2024 FTN NFL Power Rankings Through Week 15: Who Takes Over the Top Spot?
Daniel Kelley
(As we head toward training camp and the start of preseason, our own Daniel Kelley is asking — and attempting to answer — the most pressing questions around fantasy football for 2022. This is 100 Questions.)
Over the last five years, there are only three divisions in the NFL that are under .500 cumulatively, and one (the AFC East) is at 161-163. That leaves the NFC East, at .440 over those five years, and the AFC South, at .460. Between the Jaguars and (more recently) the Texans struggling in a big way, and the Colts and Titans being underwhelming frontrunners, the AFC South has been one of the league’s least impressive divisions lately. Can that improve in 2022?
Houston Texans
It’s easy to forget now that the Houston Texans won the division four of five years from 2015 to 2019 and were up 24-0 on the Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the 2019 playoffs before the Chiefs stormed back to win 51-31. Now, the Texans have gone 8-25 the last two seasons, are on their fourth head coach in that time, and are +3000 to win arguably the league’s worst division on DraftKings Sportsbook. Things have turned.
29. Should We Bother with This Backfield?
Back in March, I noticed something about the Houston backfield:
After futzing around with David Johnson, Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay early in the year, the Texans jettisoned Ingram and Lindsay and lost Johnson to injury late, and it became Rex Burkhead’s backfield, and not by a little — Burkhead has topped 35 snaps in a game 13 times in his nine-year career, and six of those came in the last seven weeks of 2021. If a little-used back like Burkhead could see heavy work, how much could a new back see?
Best Answer: The Texans could have brought in … I don’t know, Melvin Gordon this offseason, or drafted Breece Hall, and this would have been an intriguing role. Instead they signed Marlon Mack (who has 32 carries the last two seasons) and drafted Dameon Pierce (whose career rushing high in college was 574 yards) to go with the now-32-year-old Burkhead. And that’s a long couple sentences to say … yawn. Feel free to ignore the backfield altogether.
30. Is Nico Collins a Good Breakout Candidate?
The Texans grabbed Nico Collins in the third round of last year’s draft, and he was a popular deep sleeper last year. It didn’t turn into much — Collins missed three games and had only 446 yards and a single score in 2021. On the other hand, his work increased as the season went on. In Weeks 1-13, Collins averaged 2.0 receptions on 3.3 targets; in Weeks 14-18, those numbers climbed to 3.0 receptions on 6.0 targets. Neither number will have you showing up on end-of-season leaderboards, but it was good to see Collins’ work increase as he got experience.
Best Answer: The good news is that Collins is essentially free in drafts — he’s going in the 80s among wide receivers per ADP and is about the same in the FTN Fantasy consensus. There’s certainly appeal there, on an offense without much after Brandin Cooks and with a second-year leap possible. The problem? This Texans offense just isn’t likely to be very good. We’ve discussed the poor run game. Davis Mills at quarterback was a pleasant surprise in Year One, but he’s still a bottom-tier NFL starter. Worse still? Per Jeff Ratcliffe’s fantasy projections, the Texans are slated for 32.4 touchdowns in 2022. That’s not only worst in the league, it’s worst by more than 3 touchdowns below the next-worst Panthers and Giants (both at 35.5). When looking at flex pieces in Houston, the hunt really starts and ends with Cooks.
31. So No RBs, One WR — Does That Mean There’s TE Value?
Brevin Jordan missed the first half of his rookie year in 2021. He debuted in Week 8 with 3 catches on 4 targets for 41 yards and a score, the TE5 that week. Over the next six weeks, Jordan had three games of 20-plus yards and a score, but he also had three games of fewer than 10 yards. There were bright spots and there were down times.
Best Answer: Pep Hamilton has used the tight end heavily enough in previous stops (TEs had a 25% target share in Indianapolis in 2015) that sure, there’s a chance Jordan pops, especially at his draft price of “essentially free.” But — and don’t tell our Adam Pfeifer I said this — the chances any “breakout” matters in fantasy beyond super-deep TE-premium leagues is just scant. Even peak Jordan last year never topped 35 snaps in a game. Pharaoh Brown is still around and is a good blocker. And as mentioned above … this team won’t score touchdowns. You can find better lottery tickets.
Indianapolis Colts
The Andrew Luck retirement still reverberates around Indianapolis. The team is too good to land a top-flight quarterback in the draft, too cost-conscious to spend what it takes to get the biggest names in trade or move up for a pick, too bad elsewhere to tank. That’s why the Colts haven’t had the same Week 1 starting quarterback in consecutive years since Luck in 2015-2016, yet the team is 37-28 over the last four years with a playoff win in there. Now, it’s Matt Ryan’s turn.
32. Can Jonathan Taylor Be the First in 20 Years to be RB1 Twice?
Priest Holmes was the PPR RB1 in 2002 and 2003. No one knew it at the time, but he was a dying breed — since his 2003 season, not only has no running back gone back-to-back as RB1, but no running back has done it twice at all. Fresh off a season in which he was not only the RB1, but he was the RB1 by nearly 30 full points (29.3) and entering 2022 as the most popular 1.01 in drafts, Jonathan Taylor is the latest to give it a shot.
Best Answer: Taylor was the RB1 with 373.1 PPR points last year. That was a lot, but it was also the lowest total for the RB1 since Devonta Freeman’s 316.4 (wow) back in 2015. If you’re picking one single player to be the RB1 in 2022, Taylor almost has to be the pick, but if it’s “Taylor or the field?”, you definitely want the field. He’s great. If healthy, he’s almost certainly a top-five back. RB1? That’s a big ask. Twice.
33. Can Matt Ryan Produce Enough to Be Fantasy Relevant?
Matt Ryan landed with the Colts this offseason after 14 years in Atlanta. He’s been an absolute iron man in his career, with three missed games out of 225 (only one since 2009). He has an MVP, five Pro Bowls and a Super Bowl appearance. He has six top-10 fantasy finishes and has never been worse than 20th. Of course, the last Pro Bowl season, the MVP and the Super Bowl season were all in 2016, and he’s been largely average since then. Can a move to Indianapolis change that?
Best Answer: Well, first off, we can dismiss the idea of Ryan having any sort of contribution on the ground. He’s never had 150 rushing yards in a season, he has 12 rushing touchdowns in 14 years, he only runs if you force him at gunpoint. But unless he is done-done (to an extent even greater than what we saw with his QB20 finish last year), Ryan presents a high floor. He’ll stay on the field and get enough points to help, if not enough to be a winner. If you don’t go QB early, a common strategy is to pair an upside quarterback (like Justin Fields or Trevor Lawrence) with a safe option. In that situation, Ryan makes worlds of sense as the safe.
34. Is Michael Pittman a Fantasy Star Now?
Michael Pittman had one of the quietest breakouts last year, going from a quiet WR79 finish as a rookie in 2020 to WR17 on 1,082 yards and 6 touchdowns. He only had two top-10 weekly finishes, but he was top 20 eight times. That was with the struggles of Carson Wentz at quarterback. Now with Ryan, can he climb to a whole new level?
Best Answer: Julio Jones gets all the “haha, he’s allergic to the end zone” jokes, but there’s a real argument to be made that it’s a Matt Ryan problem, not a Julio one. In the last decade, the Falcons’ No. 1 receiver every year totaled more than 1,000 more yards than any other team’s No. 1, but in the bottom 10 in touchdowns. That was mostly Jones, yes, but it was also Calvin Ridley during some spurts, and it was also Kyle Pitts and his 1 touchdown a year ago. If that carries over to Indianapolis, Pittman’s current WR15 ADP won’t be bad, but it doesn’t offer much upside. Buyer beware.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars were kind of lucky in 2017 to go 10-6 and have a real shot at beating the Patriots in the AFC Championship to go to the Super Bowl. Everyone knew that. But even knowing that, not many would have predicted the team to go 15-50 over the next four years with four straight last-place finishes and consecutive first overall draft picks. It’s been a bad run in Jacksonville, is what I’m saying.
35. What Is Travis Etienne’s Year 2 (Actually Year 1) Ceiling?
Travis Etienne was the Jags’ second first-round pick in 2021, going off the board 25th overall and getting hyped as a first-year breakout. Instead, a previous Lisfranc injury cost him his entire rookie year. Now, he’s expected to debut in 2022. The starter the last two years, James Robinson, tore his Achilles in Week 16 of 2021, meaning there’s potentially a nearly vacant depth chart behind Etienne.
Best Answer: Color me surprised at how relatively affordable Etienne is right now. He’s going in the early 20s in ADP, while our Jeff Ratcliffe has him a little higher in his fantasy rankings, RB19. A Lisfranc injury is serious, but it’s not one that typically has long-term impacts on a player’s prospects … unlike an Achilles injury, which traditionally has cost players a year and running backs their explosiveness maybe forever. Sure, Cam Akers returned in a shockingly short time last year, but he wasn’t actually very good. Expecting anything out of Robinson in 2022 seems too optimistic. This is Etienne’s job, and he has a shot at a mid-to-high RB2 finish. Big upside pick here.
36. Will Christian Kirk Be Worth the Contract and the Hubbub?
Christian Kirk broke the NFL this offseason when he landed with the Jaguars on a four-year deal for $72 million. By all accounts, that led to … all the insanity that transpired this offseason. All for a 25-year-old second-rounder who has never had 1,000 yards or topped 6 touchdowns.
Best Answer: Well, there are two ways to answer this. The first is that, fairly obviously, Kirk won’t be worth the contract, because that was “elite receiver” money, and while he’s good, he’s not that. But the second is that, for fantasy, we don’t give a crap how much money he’s making. He’s on the team. Will he return value? And the answer to that is … yeah, probably. On a crowded depth chart, Kirk and Marvin Jones are probably the only two with guaranteed roles, and Kirk could easily turn his “mostly but not entirely slot” role into 800-plus yards and a handful of touchdowns. $18 million performance? Nah. Worth a mid/late draft pick? Sure.
37. Can Trevor Lawrence Break Out in Year Two?
Blame it on Urban Meyer, blame it on bad luck, blame it on being cursed by Jacksonville. Whatever the explanation, Trevor Lawrence was a bad fantasy quarterback as a rookie. He was QB22 in fantasy, and the only reason he was even that good was that he played all 17 games; with a minimum of five games played, he was QB32. That said, this was still the guy who we knew was the top pick in his draft class three, even four years ago. That doesn’t just go away.
Best Answer: After a frustrating rookie year, Justin Fields is QB17 in 2022 drafts. After a nearly absent rookie year, Trey Lance is QB14. While on the one hand it’s true that both have more rushing upside than Lawrence, it’s also true that Lawrence showed significantly more as a passer than either of them, and you can get him later than both. If I’m taking a 2021 rookie quarterback in drafts, it’s the one who was the first overall pick a year ago and whose team broke football with the contracts they chose to give out to protect and support him this offseason.
Tennessee Titans
You could probably guess that the team on the longest streak of seasons over .500 is the Kansas City Chiefs, who will shoot for their 10th straight such season in 2022. But the second-longest over-.500 streak might stump you (unless you were guessing right here), because it belongs to the Titans. After four straight 9-7 seasons in 2016-2019, the Titans went 11-5 and 12-5 the last two years. Can they make it seven in a row in 2022?
38. Does Derrick Henry Warrant a Top-Five Pick?
In September or October of last year, asking if Derrick Henry was a top-five pick was almost comical. The question was more like “Is he the 1.01, or is he the 1.01 by so much that we have to penalize the first picker for having such a good pick?” And then he got hurt and missed the rest of the regular season, returning for an underwhelming 20-62-1 performance in the Divisional Round. Now, he’s RB4 by ADP, RB6 in our consensus.
Best Answer: Henry was on his way to setting modern-era carries records before his injury last year. Sure, maybe that led to his injury. On the other hand, of the 11 players with even 100 receiving yards for the Titans last year, only three are still on the roster — Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (476), Geoff Swaim (210) and Henry (154). The non-Henry rushing leader (D’Onta Foreman, 566 yards) is gone as well. If the Titans aren’t going to lean on Henry … there isn’t going to be an offense. The work will be there. It’s just a matter of health, but then that’s true for anyone. I’m not taking Henry 1.01, but I’m comfortable with top five.
39. Treylon Burks or Robert Woods? Or Both? Or Neither?
A.J. Brown and whatever remains of Julio Jones are gone now. In their replace are the aforementioned Westbrook-Ikhine, plus first-rounder Treylon Burks and “30 years old and recovering from an ACL tear” Robert Woods. If all three reach their peak, that’s a mid-pack top three receivers, maybe better. But there’s also a very real scenario where this is one of the league’s worst receiver rooms, and drafters have to figure out exactly where to thread that needle.
Best Answer: The next bit of positive news coming out of Tennessee about Burks’ 2022 will be the first. He’s dealt with conditioning and asthma. That part can be chalked up as “Ja’Marr Chase has a drops problem”-ian patter. But then there is the fact that basically every beat reporter is projecting him to be fighting for the WR3 role and the third or fourth target in a run-first offense. And yet somehow, Woods and Burks are going back-to-back in drafts. Woods is no sure thing to be ready for the start of the season (though his ACL tear was early enough — between Weeks 9 and 10 — that it wouldn’t be a shock), but when he is, he’s the receiver you want in Tennessee and a potential late-round bargain.
40. Is Austin Hooper a TE Sleeper?
It was a steady improvement over four years in Atlanta for Austin Hooper, improving each year from 64.1 PPR points to 119.6 to 163.0 to 191.7. He parlayed that into a four-year big-money deal with Cleveland, where he promptly fell into a low-upside committee, barely equaling his 2019 fantasy total in 2020 and 2021 combined. Now in Tennessee, can he regain the fantasy prowess he offered as a Falcon?
Best Answer: Hooper will be the TE1 in Tennessee. We know that. Will that be fantasy valuable? The easy answer is “probably not,” given how much of this offense runs through Derrick Henry and how much Woods/Burks are likely to command. Still, Hooper is essentially free in drafts, and there are no other tight ends available in his range with even the moderate upside he provides. Probably ignore him, but if you are digging deep, I’d rather Hooper than just about any other tight end outside the top 18 or so.
