Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
(Knowing the right question to ask is as important as knowing the answer. In 100 Questions, FTN’s Daniel Kelley identifies the key fantasy football questions to ask heading into the 2021 NFL season. Today: The AFC South.)
For obvious, Aaron Rodgers-y reasons, DraftKings Sportsbook doesn’t currently have a wins over/under line for the Green Bay Packers. But if you assume the Packers would be projected for more than 8 wins (with Rodgers, that’s safe), then the AFC South has comfortably the lowest total win projections of any division, currently 29.
This could be a bad division in 2021. But that’s for real fantasy. How about for fantasy?
Houston Texans
The Texans’ fall from grace has been one of the fastest in memory. They made the playoffs in back-to-back years, four times in five years and six in nine before 2020’s miserable 4-12, and now, with new names basically everywhere, the slide could continue.
29-31. We can skip tight end, but quarterback, running back, wide receiver — is there anything here for us?
These were originally meant to be three separate questions, in keeping with our conceit here, but … it’s really all the same question, right? “Where is the Houston fantasy value?” We might never see Deshaun Watson on the football field again, and if we do, it appears unlikely to be in Houston. David Johnson looked fairly dusty last year, and now he has Phillip Lindsay, Rex Burkhead and Mark Ingram to fend off. Will Fuller is gone, and now the receiver room includes rookie Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Keke Coutee. You underwhelmed? I am.
Best answer: Let’s knock quarterback out quickly: Tyrod Taylor appears set as the quarterback. If so, his legs should give leave with an OK floor, but his recent history and the chance he doesn’t have the job for long means you can’t really draft him outside of deep multi-QB leagues.
So, running back. In our FTN Fantasy rankings, Johnson comes in 37th in PPR, with Lindsay 51st, Ingram 71st and Burkhead 103rd. I think it’s unlikely all four are on the roster come Week 1, so we could maybe bump the survivors a spot or two to account for that. But really, other than grabbing Johnson as a “last running back with even marginal starting workload,” I don’t know how you’d draft any of these backs. Or why.
Wide receiver is where it’s (almost) interesting. Somewhat sneakily, Cooks ended 2020 as the PPR WR17 with 1,150 yards, and he was the overall WR1 in Weeks 16-17, totaling 18 receptions for 307 yards and 3 TD. With Fuller gone, Collins could slide in to take a chunk of his 6.8 targets per game. And Coutee was productive down the stretch, WR31 in Weeks 11-17, largely with Fuller suspended. Of course, Coutee and Cooks did that with Watson. With Taylor, AJ McCarron or Davis Mills? You can’t expect much. Take Cooks as a WR4. Take Collins as a super-deep flyer.
But the answer to “What is there for fantasy in Houston?” is “Oh, not much.” Take a marker, X over the team when you draft, you’ll probably have a better time.
Indianapolis Colts
Stability is traditionally a key to success. To win consistently, a team is supposed to need a steady hand at quarterback. For example, five teams have failed to have the same No. 1 quarterback in consecutive years since 2018. Four (Carolina, Denver, Miami, Washington) have an average record of 18.5-29.5, with the only playoff appearance being Washington’s 7-9 division title last year.
And then there’s Indianapolis, where “stability” hasn’t been a thing since Peyton Manning left. The Colts have gone 28-20 in the same stretch those other teams have scuffled and have two playoff appearances in three years. And they’re going to continue their lack of stability in 2021, following up Andrew Luck–Jacoby Brissett–Philip Rivers with Carson Wentz.
32. Can Jonathan Taylor be a top-3 running back?
Jonathan Taylor’s rookie season started slow-ish. He averaged 13.5 carries for 51.8 yards and 0.4 TDs through 10 games, PPR’s RB16. And then after missing a game to the Reserve/COVID-19 list, Taylor closed like a man possessed, averaging 19.4 carries, 130.2 yards and 1.4 TDs over the last five weeks and edging out David Montgomery for the fantasy RB1.
Best answer: Parsing a season out to chunks is a way to make a mistake. View Taylor’s hot close to 2020 as what could be, not what will be. But that “could” is extremely tantalizing, and that’s why Taylor is currently RB6 by ADP, RB7 by our FTN Fantasy rankings. Don’t be surprised if Taylor climbs ahead of Saquon Barkley as news about his recovery continues, either. Taylor is an easy RB1 in 2021 and has among the best shots at climbing into the tip-top tier.
33. Is Carson Wentz worth a fantasy flier?
Wentz’ passing famously cratered in 2020, though for fantasy, his legs (5 rushing touchdowns after 3 combined in his first four years) kept him somewhat afloat. Now on a new team but with his old coach, the Colts are taking a gamble they can rebuild him.
Best answer: “A player who was once valuable is now steeply discounted because of struggles” is often a decent gamble, and said steep discount means the risk is low. Taking Wentz in drafts right now costs you a pick in the 13th round, with very few interesting names going in his range. What’s the harm? If you wait on QB, grab Wentz as one of your guys. You’ll know fast if it’s a failed experiment and you can get out. I’m taking that flier.
34. Are Parris Campbell and/or Michael Pittman worth post-hype sleeper status?
I’m a Colts fan, so Colts memories lodge in my brain pretty effectively. So to confirm my memory, I googled “2020 fantasy football sleepers.” And yep, almost without fail, Parris Campbell or Michael Pittman appeared over and over. They were exciting. They had potential. They … fell flat. Both were bitten by the injury bug, Campbell worse. He played two games and had 8 touches for 87 yards. Pittman missed a few weeks in the middle of the season, playing 13 games and putting up a receiving line of 40-503-1 on 61 targets.
Best answer: Drafting for someone you’re likely to rely on? Pittman is the answer, and he’s genuinely interesting, a 2020 second-rounder who had 1,275 yards and 11 touchdowns on 101 targets in 2019 at USC. He’s going 44th among receivers per ADP and, if Wentz is anything at all, should return value on that. If you want a flier? Campbell is going in the WR70 range — just about free, and well below his 2020 ADP. If you thought he was a 2020 sleeper, you should still think it.
Jacksonville Jaguars
It’s not that the Jaguars have never been decent. They have. Three division titles, seven playoff appearances and two Conference Championship games in 26 seasons. But for fantasy, they’ve just been so boring. Search the best fantasy seasons in Jacksonville history, and you get a handful of Maurice Jones-Drew, a few Fred Taylor and Jimmy Smith, and then a bunch of guys appearing once, twice each.
But we might be entering a new era in Jacksonville, and that era could be an interesting one.
35. What do you get when you cross a thousand-yard UDFA with a guy who scored 78 touchdowns in college?
James Robinson was one of the revelations of 2020. He went from buried on the depth chart and ignored in fantasy to the PPR RB7, and only a late injury kept him from the top five. And so the new regime in Jacksonville responded by … drafting Travis Etienne, Trevor Lawrence’s main back at Clemson and a guy with 6,000 yards and 78 touchdowns in college.
Best answer: Drafters have no idea — by ADP, Etienne and Robinson are going back-to-back, 22nd and 23rd. Our FTN Fantasy rankings have a bit more of a gap — Etienne is 24th, but Robinson is down at 32nd. I think Robinson’s rank there is fine. But Etienne? Maybe I’m naive, but the Jaguars didn’t burn the 25th overall pick (on a team with needs everywhere) on a running back who won’t get heavy usage. I’d take Etienne as a mid-RB2 and be completely happy with it.
36. Suddenly the Jags have three receivers we care about? How do we rank them?
D.J. Chark followed up a breakout 2019 (PPR WR17) with a disappointing 2020 (WR49). Laviska Shenault was WR46 as a rookie and was one of only four receivers (with Curtis Samuel, Robert Woods and Tyreek Hill) with more than 10 carries. And the team signed Marvin Jones, who averaged more than 13.5 PPR points per game across five years in Detroit.
Best answer: If you recall my analysis of the Bengals/Steelers receivers, it was basically “no one really knows, so take one and hope it’s right.” Well here, people think they do know — there’s a fair delineation between Chark (going as a late WR2), Shenault (more of a mid WR3) and Jones (high-end flex) … except, why is that? Chark’s ceiling is probably the highest, but Jones has more of a track record, and Shenault has more versatility. No, I’m going to basically say that these three are of similar value, which would mean drafting the cheapest: Jones.
37. Is Trevor Lawrence a fantasy starter in Year 1?
I’m hardly the first to note this, but Lawrence is the least-talked-about “generational prospect” ever. And sure, that’s because he’s been the clear top pick for like four years and then there were four other first-round QBs to talk about, but it’s still crazy how the next apparent superstar is here and nobody is really talking about it.
Best answer: Lawrence has a decent stable of weaponry, an awful defense, and enough legs (17 rushing scores at Clemson the last two years) to offer a nice Konami Code upside. You can get him at QB15 right now, and some of the guys going ahead of him (namely, Matt Ryan and Joe Burrow) should … not be ahead of him.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans finally broke through to an 11-5 first-place finish last year after four straight years at 9-7. They did that despite allowing 439 points, the ninth most in the league and comfortably the most of any playoff team. So this offseason, their big addition was … more offense, in the form of Julio Jones. Strengthen the strength, as they say.
38. Julio Jones is really his team’s No. 2 receiver? That Julio Jones?
Julio Jones is 32 now, and we have to expect he’s closer to his end than his beginning. But lest you really think that started last year … he averaged 85.7 yards per game when he was active last year, seventh in the league, and if you take out the two games he barely played (15 snaps in Week 4, 22 in Week 11), that average was 100.0 yards on the nose, best in the league. Of course, A.J. Brown’s been a superstar so far.
Best answer: Current ADP says Brown is WR8, Jones WR18. Current FTN Fantasy rankings say WR9 and WR16. It should be even closer. Brown’s fantastic, no question. But Jones is too. The only thing holding either guy back might be the Titans’ light-passing ways. I think Jones’ ADP/ranking is fair, but I’d pull back on Brown’s. The team’s tendencies and the elite teammate could cap his ceiling.
39. Is there still any intrigue in Anthony Firkser?
When Jonnu Smith left for New England, Corey Davis left for New York, and the biggest name the Titans brought in was Josh Reynolds, there was plenty of hype around Anthony Firkser, fantasy’s TE1 with Smith banged up in Week 6 last year. And then the Julio trade happened, and per Fantasy Football Calculator, Firkser quickly dropped about two rounds in ADP, from “sleeper” to “last-round at best.”
Best answer: The chances dropped, clearly. But the perceptions dropped even further. Firkser’s ADP peers now are names like O.J. Howard, Christopher Herndon and Dawson Knox. Firkser is a class above those guys. Don’t draft them at all. Probably don’t draft Firkser either, but when you’re scrounging, scrounge him first.
40. Maybe you’re a handcuffing type, but does that matter in Tennessee?
Derrick Henry has 681 carries in the last two seasons. David Montgomery is fifth on that list, at 489. That’s a 192-carry difference. To get to 192 carries below Montgomery, you have to go down to 26th, right between Devin Singletary and Latavius Murray. Dalvin Cook has the second-most carries in that span and even he’s 119 carries back. Henry is the workhorse-iest of the workhorses.
Best answer: As a third-round rookie last year, Darrynton Evans got all of 14 carries for 54 yards, plus 2 receptions for 27 yards. He was a bona fide contributor at Appalachian State, though, with 1,678 yards and 23 total touchdowns in his final year in 2019. And if you’re handcuffing, you aren’t doing it in hopes the player will contribute for you week-to-week; you’re doing it in search of an insurance policy if your big name goes down. Evans isn’t Derrick Henry. But with Brian Hill, Jeremy McNichols and (somehow) even lesser names after Evans, if you are looking for a Tennessee handcuff, Evans could be an interesting last-round pick.
