Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Thanks to one of the most eventful NFL offseasons of all time, the bridge between last year’s Super Bowl and next year’s opening kickoff has felt a little shorter than usual.
Still, to fans, summer’s arrival means our desire to consume all things football grows to nearly uncontainable levels. Talk shows, podcasts and Twitter timelines are zeroing in on the upcoming NFL season. Fantasy drafts and competitions are popping up left and right. Sportsbooks are taking bets on futures like division, conference and Super Bowl champions.
Throughout June and July, I’m going to attempt to feed your hunger for NFL content by previewing every division. I’ll cover key division storylines, provide a breakdown for each team and give out my pick to win each division.
(Check out the division previews so far: NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West)
NFC West Preview
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, the NFC West has the second-best odds (+440) of any division to produce the next Super Bowl champion. It makes sense considering it produced last season’s champ, the Los Angeles Rams, and figures to have two other teams battling for a playoff spot.
The San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals project to give the Rams a run for their money, but perhaps the NFC West’s most noteworthy offseason storyline came from the Seattle Seahawks. The upcoming season will mark the first time since 2012 that the Seahawks begin a season without Russell Wilson or Bobby Wagner on the roster.
Here, I’ll project the 2022 NFC West standings, break down each team’s chances to capture the division title and touch on what could prevent each team from reaching its potential.
1. Los Angeles Rams
(FanDuel Sportsbook division title odds: +130)
Just 12 of the last 20 Super Bowl champions have gone on to win their division the following year. The Rams lost Von Miller to free agency, haven’t re-signed the injured Odell Beckham and traded receiver Robert Woods. So, how will the Rams take the NFC West in 2022?
Los Angeles did lose quite a bit of talent, but they got aggressive and went “all in” again, as we’ve grown accustomed to. On offense, they brought in wide receiver Allen Robinson to fill the gap left by Beckham and Woods, and they’ll reap the benefits of having running back Cam Akers in the mix for a full season.
If you watched any Rams game last season, though, you know Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp have a special connection (and that they eat breakfast together). As long as Kupp and Stafford are healthy, the Rams’ offense will be a force.
On the other side of the ball, Los Angeles re-signed PFF’s highest-graded defensive player and three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald. Despite losing edge rusher Von Miller, the Rams will again boast one of the league’s top defensive line units.
LA lost its No. 2 cornerback in Darious Williams but still figures to be plenty serviceable in the secondary as long as Jalen Ramsey is lurking back there. The biggest splash – or knife twist if you’re a Seahawks fan – came when the Rams signed linebacker Bobby Wagner to a five-year deal. The Seattle legend will now work to break his old fans’ hearts twice a year.
The bottom line is that the Rams’ roster is loaded. The NFC West is tough, but LA’s star power will be too much to handle once again.
2. San Francisco 49ers
(FanDuel odds: +200)
The 49ers are weird. And they have been for years. Even after a Super Bowl appearance to cap off the 2019 season, almost nobody thought Jimmy Garoppolo could be “the guy” in San Francisco. Then, 2020 brought on the injury bug and the Niners quite literally limped their way to a 6-10 season. Last year began as a mixed bag, but the 49ers ultimately pulled it together and fell just one game short of the Super Bowl.
Now, heading into 2022, they’re expected to hand the reins to Trey Lance. The North Dakota State product probably has head coach Kyle Shanahan salivating over his rushing ability, but it remains to be seen if he can support the 49ers’ pass-catchers over the course of a full season. San Francisco does, however, bring back its pass-catching core of George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, assuming Samuel and the Niners come to an agreement at some point in the offseason.
With a defense that projects to be above average, Lance is truly the biggest question mark. Unlike his draft class companions Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence, Lance’s team is completely ready to win a Super Bowl if it can get improved quarterback play.
If he can be consistent, use his legs and limit turnovers, San Francisco could be in the driver’s seat in the NFC West. If Lance struggles, the 49ers might have the lowest floor of any of the top-three teams in the division.
3. Arizona Cardinals
(FanDuel odds: +300)
Earlier this offseason, I wrote about why the Cardinals are a good fade heading into 2022 and I’ll back it up here in the context of the NFC West. The Rams are the defending champs and have endless talent, and the 49ers are fresh off an NFC Championship game appearance with a potential upgrade at QB. So, what about the Cardinals?
Arizona has dealt with a bit of turmoil this offseason. They lost Chase Edmonds and Christian Kirk to free agency, but the real blow was DeAndre Hopkins’ six-game suspension for violating the league’s PED policy. On top of that, Kyler Murray iced out the entire Cardinals franchise on social media, which led to reports that he was unhappy and potentially wanted out.
As a result, Arizona reunited their seemingly disgruntled quarterback with his favorite target from college, Marquise Brown. Brown’s speed and connection with Kyler will help the offense stay afloat until Hopkins returns and boost it when he’s back. The Cardinals also backfilled Edmonds with former Chiefs running back Darrel Williams. Williams should be a great fit behind James Conner, as both backs have versatile skillsets.
If Arizona is going to win the NFC West, it will be on the backs of Kyler and all of his weapons. The biggest reason the Cardinals won’t win the division is because of their defense. Last season, they skated by with a middle-of-the-pack defense thanks to a good offense (when Kyler was healthy) and top-10 pass rush. This offseason, the Cardinals lost Chandler Jones, who graded out as one of the league’s elite edge rushers.
4. Seattle Seahawks
(FanDuel odds: +1300)
It’s officially time for Seattle to turn the page on the franchise’s greatest era. After 10 seasons, four NFC West championships and a Super Bowl title with Russell Wilson leading the charge, the Seahawks traded the star quarterback to the Denver Broncos. As if that wasn’t enough, they also let longtime defensive captain Bobby Wagner walk in free agency and sign with their rival, the LA Rams.
In its first season without Wilson, Seattle will have to endure a treacherous uphill climb to compete for the NFC West crown. Unless the team goes out and acquires another signal caller, Geno Smith or Drew Lock will replace Wilson. According to our splits tool, the Seahawks averaged three-and-a-half fewer points, 67 fewer yards and one fewer touchdown per game in three contests without Wilson in 2021.
In its first season without Wagner, the Seahawks’ defense will need to find a way to replace the six-time All-Pro’s production, particularly in the run game. Seattle struggled mightily defending the pass last season, so a deteriorating run defense won’t do them any favors.
The Seahawks do still have talent, though. With DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett operating on the outside, whoever quarterbacks the team will have ample weapons. Although running back Chris Carson’s status is in jeopardy as he recovers from neck surgery, Rashaad Penny and rookie Ken Walker should be enough to hold down the backfield in a typically run-heavy offense.
It’ll be nearly impossible for the Seahawks to challenge any of its three division rivals in the standings, but there’s still enough skill and culture to make them competitive. If Seattle makes a move for a proven quarterback, it could shift the NFC West outlook.
