Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With the start of the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year.I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop Tool to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the San Fransisco 49ers. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker.You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: San Francisco 49ers
2022 Results
Record: 13-4, 1st in the NFC West
Season End: Lost NFC Conference Championship game to Philadelphia, 31-7
San Francisco 49ers Offseason Summary
Draft
3.87: Ji’Ayir Brown, S, Penn State
3.99: Jake Moody, K, Michigan
3.101: Cameron Latu, TE, Alabama
5.155: Darrell Luter, CB, South Alabama
5.173: Robert Beal, DE, Georgia
6.216: Dee Winters, LB, TCU
7.247: Brayden Willis, TE, Oklahoma
7.253: Ronnie Bell, WR, Michigan
7.255: Jalen Graham, LB, Purdue
Ji’Ayir Brown, S (3.87)
The 49ers signed 32-year-old Tashaun Gipson after Jimmie Ward departed for the Texans in free agency. Brown is a versatile defensive back that is a foundation piece for the future.
Jake Moody, K (3.99)
Selecting a kicker will always raise eyebrows, especially when this pick is the highest a kicker has been drafted since 2016. Regardless, Jake Moody was the best kicker in the draft, with three makes from 50-plus yards.
Cameron Latu, TE (3.101)
San Francisco is hoping the Alabama product can lighten the load on All-Pro George Kittle. He will battle Ross Dwelley and Charlie Woerner on the depth chart.
Brayden Willis, TE (7.247)
The second tight end behind Latu, he will need to supplant Dwelley or Woerner to make the roster.
Additions
Free agent signings: QB Brandon Allen, QB Sam Darnold, WR Chris Conley, C/OG Jon Feliciano, OT Matt Pryor, EDGE Clelin Ferrell, DT Javon Hargrave: CB Isaiah Oliver, DB Myles Hartsfield
Trades: K Zane Gonzalez
Javon Hargrave, DT
San Francisco bolstered an already elite defense by adding former Philadelphia defensive tackle Javon Hargrave. He tallied 57 total pressures last season in Philadelphia, an incredibly high number for an interior lineman. Hargrave was a Pro Bowl selection in 2021.
Sam Darnold, QB
The 49ers quarterback situation was very much in flux for most of the offseason. Adding veteran Sam Darnold was an insurance policy against Brock Purdy’s UCL team in last year’s NFC Championship game. While Purdy’s injury appears to be making significant progress, Darnold adds security at the most important position.
Clelin Ferrell, Edge
The former fourth-overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft has struggled to find consistency during his pro career. He has only accumulated 10 sacks in four season, but provides depth with a pedigree of high draft capital.
Departures
QB Jimmy Garoppolo , QB Josh Johnson, TE Tyler Kroft, OT Mike McGlinchey, OG Daniel Brunskill, Edge Samson Ebukam, EDGE Jordan Willis, EDGE Charles Omenihu, DL Maurice Hurst, DL Hassan Ridgeway, LB Azeez Al-Shaair (Titans), CB Emmanuel Moseley, CB Jason Verrett, S Jimmie Ward, K Robbie Gould
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB
The veteran signal-caller was very popular in the 49ers locker room after a 39-18 record in his 57 starts. The development of Purdy, upside of former first-round pick Trey Lance, and addition of veteran Darnold made Garoppolo expendable.
Mike McGlinchey, OT
The former No. 9 overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft, McGlinchey produced his best season in 2022. He was a strong run-blocker, and finally stayed healthy after missing 13 games over his first four seasons. McGlinchey is the only offensive line starter not returning, choosing to sign with the Broncos.
Jimmie Ward, S
Ward was the longest-tenured 49ers player, drafted in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft. He followed former 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans to Houston, bringing versatility and leadership.
Schedule
Week 1 – @ Pittsburgh Steelers (49ers-2.5)
Week 2 – @ Los Angeles Rams
Week 3 – New York Giants
Week 4 – Arizona Cardinals
Week 5 – Dallas Cowboys
Week 6 – @ Cleveland Browns
Week 7– @Minnesota Vikings
Week 8– Cincinnati Bengals
Week 9– BYE
Week 10 – @Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 11 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 12 –@Seattle Seahawks
Week 13 – @Philadelphia Eagles
Week 14 – Seattle Seahawks
Week 15 – @Arizona Cardinals
Week 16 – Baltimore Ravens
Week 17 – @ Washington Commanders
Week 18 – Los Angeles Rams
2023 Future Odds
DraftKings: Wins Over/Under: 10.5 (-120, +100)
DraftKings: NFC West (-160)
The 49ers season ended in heartbreaking fashion, getting eliminated in the NFC Conference Championship game for a second straight season. The game was never really close once Brock Purdy suffered a UCL injury, ending in a 31-7 loss to the Eagles. Despite losing starting quarterback Trey Lance in Week 2 last season, the 49ers finished with a 13-4 record, tied for second in the NFC. They also won the NFC West for the second time in the last four seasons, holding a four-game lead over the second-place Seahawks. I like San Franscisco’s odds of repeating as the NFC West champions and side with the over 10.5 wins. After moving away from Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason, seemingly done with the former No. 3 overall pick, Lance, the team is moving in the right direction handing the reins to Purdy. Purdy is well ahead of his recovery timeline already participating in training camp, trending toward being active in Week 1.
Best Bets
FanDuel/BetMGM: To Earn NFC No. 1 Seed (+400)
DraftKings/FanDuel/BetMGM/Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: To Win the NFC (+400)
The 49ers have been the cream of the crop in the NFC, making the Conference Championship game in three of the last four seasons, as well as a Super Bowl appearance. Aside from the Eagles, there aren’t many teams with the same fire power as San Fransico, who just won 13 games with a third string quarterback starting in five regular season games, and three times in the playoffs. Before tearing his UCL, the 49ers went a perfect 7-0 in games started by Brock Purdy, winning 10 straight games since their last regular season loss to defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs. With a full offseason of Purdy working with the first team offense as the day one starter, I like San Fransico to come out with the best record in the NFC and win the conference, both at +400 odds.
Unibet/Second-Chance Bet: Fewest Points Allowed (+500)
The 49ers’ defense was a force to be reckoned with last season, allowing fewest points (16.3) and yards (300.6) per game among all teams in 2022. Led by Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa, San Fransico also finished as the second-best defense against the run, allowing just 77.7 rushing yards per game, trailing only the Titans. Despite losing defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans the 49ers have found a more-than-competent replacement in former Panthers head coach Steve Wilks. The team has found success with multiple different coordinators, finishing top five inyards allowed with a top-10 scoring defense in back-to-back seasons. +500 odds to allow the fewest points in 2023 feels too long for what looks to be the No.1 defense in the NFL.
FanDuel: Christian McCaffrey Over 850.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
After failing to play more than seven games in three consecutive seasons, Christian McCaffrey finally put together a healthy season in 2022, logging his third 1,000-yard rushing season. He played six games with the Panthers and 11 with the 49ers, totaling 244 carries for 1,139 rushing yards, averaging 4.97 yards per attempt. Since entering the league, McCaffrey has cleared 850 rushing yards by a wide margin, rushing for over a thousand yards in three out of four seasons with 8-plus games played. The over on McCaffrey’s rushing prop is simply a bet on health. In games started by Brock Purdy, McCaffrey averaged 84.63 rushing yards per game, on pace for 1,438.71 rushing yards over a 17-game season.
