100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2023 (NFC South)

(As we head toward training camp and the start of preseason, our own Daniel Kelley is asking — and attempting to answer — the most pressing questions around fantasy football for 2023. This is 100 Questions.)

NFC South

The 2022 Buccaneers marked the fourth time a division has been won by a team with a losing record. The previous three times (2010-11 NFC West, 2014-15 NFC South, 2020-2021 NFC East), that same team won at least 12 games the next year, averaging a record 13.3-3. The overall divisions improved as well. Maybe that means something for the 2023 NFC South and maybe it doesn’t, but it’s interesting:

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons went to the Super Bowl at the end of the 2016 season. They nabbed a wild card spot with a 10-6 record in the 2017 season. And they not only haven’t made it back to the playoff since, haven’t finished a season with a winning record since, the Atlanta Falcons haven’t spent a single day over .500 since the end of the 2017 season. That feels really hard to do:

41. I Wanna Draft Bijan Robinson 1.01! Am I Crazy?

The Issue

• Falcons ran on 55.3% of plays last year (second in NFL)
• 12 rookie running backs have put up at least 300 PPR points in a season, with the highest finishes being including Saquon Barkley (RB1, 2018), Eric Dickerson (RB1, 1983), Billy Sims (RB1, 1980), Herschel Walker (RB1, 1986), Edgerrin James (RB2, 1999) and Ezekiel Elliott (RB2, 2016) putting up top-two finishes

Best Answer

First off, anyone who refuses to rank Bijan Robinson near the top strictly for “well he’s never played an NFL snap” reasons is not to be listened to. Sure, maybe that’s a mark against Robinson, but Christian McCaffrey potentially losing work to Elijah Mitchell is a mark against him, and Austin Ekeler’s lack of a 1,000-yard season is a mark against him, and … so on. Would I take Bijan Robinson first overall? Probably not — as noted in the first piece in this series, Cooper Kupp is my 1.01 in 2023. But RB1? I wouldn’t argue against that for a second. 

42. Yo Kyle Pitts, What the Heck Are You?

The Issue

• Fourth-most PPR points for a rookie tight end in NFL history in 2021 (176.6 points), the most for a tight end 21 or younger
• Only 356 yards, 47.5% catch rate, 6.0 yards per target in 2022
• 3 touchdowns in 27 career games — 40 tight ends have more

Best Answer

In my bold predictions a year ago, I wrote that Kyle Pitts would be a top-three tight end and probably not No. 3. That … did not turn out well. But the reasoning behind it, I maintain, was fairly sound. Pitts was arguably the most athletic tight end in NFL history, coming off a history rookie season — he should have been great. And yes, to be absolutely clear, a player’s failures are his failures, but Pitts could scarcely have been put in a worse situation in 2022, with an offensive that wanted to run the ball and a quarterback who couldn’t find a way to get him the ball.

Desmond Ridder is no sure thing, of course, but he could be regular run-of-the-mill bad and still make Pitts work more than Marcus Mariota did. I can’t argue for Pitts as a top-three tight end at this point, but his upside is so absolutely tantalizing that I would still take him at TE5 — after Travis Kelce, T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews and George Kittle, but before the rest of the position. It’s an acceptable risk.

43. Is Desmond Ridder Even Good, and Also Does It Matter?

The Issue

Among 48 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks last year, Ridder was…

• 41^st in yards per attempt (6.2)
• 43^rd in PFF grade (55.9)
• 45^th in adjusted completion percentage (68.5%)

In four games, he finished QB26 or worse three times and QB11 in a Week 18 that featured many starting quarterbacks barely play or sit.

Best Answer

I’m far more interested in the second half of that question than the first. When the Eagles and Dolphins weren’t altogether sold on Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa, respectively, as their QBs of the future, they made that question not matter by giving them so many weapons they couldn’t really fail. Virtually any NFL-caliber quarterback could make it work with A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith or with Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle. Hurts now has a generational contract, and if Tagovailoa can play like he did when healthy last year and avoid injury, he’ll find a long-term deal as well. Gun to your head, are you sure they’re actually good? Or have their teams rendered that question irrelevant? The Falcons don’t have the weaponry the Eagles and Dolphins do, but the Falcons have spent top-10 picks on the first tight end, wide receiver and running back off the board the last three years, and they have them all lined up alongside our No. 3 offensive line. Ridder might be good, might not be. But I don’t think it matters that much — he’s a low-end QB2 for me pretty much either way.

Carolina Panthers

There have been 21 seasons since the NFL’s last realignment. Over the first 20 years, the Panthers finished first in the NFC South five times, second five times, third five times and fourth five times. They officially finished second last year, so I don’t know where they’ll finish in 2023, but simple math and patterns tell us it has to be somewhere other than second.

44. Did Miles Sanders Bring His Hands to Carolina?

The Issue

• Sanders as a rookie in 2019: 63 targets, 50 receptions, 509 yards, 3 touchdowns, 74.7 PFF receiving grade
• Sanders since 2019: 112 targets, 74 receptions, 433 yards, 0 touchdowns, PFF receiving grades of 33.9, 65.7 and 35.5
• Philadelphia Eagles running backs coach, 2019: Duce Staley
• Carolina Panthers running backs coach, 2023: Duce Staley

Best Answer

You never know how much of what a player says is real vs. how much of it is just trying not to say “I took the most money,” but in the wake of signing with Carolina early in free agency, Miles Sanders couldn’t stop talking about what reuniting with Staley meant for him. “We’re going to get back to what we’ve been doing” doesn’t have to mean “Sanders will catch passes,” but it certainly might mean that. And given the Panthers’ backups are Chuba Hubbard, who has barely caught passes in the NFL or in college, and second-year UDFA Raheem Blackshear, Sanders certainly has a shot at being the team’s pass-catching back as well as its bell cow on the ground, and if so, he’ll blow past his RB20 ADP.

45. Does Adam Thielen Have Anything Left, and If Not Him, Then Who?

The Issue

• Top returning receivers in Carolina: Terrace Marshall (490 yards, 1 TD in 2022) and Laviska Shenault (272 and 1)
• Top rookie: Second-rounder Jonathan Mingo (861 and 5 at Ole Miss)
• Top free agents: DJ Chark (502 and 3 in Detroit) and Adam Thielen (716 and 6 in Minnesota)
• Thielen had 10.51 yards per target in 2016 and 2.33 yards per route run in 2017; those numbers have dropped every season since to career-lows of 6.69 and 1.06 in 2023:

Best Answer

There is no such thing as a total do-not-draft player, because at some point anyone who will see the field has some value. That said, I am willing to bet I come out of draft season with exactly zero shares of Adam Thielen, because I just can’t imagine he will be worth much in Carolina. In his old confines, with his longtime quarterback, where he has to be at his most comfortable, Thielen was a raw quantity play only in 2022, and the quantity wasn’t great. That was basically true in 2021, but Thielen had an unsustainable TD rate that year that buoyed his numbers (and it wasn’t on a load of end-zone targets, as his 2020 scoring rate had been; Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson stole those). My vote is that he’s done.

So who do you target in Carolina? Thielen’s current ADP is WR65. One spot later is Jonathan Mingo. One spot after that is DJ Chark. So pick your flavor there — the underwhelming veteran or the spotty rookie. I think Chark will be better on a per-target basis, though he’s dealt with injury. Give me Chark, take Mingo if you want — just don’t take Thielen.

46. Can Hayden Hurst Have His Third ‘Best’ Season?

The Issue

• Hurst in Atlanta in 2020: 88 targets, 56 receptions, 571 yards, 6 touchdowns, PPR TE10
• Hurst in Cincinnati in 2022: 68 targets, 42 receptions, 414 yards, 2 touchdowns, PPR TE21
• 2022 was somehow Hurst’s best season?

Best Answer

Our FTN Fantasy projections have Hayden Hurst being roughly the same as his Bengals season last year, arguably slightly better, at 66.7 targets, 48.1 receptions, 434.9 yards and 1.9 touchdowns. That’s the sort of high-ish-floor, low-ceiling numbers that you might look for if you punted completely on tight end in a deep league, or if you are trolling for emergency fill-ins. That’s Hurst’s role in fantasy now, and it’s not a valueless one. You probably aren’t drafting him, but he’ll land on at least half the rosters in your league at some point in 2023.

New Orleans Saints

Despite finishing with the same 7-10 record as the Falcons and Panthers, one game back of the 8-9 Buccaneers, the Saints never really seemed relevant in 2022, a virtue of starting 1-3, 2-5, 3-7, 4-9 before reeling off three straight wins in Weeks 15-17 to get to a somewhat respectable number. Not all 7-10 records are made equally.

47. How Do We Rank the Non-Olave Receivers?

The Issue

• Chris Olave in 2022: 119 targets, 72 receptions, 1,042 yards
• Rashid Shaheed: 32 targets, 28 receptions, 488 yards, also 57 yards on the ground
• Michael Thomas: Only 3 games, but 7.3 targets, 5.3 receptions, 57.0 yards per game
• Also on the roster: Tre’Quan Smith, rookie sixth-rounder A.T. Perry, Bryan Edwards, Keith Kirkwood for the 547^th time

Best Answer

Apologies to Smith, Perry, Edwards and Kirkwood, and with the obvious concession that Olave is the WR1 in New Orleans, this question is really “What about Shaheed and Thomas?” They are polar opposites in a lot of ways — Thomas is a veteran 30-year-old slot monster who has missed 40 of 50 games the last three years and has one career play over 50 yards; Shaheed is a second-year 24-year-old speed demon who had three receptions of 50-plus yards just inside of his 28 catches last year. So what do we do? Well, if you didn’t read our Saints Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions, is … get ‘em both. Perhaps not literally, but I think all three Saints receivers have value this year. Shaheed’s value is more in best ball because of the spike plays, but if we assume health (never sure!), I’d be fine taking either of Shaheed or Thomas as a flex play with upside.

48. What the Heck Do You Do with This Backfield?

The Issue

• Alvin Kamara: 3.9 YPA last two years after 5.0 career before that, career-low 4 TDs in 2022, facing possible suspension, turns 28 in July
• Jamaal Williams: Free agent acquisition, more rush TDs in 2022 (17) than rest of career combined (13), never better than 4.3 yards per carry in a season, 28 already
• Kendre Miller: Third-rounder, on NFI list to start camp (but not expected to be a problem), 17 touchdowns for TCU last year
• Taysom Hill: Still a tight end for fantasy, but 96 carries for 575 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2022

Best Answer

The first part of this answer is try like mad to not draft until after we get whatever news we might get about Alvin Kamara’s suspension — there are no longer any roadblocks for the NFL to announcing it, but that doesn’t mean they have to do it on our timeline. But if you have to draft before that news comes down, you can currently get Kamara at RB32. He’s about the most risk/reward RB in fantasy this year. Maybe he doesn’t get suspended, keeps most or all of his bell cow role and returns RB1 value. Maybe he misses up to half of the season to suspension, his YPA portended further decline and he is barely playable in fantasy. At RB32, maybe that’s worth the risk, but it is a risk.

Meanwhile, Williams is an inefficient back who got lucky at the goal line last year, and Miller is in 3.5^th on the depth chart, owing to Taysom Hill’s presence. Maybe I’m drafting Kamara, but generally, the only part of the Saints backfield I want is Hill, strictly because of his TE eligibility, and even then it’s only as depth in super-deep leagues. There are just too many questions and not enough upside here. 

49. Can Derek Carr Rebound?

The Issue

Derek Carr in 2022:

• 305 completions on 502 attempts (both career lows)
• 60.8% completion percentage, 3,522 passing yards (both worst since 2014 rookie year)
• 66.6 PFF overall grade, 65.4 passing grade (worst since rookie year)
• 14.6 fantasy points per game (lowest since 2018)
• 9.7-yard aDOT (career high)

Best Answer

Derek Carr will pass for 3,500-4,100 yards and 20-25 touchdowns in 2023. Why do I say that so confidently? Because, within a small margin of error, Derek Carr always passes for 3,500-4,100 yards and 20-25 touchdowns.  He’s been in that yardage range every year but 2014 (3,270) and 2021 (4,804) and in that touchdown range five of the last six years (27 in 2020). He doesn’t run much (career-high 140 yards and 3 TDs in 2020). And Taysom Hill will probably get a handful of pass plays and goal-line dives. The problem for Carr is slightly that he’s gotten worse, but more than the bar for QBs has risen. He’s QB19 in drafts, and given his general lack of upside, I think that’s fine, even with his relatively high floor.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers won the division in 2021 with 13 wins, then won it again in 2022 with 8. The only other team in NFL history that has won back-to-back division titles despite winning 5 fewer games in the second year is the 2013-2014 Panthers, who went from 12-4 to 7-8-1. That means absolutely nothing, but I took the time to look it up, so you have to read it.

(The Panthers won 15 games the next year, which would be a hell of a thing for this version of the Buccaneers to do.)

50. Mike Evans or Chris Godwin? Chris Godwin or Mike Evans?

The Issue

• Godwin since 2019: 353 receptions, 25 touchdowns, 8.1-yard aDOT
• Evans since 2019: 288 receptions, 41 touchdowns, 13.2-yard aDOT
• That said…

Best Answer

If we assume Baker Mayfield is the starter in Tampa (and lord, he should be), that’s a QB who has never had an aDOT over 9.6 yards in a season and who has done his best work on intermediate passing. That screams Chris Godwin, who currently is slightly ahead of Mike Evans in ADP, WR27 to WR30. That said, my generic answer here is “neither,” as I’m on record as saying neither one reaches fantasy starter territory. So I rank them “neither,” then Godwin, then Evans.

51. Can Cade Otton Break Through to Fantasy Starter Territory?

The Issue

• Buccaneers tight ends last year combined for 91.3 PPR points (Cade Otton 51.1, Cameron Brate 17.4, Ko Kieft 14.0, Kyle Rudolph 8.8), which would have been TE9
• Otton had the No. 4 TE pass-blocking PFF grade last year (78.3); the Bucs have our 29^th-ranked offensive line

Best Answer

“Fantasy starter territory” might be a tough sell — yes, all the Buccaneers tight ends combined for borderline TE1 production, but (a) the TE1 threshold was really low last year, and (b) you can’t assume one guy gets all that, even if the backups are fairly anonymous. That said, Otton’s pass-blocking prowess should certainly keep him on the field a lot, and given the deficiencies of the offensive line, Mayfield (or Kyle Trask) is going to have to get rid of the ball quickly. That combination has a chance at getting Otton up toward the 100-target range, and every tight end with even 70 targets last year finished TE16 (Tyler Conklin) or better. So even if Otton isn’t a TE1, he’s a heck of a profit on TE35 ADP.

52. Rachaad White: Fantasy Starter Because He’s Good, or Fantasy Starter Because Who Else?

The Issue

• White forced 14 missed tackles on carries last year, fifth worst among 42 backs with at least 100 carries; two of those behind him (James Robinson and Kenyan Drake) are unemployed
• White averaged 2.33 yards after contact per attempt, second worst; the only one worse was teammate Leonard Fournette, also unemployed as I write this
• White’s current backups are Chase Edmonds, Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Patrick Laird

Best Answer

I don’t want to yuck anyone’s yum or anything, but I have yet to see anyone give me a solid reason for drafting Rachaad White as a fantasy starter in 2023. He falls down as soon as he’s touched (more or less) and is going to get touched a lot this year given his line. He’s a fine receiver, I guess, though his 5.0 yards per target last year is 12^th worst among 64 running back seasons with at least 50 target the last three years. Yes, the Edmonds-Vaughn-Laird triumvirate is uninspiring, but either the Bucs go with some kind of committee or (possibly more likely?) the Tampa Bay RB fantasy leader in 2023 is not currently on the roster. So the answer to my question is “not a fantasy starter at all, actually.”