NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to the Week 16 fantasy football start/sit column, where I have detailed which players you should start and sit this week based on their recent trends, matchups, and other game contexts.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Week 16 Start/Sit: Quarterbacks
Tom Brady, Bucs at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 11th, +2 vs. consensus (13th)
+ Efficiency: Tom Brady has thrown just 20 touchdowns but has 28.23 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 8.23-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Zach Wilson, (46 degrees with high forecasted winds and an 89% chance of rain)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 19th, +1 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Venue: Zach Wilson has averaged 7.1 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two seasons.
+ Opponent: The Jaguars have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, third most in football.
– Volume: High forecasted winds and an 89% chance of rain will likely skew the Jets’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers at Dolphins (51 degrees and cloudy)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 12th, -1 vs. consensus (11th)
– Venue: Aaron Rodgers has averaged 1.7 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last three seasons.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars at Jets (46 degrees with high forecasted winds and an 89% chance of rain)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 14th, -4 vs. consensus (10th)
– Volume: High forecasted winds and an 89% chance of rain will likely skew the Jaguars’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.35 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Jared Goff, Lions at Panthers (33 degrees and sunny)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 15th, -1 vs. consensus (14th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Lions’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Venue: Jared Goff has averaged 1.6 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last three seasons.
– Opponent: The Panthers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.19 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Brock Purdy, 49ers vs. Commanders (58 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 16th, -1 vs. consensus (15th)
– Efficiency: Brock Purdy has thrown 6 touchdowns but has just 2.46 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that eighth highest 3.54-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Commanders have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.13 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
Derek Carr, Raiders at Steelers (11 degrees with high forecasted winds and a 40% chance of snow)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 17th, -1 vs. consensus (16th)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures, high forecasted winds, and a 40% chance of snow will likely skew the Raiders’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Steelers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.24 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Gardner Minshew, Eagles at Cowboys (Dome)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 18th, -1 vs. consensus (17th)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.19 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Deshaun Watson, Browns vs. Saints (11 degrees with high forecasted winds and a 49% chance of light snow)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 20th, -2 vs. consensus (18th)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures, high forecasted winds, and a 49% chance of light snow will likely skew the Browns’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Deshaun Watson has thrown just 2 touchdowns but has 4.92 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.92-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Sam Darnold, Panthers vs. Lions (33 degrees and sunny)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 21st, -2 vs. consensus (18th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Panthers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.31 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Mac Jones, Patriots vs. Bengals (23 degrees with high forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 23rd, -1 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and high forecasted winds will likely skew the Patriots’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, tied for sixth most in football.
+ Venue: Mac Jones has averaged 3.2 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last three seasons.
Kenny Pickett, Steelers vs. Raiders (11 degrees with high forecasted winds and a 40% chance of snow)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 24th, -1 vs. consensus (23rd)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures, high forecasted winds, and a 40% chance of snow will likely skew the Raiders’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.15 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Week 16 Start/Sit: Running Backs
Travis Etienne, Jaguars at Jets (46 degrees with high forecasted winds and an 89% chance of rain)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 13th, +4 vs. consensus (17th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Travis Etienne for 20.1 carries + targets this week, seventh at his position (he has averaged 18.3 carries + targets since the team traded James Robinson before Week 8).
+ Volume: High forecasted winds and an 89% chance of rain will likely skew the Jaguars’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Etienne has just 4 touchdowns but has 8.27 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 4.27-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.24 per game in 2022, tied for sixth most in football.
Isiah Pacheco, Chiefs vs. Seahawks (16 degrees and sunny)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 19th, +4 vs. consensus (23rd)
+ Volume: Extremely cold temperatures will likely skew the Chiefs’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Isiah Pacheco has just 3 touchdowns but has 4.48 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.48-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Latavius Murray, Broncos at Rams (Dome)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 20th, +4 vs. consensus (24th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Latavius Murray for 18.7 carries + targets this week, 12th at his position (he has averaged 18.3 carries + targets since he became the starter in Week 12).
Rachaad White, Bucs at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 25th, +1 vs. consensus (26th)
+ Efficiency: Rachaad White has just 2 touchdowns but has 3.59 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.59-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.27 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Leonard Fournette, Bucs at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 26th, +1 vs. consensus (27th)
+ Efficiency: Leonard Fournette has just 6 touchdowns but has 8.45 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.45-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.27 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Zonovan Knight, Jets vs. Jaguars (46 degrees with high forecasted winds and an 89% chance of rain)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 27th, +1 vs. consensus (28th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Zonovan Knight for 17.2 carries + targets this week, 18th at his position (he has averaged 17.3 carries + targets in 2022).
+ Volume: High forecasted winds and an 89% chance of rain will likely skew the Jets’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Knight has just 1 touchdown but has 2.00 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.00-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Devin Singletary, Bills at Bears (12 degrees with high forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 28th, +1 vs. consensus (29th)
+ Volume: Extremely cold temperatures and high forecasted winds will likely skew the Bills’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Bears have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.54 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Jamaal Williams, Lions at Panthers (33 degrees and sunny)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 29th, +1 vs. consensus (30th)
+ Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Lions’ pass/run balance toward the run.
AJ Dillon, Packers at Dolphins (51 degrees and cloudy)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 30th, +1 vs. consensus (31st)
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
D’Onta Foreman, Panthers vs. Lions (33 degrees and sunny)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 32nd, +3 vs. consensus (35th)
+ Volume: I am projecting D’Onta Foreman for 17.1 carries + targets this week, tied for 19th at his position (he has averaged 19.3 carries + targets since the team traded Christian McCaffrey before Week 7).
+ Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Panthers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Foreman has just 4 touchdowns but has 5.74 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.74-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.08 per game since Week 11, dramatically down from their 0.50 average in 2022 but still ninth most in football.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons at Ravens (22 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 33rd, +3 vs. consensus (36th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Cordarrelle Patterson for 15.0 carries + targets this week, 23rd at his position (he has averaged 12.7 carries + targets since he returned from injured reserve in Week 9 and should see more volume with Caleb Huntley on injured reserve).
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Falcons’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Tyler Allgeier, Falcons at Ravens (22 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 36th, +1 vs. consensus (37th)
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Falcons’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Gus Edwards, Ravens vs. Falcons (22 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 41st, +1 vs. consensus (42nd)
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Ravens’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.27 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Khalil Herbert, Bears vs. Bills (12 degrees with high forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 44th, +14 vs. consensus (58th – this reflects uncertainty of whether Herbert will play, but he came off of injured reserve, and Bears head coach Matt Eberflus told reporters Herbert is ready to play)
+ Volume: I am projecting Khalil Herbert for 10.4 carries + targets this week, 42nd at his position (he has averaged 10.6 carries + targets in the nine games he’s played alongside David Montgomery in 2022).
+ Volume: Extremely cold temperatures and high forecasted winds will likely skew the Bears’ pass/run balance toward the run.
J.K. Dobbins, Ravens vs. Falcons (22 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 21st, -2 vs. consensus (19th)
– Volume: I am projecting J.K. Dobbins for 12.7 carries + targets this week, 35th at his position (he has averaged 11.2 carries + targets in five healthy games in 2022).
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Ravens’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.27 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs vs. Seahawks (16 degrees and sunny)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -8 vs. consensus (14th)
– Volume: I am projecting Jerick McKinnon for 13.0 carries + targets this week, 34th at his position (he has averaged 10.9 carries + targets since Clyde Edwards-Helaire saw a reduced role in Week 9).
+ Opponent: The Seahawks have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Cam Akers, Rams vs. Broncos (Dome)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 35th, -3 vs. consensus (32nd)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.36 per game in 2022, tied for second most in football.
Jordan Mason, 49ers vs. Commanders (58 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 52nd, -2 vs. consensus (50th)
– Opponent: The Commanders have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.25 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
Royce Freeman, Texans at Titans (21 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 53rd, +2 vs. consensus (51st)
– Opponent: The Titans have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.25 per game in 2022, tied for fourth most in football.
+ Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Texans’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Week 16 Start/Sit: Wide Receivers
Mike Evans, Bucs at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 16th, +3 vs. consensus (19th)
+ Efficiency: Mike Evans has caught just 3 touchdowns but has 5.25 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth-biggest 2.25-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Michael Pittman, Colts vs. Chargers (Dome)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 17th, +7 vs. consensus (24th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Michael Pittman for 9.7 targets this week, tied for fifth at his position (he has averaged 9.3 targets in 2022).
Demarcus Robinson, Ravens vs. Falcons (22 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 48th, +8 vs. consensus (56th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Demarcus Robinson for 6.3 targets this week, tied for 34th at his position (he has averaged 6.4 targets since Week 7 and should face less competition for targets with Devin Duvernay on injured reserve).
+ Efficiency: Robinson has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.61 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.61-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Ravens’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Tutu Atwell, Rams vs. Broncos (Dome)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 56th, +7 vs. consensus (63rd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Tutu Atwell for 6.2 targets this week, tied for 37th at his position (he has averaged 6.0 targets since he became a starter in Week 13 and should face less competition for targets with Ben Skowronek on injured reserve).
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.45 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Garrett Wilson, Jets vs. Jaguars (46 degrees with high forecasted winds and an 89% chance of rain)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 22nd, -6 vs. consensus (16th)
– Volume: High forecasted winds and an 89% chance of rain will likely skew the Jets’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Volume: I am projecting Garrett Wilson for 6.7 targets this week, tied for 31st at his position (he has averaged 5.9 targets in eight Zach Wilson starts vs. 10.5 targets in six Mike White and Joe Flacco starts).
+ Opponent: The Jaguars have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Christian Watson, Packers at Dolphins (51 degrees and cloudy)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 23rd, -5 vs. consensus (18th)
– Volume: I am projecting Christian Watson for 7.0 targets this week, 29th at his position (he has averaged 6.6 targets since Week 10).
– Efficiency: Christian Watson has caught 7 touchdowns but has just 3.64 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that sixth highest 3.36-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
DJ Moore, Panthers vs. Lions (33 degrees and sunny)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 25th, -2 vs. consensus (23rd)
– Volume: Cold temperatures will likely skew the Lions’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.31 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Zay Jones, Jaguars at Jets (46 degrees with high forecasted winds and an 89% chance of rain)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 27th, -1 vs. consensus (26th)
– Volume: High forecasted winds and an 89% chance of rain will likely skew the Jaguars’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: Sauce Gardner has allowed just a 44% catch rate on their targets this season, the lowest among cornerbacks with 300 or more routes in coverage.
– Opponent: The Jets have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.35 per game in 2022, second most in football.
Amari Cooper, Browns vs. Saints (11 degrees with high forecasted winds and a 49% chance of light snow)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 28th, -1 vs. consensus (27th)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures, high forecasted winds, and a 49% chance of light snow will likely skew the Browns’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: Tre’Davious White has allowed just a 52% catch rate on their targets this season, 10th lowest among cornerbacks with 100 or more routes in coverage.
Drake London, Falcons at Ravens (22 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 33rd, -1 vs. consensus (32nd)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Falcons’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Gabe Davis, Bills at Bears (12 degrees with high forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 34th, -1 vs. consensus (33rd)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures and high forecasted winds will likely skew the Bills’ pass/run balance toward the run.
George Pickens, Steelers vs. Raiders (11 degrees with high forecasted winds and a 40% chance of snow)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 37th, -1 vs. consensus (36th)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures, high forecasted winds, and a 40% chance of snow will likely skew the Raiders’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.15 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
Jakobi Meyers, Patriots vs. Bengals (23 degrees with high forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 39th, -1 vs. consensus (38th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and high forecasted winds will likely skew the Patriots’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, tied for sixth most in football.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns vs. Saints (11 degrees with high forecasted winds and a 49% chance of light snow)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 40th, -1 vs. consensus (39th)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures, high forecasted winds, and a 49% chance of light snow will likely skew the Browns’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Efficiency: Donovan Peoples-Jones has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 4.11 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that eighth biggest 2.11-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Chris Moore, Texans at Titans (21 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 41st, -1 vs. consensus (40th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Texans’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Marquise Goodwin, Seahawks at Chiefs (16 degrees and sunny)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 42nd, -1 vs. consensus (41st)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures will likely skew the Seahawks’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Marquise Goodwin has caught 4 touchdowns but has just 1.93 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.07-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.42 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Week 16 Start/Sit: Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth, Steelers vs. Raiders (11 degrees with high forecasted winds and a 40% chance of snow)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 7th, +1 vs. consensus (8th)
+ Efficiency: Pat Freiermuth has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 3.40 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.40-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Raiders have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.15 per game in 2022, tied for seventh most in football.
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures, high forecasted winds, and a 40% chance of snow will likely skew the Raiders’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Hayden Hurst, Bengals at Patriots (23 degrees with high forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 15th, +33 vs. consensus (48th – this reflects uncertainty of whether Hurst will play, but Hurst practiced on Wednesday and told reporters he expects to play)
+ Volume: I am projecting Hayden Hurst for 4.4 targets this week, tied for 15th at his position (he has averaged 5.3 targets in 2022).
– Volume: Cold temperatures and high forecasted winds will likely skew the Bengals’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Patriots have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.14 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Cade Otton, Bucs at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 22nd, +2 vs. consensus (24th)
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have allowed 14.8 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, the most in football.
Robert Tonyan, Packers at Dolphins (51 degrees and cloudy)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 25th, +1 vs. consensus (26th)
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have allowed 12.8 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, third most in football.
Cameron Brate, Bucs at Cardinals (Dome)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 26th, +4 vs. consensus (30th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Cameron Brate for 4.0 targets this week, tied for 19th at his position (he has averaged 4.2 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Brate has not caught a touchdown but has 1.72 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 1.72-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have allowed 14.8 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, the most in football.
Dawson Knox, Bills at Bears (12 degrees with high forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 13th, -2 vs. consensus (11th)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures and high forecasted winds will likely skew the Bills’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Bears have allowed 6.3 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, third fewest in football.
Gerald Everett, Chargers at Colts (Dome)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 14th, -2 vs. consensus (12th)
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, tied for sixth most in football.
+ Efficiency: Gerald Everett has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 4.03 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 2.03-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Cole Kmet, Bears vs. Bills (12 degrees with high forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 16th, -1 vs. consensus (15th)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures and high forecasted winds will likely skew the Bears’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Cole Kmet has caught 5 touchdowns but has just 2.16 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth biggest 2.84-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Bills have allowed 6.4 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, fourth fewest in football.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, Titans vs. Texans (21 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 17th, -1 vs. consensus (16th)
– Volume: I am projecting Chigoziem Okonkwo for 3.7 targets this week, 24th at his position (he has averaged 5.3 targets since Week 12 but will likely see fewer targets with QB Malik Willis, who has averaged just 13.0 pass attempts in two starts this season).
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Texans’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Juwan Johnson, Saints at Browns (11 degrees with high forecasted winds and a 49% chance of light snow)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 18th, -1 vs. consensus (17th)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures, high forecasted winds, and a 49% chance of light snow will likely skew the Saints’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Juwan Johnson has caught 7 touchdowns but has just 3.33 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 3.67-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Noah Fant, Seahawks at Chiefs (16 degrees and sunny)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 19th, -1 vs. consensus (18th)
– Volume: Extremely cold temperatures will likely skew the Seahawks’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.42 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Tyler Higbee, Rams vs. Broncos (Dome)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 20th, -1 vs. consensus (19th)
– Opponent: The Broncos have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.45 per game in 2022, the most in football.
Hunter Henry, Patriots vs. Bengals (23 degrees with high forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 23rd, -3 vs. consensus (20th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and high forecasted winds will likely skew the Patriots’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: The Bengals have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.18 per game in 2022, tied for sixth most in football.
Tyler Conklin, Jets vs. Jaguars (46 degrees with high forecasted winds and an 89% chance of rain)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 24th, -3 vs. consensus (21st)
– Volume: High forecasted winds and an 89% chance of rain will likely skew the Jets’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Jaguars have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Jordan Akins, Texans at Titans (21 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 27th, -5 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Texans’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Titans have allowed 11.9 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, sixth most in football.
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.21 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
Austin Hooper, Titans vs. Texans (21 degrees with moderate forecasted winds)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 28th, -3 vs. consensus (25th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures and moderate forecasted winds will likely skew the Texans’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Logan Thomas, Commanders at 49ers (58 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 16 Positional Ranking: 29th, -2 vs. consensus (27th)
– Opponent: The 49ers have allowed 7.2 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, tied for sixth fewest in football.
– Opponent: The 49ers have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.29 per game in 2022, third most in football.
+ Efficiency: Logan Thomas has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.50 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth biggest 1.50-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
