Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The past two football seasons kept oddsmakers on their toes with a couple tweaks that greatly impacted the NFL playoff odds market. In 2020, the NFL playoffs expanded to seven teams in each conference, and in 2021, the league added an extra regular season game.
Now, we’ll take a look at what is presumably a sharper NFL playoff odds market after a year’s worth of data captured the league’s recent changes.
The latest odds at FanDuel Sportsbook suggest that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-750) and Buffalo Bills (-600) have the best shot at qualifying for the postseason in 2022. On the flip side, the Houston Texans find themselves in a sadly familiar place as they currently have the worst odds to make the NFL playoffs (+1500).
2022 NFL Playoff Odds
Below is every team’s odds to make the playoffs in 2022, per FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Arizona Cardinals +118
- Atlanta Falcons +790
- Baltimore Ravens -156
- Buffalo Bills -600
- Carolina Panthers +400
- Chicago Bears +410
- Cincinnati Bengals -144
- Cleveland Browns +138
- Dallas Cowboys -260
- Denver Broncos -146
- Detroit Lions +410
- Green Bay Packers -500
- Houston Texans +1500
- Indianapolis Colts -172
- Jacksonville Jaguars +450
- Kansas City Chiefs -225
- Las Vegas Raiders +170
- Los Angeles Chargers -162
- Los Angeles Rams -270
- Miami Dolphins +142
- Minnesota Vikings -118
- New England Patriots +160
- New Orleans Saints +118
- New York Giants +225
- New York Jets +710
- Philadelphia Eagles -178
- Pittsburgh Steelers +330
- San Francisco 49ers -198
- Seattle Seahawks +500
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -650
- Tennessee Titans -110
- Washington Commanders +152
Best Bet for Team to Make the 2022 NFL Playoffs
Minnesota Vikings (-118)
Under the leadership of new head coach Kevin O’Connell, I fully expect the Vikings to unlock their offense and ride all of their great weapons to the playoffs. O’Connell comes over from the Rams, who passed at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL last season compared to the Vikings’ 16th-highest rate.
With pass-catchers like Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith and Dalvin Cook, Kirk Cousins should be able to run the best offense in the NFC North. The Packers typically hold that title, but Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay might be a little vulnerable this season without Davante Adams.
On defense, the Vikings retained Danielle Hunter and added former Packer Za’Darius Smith to bolster the pass rush. Over Smith’s last two healthy seasons, he made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks, producing 26 sacks.
From a scheduling perspective, Minnesota benefits from a divisional matchup with the NFC East – one of the league’s weaker divisions – and they play the odds-on favorite Dallas Cowboys at home. On top of that, they’ll again have four combined games against their Bears and Lions, teams that simply don’t stack up with them on paper.
An electric offense, solid defense, generous schedule and abnormally weak NFC should allow the Vikings to make their way back to the playoffs after a two-year hiatus.
Best Bets for Team to Miss the 2022 NFL Playoffs
Cleveland Browns (-170)
I get that -170 is a tough number to sell on a best bet, but it really stood out to me. We now know that Deshaun Watson won’t be the quarterback of the Cleveland Browns for at least the first 11 games of the season. Once he’s eligible to return, there’s no guarantee he starts right away considering he can’t practice until Nov. 14.
Even if he does start, is he going to be the Deshaun Watson of old? He looked awful in his brief preseason action and hasn’t played in a regular season game since 2020. With Jacoby Brissett for at least two-thirds of the season and a potentially rusty Watson for just one-third, I don’t see the Browns making the playoffs in the AFC despite having an otherwise complete roster.
There are seven spots up for grabs and there’s a case to be made that the Browns aren’t a top-10 team in the AFC with Brissett leading the way. Even if they are, the AFC North isn’t doing them any favors, and they have to play the AFC East and NFC South this year. Without Watson, the Browns will visit the Bills and Dolphins while hosting the Bucs. Brutal.
Simply put, I’m not overthinking the discrepancy between Brissett and the elite quarterbacks residing in the AFC.
How to Bet on NFL Odds to Make the Playoffs
Step 1: Set up a sports betting account
Setting up a sportsbook account is a simple process, and it would be wise to do so on as many as possible. All they need is some basic information, and then you’ll be ready to place your first wager in no time. It is essential to have multiple accounts to shop for odds and take advantage of all the free money books like to hand out to new users.
Step 2: Deposit money into your account
Essentially every book will have some kind of deposit bonus for you after you sign up. So be sure to weigh your options once your account is made.
Step 3: Make an NFL Playoffs Bet
Find a team whose odds you particularly like — maybe one of the above suggestions or your own — and place a bet early before the odds move against you.
