Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Thanks to one of the most eventful NFL offseasons of all time, the bridge between last year’s Super Bowl and next year’s opening kickoff has felt a little shorter than usual.
Still, to fans, summer’s arrival means our desire to consume all things football grows to nearly uncontainable levels. Talk shows, podcasts and Twitter timelines are zeroing in on the upcoming NFL season. Fantasy drafts and competitions are popping up left and right. Sportsbooks are taking bets on futures like division, conference and Super Bowl champions.
Throughout June and July, I’m going to attempt to feed your hunger for NFL content by previewing every division. I’ll cover key division storylines, provide a breakdown for each team and give out my pick to win each division.
(Check out the division previews so far: NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West | AFC East | AFC South | AFC West)
AFC North Preview
As the rest of the NFL has transitioned to a high-flying, fast-paced style of football, the AFC North has stuck to its grind-it-out, smash-mouth nature. That’s not to say there aren’t great offenses and elite playmakers, because there are, but teams in the AFC North play as if winning in the trenches means more.
The Baltimore Ravens have embraced physicality for years and have the best odds to be the 2022 AFC North division winner. Last season’s AFC champions, the Cincinnati Bengals trail closely behind. The Cleveland Browns put themselves in one of the most fascinating – and potentially disastrous – positions possible, and the Pittsburgh Steelers will know life without Ben Roethlisberger for the first time in nearly two decades.
1. Baltimore Ravens
(FanDuel Sportsbook division title odds: +155)
The 2021 season was almost derailed for the Ravens before it even began. In training camp, Baltimore lost a trio of running backs – J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill – and starting cornerback Marcus Peters to season-ending injuries.
Despite being decimated, the Ravens started off hot largely because of their MVP quarterback, Lamar Jackson. With a healthy Jackson, the Ravens went 7-4. Unfortunately, when he didn’t play – and when he played just 10 snaps against Cleveland – the Ravens mustered just a 1-5 record.
Jackson’s absence coincided with more Baltimore injuries as well, including lockdown cornerback Marlon Humphrey and star offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley. The Ravens were destined for mediocrity last season, and it’s even a bit impressive that they finished 8-9 with a shot at the playoffs considering the injuries they endured.
In 2022, everyone is healthy (knock on wood) and Baltimore added significant talent in the draft and through free agency. The Ravens’ secondary was putrid last season, so they signed elite safety Marcus Williams and selected Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton in the first round of the draft.
Offensively, Baltimore will look to revitalize its ground attack with a healthy Lamar, Dobbins, Edwards and Stanley. To make that even easier, with their second first-round pick, the Ravens selected Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum. Considering the team traded star wideout Marquise Brown to the Cardinals, it’ll lean on second-year receiver Rashaad Bateman and, of course, tight end Mark Andrews, to fuel the passing attack.
Baltimore will have to go from worst to first to prove oddsmakers correct, but that’s exactly what the Bengals did in this same division last season. Look for a healthy Ravens team to emerge from one of the NFL’s toughest divisions.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
(FanDuel odds: +180)
It’s reasonable to wonder how the reigning AFC champions aren’t favored to win their own division. The Bengals took the league by storm last season with star quarterback Joe Burrow leading the charge. Even behind a Swiss cheese offensive line, Burrow and his elite collection of weapons – Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon – made enough big plays in big moments to reach the Super Bowl.
Cincinnati has since patched up that offensive line that allowed nearly double-digit sacks to the Titans in the AFC Divisional Round. So, the Bengals coming in with the second-best odds to win the AFC North is less an indictment on them and more a nod to the Ravens’ strong offseason and health.
In 2022, the Bengals will bring back almost all of their major pieces, but oddsmakers aren’t quite giving them respect that’s typically earned by defending conference champs. The reality is that the Bengals overachieved according to a lot of advanced metrics and oddsmakers are betting that, because the team didn’t add significant talent, they won’t overachieve by nearly as much this season.
If Cincinnati succeeds in 2022 the way it did in 2021, it’ll be thanks to Joe Burrow and his elite passing attack. If the Bengals fail to live up the hype they created last season, we’ll probably see some struggles on the defensive side of the ball, where they were average or worse defending the run and rushing the passer.
3. Cleveland Browns
(FanDuel odds: +320)
As former Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster once said, “The Browns is the Browns.” Cleveland made the move of the offseason when it traded for superstar quarterback Deshaun Watson and gave him a fully guaranteed deal worth $230 million. However, Watson now faces a potentially indefinite suspension from the NFL, and the Browns’ near future looks cloudy.
With Watson on the field, the Browns would likely be the favorite to win the AFC North and one of the favorites to win the loaded AFC. Without him, Jacoby Brissett would be tasked with leading a Cleveland squad whose sights were set on the Super Bowl before Watson’s suspension appeared imminent.
Naturally, the Watson deal burned the bridge with former No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield, who will likely play elsewhere next season. The Browns also replaced the hole left by wide receiver Jarvis Landry by trading for Amari Cooper, so 2022 will bring a new look for Cleveland no matter what.
In 2021, the Browns’ offensive line finished as a top-three run-blocking unit, and they pave the way for perhaps the best running back duo in the NFL – Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. By leaning on the running game again, Cleveland could take some pressure off of the passing game and make some noise in the AFC North even without a star QB.
On defense, Cleveland had the highest coverage grade in the league last season. Couple that with an elite pass rush led by Myles Garrett, and the Browns have one of the most balanced and well-rounded teams in the NFL. Unfortunately for them, it’s still a quarterback-driven league.
If the Browns don’t have Watson for the majority or entirety of the season, they’ll likely take a backseat to the teams headed by former-MVP Lamar Jackson and reigning AFC champion Joe Burrow.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
(FanDuel odds: +850)
Ben Roethlisberger served as the face of the Steelers for nearly two decades, but his retirement leaves Pittsburgh in search of a new leader. It’s a tough task to replace a two-time Super Bowl champion and six-time Pro Bowler, but the Steelers will look to lean on their defense, much like they did in 2019 when Roethlisberger missed all but two games.
Hopefully, the Pittsburgh offense will fare better with Mitch Trubisky or first-round pick Kenny Pickett than it did with Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges. In 2019, the Steelers graded out as the worst offense in the NFL according to PFF, but their top-ranked defense allowed them to scrap their way to 8-8.
Whoever wins the quarterback battle in training camp will have an abundance of young playmakers at their disposal. Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and Pat Freiermuth make up one of the most talented skill groups in the NFL.
The offensive line should improve a little bit from last season as well and having a younger, more mobile quarterback should help the Steelers offense sustain drives more often. If the offense carries its weight, it will take some pressure off of Pittsburgh’s typically stout defense. That defense boasted an elite pass rush in 2021 thanks to T.J. Watt’s dominance, but their run defense and coverage grades lagged behind.
Elite offensive playmakers plus an elite pass rush is a great recipe for success in the NFL. If the Steelers can get improved quarterback play and limit bad mistakes in the secondary, they could prove that they’re being overlooked in the AFC playoff picture.
