NFL Usage Report for Week 11: Expected Fantasy Points Update

In this week’s fantasy football usage report, I’m going back to a familiar exercise and looking at players who are poised for rest of season breakouts based on FTN’s Expected Fantasy Points Data. Expected points is a great way to summarize usage because it predicts how many points a player should be scoring based on the opportunities they’re given. However, we all know that fantasy football isn’t easy to predict, and those expectations aren’t always met. However, in the long run, players tend to regress closer to their expectations which presents buying opportunities for the savvy fantasy manager.

Given this, I’ve here are five players at each position who are currently seeing the largest gap between their expected fantasy points and their actual points scored. With most trade deadlines rapidly approaching, buying low on a few of these guys with the hope of a late season turnaround could pay dividends down the stretch.

Quarterback

The Repeat Offenders

Four of the five names on this list popped up on the Week 7 Usage Report where I used this same format to identify buy-low candidates. Not a ton has changed with this group, but you can now feel even stronger in your conviction that Matthew Stafford is likely going to continue underperforming given the injury to Cooper Kupp. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray’s hamstring injury could be enough of a concern to avoid buying even at a discount, but he still possesses tremendous upside, especially with Marquise Brown coming back into the mix. Tom Brady is the one candidate here who I really like as a buy low. It feels like he can be acquired for fairly cheap. He’s still got the talent, his receiver group is healthy, and the Bucs are still very much in the mix for the playoffs considering their record and weak division. Finally, Justin Herbert is still Justin Herbert. Based on name value alone, he’ll likely be tough to acquire on the cheap, but with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen likely returning soon, his value likely only goes up from here.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins is the lone new name in the quarterback category this week. It’s pretty shocking that despite Justin Jefferson’s ability to make other-worldly catches, his quarterback is still underperforming by a noticeable margin. While Cousins doesn’t possess top-five upside, he’s still a QB who can likely be acquired for a reasonable price and help fill a void for teams struggling at the position.

Running Back

The Repeat Offenders 

Only three repeats at the running back position. Najee Harris continues to play inefficient football, and with rookie Jaylen Warren eating away at some of his usage in recent weeks. It’s hard to stomach the idea of buying him regardless of price at this point. I expect Harris to continue producing in the 8- to 12-point range on a weekly basis. Once again, we’re also seeing J.D. McKissic on this list. It’ll be interesting to see how Washington’s quarterback change impacts his usage moving forward, but McKissic still remains a specialty back who is stuck in a committee and is likely nothing more than a desperation flex/RB2 play. Last of the repeat offenders is the good ole 1.01 (aka Jonathan Taylor). Predicting anything that’s going to happen in Indy over the coming weeks is starting to look more and more like a fool’s errand given all the chaos they’re experiencing. Yet Taylor remains an elite talent and based on our one game sample size, it looks like head coach Jeff Saturday wants to keep him heavily involved in the offense. Acquiring Taylor is a true swing for the fences move, but if you’re willing to stomach the risk, it’s worth kicking the tires and asking what the price would be.

AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers

After being one of the most talked-up players in the fantasy community this offseason, AJ Dillon has been a total flop this year. The Packers offense as a whole has been atrocious, and their lone bright spot has been Dillon’s backfield buddy – Aaron Jones. We saw signs of life from the Packers for the first time all season this past week when they squared off against the Cowboys, but even then, Dillon accumulated a pedestrian 65 yards on the ground and didn’t see a single target in the passing game. The one silver lining for Dillon is Jones was recently dinged up with an ankle injury. While he didn’t miss any time, if Jones re-aggravates that injury and the Packers offense steps up down the stretch, Dillon could dominate. At this point though, Dillon’s likely just a glorified handcuff.

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

Yikes… Cam Akers underperformance this year is the most egregious on this list. He’s 20 points below expectation, but that’s on an expectation of just 47.4 points. The Rams appear to be in a downward spiral, and there’s some tension between Akers and the coaching staff in LA. If you want to acquire him for a late round pick in a dynasty league, that’s not the worst dart to throw, but the writing appears to be on the wall already for Akers and the Rams offense for 2022.

Wide Receiver

The Repeat Offenders

Diontae Johnson continues to lead the pack as he hasn’t been able to develop much of a rapport with Kenny Pickett and the Steelers’ offense remains inefficient as a whole. He’s likely due for a little positive regression down the stretch, and with Chase Claypool now out of the equation, he could see a bump in opportunity as well making him a solid low-risk candidate to buy low on. Courtland Sutton once again finds himself on this list while his QB remains on the list for quarterbacks. This is certainly a red flag, but now that Jerry Jeudy is nursing an ankle injury, Sutton could receive a boost in usage even if the inefficiency continues. Brandin Cooks rounds out the trio of repeat offenders at wide receiver, and much like the other two names on this list, we can easily point to poor QB play as the culprit here. It’s hard to envision much changing for Cooks down the stretch as the Texans are rebuilding and have little incentive to prioritize the 29-year-old in their game plans moving forward.

DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers

After an atrocious start to the season, DJ Moore has kicked things into gear in recent weeks, but he’s still leaving meat on the bone. Like the other names in this group, quarterback play remains the major culprit here, but Moore is the most likely player on this list to make something out of nothing with the ball in his hands. He’ll likely remain inefficient down the stretch, especially with Baker Mayfield getting back under center. However, if the current Moore owner in your league is more scared of Mayfield’s return than you are, it could provide a solid buying window for a player with superstar level talent.

Allen Robinson, Los Angeles Rams

Cooper Kupp’s injury opens the door for a late season surge from Allen Robinson. The latter will likely remain inefficient down the stretch due to the combination of his aging game and the Rams having one of the league’s worst offenses, but he’s slated for a massive uptick in opportunity as the new No. 1 in LA. Buying into Robinson and this Rams’ offense may feel gross, but that’s exactly what makes him a prime buy-low candidate as that feeling is why he’ll likely be cheap.

Tight End

The Repeat Offenders

Once again, we see three repeat offenders in a group. Tyler Higbee has had a wildly up-and-down season, but much like with Robinson, he’s set to become a much more heavily utilized piece of the passing game with Kupp out of the equation. He should at the very least provide a solid floor for the rest of the season even if his ceiling is limited. Given the wasteland that is the TE position in fantasy football, acquiring that floor isn’t the worst idea in the world. Staying in LA, we also see Gerald Everett in this group. Everett’s also been wildly up and down, but like it was mentioned in the QB section with Herbert, both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are set to return which could cause his usage to dip even if his efficiency gets a bump. Our last repeat offender is Brevin Jordan, who will likely continue to underperform down the stretch. Even though the gap for him is large, he’s only been expected to see 26.8 points on the year and can be ignored accordingly.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

This one stings. Pitts feels like the type of player who should be shattering his expected fantasy points metrics, but Marcus Mariota simply hasn’t been able to support him as a fantasy asset. Still, Pitts leads all tight ends in air yards this year (784) with over 100 yards more than the second name on the list (Mark Andrews, 681). The opportunity and the talent are both there, and I may look like a fool for it, but I’d still buy Kyle Pitts based on the upside he possesses.

Logan Thomas, Washington Commanders

While Logan Thomas has missed some time due to injury, he hasn’t made the most of his opportunity upon his return. The Washington offense hasn’t been particularly impressive, and Thomas is behind a few impressive receivers on the pecking order in the passing game. He’s a classic waiver wire desperation start, but there’s no need to pay anything significant to acquire him.