Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Thanks to one of the most eventful NFL offseasons of all time, the bridge between last year’s Super Bowl and next year’s opening kickoff has felt a little shorter than usual.
Still, to fans, summer’s arrival means our desire to consume all things football grows to nearly uncontainable levels. Talk shows, podcasts and Twitter timelines are zeroing in on the upcoming NFL season. Fantasy drafts and competitions are popping up left and right. Sportsbooks are taking bets on futures like division, conference and Super Bowl champions.
Throughout June and July, I’m going to attempt to feed your hunger for NFL content by previewing every division. I’ll cover key division storylines, provide a breakdown for each team and give out my pick to win each division.
(Check out the division previews so far: NFC East | NFC South | NFC West | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West)
NFC North Preview
The Green Bay Packers have dominated the NFC North over the past three seasons, racking up an impressive 15-3 record against their division rivals. Aaron Rodgers is back despite a full year of speculation that he might be fed up with Packers leadership, and that means Green Bay is favored to win their fourth consecutive NFC North title.
The Vikings, Bears and Lions have all been little brother to Green Bay for several years, but the Packers might be a little more vulnerable in 2022 than in years past. I’m still picking Green Bay to win the division, but I’ll break down each team’s chances and explain why running roughshod through the NFC North may not be as easy for the Packers this time around.
1. Green Bay Packers
(FanDuel Sportsbook division title odds: -170)
Aaron Rodgers is back, so the Packers are going to cruise through the NFC North as usual, right? Maybe not. FanDuel gives Green Bay a 63% chance to win the division – the third-highest division winner odds in the NFL as of late June – but it hasn’t been all sunshine and rainbows this offseason.
Shortly after handing Rodgers a big bag of cash, the Packers traded away his favorite target and close friend, Davante Adams, to the Raiders. Field-stretcher Marquez Valdes-Scantling also walked out the door and signed with the Kansas City Chiefs. That leaves Green Bay unusually thin at wide receiver for the upcoming season, with a mix of unproven youngsters and veterans whose best days are behind them.
The Packers will, however, trot out the two-headed monster of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in the backfield. Green Bay figures to lean on their multi-talented running backs much like they did in the one game Adams missed in 2021. The duo averaged 28 combined touches per game last season but saw 38 in Adams’ absence.
On defense, Green Bay watched as edge rusher Za’Darius Smith signed with division rival Minnesota. While that’s a big loss, the Packers will benefit from the return of star cornerback Jaire Alexander. He’ll join an ascending young talent in Eric Stokes the defensive backfield, giving the Packers a top-notch secondary.
If the Packers falter and give up the NFC North for the first time in four years, it’ll likely be due to the lack of receiving weapons or their run-of-the-mill front-seven. Still, I’m more comfortable betting that Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur figure it out than I am predicting Kirk Cousins and the Vikings overtake them.
2. Minnesota Vikings
(FanDuel odds: +300)
Minnesota fired head coach Mike Zimmer and GM Rick Spielman after the team failed to reach the playoffs for the second consecutive season, but in 2022, the Vikings easily represent the biggest challenge to the Packers in the NFC North.
This offseason, new Vikings leadership – head coach Kevin O’Connell and GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah – let linebacker Anthony Barr walk, retained edge rusher Danielle Hunter and added former Packer Za’Darius Smith. Smith racked up 26 sacks across two seasons with Green Bay before missing all but two games in 2021. The Vikings ranked near the top of the league in sacks and pressure rate last season, so Smith should help strengthen an already-solid defensive front.
The real fun, though, is on the offensive side of the ball in Minnesota. A skill group of Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and a healthy Irv Smith gives QB Kirk Cousins one of the most feared arsenals in the NFL. In fact, Cousins and company exploded for 34 points in a home victory over Green Bay in week 11.
With a solid front-seven and elite offensive skill players, only a couple things stand in the way of the Vikings overcoming the odds and ending the Packers’ reign of terror in the NFC North. First, young offensive linemen Christian Darrisaw and Ed Ingram will need to step up and play big roles. Second, Minnesota will need to strike a perfect balance in the secondary with a mix of aging stars and young talent. Anything less means they’ll end up as little brother to Aaron Rodgers once again.
3. Chicago Bears
(FanDuel odds: +950)
When Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson arrived in the Windy City in 2018, the future looked brighter for Chicago than it had in almost a decade. Those two, along with Mitch Trubisky, delivered a 12-4 record in their first year together but failed to replicate that success. Now, in 2022, all three players have moved on and the Bears are left with a new coaching staff, a new GM and a new young QB to take them to the Promised Land.
During his rookie year, Justin Fields showed flashes of his dazzling athleticism and feathery touch. He also fell victim to a scheme that wasn’t designed to maximize his strengths and an offensive line that ranked toward the bottom of the NFL in just about every pass blocking metric.
The Bears’ 9.5% implied division winner probability indicates that they almost certainly won’t challenge the Packers and Vikings for an NFC North title. There’s more merit in projecting that Justin Fields takes a step forward and grows with a new head coach and offensive coordinator.
David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert make for a really nice backfield, and Darnell Mooney flashed his ability to be “the guy” in 2021. The new coaching staff will likely lean on that trio of weapons, along with tight end Cole Kmet, to take pressure off Fields.
Chicago’s ceiling largely depends on Fields’ development and Fields’ development largely depends on the offensive line being able to keep him on his feet. Fields more than doubled his passing grade last season when he wasn’t under pressure compared to when he was. Unfortunately, the Bears allowed a league-leading 58 sacks and didn’t do much to improve their offensive line situation.
4. Detroit Lions
(FanDuel odds: +850)
Dan Campbell and the Lions became the darlings of the NFL last season after losing a few heartbreakers en route to a winless first 11 weeks. The Lions finished the year with a 3-13-1 record, but they lost five games by four points or less. What they lacked in talent, they tried to make up for in heart.
In 2022, they’ll have to do the same. Sure, drafting Aidan Hutchinson at No. 2 overall is exciting, but the Lions’ biggest free agent move was signing wide receiver DJ Chark. They simply didn’t add the necessary talent to be relevant in the NFC North. The defense also remains a work-in-progress and QB Jared Goff has the lowest ceiling of any QB in the division.
Despite the fact that the Lions aren’t ready to compete for an NFC North title, there are a handful of reasons for optimism. Detroit has a couple young studs on the offense. Running back D’Andre Swift will again be operating behind one of the league’s elite offensive lines, and Amon-Ra St. Brown surprised many as one of the best rookie wide receivers in a loaded class.
Additionally, Campbell appears to have the buy-in of fans, players and ownership. He’s attempting to build a winning culture for a franchise that has been allergic to it for decades. Yes, the Lions won just three games in 2021 and finished last in the division, but a lot of people believe they overachieved. Whether you agree or disagree, there is palpable buzz in Detroit surrounding the young Lions.
