Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every fantasy football draft season, some storylines coalesce and some narratives take hold. There’s a reason for that — fantasy analysts, fans and players alike come to an agreement on a storyline because it makes sense, because the data point to a conclusion.
But nothing is guaranteed.
Just because everything is pointing toward a certain conclusion doesn’t mean it will come to pass. Today, I ask the question: What if we’re wrong? What if the consensus opinion is incorrect? Basically, it’s a whole “devil’s advocate” approach. If something we all think is wrong, then how we are drafting is incorrect. So how would the contrarian approach go?
What If Anthony Richardson Just Plain Isn’t Ready?
The Colts took Anthony Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, and it’s impossible to not be intrigued by his skill set. You could argue he’s the most athletic quarterback to ever enter the league — in fact, it might be hard to argue against that. And when the final domino fell this week, when the Colts confirmed that Richardson will start Week 1, the fantasy community by and large went all in. After all, Richardson’s legs give him a massive floor and ceiling, and if he can stay healthy and just put together a little passing ability, well, we all saw what Josh Allen has become.
But Richardson has so much potential downside. Rookie quarterbacks face a tough road, especially ones with only a 53.8% completion percentage in their final year in college, with about the same number of starts in his entire college career as he’ll get as a rookie in the NFL. There’s a path for Richardson to be a top-six QB as a rookie, but there’s also a path to him being either so bad he can’t be used in fantasy, or so bad the Colts have to sit him. If that happens, (a) you’re drafting him too high, (b) you’re drafting Michael Pittman too high — and Pittman isn’t even going very high, and (c) Gardner Minshew, who has had flashes in his four-year career, could be a surprise contributor as the season goes on.
What If Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery Isn’t D’Andre Swift/Jamaal Williams 2.0?
The narrative is very clear: The Lions moved on from a speedy youngster and a veteran goal-line presence this offseason and replaced them with a speedier youngster-er and a veteran-er goal-line presence-er. (The grammar there was terrible, but you get the point.) If Jahmyr Gibbs is the new D’Andre Swift, he’s an electric presence in the offense who will have huge splash plays but won’t get enough high-value or overall touches for our liking and leave us frustrated. If David Montgomery is the new Jamaal Williams, he’s a good running mate to Gibbs who could have elite value at the goal line, punching in short touchdowns behind a great offensive line.
It’s worth remembering, though, that the Lions had Swift, Williams and an excellent line in 2021, and the season was nothing like that. Swift averaged 11.6 carries per game, not 7.1. Williams had 3 touchdowns, not 17. There’s no guarantee 2022 was a blip, but there’s no guarantee it wasn’t one, either. The Bears willingly let Montgomery walk, while the Lions gave up big resources and moved up to take Gibbs 12th overall in the draft. There’s a path to us being wrong about Montgomery’s upside, and that might make Gibbs a mid-range RB1 in 2023.
What If Tony Pollard Isn’t Ready for a Bell Cow Role?
Tony Pollard has been the darling of the fantasy community for a few years now, working behind Ezekiel Elliott in the Dallas offense. He exploded in 2022, finishing as the RB8 in PPR, and Elliott is gone now. The Cowboys didn’t make any grand investments in the backfield this offseason, signing Ronald Jones and drafting Deuce Vaughn. So Pollard is the apple of everyone’s eye.
But don’t forget, this is a guy many thought was too small for monster workloads, and he’s also coming off a pretty dramatic leg injury in the playoffs. If he’s not a good fit for 250-300 touches in a season, maybe Vaughn, Jones, Malik Davis or Rico Dowdle makes up the difference. Or maybe the receiving corps of CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup can realize its potential as one of the top trios in the league.
What If Calvin Ridley Is Too Rusty?
Calvin Ridley’s skillset is admittedly tantalizing. The last time he played a full season, he had 1,374 yards and 9 touchdowns and was the WR5. He’s not even 29 until December, and he’s had a full offseason to get up to speed in this Jaguars offense after coming over in a deadline trade last year. It’s exciting!
That said, we just saw the downside of investing heavily in a player right after he missed the better part of two years. Deshaun Watson missed all of 2021 and only played the final six games of 2022, and there weren’t many worse quarterbacks than him last year. Ridley missed all of 2022 and only played five of the first six games of 2021, so the absence is basically the same, even if the specific timing isn’t. The positions are obviously different, but what if the rust is the same? The NFL’s hard, and it’s harder still if you take two prime years off. Maybe Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and/or Evan Engram are better-suited to lead the way in this offense, and if so, one or more of them is a fantasy bargain on draft day.
What If Dalton Kincaid Isn’t Actually a Wide Receiver Surrogate?
The Bills probably needed receiver help this offseason, but their additions were actually modest: free agents Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty and rookie fifth-rounder Justin Shorter. Instead, their big splash was actually a tight end, first-rounder Dalton Kincaid, who most everyone is already looking at as a big-bodied receiver who just happens to have a “TE” next to his name.
But even if he’s only sort of a tight end, that “sort of” matters a whole bunch, and that’s a position that traditionally has a steep learning curve. Maybe Kincaid isn’t ready. If that’s the case, maybe Gabe Davis really is the post-hype sleeper we want, a year after he was everybody’s up-and-coming darling on draft day. And on top of that, maybe Dawson Knox, who is third among tight ends with 15 touchdowns the last two years, could find his way to low-end TE1 value yet again.
