Handicapping the fantasy football FFPC Playoff Challenge

The Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) Playoff Challenge is back for the 2020-2021 NFL season. The main event is a $200 entry fee with a top prize of $500,000 and over $1 million in total prize money.

You can take a look at the official rules and scoring settings here, but the primary thing to know is that you will pick a total of 12 players — 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 4 flex, 1 K, 1 DST — but only one player from each team is allowed. So if you take Tom Brady at QB, for example, you can’t have any other Bucs players on your team.

You set your lineup once (before Wild Card weekend) and it stays that way for the whole playoffs. So choose carefully. Yours truly is competing under the team name Loechner’s Peaches.

Key things to consider in the FFPC Playoff Challenge

• This is a large-field tournament with over 6,000 people, so you’ll have to get contrarian/gain leverage with some of your picks. It’s tempting to just “pick the best players” — because you can — but game theory matters here.
• You obviously want players who will play the most games, but choosing the right one- and two-offs is also extremely important. You’ll have rooting interest in 12 teams, which will quickly whittle to 8, 4 and 2. The teams thin out quickly.
• Correlation matters in this tournament. You’re not going to accurately predict every single game flow of every single possible outcome of the whole playoffs, but you can still correlate your teams to an extent, and you should.

Odds of each team to make the Super Bowl

Here are the odds of each team to make it to the Super Bowl:

AFC:

Kansas City Chiefs: 5/6
Buffalo Bills: 7/2
Baltimore Ravens: 7/1
Pittsburgh Steelers: 10/1
Tennessee Titans: 13/1
Indianapolis Colts: 15/1
Cleveland Browns: 18/1

In the AFC, the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens have solid odds of playing 2-3 games.

NFC:

Green Bay Packers: 8/5
New Orleans Saints: 11/4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 4/1
Seattle Seahawks: 9/2
Los Angeles Rams: 12/1
Chicago Bears: 33/1
Washington Football Team: 33/1

In the NFC, the Packers, Saints, Buccaneers and Seahawks have solid odds of playing 2-3 games.

(Want to play in the FFPC Playoff Challenge? Click here!)

How many games each team is projected to play

The below were compiled using my own projections for the playoffs.

(Want to see more research on playoff projections? FTN’s Jeff Ratcliffe also has projected games played as well as rankings and projected playoff fantasy football points for key players — check it out.)

Let’s go through thoughts on a team-by-team basis.

Kansas City Chiefs (1)

Top options: Patrick Mahomes (QB), Tyreek Hill (WR), Travis Kelce (TE)
Other options: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)

Notes: The Chiefs don’t play in the first round, so you’re missing those points no matter what … FFPC is TE premium, so Kelce may be the highest-owned player in the tournament … Those who don’t take Kelce will take Mahomes over Hill, leaving Hill as the lowest-owned of the Big 3 … If you’re fading all three of Mahomes/Hill/Kelce, take CEH as the pivot.

Green Bay Packers (1)

Top options: Aaron Rodgers (QB), Aaron Jones (RB), Davante Adams (WR)
Other options: Robert Tonyan (TE)

Notes: Adams may be the highest-owned player in the whole tournament, which will keep Rodgers’ ownership in check … Aaron Jones is a great pivot from Adams/Rodgers lineups; if the TDs go to him, it means it’s hurting both Rodgers and Adams … Tonyan is one of the top five TEs in the tournament, but you’ll need TDs to get there.

Buffalo Bills (2)

Top options: Josh Allen (QB), Stefon Diggs (WR)
Other options: Zack Moss (RB), Devin Singletary (RB), Cole Beasley (WR), John Brown (WR)

Notes: Allen has a chance to play all four games and is the top QB of the tournament … Even with Allen as the top QB option, Diggs’ ownership will be high since you can play up to six WRs and only one QB (e.g. people will view Diggs as the cheaper opportunity cost) … Cole Beasley had five 100-yard games this season … Buffalo’s RBs are the ultimate pivot from the passing attack, though if they make a deep playoff run, it’s probably not going to be because of their RBs.

New Orleans Saints (2)

Top options: Alvin Kamara (RB), Michael Thomas (WR)
Other options: Drew Brees (QB), Emmanuel Sanders (WR), Jared Cook (TE)

Notes: COVID-19 (Kamara) and injury (Thomas) news will play a major factor in which Saints are optimal … Kamara will be one of the three highest-owned players in the tournament, which will make Thomas contrarian … Brees is on the list because the Saints have a realistic shot at playing two home games, the second of which would be a likely shootout.

Pittsburgh Steelers (3)

Top options: Diontae Johnson (WR), Pittsburgh DST (DST)
Other options: James Conner (RB), JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR), Chase Claypool (WR), Eric Ebron (TE)

Notes: Choosing the right Steelers skill player will be hard, but Johnson sees the most steady volume … Pittsburgh D is viable in case Big Ben spread it around.

Seattle Seahawks (3)

Top options: DK Metcalf (WR)
Other options: Russell Wilson (QB), Tyler Lockett (WR), Chris Carson (RB), Jason Myers (K), Seattle DST (DST)

Notes: Recency bias may keep more people off Metcalf, especially after Lockett’s big Week 17 game (12-90-2) … Wilson is in play as the Seahawks have a legitimate shot of playing 3-4 games, and his ownership will be very low because the team hasn’t let him cook in a while … Seattle’s DST is in play if they have a Wild Card matchup against a backup QB (watch out for Jared Goff news).

Tennessee Titans (4)

Top options: Derrick Henry (RB), A.J. Brown (WR)
Other options: Ryan Tannehill (QB), Corey Davis (WR), Jonnu Smith (TE)

Notes: Henry just ran for over 2k and the public will be all over him and the “Henry runs for 200 yards every game in the winter” narrative … Brown has just as high a ceiling as Henry in this format … With the Titans, you’ll have to pick your narrative: Will they be winning (e.g. lots of Henry) or losing (e.g. the passing attack) … Davis had five games with over 100 yards, and he scored in three of those games … Smith scored 0.5 TDs per game.

Washington Football Team (4)

Top options: Terry McLaurin (WR), Logan Thomas (TE)
Other options: Antonio Gibson (RB), J.D. McKissic (RB), Washington DST (DST)

Notes: The WFT is expected to lose in Round 1, and even if they don’t, they’ll likely be playing from behind most of the game, making the passing options the best choices … if Washington does beat the Bucs in Round 1, their D will likely have had a very good game … this team is a full fade candidate in FFPC.

(Want to play in the FFPC Playoff Challenge? Click here!)

Baltimore Ravens (5)

Top options: Lamar Jackson (QB)
Other options: J.K. Dobbins (RB), Marquise Brown (WR), Mark Andrews (TE), Justin Tucker (K)

Notes: Jackson has been 2019 levels of good since his return from the Reserve/COVID-19 list and has a good chance to play in back-to-back shootouts to start the playoffs if they win in Round 1 … the possibility for shootouts makes the primary passing options, and Tucker, interesting options as well … Dobbins has at least 1 TD in six straight games, but no game with more than 15 total touches.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5)

Top options: Tom Brady (QB), Ronald Jones (RB), Mike Evans (WR), Chris Godwin (WR)
Other options: Antonio Brown (WR), Rob Gronkowski (TE)

Notes: The Bucs have one of the best chances to make a deep playoff run of the Wild Card teams … Brady has been on fire lately, with multiple TDs in seven straight games and over 340 passing yards in four of his last five … The Bucs passing offense spreads the wealth, but Evans is a premiere red zone target and Godwin has 4 TDs in his last three games … Ronald Jones was the clear lead back even when Leonard Fournette was healthy and had four games with over 100 rushing yards this year, including three straight in October … Antonio Brown came on late but strong … Gronk remains an excellent big-play and red-zone threat.

Cleveland Browns (6)

Top options: Nick Chubb (RB)
Other options: Kareem Hunt (RB), Jarvis Landry (WR), Austin Hooper (TE)

Notes: COVID-19 news is paramount for the Browns this week, so stay on top of it … Cleveland is a possible full fade team, but their offense is condensed enough around Chubb/Hunt/Landry/Hooper that they all make for fine one-offs.

Los Angeles Rams (6)

Top options: Cam Akers (RB), Robert Woods (WR)
Other options: Cooper Kupp (WR)

Notes: Akers is hurt, but he still had 25 touches last week … if Jared Goff can’t play, the Rams become a possible full fade … Playing catchup to the Seahawks in Round 1, followed by a likely date with the Packers in Round 2, does make Woods/Kupp interesting as one-offs.

Indianapolis Colts (7)

Top options: Jonathan Taylor (RB)
Other options: Nyheim Hines (RB), T.Y. Hilton (WR), Rodrigo Blankenship (K)

Notes: The Colts are a full fade option … This offense now belongs to Taylor, and he should see enough volume to be a solid one-off … Blankenship is a decent one-off option too at the K position, as the Round 1 matchup with the Bills will be high-scoring … Hines and Hilton are lower-owned options, assuming the Colts are playing catch-up all game(s).

Chicago Bears (7)

Top options: David Montgomery (RB), Allen Robinson (WR)
Other options: Darnell Mooney (WR), Jimmy Graham (TE), Cole Kmet (TE)

Notes: The Bears are a full fade option, but Montgomery has been on fire and Robinson is elite, so they are both perfectly fine one-offs … Mooney and the TEs are probably too cute even as one-offs, but they all have some TD equity.