NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Just when you thought you were out of the fantasy football season, we’re going to pull you back in. It’s time for the NFL playoffs, which means another month of fantasy before the offseason.
Postseason fantasy football is not a new idea, but it has been increasing in popularity over the last few years. At only a quarter of the length of the regular season, these leagues are great for those who are jonesing to get one more fantasy fix and offer a chance for redemption to rid that bad aftertaste of a losing season.
There are a variety of formats you can use in the NFL playoffs, but the three most common ones are salary cap, one-and-done, and traditional draft and hold. Regardless of which your league uses, the idea remains the same – pick the players who are going to score the most points.
In draft-style leagues, this task is much easier in the regular season. Barring any injuries or suspensions, all players play the same amount of games. But in the playoffs, as teams are eliminated, you lose their players. The key here is to draft not just quality players, but quality players on teams that have the best chance to play multiple games and hopefully advance to the Super Bowl.
To determine which teams you think will advance, I suggest drawing up a bracket and making your picks just as you would for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. When mapping out your picks, remember that Vegas is your friend. Here are the current odds to win the Super Bowl at DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Green Bay Packers +380
- Kansas City Chiefs +450
- Buffalo Bills +750
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +800
- Tennessee Titans +850
- Los Angeles Rams +1000
- Dallas Cowboys +1200
- Cincinnati Bengals +1600
- San Francisco 49ers +2000
- New England Patriots +2200
- Arizona Cardinals +2500
- Las Vegas Raiders +6000
- Philadelphia Eagles +6000
- Pittsburgh Steelers +9000
Two things should be quite obvious right away – 1) The Packers are the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl with Kansas City sitting just behind them as the clear No. 2 choice, and 2) The Raiders, Eagles, and Steelers are massive long shots. There are also a number of teams tightly bunched in the middle, and that makes this a challenging bracket to fill out.
It can be difficult to use the Super Bowl odds to our advantage here, but we can use the odds to win the AFC and NFC to help us out. Here’s the AFC:
- Kansas City Chiefs +175
- Tennessee Titans +330
- Buffalo Bills +350
- Cincinnati Bengals +700
- New England Patriots +1000
- Las Vegas Raiders +2000
- Pittsburgh Steelers +3500
Despite not having the top seed, the Chiefs come in as the top pick. It’s hard to disagree after they’ve found their way to the big game in each of the last two years. But Tennessee will be tough as the No. 1 seed with Derrick Henry back. Likewise, the Bills have the firepower to go toe-to-toe with anyone. From there, the Bengals are a very appealing dark horse candidate given what Joe Burrow did down the stretch. New England has exceeded expectations this season, but it’s tough to envision them making a run in the postseason. It’s a great story that both the Raiders and Steelers managed to get in, but neither has much of a shot to get past the first weekend.
In the NFC, we have a similar distribution of odds:
- Green Bay Packers +160
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +350
- Los Angeles Rams +450
- Dallas Cowboys +600
- San Francisco 49ers +1000
- Arizona Cardinals +1200
- Philadelphia Eagles +3000
The top-seeded Packers are the odds-on favorites. At the other end of the spectrum, the Eagles are the biggest underdogs. Given the odds, the Buccaneers and Rams are the best bets to give you at least two games – with the potential to deliver four – of fantasy production. Getting four games from your players is one of the biggest factors in winning fantasy playoff leagues. If you’re looking for a dark horse in the NFC, both the 49ers and Cardinals are in play.
With all of this information, you can now draw out your playoff brackets. Of course, the Vegas odds are typically very chalky, but you don’t need to follow them 100 percent of the time. Remember, it’s your draft, so draw up the brackets based on who you think will win. Here’s how I project the playoffs:
Wild Card Round
Cincinnati defeats Las Vegas
Las Vegas has endured so much this season and they deserve major credit for getting into the postseason, but they’re a bit overmatched against Joe Burrow and the high-powered Bengals offense.
Buffalo defeats New England
These two split the regular-season series. As well as New England has played this season, it’s tough not to give the edge to the team with Josh Allen under center.
Tampa Bay defeats Philadelphia
Tom Brady is undefeated in the playoffs as a Buccaneer. The odds are good that his streak continues against an Eagles squad that did not beat a team with a winning record in the regular season.
San Francisco defeats Dallas
You can’t go chalk on every game, so this is my upset special. Kyle Shanahan knows how to win in the postseason. He’s just two years removed from a Super Bowl appearance.
Kansas City defeats Pittsburgh
It’s cool that Ben Roethlisberger gets one more playoff appearance, but the Steelers have almost no shot in this one.
LA Rams defeat Arizona
This might be the toughest game to pick on the Wild Card Card slate. The Cards beat up on LA back in October (37-20), but the Rams managed a 30-23 victory in early December. But here’s the clincher: LA enters the playoffs as winners of five of their last six, while the Cards are just 2-4 over that span – including a shocking loss to Detroit.
Divisional Round
Tennessee defeats Cincinnati
Derrick Henry’s back in this one, giving the Titans a huge advantage. While Cincinnati will give them a game, having Henry back will be just too much to overcome.
Kansas City defeats Buffalo
The Bills crushed Kansas City back in Week 5, but that was a very different Chiefs team. Kansas City has since righted the ship on the defensive side of the ball. They enter the playoffs as winners of nine of their last 10 games.
Green Bay defeats San Francisco
Aaron Rodgers is coming off an MVP-caliber regular season and isn’t going to lose at home in the Division Round again.
Tampa Bay defeats LA Rams
This is a pivotal game for playoff league drafts. The Rams won by 10 against Tampa back in Week 3, and are certainly an intriguing dark horse squad. However, Brady and company have just enough of an edge to make it back to the Conference Championship game.
Conference Championship
Green Bay defeats Tampa Bay
We have a rematch of last year’s Divisional Round, but the outcome is different in this one. Rodgers continues his inevitable march to the Super Bowl and gets his revenge on Tom Brady.
Kansas City defeats Tennessee
This was one of the toughest games to decide. Tennessee’s offensive potential with Henry back is very intriguing, but Patrick Mahomes on the other side is the deciding factor.
Super Bowl
Green Bay defeats Kansas City
Sometimes the result of the Super Bowl impacts your fantasy draft decisions, but the losing team can still put up major fantasy points.
So these results give use the following amount of games for each team: Chiefs (4), Packers (3), Buccaneers (3) Titans (2) Bills (2), Bengals (2), 49ers (2), Rams (2), Cowboys (1), Cardinals (1), Patriots (1), Steelers (1), Eagles (1), Raiders (1)
While it’s very easy to simply leave things like this, I’d strongly advise against it. Using full games, we’ll end up with a set of rankings that is heavily weighted towards the three-game teams. And the reality is that the teams that we pick to lose don’t have a zero percent chance to win.
Based on the projected spread for each game, we can calculate the team’s percentage chance of winning. If you’d like to calculate the chance of winning, here’s the formula: 0.0319*x+0.5001 where “x” is the spread.
So given the numbers I ran in my model, these percentages can be converted to the following games played: Chiefs (3.04), Buccaneers (2.84), Packers (2.19), Bengals (2.11), Bills (2.08), Rams (2.00), Titans (1.97), 49ers (1.75), Cowboys (1.60), Patriots (1.39), Cardinals (1.37), Raiders (1.31), Eagles (1.23), Steelers (1.10). Using these game projections, we can now rank all of the players for the playoffs. We’ll be using the following roster requirements: 2QB, 8FLEX, 2DST, 2K.
1. Patrick Mahomes, KC QB1, 57.4 pts, 3 gms
2. Tom Brady, TB QB2, 54.8 pts, 2.8 gms
3. Leonard Fournette, TB RB1, 54.5 pts, 2.8 gms
4. Josh Allen, BUF QB3, 48.8 pts, 2.1 gms
5. Aaron Rodgers, GB QB4, 46.3 pts, 2.2 gms
6. Davante Adams, GB WR1, 45.4 pts, 2.2 gms
7. Travis Kelce, KC TE1, 43.4 pts, 3 gms
The top tier shows you just how important quarterbacks are in postseason fantasy football, with four of them in this group. The key to winning a postseason league is hitching your saddle to the right horse at quarterback and here we have the two best bets from both conferences.
8. Cooper Kupp, LAR WR2, 43.2 pts, 2 gms
9. Joe Burrow, CIN QB5, 39.9 pts, 2.1 gms
10. Derrick Henry, TEN RB2, 38.5 pts, 2 gms
11. Tyreek Hill, KC WR3, 38 pts, 3 gms
12. Joe Mixon, CIN RB3, 37.8 pts, 2.1 gms
13. Matthew Stafford, LAR QB6, 36.8 pts, 2 gms
14. Mike Evans, TB WR4, 34.7 pts, 2.8 gms
15. Ryan Tannehill, TEN QB7, 34.2 pts, 2 gms
16. Ja’Marr Chase, CIN WR5, 32.8 pts, 2.1 gms
17. Deebo Samuel, SF WR6, 31.1 pts, 1.7 gms
18. Rob Gronkowski, TB TE2, 30.5 pts, 2.8 gms
19. Darrel Williams, KC RB4, 30.3 pts, 3 gms
20. A.J. Brown, TEN WR7, 30 pts, 2 gms
21. Stefon Diggs, BUF WR8, 28.9 pts, 2.1 gms
22. Sony Michel, LAR RB5, 28 pts, 2 gms
23. Dak Prescott, DAL QB8, 27.9 pts, 1.6 gms
24. Kyler Murray, ARI QB9, 27.6 pts, 1.4 gms
Try to get the most bang for your buck in this range. While it’s wise to attack quarterbacks in the first round, there’s still value to be had after that point. You can still end up with Burrow, Stafford, or Tannehill in Round 2. And don’t forget that games played aren’t everything in these drafts. Even if you don’t think a team will play more than one game, players like Samuel or Prescott still have the potential to out-score multigame players. And there’s always the chance you’re wrong on your game picks.
25. Tee Higgins, CIN WR9, 27.3 pts, 2.1 gms
26. Devin Singletary, BUF RB6, 27.2 pts, 2.1 gms
27. Jimmy Garoppolo, SF QB10, 26.6 pts, 1.7 gms
28. Aaron Jones, GB RB7, 26.4 pts, 2.2 gms
29. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC RB8, 24.9 pts, 3 gms
30. Elijah Mitchell, SF RB9, 24.6 pts, 1.7 gms
31. A.J. Dillon, GB RB10, 23.9 pts, 2.2 gms
32. Jalen Hurts, PHI QB11, 21.8 pts, 1.2 gms
33. George Kittle, SF TE3, 21.3 pts, 1.7 gms
34. Harrison Butker, KC K1, 21.2 pts, 3 gms
35. Tyler Boyd, CIN WR10, 20.5 pts, 2.1 gms
36. Gabriel Davis, BUF WR11, 20.2 pts, 2.1 gms
37. Dawson Knox, BUF TE4, 20.2 pts, 2.1 gms
38. Kansas City Chiefs, KC DST1, 19.4 pts, 3 gms
39. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL RB11, 19.3 pts, 1.6 gms
40. Byron Pringle, KC WR12, 19 pts, 3 gms
41. CeeDee Lamb, DAL WR13, 19 pts, 1.6 gms
42. Josh Jacobs, LV RB12, 18.7 pts, 1.3 gms
If you didn’t grab your second quarterback earlier in the draft, this is essentially the point of no return. Garoppolo is the last of the options at the position with a good shot at playing two games, but you might also be able to get plenty of bang for your buck with Hurts even if the Eagles lose in the Wild Card round.
43. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB DST2, 18.1 pts, 2.8 gms
44. Ryan Succop, TB K2, 18.1 pts, 2.8 gms
45. Odell Beckham, LAR WR14, 18.1 pts, 2 gms
46. Brandon Aiyuk, SF WR15, 17.7 pts, 1.7 gms
47. Amari Cooper, DAL WR16, 17.4 pts, 1.6 gms
48. Damien Harris, NE RB13, 17.2 pts, 1.4 gms
49. Najee Harris, PIT RB14, 17.1 pts, 1.1 gms
50. Derek Carr, LV QB12, 16.8 pts, 1.3 gms
51. Van Jefferson, LAR WR17, 16.5 pts, 2 gms
52. Christian Kirk, ARI WR18, 16.4 pts, 1.4 gms
53. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT QB13, 16.4 pts, 1.1 gms
54. Mecole Hardman, KC WR19, 16.3 pts, 3 gms
55. Mac Jones, NE QB14, 16.2 pts, 1.4 gms
56. Hunter Renfrow, LV WR20, 16.1 pts, 1.3 gms
57. Allen Lazard, GB WR21, 15.9 pts, 2.2 gms
58. Diontae Johnson, PIT WR22, 15.8 pts, 1.1 gms
59. Julio Jones, TEN WR23, 15.6 pts, 2 gms
60. James Conner, ARI RB15, 15.5 pts, 1.4 gms
61. Dalton Schultz, DAL TE5, 15.3 pts, 1.6 gms
Depending on your roster requirements, you may have to prioritize tight ends early in your drafts. I don’t recommend going that route, and instead suggest having flex spots for your running backs, wideouts, and tight ends. This is also the section of the draft where you’ll start to see a lot of onesie players hanging on the board. Be careful to not draft too many of these guys. Instead, it’s wise to load up on the teams you’re prioritizing. That means you can certainly draft a player from one of those teams even if there are several other higher-ranked players still on the board.
62. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, GB WR24, 14.7 pts, 2.2 gms
63. Tony Pollard, DAL RB16, 14.6 pts, 1.6 gms
64. Cole Beasley, BUF WR25, 13.8 pts, 2.1 gms
65. Chase Edmonds, ARI RB17, 13.8 pts, 1.4 gms
66. Green Bay Packers, GB DST3, 13.6 pts, 2.2 gms
67. Ke’Shawn Vaughn, TB RB18, 13.6 pts, 2.8 gms
68. Mason Crosby, GB K3, 13.5 pts, 2.2 gms
69. Zach Ertz, ARI TE6, 13.5 pts, 1.4 gms
70. Randall Cobb, GB WR26, 13.3 pts, 2.2 gms
71. Breshad Perriman, TB WR27, 13.1 pts, 2.8 gms
72. Tyler Bass, BUF K4, 12.9 pts, 2.1 gms
73. Buffalo Bills, BUF DST4, 12.8 pts, 2.1 gms
74. Matt Gay, LAR K5, 12.7 pts, 2 gms
75. Evan McPherson, CIN K6, 12.6 pts, 2.1 gms
76. Cincinnati Bengals, CIN DST5, 12.4 pts, 2.1 gms
77. Cedrick Wilson, DAL WR28, 12.1 pts, 1.6 gms
78. Los Angeles Rams, LAR DST6, 12.1 pts, 2 gms
79. Cameron Brate, TB TE7, 12.1 pts, 2.8 gms
80. Darren Waller, LV TE8, 12.1 pts, 1.3 gms
81. Tennessee Titans, TEN DST7, 12 pts, 2 gms
82. Jakobi Meyers, NE WR29, 11.7 pts, 1.4 gms
83. Randy Bullock, TEN K7, 11.7 pts, 2 gms
84. Miles Sanders, PHI RB19, 11.6 pts, 1.2 gms
85. Dallas Goedert, PHI TE9, 11.6 pts, 1.2 gms
86. Tyler Higbee, LAR TE10, 11.4 pts, 2 gms
87. Kendrick Bourne, NE WR30, 11.4 pts, 1.4 gms
88. Dallas Cowboys, DAL DST8, 11.1 pts, 1.6 gms
89. DeVonta Smith, PHI WR31, 11 pts, 1.2 gms
90. C.J. Uzomah, CIN TE11, 10.9 pts, 2.1 gms
91. Isaiah McKenzie, BUF WR32, 10.8 pts, 2.1 gms
92. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE RB20, 10.6 pts, 1.4 gms
Unlike in regular season leagues, you don’t want to wait to grab your kicker and defense. Again, you’ll want to lean heavily on your bracket picks and draft the kickers and defenses you project play the most games. Harrison Butker and Ryan Succop will likely be the first kickers off the board with the Chiefs and Buccaneers defenses likely being picked in the same range. But there will still be plenty of defenses and kickers to choose from in this part of the draft.
From this point forward, continue to load up on the teams you think will go the furthest, and don’t be bashful. This means picking guys deep down the depth chart. Guys like Derrick Gore and Demarcus Robinson are very intriguing in the later rounds if you happened to load up on the Chiefs.
93. Greg Zuerlein, DAL K8, 10.5 pts, 1.6 gms
94. Samaje Perine, CIN RB21, 10.3 pts, 2.1 gms
95. Emmanuel Sanders, BUF WR33, 10.3 pts, 2.1 gms
96. Hunter Henry, NE TE12, 10.2 pts, 1.4 gms
97. A.J. Green, ARI WR34, 10.2 pts, 1.4 gms
98. Jordan Howard, PHI RB22, 10.1 pts, 1.2 gms
99. Chase Claypool, PIT WR35, 10 pts, 1.1 gms
100. Zay Jones, LV WR36, 9.9 pts, 1.3 gms
101. San Francisco 49ers, SF DST9, 9.8 pts, 1.7 gms
102. Jauan Jennings, SF WR37, 9.8 pts, 1.7 gms
103. Pat Freiermuth, PIT TE13, 9.3 pts, 1.1 gms
104. Robbie Gould, SF K9, 9.2 pts, 1.7 gms
105. Boston Scott, PHI RB23, 9.1 pts, 1.2 gms
106. New England Patriots, NE DST10, 8.6 pts, 1.4 gms
107. Zack Moss, BUF RB24, 8.5 pts, 2.1 gms
108. Nick Folk, NE K10, 8.4 pts, 1.4 gms
109. Josiah Deguara, GB TE14, 8.3 pts, 2.2 gms
110. Derrick Gore, KC RB25, 8.3 pts, 3 gms
111. Antoine Wesley, ARI WR38, 8.1 pts, 1.4 gms
112. Arizona Cardinals, ARI DST11, 7.8 pts, 1.4 gms
113. Nelson Agholor, NE WR39, 7.5 pts, 1.4 gms
114. Brandon Bolden, NE RB26, 7.4 pts, 1.4 gms
115. Tyler Johnson, TB WR40, 7.4 pts, 2.8 gms
116. Matt Prater, ARI K11, 7.3 pts, 1.4 gms
117. Daniel Carlson, LV K12, 7.3 pts, 1.3 gms
118. Las Vegas Raiders, LV DST12, 7.3 pts, 1.3 gms
119. Philadelphia Eagles, PHI DST13, 6.9 pts, 1.2 gms
120. Anthony Firkser, TEN TE15, 6.8 pts, 2 gms
121. Quez Watkins, PHI WR41, 6.7 pts, 1.2 gms
122. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI RB27, 6.6 pts, 1.2 gms
123. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN WR42, 6.6 pts, 2 gms
124. Geoff Swaim, TEN TE16, 6.6 pts, 2 gms
125. Jake Elliott, PHI K13, 6.3 pts, 1.2 gms
126. Marcedes Lewis, GB TE17, 6.2 pts, 2.2 gms
127. Rondale Moore, ARI WR43, 6.2 pts, 1.4 gms
128. Kyle Juszczyk, SF RB28, 6.2 pts, 1.7 gms
129. Bryan Edwards, LV WR44, 6.1 pts, 1.3 gms
130. DeSean Jackson, LV WR45, 6 pts, 1.3 gms
131. Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT DST14, 6 pts, 1.1 gms
132. Dontrell Hilliard, TEN RB29, 5.8 pts, 2 gms
133. Cyril Grayson, TB WR46, 5.7 pts, 2.8 gms
134. Demarcus Robinson, KC WR47, 5.4 pts, 3 gms
135. Noah Brown, DAL WR48, 5.4 pts, 1.6 gms
136. Chris Boswell, PIT K14, 5.4 pts, 1.1 gms
137. Le’Veon Bell, TB RB30, 5.2 pts, 2.8 gms
138. Josh Gordon, KC WR49, 5.1 pts, 3 gms
139. D’Onta Foreman, TEN RB31, 4.5 pts, 2 gms
140. Ben Skowronek, LAR WR50, 4.4 pts, 2 gms
141. Chester Rogers, TEN WR51, 4.3 pts, 2 gms
142. James Washington, PIT WR52, 4.2 pts, 1.1 gms
143. JaMycal Hasty, SF RB32, 3.7 pts, 1.7 gms
144. Eno Benjamin, ARI RB33, 3.7 pts, 1.4 gms
145. Jalen Reagor, PHI WR53, 3.7 pts, 1.2 gms
146. Jonnu Smith, NE TE18, 3.6 pts, 1.4 gms
147. MyCole Pruitt, TEN TE19, 3.3 pts, 2 gms
148. Ray-Ray McCloud, PIT WR54, 3.3 pts, 1.1 gms
149. O.J. Howard, TB TE20, 3.2 pts, 2.8 gms
150. Foster Moreau, LV TE21, 3 pts, 1.3 gms
151. Equanimeous St. Brown, GB WR55, 3 pts, 2.2 gms
152. Noah Gray, KC TE22, 2.8 pts, 3 gms
153. N’Keal Harry, NE WR56, 2.7 pts, 1.4 gms
154. Greg Ward, PHI WR57, 2.1 pts, 1.2 gms
155. Drew Sample, CIN TE23, 2.1 pts, 2.1 gms
156. Scott Miller, TB WR58, 2 pts, 2.8 gms
157. Marcus Mariota, LV QB15, 1.9 pts, 1.3 gms
158. Kendall Blanton, LAR TE24, 1.9 pts, 2 gms
159. Zach Gentry, PIT TE25, 1.9 pts, 1.1 gms
160. Blake Bell, KC TE26, 1.7 pts, 3 gms
161. Kalen Ballage, PIT RB34, 1.4 pts, 1.1 gms
162. Corey Clement, DAL RB35, 1.2 pts, 1.6 gms
163. Benny Snell Jr., PIT RB36, 1.2 pts, 1.1 gms
164. Cody White, PIT WR59, 1.2 pts, 1.1 gms
165. Jalen Richard, LV RB37, 1.2 pts, 1.3 gms
166. Jonathan Ward, ARI RB38, 1.2 pts, 1.4 gms
167. Mike Thomas, CIN WR60, 1.1 pts, 2.1 gms
168. Andy Isabella, ARI WR61, 1.1 pts, 1.4 gms
169. Trent Sherfield, SF WR62, 0.9 pts, 1.7 gms
170. J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, PHI WR63, 0.8 pts, 1.2 gms
171. Peyton Barber, LV RB39, 0.5 pts, 1.3 gms
172. Jack Stoll, PHI TE27, 0.4 pts, 1.2 gms
