College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
With Week 0 of the 2023 college football season only a couple of weeks away, it’s a great time to look at the latest odds for the Mountain West Conference.
2023 Mountain West Conference Odds
Here are the updated odds for which team will win the Mountain West Championship Game this upcoming season, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Boise State (+180)
- Fresno State (+380)
- Air Force (+400)
- San Diego State (+700)
- Wyoming (+1200)
- San Jose State (+1400)
- UNLV (+1800)
- Colorado State (+2000)
- Utah State (+3500)
- Nevada (+5500)
- New Mexico (+15000)
- Hawaii (+15000)
Boise State looking to win the MWC title game for the first time since 2019
The Broncos are the favorite to win the Mountain West championship game (+180) after losing 28-16 to Fresno State in last season’s title game. The Bulldogs will be a thorn in Boise State’s side this season as they have the second-best odds to win the MWC championship.
Boise State is coming off a 10-win season in Andy Avalos’ second year as the head coach. The Broncos were also a perfect 8-0 in conference play in 2022. It was the second time since Boise State joined the MWC in 2011 that they were undefeated. Boise State has a solid offense that scored 29.5 points per game last season but could be better this season. The Broncos will be led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Taylen Green, who played well last season as he stepped in for Hank Bachmeier, who is now at Louisiana Tech.
The 6–foot-6 dual-threat quarterback completed 61.3% of his passes for 2,042 yards, 14 touchdowns and six interceptions. Green was also a factor in the running game, amassing 588 yards and 10 touchdowns. Along with Green, the Broncos also leaned on their dynamic RB duo of George Holani and Ashton Jeanty. Last year, Boise State produced 196.5 rushing yards per game, good for second in the conference behind Air Force’s triple-option offense (326.7 yards per game). Holani led the Broncos with 1,157 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on 221 carries. The 5-foot-11 running back also showed he could be a playmaker in Boise State’s passing game, producing 24 receptions for 151 yards and three touchdowns. Jeanty had 821 yards and seven touchdowns on 156 carries. If Boise State wants to return to the MWC title game for the second-straight season, they will need their running game to play at a high level.
Finally, in the receiving department, Green will be leaning on Billy Bowens and Stefan Cobbs this season as Latrell Caples is out for the season with a leg injury. Caples led the Broncos with 51 receptions for 549 yards and four touchdowns. Bowens had a career-high 32 receptions for 462 yards and four touchdowns, while Cobbs produced 29 catches for 396 yards and two touchdowns. Bowens and Cobbs will have numerous opportunities to make plays this season as the Broncos make up for the loss of Caples.
With the Broncos missing their top wide receiver and Green entering the season as the full-time starter, it could be pressure on the defense to perform how they did in 2022. Last season, Boise State allowed 19.5 points per game (15th best in the country) and was second in the MWC in passing yards per game allowed (167.7). The Broncos lost JL Skinner and Scott Matlock to the NFL, but they brought in some transfers and have vets from last year’s squad that should keep them at the top of the Mountain West standings. Nevertheless, Boise State has a rough start to the 2023 season, as they will play Washington and UCF in back-to-back weeks and open up conference play Sept. 22 against San Diego State.
Watch out for San Diego State, San Jose State in the MWC’s West Division
While everybody is focusing on the Bulldogs in the West Division this season, bettors need to keep an eye on San Diego State and San Jose State, who both finished with seven wins last season. The Aztecs surprisingly have the fourth-best odds to win the Mountain West title game this season despite finishing in third place in the West Division. San Diego State will be looking to see if former defensive back turned QB Jalen Mayden can build off his 2022 season.
Mayden made his first start Oct. 8 against Hawaii, completing 24-of-36 passes for 322 yards and a touchdown as he led San Diego State to a two-point win. In eight games, the 6-foot-3 signal-caller completed 59.5 percent of his passes for 2,030 yards, 12 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. For the Aztecs to make a push for the title game, Mayden will need to take that next step as a passer, but the running game has to improve as well. Last season, San Diego St. was ranked fifth in the conference in rushing (143.4 yards per game), but their leading rusher only had 390 yards (Jordan Byrd). Kenan Christon and Cam Davis will try to remedy the Aztecs’ running game woes.
As for the Aztecs’ defense, they were one of the best in the country, allowing 20.9 points per game (19th in the NCAA). San Diego St. was also great at stopping the run, as they only gave up 113.8 rushing yards per game (second-best in the MWC). Head coach Brady Hoke has a lot of things to build off of from 2022 heading into this season. However, for the Aztecs to get to the MWC title game, they must play better against Boise State, Fresno State and Air Force. Last year, the Aztecs were 0-3 vs. those squads and outscored by 12 points per game.
Meanwhile, San Jose State is on the outside looking in for the Mountain West crown, as they are sleepers at 12-1 odds. The Spartans will have veteran quarterback Chevan Cordeiro back under center for the second-straight year. Cordeiro played well in his first year at San Jose State after spending four years at the University of Hawaii. The 6-foot-1 quarterback completed 60.7 percent of his passes for 3,251 yards, 23 touchdowns and six interceptions. He also added 265 rushing yards and nine TDs on the ground.
If Cordeiro can produce a similar statline this season, the Spartans might shock some teams in the Mountain West. However, he won’t be able to do it alone, as the defense must do its job. The Spartans only allowed 22 points per game (30th in the country), forcing opponents into 1.7 turnovers per game (second in the Mountain West).
San Jose State does not have an easy schedule as they play USC, Oregon State, and Toledo in non-conference play. Then in Mountain West play, the Spartans have to play Air Force, Boise State and Fresno State.
Best Bets for the Mountain West
For bettors looking for a best bet to place before the regular season kicks off, they should take Air Force UNDER 8.5 wins (+105, BetMGM). The Falcons went 10-3 last season, but we don’t see them hitting the 10-win mark again in 2023.
Heading into this season, Air Force will not have the QB Haaziq Daniels and RB Brad Roberts in the backfield. Daniels and Roberts made the triple option unstoppable as Air Force ran for 326.7 rushing yards per game (first in the country). Now that’s not to say the triple option won’t be successful this season because it will be under head coach Troy Calhoun. However, bettors shouldn’t expect Ben Brittain and Jensen Jones to be Daniels. But they should expect the Falcons to be on the top rushing teams in the country and have a stout defense that allowed 13.4 points per game last season (third in the country), which was better than Georgia and Michigan.
