Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Thursday 8/3)

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Today, MLBdream provides his picks.

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs

Reds +136 @ Cubs -162 — Total 10.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

We’re 1-1 on the week after the Twins didn’t come through for us Wednesday, but we can finish this week’s writeups in the green with a win Thursday. Let’s head back to Wrigley Field for the W. I didn’t find an edge in the K prop market, but I did find a team total I like. Full disclosure, I’ve had a much tougher time this season with totals, but I can’t pass on this spot.

Reds righty Luke Weaver has been one of my favorite fades this 2023 season. I’m usually on the opposing team’s team total when he’s on the bump, and it’s no different here. Weaver’s 6.80 ERA and 1.60 WHIP rank dead last in MLB (min. 80 innings). His advanced stats aren’t much better, as his 6.12 FIP ranks second worst. Check out all the blue below on his Baseball Savant page – his expected ERA, batting average and slugging rank in the sixth percentile or worse. Weaver doesn’t generate swings and misses and he doesn’t entice batters to chase. It’s impressive that the Reds have kept him in the rotation, as he makes his 19th start today. Cincinnati has given up 41 runs in the first three games of this divisional series. The Reds bullpen has been abysmal over the last 15 days – posting a 6.00 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP. For the season, the Reds have given up the fifth-most runs per game at 5.07.

The Cubbies offense has been absolutely raking lately, and it’s not just one guy – their entire lineup is seeing the ball well. Over the last 14 days, nobody has scored more than the Cubs’ 97 runs and it isn’t even close — the Braves have scored the second-most runs at 71. The Cubs as a team are hitting .305, with a .373 OBP and .558 slugging. Overall, the Cubs average 5.55 runs per game at Wrigley, fourth-most in MLB.

Weaver shouldn’t make it through five innings and we should have three runs before David Bell makes a call to the bullpen. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.