Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to the fifth edition of Stock Watch, where I take a look at the latest fantasy football ADP movement. The goal here is to identify which players have rising and falling ADPs in fantasy football as we inch closer to the NFL season. I’m looking at NFFC high-stakes drafts that have taken place over the past two weeks.
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Fantasy Football draft season is here, as Week 1 of the preseason gets underway this week. Below you’ll see a list of players who have seen their draft stock rise and fall over the past two weeks. I scanned the average draft position of each player at every position in NFFC drafts from July 1-28, and from July 28-August 11.
Last week I touched on the movement from Devontae Booker, Carson Wentz, Tua Tagovailoa and others. More on Tua below. The week before we hit on the movement of players such as Michael Thomas and Aaron Rodgers. The Packers’ QB has moved to QB7 with an ADP of 67 over the last two weeks, passing Tom Brady and Justin Herbert. Last season’s Offensive Rookie of the Year has fallen to QB8. Thomas (WR30) has an ADP of 70 with a min of 35 and a max of 137. You have to go all the way down to WR44 (Jarvis Landry) to see a max of 130, so MT continues to fall.
Three weeks ago, the biggest movers were Darrell Henderson, Cole Beasley and Jalen Hurts. Henderson has settled at RB22 (ADP 52) with a min pick of 27 over the last two weeks compared to 109 in the first two weeks of July before Cam Akers went down. Xavier Jones has moved to RB59 (185) and is essentially free.
Risers
Trey Lance, QB – San Francisco 49ers (QB 19-16 / ADP 145-134)
Lance was the first big riser in the Stock Watch report four weeks ago. He was drafted as QB26 with an ADP of 165 in drafts from May 15-June 15. He leapfrogged seven quarterbacks and 20 draft spots in one month. He hovered around QB19 for most of July, but over the last two weeks he’s inched closer to the top-15 mark.
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By now, you know how I feel about Lance. And if you don’t, check out the fantasy football rankings. I have him as QB13 and I’m uncertain if he’ll start Week 1. If I knew that, he’d be a top-10 QB for me. He continues to impress throughout camp, and it really is only a matter of time before he takes over for SF.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB – Miami Dolphins (QB 25-20 / ADP 178-168)
I knew the Tua movement last week seemed fishy. The Dolphins’ QB moved from QB22 to QB25 from July 15-August 4, as he fell down 19 spots overall. I thought it was strange because he had a very strong start to camp, according to reports. We’ve talked about what positive reports can do for a player’s fantasy stock, and Tua is the latest to see a spike because of it. QB20 is as high as he’s ever been, and he has an ADP of 168 over the past two weeks.
Damien Williams, RB – Chicago Bears (RB 58-53 / ADP 178-164)
As discussed on Mean Streets this week in the Chicago Bears Team Preview, Damien Williams is starting to gain steam. Williams opted out last season, but he was very productive in his two seasons with Kansas City en route to a Super Bowl. He caught 53 balls in 27 regular season games (nine starts). He won’t start games for the Bears, but with Tarik Cohen still sidelined and falling down draft boards, there should be a role for Williams. David Montgomery hit career-highs in the passing game, but it’s fair to expect a decline in targets with the addition of Williams. He makes sense in a PPR league, but I don’t think he’ll be anything more than a FLEX option when you’re in a pinch.
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Other risers: Justin Fields, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Jones, Michael Carter, A.J. Dillon, Rashaad Penny, Boston Scott, Darrel Williams, Qadree Ollison, Ty’Son Williams, Davante Adams, Brandon Aiyuk, Chase Claypool, Jerry Jeudy, Antonio Brown, Marquise Brown, Elijah Moore (he’s moved up each week and he’s now at WR52), Terrace Marshall, Jakobi Meyers, Sammy Watkins, Randall Cobb, Bryan Edwards, Adam Trautman
Fallers
Carson Wentz, QB – Indianapolis Colts (QB 22-QB25 / ADP 159-178)
Wentz fell 10 spots at his position to QB27, and his ADP over the past two weeks is at 208 which is 70 spots lower before he underwent foot surgery. There’s good news for Wentz, the Colts and those who took him over the past two weeks, however. Reports suggest he’s trending toward being ready for Week 1 against the Seahawks. Quenton Nelson – who had the same surgery and timeline as his QB – is also on track for Week 1. Wentz isn’t really a target for me in single QB leagues, but if I see him outside the top 22, I’ll take a shot in a deep format. Jonathan Taylor fell a bit, but only three spots on average. Michael Pittman saw the biggest hit, as he moved from WR44 to WR48.
Will Fuller, WR – Miami Dolphins (WR 38-45 / ADP 94-103)
Tua has climbed draft boards, but Will Fuller has fallen down them. His min pick from July 1-28 was 46 and his max was 138. Over the last two weeks, he still has a high max in the 130’s but his min is 74. The former Texan will miss the first game of the season due to a PED suspension handed down last season, and he doesn’t have the cleanest track record but his ceiling is very high. He’s totally worth a shot in best ball leagues, but I can see the hesitation in high-stakes formats. The price tag is all of a sudden appealing considering he has WR2 upside.
Other fallers: Justin Herbert, Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley, Leonard Fournette, Kenyan Drake, Kenneth Gainwell, Tarik Cohen, Javian Hawkins, Kenny Golladay, Courtland Sutton, DeVonta Smith, T.Y. Hilton, Rashod Bateman, Parris Campbell, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Denzel Mims, Allen Lazard, Hunter Henry, Chris Herndon
