayed the same throughout. Higgins is closing the gap, though, as his max pick has gone from 89 to 75.
It’s unclear how much higher Higgins’ stock will rise, but it’s clear some are willing to take the sophomore wideout over Burrow’s former teammate in Chase. That’s not a knock on Chase, it’s a tip of the cap to Joe Burrow and his abilities. Burrow’s 40.4 passing attempts per game last season ranked second behind Ben Roethlisberger and all signs point to Burrow being ready for Week 1. Once videos start to surface and that becomes more clear, I’m sure his stock will rise as well.
Elijah Moore, WR – New York Jets
Elijah Moore’s max pick in drafts from May 15 to June 15 was 260. Basically free. He was WR62 on average and his ADP was 174. Over the last two weeks, Moore has an ADP of 142 (WR56), as he’s moved past sophomore wideouts Jalen Reagor and Henry Ruggs. Moore’s max pick this month is 186, which is six rounds earlier than his max pick in June.
Since 2000, no wideout in college football averaged more yards per game (157.1) in Power 5 conference play than Moore in his junior season. This year’s second-round pick by the Jets has already turned heads in camp, and his outlook in Year 1 looks promising despite the return of Jamison Crowder – who, by the way, hasn’t had the best track record when it comes to health.
Other risers: Michael Carter, Damien Harris, Gus Edwards, Darrell Henderson, Odell Beckham., Mike Williams, Darnell Mooney, Russell Gage, Sterling Shepard, Jakobi Meyers, T.J. Hockenson, Adam Trautman, Gerald Everett
Fantasy Football Fallers
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, – Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger has gone from QB20 and pick 139 to QB24 and pick 162. To be fair, most quarterbacks have seen their ADP in NFFC drafts fall over the past three-to-four weeks, but not to this extreme. We’re seeing a 32 pick drop as Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Ryan Fitzpatrick and, of course, Trey Lance have all passed the 39-year-old in the pecking order.
Roethlisberger’s entering his 18th season in the NFL, so it’s fair to question whether he has enough in him to be a predictive fantasy QB. He’s finished as QB 14 last season thanks to a league-high 40.5 passing attempts per game. He topped 18 fantasy points in his first four games and six of his first nine contests, but he only reached 18 fantasy points in two of his final six games and looked awful in the playoffs (4 INT) despite throwing for 501 yards (68 attempts). As long as he’s healthy, the passing attempts are always going to be there, as he’s thrown at least 600 footballs in two of his past three seasons, but he’s been dealing with elbow problems for two straight years now.
Matthew Davis and I discussed Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense on Mean Streets this week and as you see from the graphic above, he was able to produce three top 30 wideouts in PPR leagues last season. That said, we saw a decline in completion percentage, and his 6.3 passing yards per attempt was career-low. Najee Harris may help some of his receiving numbers but there’s no question Ben’s days of being a QB1 are over. I do find it interesting, many are still willing to take his weapons inside the top 30 at WR.
Miles Sanders, RB – Philadelphia Eagles
Miles Sanders hasn’t fallen much, but David Montgomery and Chris Carson have both jumped ahead of the Eagles’ back in drafts. Sanders had an ADP of 33 and was RB18 in drafts from May 15 to June 15, but he’s fallen to pick 38 and RB20 over the last two weeks.
Sanders had a rock-solid 5.3 yards per carry last season, but he was limited to 12 games and only finished with 164 touches (12 carries per game). Sanders had one game with 20 carries, which was his first game of the season. He began his season with 15 targets in his first two games and had at least four targets in six of his first eight contests. Drops started to become an issue so targets started to decline toward the end of the year.
Philadelphia drafted Kenneth Gainwell , who has great hands, and they brought in Kerryon Johnson while Boston Scott remains on the roster. Jalen Hurts accounted for over 200 rushing yards in his final five games and had three rushing touchdowns. On top of that, there’s a new coaching regime in Philly. I don’t think anybody’s questioning Sanders’ talents, there just seems to be too many unanswered questions heading into the 2021 season.
James Robinson, RB – Jacksonville Jaguars
Many poured one out for James Robinson when the Jaguars selected Trevor Lawrence’s Clemson teammate Travis Etienne in the first round. New Jacksonville head coach Urban Meyer tried to downplay the selection by complimenting Carlos Hyde, who is also on the Jaguars’ roster.
Let’s be serious, though, Etienne has all the tools to be a bell-cow back in the NFL. I don’t believe Robinson will be completely phased out of the offense, but you don’t spend a first-round pick on a back to just catch balls out of the backfield, as a wide receiver.
Sure, some of that will happen but the big takeaway, to me, is not only has Robinson seen his draft price decrease, but Etienne has also seen a slight dip. Etienne’s still being drafted as the 22nd back off the board, which hasn’t changed over the last two months, but his ADP has gone from 43 to 48. Robinson has dropped seven spots in ADP and is being drafted as the 28th back off the board in July. It’s looking like this backfield could be one to pass on.
Other fallers: Aaron Rodgers, Saquon Barkley, D’Andre Swift, Leonard Fournette, A.J. Dillon, A.J. Brown, Kenny Golladay, Cole Beasley, Kadarius Toney, Denzel Mims, Mark Andrews, Logan Thomas, Zach Ertz, Austin Hooper
