NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
With the start of the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop Tool to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Indianapolis Colts. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Indianapolis Colts
2022 Results
Record: 4-12-1, 3rd in the AFC South
Season End: Missed the playoffs
Indianapolis Colts Offseason Summary
Draft
1.4: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
2.44: Julius Brents, CB, Kansas St.
3.79: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina
4.106: Blake Freeland, T, BYU
4.110: Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT, Northwestern
5.138: Darius Rush, CB, South Carolina
5.158: Daniel Scott, S, California
5.162: Will Mallory, TE, Miami (FL)
5.176: Evan Hull, RB, Northwestern
6.211: Titus Leo, EDGE, Wagner
7.221: Jaylon Jones, CB, Texas A&M
7.236: Jake Witt, T, Northern Michigan
Anthony Richardson, QB (1.4)
Richardson was the most polarizing quarterback prospect in his class. His 4.43-second 40 time, 40.5-inch vertical jump, and 10-foot-9-inch broad jump make a compelling case that he’s the most athletic prospect in the history of the position. But Richardson also completed an uninspiring 53.8% of his 2022 passes at Florida and has just one year of college starting experience. He’s an undoubted high ceiling/low floor draft pick. But Richardson was also a steal as the No. 4 draft pick since the top two picks, Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, have their own major concerns in their respective small stature and offensive scheme that has failed to produce standout pro passers in a handful of recent top quarterback picks.
Julius Brents, CB (2.44)
Stephon Gilmore will play for his fourth team in four seasons in 2023, and that latter-career journeyman status suggests the former Defensive Player of the Year has faded dramatically from that award standard. But that isn’t the case. Gilmore rebounded from the quad injury that spurred his initial trade from the Patriots to allow decent 6.4 and 6.5 yards per target the last two seasons. Without Gilmore — and possibly soon without Isaiah Rodgers — the Colts had a real hole at cornerback. And they hope that the second-round rookie Brents can fill it. The Kansas State product lacks elite top-end speed with a 4.53 speed. But he has ideal size at 6-foot-3 and 198 pounds and seems like a strong fit for a Gus Bradley defense that shies from blitzes and plays a lot of zone coverage.
Josh Downs, WR (3.79)
At just 5-foot-9 and 171 pounds, Downs looks like a slot-only receiver and was unlikely to ever join his bigger contemporaries Quentin Johnston and Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round. But the quick North Carolina product had some high-profile fans — most notably Colts legend Reggie Wayne, who called Downs the best receiver at the combine — and was a shock to slip to the third round. That fall may not help Downs’ fantasy prospects as it pairs him with a dual-threat franchise quarterback in Anthony Richardson with poor short accuracy. But it does round out the Colts receiver room skills incredibly well. Incumbent outside receivers Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce are both tall at 6-foot-4 and 6-foot-3.
Additions
Free agent signings: EDGE Samson Ebukam, K Matt Gay, QB Gardner Minshew, DT Taven Bryan, WR Isaiah McKenzie, WR Breshad Perriman, TE Pharaoh Brown, LB Genard Avery, G Dakoda Shepley
Samson Ebukam, EDGE
Other teams may have questioned how many of his 30-plus pass pressures in his best Rams seasons were a direct result of Aaron Donald double-teams. But Ebukam silenced those doubters with another pair of 30-pressure seasons in 2021 and 2022 in San Francisco and earned a $24 million contract to lead the Colts’ pass rush opposite former first-round pick Kwity Paye.
Gardner Minshew, QB
The former sixth-round surprise Jaguars starter and cult hero Minshew has spent the last two seasons backing up Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia. And his $3.5 million Colts contract suggests he will back up rookie Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis. But Richardson may also need some mechanical tweaks with his throwing motion. So Minshew may have a chance to start a month or two for his new team and build on his shocking excellent 44-15 career touchdown-interception ratio.
Isaiah McKenzie, WR
McKenzie may have been less thrilled for the Josh Downs draft pick than the Colts front office. But while the former Bills wideout played the bulk of his snaps for his former team from the slot, he brings a different skill set to the position than the twitchier rookie and may have more outside versatility with his 4.42-second speed than he had a chance to show in Buffalo.
Departures
QB Matt Ryan, LB Bobby Okereke, EDGE Yannick Ngakoue, CB Stephon Gilmore, QB Nick Foles, EDGE Ben Banogu, WR Parris Campbell, CB Brandon Facyson, S Rodney McLeod, S Armani Watts, K Chase McLaughlin, T Matt Pryor, T Dennis Kelly, P Matt Haack, WR Kristian Wilkerson, DT Chris Williams, DT Kameron Cline, TE Nikola Kalinic, DT Byron Cowart, RB D’Vonte Price
Matt Ryan, QB
The 6-foot-4 former No. 3 draft pick could make every throw in his heyday. It’s little wonder that 6-foot-4 former quarterback and former Colts head coach Frank Reich picked Ryan to replace a 6-foot-5 Carson Wentz. But while contemporary Tom Brady found a way to play into his mid-40s, Ryan suffered a more traditional, late-30s decline. As he lost arm strength and a willingness to take hits, Ryan slipped from the 8.0-plus-yard average depth of throw from his peak to 7.1- and 6.0-yard aDOTs the last two seasons. And while he may not have officially retired, Ryan signed on to call CBS games this season.
Bobby Okereke, LB
Okereke was a sure-tackler in his four-year Colts career and earned a $40 million Giants contract because of it. One assumes the Colts let the veteran walk because they already had a star linebacker in Shaquille Leonard — formerly Darius Leonard — under contract. And the team looks poised to pair Leonard with less heralded and less expensive linebackers in former Day 3 draft picks Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed in 2023. It’s a reasonable plan, but it will require better injury fortune after Leonard missed the bulk of last season with a back injury and had two surgeries on his back in the offseason.
Stephon Gilmore, CB
Cornerbacks seem to enjoy shorter career peaks than their wide receiver foils. And the former Defensive Player of the Year Gilmore’s recent journeyman status implies a sudden and steep fall from his All-Pro standard. But the veteran quarterback recovered from the quad injury that precipitated his original trade from the Patriots and settled into a much more gradual decline into his early 30s than many realize. Gilmore’s 6.5 yards per target allowed from 2022 was top 40 among regular cornerbacks. And the Colts will miss him unless their second-round rookie corner Julius Brents can hit the ground running.
Schedule
Week 1 – @ Jacksonville Jaguars (Colts +3.5)
Week 2 – @ Houston Texans
Week 3 – @Baltimore Ravens
Week 4 – Los Angeles Rams
Week 5 – Tennessee Titans
Week 6 – Cleveland Browns
Week 7 – Cleveland Browns
Week 8 – New Orleans Saints
Week 9 – @Carolina Panthers
Week 10 – New England Patriots
Week 11 – BYE
Week 12 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 13 – @Tennessee Titans
Week 14 – @ Cincinnati Bengals
Week 15 – Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 16 – @Atlanta Falcons
Week 17 – Las Vegas Raiders
Week 18 – Houston Texans
2023 Future Odds
Caesars/PointsBet: Wins Over/Under: 6.5 (-115/-105)
Caesars: To Win AFC South (+700)
A lot has changed in Indianapolis from a season ago, when they were favorites to win the AFC South entering 2022. There was a lot of optimism behind Matt Ryan, who was benched midseason, replaced by a combination of Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles, who each started a handful of games. Regardless of who was behind center, turnovers were an issue for the Colts as evidenced by their minus-13 turnover differential, worst in the league. The offense should improve significantly next season with the addition of head coach Shane Steichen, who spent the last two seasons as the play caller for Philadelphia and is fresh off a Super Bowl appearance. Under Steichen, the Eagle’s offense was a juggernaut, averaging the third most yards (389.1) and points (28.1) per game in the NFL. He’ll be tasked with the development of Anthony Richardson, who will be the first rookie quarterback to start for the franchise in Week 1 since Andrew Luck in 2016. The Colts hope to buck their nine-year winless streak in the season opener, but they are currently +3.5 dogs at home against the Jaguars. Fortunately, they’ll face much better matchups the rest of the season, with the third easiest strength of schedule. That has me leaning over 6.5 wins, but not enough confidence to bet them for the AFC South.
Best Bets
Caesars: Anthony Richardson Over 2550.5 Passing Yards (-115)
FanDuel/PointsBet: Anthony Richardson Offensive Rookie of the Year (+800)
Underdog Fantasy: Higher than 0.5 Rushing Yards
The Colts’ new face of the franchise, Anthony Richardson, is one of the most polarizing prospects to enter the NFL, selected at No. 4 overall despite playing only 13 games as a starter. As a passer, Richardson struggled with accuracy, completing just 53.8% of his passes last season. However, his shortcomings through the air were mitigated by his dual-threat rushing ability, logging over a hundred carries in 2022 (103), totaling 652 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns. At the combine, Richardson scored a perfect 10 out of 10 relative athleticism score, ranked first among 914 quarterbacks who have tested. Measuring in at 6 feet 4 inches, 244 pounds, Richardson made history, running the fourth fastest 40-yard dash at the position (4.43 seconds), setting a record in both the board jump (10 feet, 9 inches) and vertical jump (40.5 inches). Under Shane Steichen, who helped develop a similar style player in Jalen Hurts into an MVP candidate, Richardson has every opportunity to thrive in year one. I like his odds to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +800, betting on arguably the most athletic player to suit up the position. Already announced as the Week 1 starter, Richarson should have no trouble surpassing his 2550.5-yard passing prop, a number he cleared in just 12 games last season (2,549). During his inaugural press conference, Steichen stated “We’re going to throw to score points in this league and run to win.”Underdog also has a limited-time promo, virtually a free square, offering higher or lower 0.5 rushing yards for Richardson.
