Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
So much fantasy football analysis focuses on the ceiling. “Can Justin Jefferson go for 2,000 receiving yards,” “Can Lamar Jackson repeat his MVP-level season,” that sort of thing. And ceiling is of course crucial to a fantasy team reaching its full potential.
Sometimes we have to be wary of floors, though.
You don’t necessarily draft for floor, but you have to be aware of the potential pitfalls as you go through your draft. So today, I’m looking at the Buyer Beware players of fantasy football in 2023, the players in the top 100 of ADP who could see the bottom fall out and leave you hanging.
(One note: Everyone can get hurt. Maybe one guy has more injury risk than another guy, but they’re playing a hard game and can get hurt. Just assume everyone has “zero points because he got hurt two minutes into Week 1” floor, and let’s look at this assuming health-or-close, unless there’s reason to believe in more risk than just “well, he plays a hard position.”)
The ‘Buyer Beware’ Players of Fantasy Football 2023
Copper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Before you accuse me of talking out of both sides of my mouth by listing Cooper Kupp here after also repeatedly saying he’s my first overall pick in 2023, I’m fine with both of those things existing simultaneously. It is true that you can lose your draft in the first round, but if Kupp can be anything like he was in 2021, he’ll smash as my 1.01, and I’m fine with that potential tradeoff.
Anyway, it’s still true Kupp has a lot of ways to fail, even if he has massive ways to succeed. Even discounting his own injury concerns (he missed the last half of last year with injury and is already hurt in camp), we have to account for the mystery of whether his quarterback can even throw like an NFL quarterback, and then the fact that he’s on what could be one of the worst teams in the league with no incentive to push him if they’re out of the race. Kupp’s ceiling is absurdly high. But his floor is surprisingly low.
Tony Pollard, RB, Dallas Cowboys
I addressed this in our “What If?” piece a few days ago, but the general consensus that Tony Pollard is ready for a bell cow role seems more confident than it probably should be. Pollard’s size was a concern when he took over for Ezekiel Elliott for injury last year, and now after two games of success, we’re all in? I love Pollard like everyone, but he’s no sure thing, even with a light depth chart behind him, and that’s even before considering he’s on a relatively fast turnaround from a dramatic injury in last year’s playoffs.
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m not sold on Jaylen Warren stealing away anything more than mop-up or occasional change-of-pace work from Najee Harris … yet. But if Harris continues to come out and offer “he always plays” as his greatest virtue (a deserved virtue, to be fair — he and Devin Singletary are the only relevant backs to play all 34 games the last two years), if Warren’s 4.7 yards per carry compared to Harris’ 3.8 in 2022 continues, the Steelers might get their hands forced by midseason.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
As a surefire starting tight end, there’s nothing wrong with Mark Andrews. As the consensus TE2, there might be. His greatest selling point in recent years has been that Marquise Brown before 2022, and then “nobody” in 2022, was his only real target competition, and now all of a sudden there is a lot of potential competition in Baltimore. Odell Beckham, Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers is a ridiculously high-variance receiver room, but there’s a ceiling scenario where they are all good options, and if that becomes the reality, the Andrews won’t see anything like the target load he’s had in recent years.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions
There are dueling narratives this draft season that (a) the Lions wouldn’t have spent big on Jahmyr Gibbs in the draft if they didn’t plan to use him heavily and (b) the Lions wouldn’t have spent big on David Montgomery in free agency if they didn’t play on him being this year’s Jamaal Williams-plus. It would be really hard for those two narratives to coexist and the team to still pass as much as we think it will. If the “b” scenario plays out, then the Lions’ rush attack could look a lot like it did with Williams/D’Andre Swift last year, and that would have Gibbs in the Swift role and coming up short of his RB13 ADP.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Calvin Ridley’s skills are off the charts. It will also have been close to two years since he last played when he steps on the field in Week 1, and he’s a soon-to-be-29-year-old with exactly one career season over 900 yards. Sky-high ceiling, but the floor could get ugly if things don’t break right.
Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns
Deshaun Watson was legitimately bad last year, and the vibes coming out of Browns camp heading into 2023 aren’t much better. The skill is off the charts, but if he doesn’t resemble his Houston self in Cleveland in 2023, Amari Cooper is going way too early as WR18.
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
Yes, he was QB6 last year on the back of 1,100 rushing yards, and he still has his legs. But we’ll have to see at least some better passing from Justin Fields to really believe in him as a long-term fantasy-viable option, and until we see it, there’s always a chance the defenses figure out a way to sell out and stop him, knowing he won’t/can’t pass to beat them.
Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams
I’ve beaten the “avoid Cam Akers” drum far too much this offseason, but…
- Team with a (potentially historically) bad defense
- Back who doesn’t catch passes
- Back who isn’t very explosive
- One of the worst offensive lines in the league
The argument in favor of drafting Akers is basically “he had a good four games to end 2022,” and I’m sorry, it’s not enough. The floor is invisibly low.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara’s ADP has started to creep back up after his suspension was less than it could have been, and that’s good, but we have to remember that even outside the suspension, this is a 28-year-old back who is on the small side, who only scored in two of 15 games last year, who went from 5.0 yards per carry in his first four seasons to 3.9 the last two years, and whose team signed a name running back and drafted an upside pick this year. The end is in sight for Kamara.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Rookie Day 3 picks popping in fantasy isn’t actually that rare. It’s rare enough to be notable, but it’s not remotely unheard of. You know what is also not unheard of? Those backs fading back into obscurity shortly after their pop. Isiah Pacheco was somewhat forced into action for the Chiefs last year after Clyde Edwards-Helaire struggled and then got hurt, and he was legitimately good, but he’s also a one-dimensional back who didn’t even average one target a game last year. What if the Deneric Prince buzz proves real? Or if CEH is healthy and can be anything? There are a lot of ways Pacheco could fade back in 2023.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Cleveland Browns
I mentioned this in the Amari Cooper section above, but obviously it’s even more true for the quarterback himself. There is no more unknown quarterback right now than Deshaun Watson, and well within his range of outcomes is him looking just like he looked at the end of last year. Imagine drafting maybe the worst quarterback in the game as a top-10 fantasy option.
