Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Thanks to one of the most eventful NFL offseasons of all time, the bridge between last year’s Super Bowl and next year’s opening kickoff has felt a little shorter than usual.
Still, to fans, summer’s arrival means our desire to consume all things football grows to nearly uncontainable levels. Talk shows, podcasts and Twitter timelines are zeroing in on the upcoming NFL season. Fantasy drafts and competitions are popping up left and right. Sportsbooks are taking bets on futures like division, conference and Super Bowl champions.
Throughout June and July, I’m going to attempt to feed your hunger for NFL content by previewing every division. I’ll cover key division storylines, provide a breakdown for each team and give out my pick to win each division.
(Check out the division previews so far: NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South)
AFC West Preview
According to oddsmakers, the AFC West is the cream of the crop in the NFL and has the best chance of any division to produce the next Super Bowl champ. If it’s not the best division, it at least projects to be one of the most exciting.
The AFC West boasts four Pro-Bowl quarterbacks, an impressive group of running backs and extremely talented wide receivers. The offenses in this division are going to create fireworks week in and week out, so the team with the most capable defense will be the one to take the crown.
1. Los Angeles Chargers
(FanDuel Sportsbook division title odds: +250)
Chargers head coach Brandon Staley made a reputation for himself in his first season with his aggressive fourth-down playcalling. This offseason, the front office matched Staley’s “all in” demeanor by adding Pro-Bowl corner J.C. Jackson and three-time All-Pro Khalil Mack to the defense.
Mack and Joey Bosa should give Los Angeles a scary pass rush, and Jackson will help a secondary that ranked 25th in forced incompletions last season. If the defense can catch up to the offense, the Chargers could very well knock off the Chiefs and take the AFC West.
On offense, Justin Herbert leads a high-powered and explosive passing attack. Not only does Herbert have Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the outside, he has one of the league’s premiere pass-catching backs in Austin Ekeler.
To claim their first AFC West title since 2009, the Chargers will have to dethrone Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Improving an already solid pass rush and getting much-needed help in the secondary is a great start. The LA offense should also be able to tear up a weakened Kansas City secondary that it averaged 29 points against last season.
With another step forward for Herbert, an improved defense and a vulnerable Chiefs team, look for the Chargers to emerge from the NFL’s top division.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
(FanDuel odds: +150)
Despite the Chiefs making three straight AFC Championship appearances, I’m picking them to finish second to the Chargers in their own division. Am I a mad man? It’s possible. Picking against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid feels gross, but it comes down to the offseason moves made throughout the AFC West.
Kansas City traded superstar receiver Tyreek Hill and let veteran safety Tyrann Mathieu walk in free agency. Replacing both players is a tall task and even if the Chiefs fill those spots adequately, they likely won’t improve them. Don’t hear what I’m not saying, though. Kansas City still has the talent and experience to win the division, but it’s hard to ignore how much better its rivals got this offseason.
Mahomes and company love to pick defenses apart from behind what is now an elite offensive line. So, the Chargers went out and acquired players who will pressure Mahomes up front and players who will make life difficult for his receivers on the back end.
Defensively, the Chiefs were actually solid against the pass, but they lost the aforementioned Mathieu and cornerback Charvarius Ward, who allowed the lowest completion percentage and open target percentage of any Kansas City defensive back.
The Broncos and Raiders also got better in the offseason, which will make escaping the AFC West even more difficult for the Chiefs than it has been in years past. The Chargers obviously face the same challenge, but the Chiefs may not be as well-equipped to handle it this go-around.
3. Denver Broncos
(FanDuel odds: +250)
There were a ton of monumental moves this offseason, so it’s tough to pinpoint one as the move, but the Broncos made their case when they acquired future Hall of Famer Russell Wilson from the Seahawks.
The Super Bowl champion quarterback will be dropped into an offense with an embarrassment of riches, maybe more than Wilson has ever had. The Denver wide receiver room goes about four deep with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler, plus Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon make for one of the best running back duos in the NFL.
Offensive line play, however, may be the biggest benefit for Wilson. The Broncos’ line isn’t necessarily elite, but it did grade out as the ninth-best pass blocking unit in the league last season per PFF. That’s far better than the Seahawks’ 26th-ranked unit that tried to protect Wilson in 2021.
There’s no doubt the offense will improve significantly with Wilson at the helm, but the once-feared Denver defense needs to follow suit. Last season, it took a step back and wasn’t anything more than mediocre. A potentially top-tier offense will make life easier for the defense, though, and the Broncos added a couple pieces on the defensive line to shore things up.
If Denver wants to win the division, it’ll need Wilson to stay healthy and the defense to do enough to slow down the lethal passing attacks of the other three AFC West offenses. If it can’t slow them down, it will be tough sledding for the Broncos once again.
4. Las Vegas Raiders
(FanDuel odds: +700)
Just like how someone has to win the AFC South, someone has to finish last in the AFC West. Whoever comes in last in this division may end up as one of the best last-place teams in recent memory, at least on paper.
Every AFC West team got a shiny new toy this offseason, and the Raiders are no exception. They reunited Derek Carr with his college teammate and two-time All-Pro Davante Adams. Adams will give Las Vegas a true No. 1 receiver and allow Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow to play ancillary roles.
That trio of pass-catchers, combined with running back Josh Jacobs, gives Derek Carr his best supporting cast since entering the league in 2014. While the offense figures to take a step forward, the common theme in the AFC West is that the defense needs to be able to stop the other offenses.
The Raiders’ defense was a bit perplexing last season. Despite ranking 20th in total defense, fifth in pass rush and 15th in coverage according to PFF, Las Vegas was fifth worst in expected points allowed per play. That suggests the defense got a bit lucky or at least overachieved.
With the least reliable defense in the division and the least accomplished – albeit still very accomplished – quarterback, the Raiders are the default pick for last place. They’d likely be a more serious threat in any other division, and I still wouldn’t be shocked if they sneaked their way into the playoffs again, but it’s too tough to pick them over their division foes.
