100 Questions: Fantasy Football 2023 (AFC West)

(As we head toward training camp and the start of preseason, our own Daniel Kelley is asking — and attempting to answer — the most pressing questions around fantasy football for 2023. This is 100 Questions.)

AFC West

You could pretty easily argue that the Chiefs are the most dominant team in American pro sports currently. Only 11 divisions across the four major U.S. men’s sports (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL) have had the same winner in even the last two seasons, only four more than two. But the Chiefs have won the AFC West the last seven years in a row, and DraftKings Sportsbook has the Chiefs at -165 to make it eight years, the best division odds of any team heading into the 2023 NFL season.

Denver Broncos

We’ll never know if the Nathaniel Hackett hire in Denver a year ago was purely an Aaron Rodgers play, because why would you admit it if it was, but either way, it would have been one of the most disastrous coaching tenures in recent NFL history if we hadn’t witnessed Urban Meyer in Jacksonville a year earlier. How much of the 2022 crash-and-burn was attributable to Hackett is going to be one of the top storylines of 2023.

77. Are We In on a Russell Wilson Rebound?

The Issue

Russell Wilson’s first year in Denver featured:

• 60.5% completion percentage (career low)
• 16 touchdown passes (career low)
• 84.4 passer rating (career low)
• 6.9 adjusted yards per attempt (career low)
• 55 sacks taken (career high and most in the league)
• He turns 35 in Week 13

Best Answer

Look at those bullets. It’s pretty bad, right? What if I told you his fantasy points per game was actually in line with much of his career?

Of course, that is a complete lie — Wilson’s 15.05 PPG last year was also a career low. But it turns out the drop was almost entirely attributable to his touchdown total:

Wilson’s touchdown percentage in his Seahawks career was 6.2%, only falling under 6% in 2014 (4.4%) and 2016 (3.8%). In Denver last year, it was 3.3%. Give him his career-average touchdown rate, and instead of 16 touchdowns last year, Wilson would have 30, 3.73 more fantasy points per game, and roughly his average season.

It’s not quite that simple, but it’s not not that simple — most of Wilson’s problems in 2022 were bad luck. Switching from Hackett to Sean Payton should matter, familiarity with Denver should matter, but really, if he can just get a little luckier in 2023, we’ll see a rebound. Right now, he’s a bargain at QB18 in drafts. Not a screaming bargain, but a bargain.

78. How Do You Sort Out These Receivers?

The Issue

• Courtland Sutton: Second-round pick in 2018, career-high 1,112 yards in 2019, hasn’t been the same since 2020 torn ACL
• Jerry Jeudy: First-round pick in 2020, career-high 972 yards in 2022, WR6 in Weeks 13-18 last year
• Tim Patrick: Undrafted in 2017, back-to-back seasons with at least 730 yards and 5 touchdowns in 2020-2021, missed 2022 with torn ACL
• KJ Hamler: Second-round pick in 2020, missed 27 games in three years, currently recovering from pectoral injury
• Marvin Mims: Second-round pick in 2023, 1,083 yards (20.1 yards per reception) at Oklahoma in 2022

Best Answer

When you have this kind of mishmash, you have to start with eliminating options. The first cross-off is clearly Hamler, who might not even hold on to his roster spot given his injury and Mims’ arrival. Next up, we have to eliminate Sutton — which hurts, because he was my pick for the WR1 in his draft class. But as our Sam Choudhury noted in his Broncos betting preview, Sutton averaged only 4.8 targets and 22.8 yards in five games Jeudy and TE Greg Dulcich each played at least 10 snaps. After that, Patrick and Mims are both interesting as depth pieces, but only Jeudy has difference-maker potential, as he displayed down the stretch last year. At WR24 by ADP, Jeudy may actually be undervalued.

79. Javonte Williams or Samaje Perine?

The Issue

• Williams, Week 12-14, 2021: 372 scrimmage yards, 4 touchdowns, three top-10 weekly finishes (including one top-1) in three games
• Williams, rest of career: 1,127 scrimmage yards, 3 touchdowns, one top-10 weekly finish (RB9) in 18 games
• Williams tore his ACL, LCL and posterolateral corner in Week 4 of 2022
• Perine: Turns 28 in Week 2, hasn’t topped 400 rushing yards since 2017, but PPR RB2 in Weeks 11-13 last year when Joe Mixon was hurt

Best Answer

You can look at how the Broncos approached the running game this offseason in two ways. The optimistic view is that they signed two linemen, a strong blocker at tight end and a fullback, boosting the chances for the backfield, and by only bringing in Samaje Perine, they limited the names we have to deal with to just him and Javonte Williams (unless you are a believer in Tony Jones/Tyler Badie, and I am not), and that leaves a lot of carries in a Sean Payton offense. The pessimistic view is that their OL/TE acquisitions were to give Russell Wilson more time to pass, that even with a host of receivers on the roster they still drafted Marvin Mims and signed Marquez Callaway, that by only signing a relatively minor name like Perine despite Williams’ injury, they were signaling to us that they aren’t going to rely on their running game so much. I lean to the latter — I think this team will sink or swim by its passing game. But even if I’m wrong, we have a running back at RB29 coming back from a major knee injury, and we have a backup at RB34 who might lose his role to a guy coming back from a major knee injury. In short, I’d be, uh, nervous about investing in the Denver running back.

Kansas City Chiefs

There’s not a lot left for Patrick Mahomes to accomplish as a Chief, really. He’s won two Super Bowls, two MVPs, two Super Bowl MVPs. He’s made five Pro Bowls, three All-Pros, one Offensive Player of the Year. He could retire today and sail into the Hall of Fame. (I mean, he won’t, but he could.) But here’s a fun one: Before Mahomes, the Chiefs had a 9-18 postseason record all time, comfortably the worst in the NFL (that’s .333; the Lions are the worst now at 7-13, .350). After Mahomes has led them to an 11-3 playoff record in his five years, they sit at 20-21 all time. That means that another Super Bowl run, win or lose, would take the Chiefs from a .333 postseason winning percentage to over .500 within six years. Amazing.

80. How Strong an Argument Does Travis Kelce Have to Be 1.01?

The Issue

You know what? No bullets. Let’s just look at a couple charts:

In short, Travis Kelce put up the second-highest point total for a tight end (behind Rob Gronkowski’s ridiculous 2011) while simultaneously shattering the mark for biggest lead over the TE2. Not bad.

Best Answer

I’m not going back through the entire history of ADP to check it, but I would be very good money that Kelce is the first 33-year-old to ever get serious consideration to be the first overall pick, seeing as how quarterbacks never go that high. That said … it’s not a complete no-fly zone. Barring injury, you’re locking in a top finisher at a position almost every week — Kelce had 11 top-four finishes in 17 games last year, nine in 16 in 2021, 10 in 16 in 2020. The downside is obvious — taking Kelce at 1.01 means you’re passing at running back or wide receiver early, and taking Kelce early increases the potential benefit of taking Mahomes early as well, so you might lack at both. So here’s what I can tell you: You can take Kelce 1.01 (or close) if you want, but I wouldn’t do it without some practice drafts first. Maybe mocks, maybe low-stakes best balls, but it’s the strategy that most requires some advance prep. Don’t do it in your first draft of the season. 

81. Are You Taking Kadarius Toney Seriously?

The Issue

• Two seasons, 3 touchdowns, 65 touches, 19 of 34 games played
• WR5 in Week 5, 2021 (10 receptions on 13 targets for 189 yards, 1 carry for 7 yards); WR14 in Week 10, 2022 (4 receptions on 5 targets for 57 yards and a touchdown, 2 carries for 33 yards); those are his only top-25 weekly finishes
• Played only 8 snaps (offense/special teams) in the Super Bowl, but scored a touchdown and almost another
• Two of Chiefs’ top four receivers by yards in 2022 (JuJu Smith Schuster, 933; Mecoel Hardman, 297) are gone

Best Answer

I will bet money that Kadarius Toney doesn’t finish within 15 spots of his ADP (currently WR36). If he’s worth a pick, he’ll be a star in an offense that really needs a second in command behind Kelce, and if that happens, he’ll be a borderline top-20 receiver. If he’s not worth a pick, he really won’t be worth one, barely a part of the offense whether through injury of not-actually-being-good-ness. What does that mean for you? Well, if you wait on receiver and are looking for a starter in Toney’s range, I would avoid him like the plague, because you can’t count on him. But if you have your starters and are looking for a flex/upside bench option, cannonball.

82. Can Isiah Pacheco Be a Worthwhile Fantasy Starter?

The Issue

• First start: Week 7; first game with 15-plus carries: Week 10
• Despite that, 830 rushing yards (fifth among rookie backs) and 5 touchdowns (tied for second)
• Despite that, RB35 by points per game in Weeks 7-18; zero weeks as an RB1, seven weeks as an RB2 (best finish: RB15)

Best Answer

At RB27 in drafts, you don’t need a running back who will finish as an RB1 a bunch of times. But what you do need is a back who can finish as an RB1 a bunch of times. Isiah Pacheco more or less cannot. With the return of Jerick McKinnon, with Travis Kelce soaking up the targets, even with Clyde Edwards-Helaire still hanging around, Pacheco isn’t likely to grow much from his 14 targets in 17 games last year, and with essentially no receiving upside, he just can’t get you very far — Jamaal Williams was the only running back to crack the top 20 last year with under 20 targets, and only four of the top 30 had under 30 targets. Pacheco is likely to be one of the most boring backs in the game to top 900 yards, and that’s just not what you want to be drafting.

Las Vegas Raiders

Call it the Curse of Rich Gannon: The Raiders won the Super Bowl in 2002. In 20 seasons since then, they’ve had 12 head coaches, no division titles, two playoff appearances, zero playoff wins, two home cities, 20 quarterbacks with at least one start, and a .360 winning percentage (116-206). And with DraftKings Sportsbook having the Raiders pegged for 6.5 wins, and the rest of the division over .500, it looks like the curse continues.

83. So Davante Adams Has His Worst Ever QB Now?

The Issue

• Touchdowns thrown to Adams, career: Aaron Rodgers (68 in 108 games), Derek Carr (12 in 15), Brett Hundley (5 in eight), Jarrett Stidham (2 in two)
• Jimmy Garoppolo: 7 touchdowns in 6 games, 2020; 20 touchdowns in 15 games, 2021; 16 touchdowns in 11 games, 2022
• Garoppolo had 4 touchdowns and 496 passing yards in two starts with the Patriots in 2016; then-Pats OC Josh McDaniels is his head coach now

Best Answer

Imagine you’re Jimmy Garoppolo. You were basically the consolation prize of an offseason with several big-time first-round prospects in the draft and a Hall of Famer on the trading block. You have foot surgery in the offseason that leads to (a) punch lines and (b) fears that somehow your team will be starting Brian Hoyer and/or begging Tom Brady to unretire. The surgery causes the team to lower your guarantees, to the point that they could get out after the season without doomsday-style hits and get out before 2025 for basically nothing. You’re 32 and probably playing for one more contract at most. You really want to be good. Now, reports are that you’re healthy. In that scenario, are you throwing to Jakobi Meyers, Austin Hooper, Keelan Cole or Phillip Dorsett? Basically, everything in Las Vegas is pointing toward Garoppolo absolutely peppering Davante Adams, which is why Adams is the fourth-favorite on DraftKings to lead the league in receptions, and I think he should be higher. Adams is WR7 by ADP, and maybe a lesser QB caps his TD upside, but I think he should be higher.

84. Do We Care at All About the Other Pass-Catcher?

The Issue

• Jakobi Meyers was WR29 each of the last two years
• Hunter Renfrow was WR10 in 2021, but WR92 in 2022 (WR70 by fantasy PPG)
• Next receivers on the roster: Keelan Cole, Phillip Dorsett, DeAndre Carter, Cam Sims; tight ends: Austin Hooper, rookie Michael Mayer, O.J. Howard

Best Answer

Some head coaches become head coaches and bring in a few of their former guys. Some become head coaches and don’t. Josh McDaniels is the former. He added Brandon Bolden, Jakob Johnson and Chandler Jones last year, then went ham this offseason, with Garoppolo, Hoyer, Meyers, Dorsett and Carter (and more) all bringing Patriots lines on their resumes to Las Vegas. That doesn’t inherently mean Meyers is going to be the WR2, but combine it with whispers Sunday that Hunter Renfrow might not even make the roster, and it’s clear (to me at least) that Meyers has the WR2 role … except, who cares? Mack Hollins was the leading non-Davante Adams Raider in targets last year at 94, and even with that he was only WR46. Meyers might pop on your roster in bye weeks, but you’ll never be excited about it. 

85. Josh Jacobs Sure Had a Lot of Touches Last Year, Didn’t He?

The Issue

• Jacobs had 393 touches in 2022, most in the league and fifth most in the last decade
• 20 players in the last decade have had at least 350 touches and averaged 15.0 PPR PPG
• Excluding the 2022 contingent (Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley), those players have gone from 21.99 PPG in Year 1 to 16.50 in Year 2, a decline of 24.9%

Best Answer

As I did in the Giants part of the NFC East 100 Questions, I’m setting aside the question of Josh Jacobs’ contract. Either he’ll report or he won’t, either he’ll play or he won’t, and hopefully your draft comes after we figure that out. Beyond that, it’s just guesswork. But on the field, we can more or less lock in that Jacobs’ scoring will go down from what it was in 2023 — among our 17-player sample who had 350-plus touches and 15-plus PPG in 2013-2021, 14 saw their PPG decline the next year, and two of the three who increased (2020-2021 Derrick Henry and 2019-2020 Christian McCaffrey) increased in PPG but missed significant time to injury (9 games for Henry, 13 for McCaffrey) so were still a net loss. Only 2013-2014 Matt Forte in the last 10 years put up 350 or more touches and 15 PPG and improved in PPG the next year, going from 363 touches and 21.1 PPG to 368 and 21.7. Jacobs’ workload should still lock him in as an RB1 as long as he’s healthy, but the tolls of the workload make him a back-end RB1 for me, a bit below his RB7 ADP.

Los Angeles Chargers

In the first season of 24 way back in 2001, Jacqui Maxwell played Janet York for six episodes. That’s a brief run, yet even in that time (remember, supposedly six hours of real time as well) we saw her character get kidnapped, drugged and raped. She had her arm broken by the kidnappers, she was hit by a car, and eventually she was murdered by a man posing as her father, who has also been murdered. On show message boards (RIP TelevisionWithoutPity), it became a running joke of what could happen to her next. 

I feel like that’s been the experience of being a Chargers fan over the last decade or so. Everything that could happen to this team has happened, and all you can do is laugh, shake your head, and wonder what could go wrong next.

86. Are We Putting Justin Herbert Right Back in the Top Tier at QB?
87. Will Kellen Moore Fix This Offense?

The Issue

• Justin Herbert, career average depth of target: 7.5 yards
• Dak Prescott, aDOT with Kellen Moore as his OC: 8.8 yards
• Chargers, 2020-2022: 0.37 points per play; Cowboys: 0.41 (approximately 45 points per year difference)

Best Answer

I couldn’t really separate Kellen Moore from Justin Herbert for this one, because one question helps to answer the other. The Chargers of the last couple of seasons were maybe the most infuriating offense we’ve watched, because they had a quarterback with as strong an arm as anyone in the league and — between scheme and personnel — an absolute refusal and/or inability to use that. No offense to Jalen Guyton, but when he’s the only thing approximating a speed option for an arm like Herbert’s, you’re committing malpractice. So maybe it’s Joe Lombardi’s fault that Herbert had to dink and dunk the last few years, or maybe it’s the front office’s fault, or maybe in 2022 (when Herbert’s aDOT fell from 7.8 and 7.9 yards to 7.0) it had more to do with his offensive line being ravaged and his own ribcage trying to escape his body by force.

To answer the questions above, then — “Yes,” and “If it matters, yes.” In other words, I think Herbert will be more like his QB2 self in 2021 than his QB11 in 2022, if for no other reason than he’ll run more successfully — Herbert had 53.4 and 48.2 fantasy points on the ground his first two seasons, but only 14.7 last year, when he was injured, and just giving him about 30 more points on the ground even if nothing else changed would have made him QB5. Add in an offense that, under Moore, should do more down the field and be more creative, and Herbert should return value, even at his already-lofty QB7 ADP.

88. How Do You Rank These WRs?

The Issue

• Keenan Allen: 31 years old, missed three total games 2016-2021 but missed seven in 2022, PPR WR3 Week 11-18 after returning from injury
• Mike Williams: Turns 29 in Week 5, career high of 15.4 PPR points per game in 2021
• Quentin Johnston: Chargers’ first-round pick in 2023, 22^nd overall, second receiver off the board, 1,069 yards for TCU in 2022

Best Answer

Before I dive in overall, I want to point something out that I bet you didn’t know (I didn’t): By PPR points per game, the best season of Mike Williams’ career is worse than the worst season Keenan Allen has put up since Williams’ debut:

It’s not just that — Williams has had a better yards per route run than Allen only once, in 2021 (1.97 to 1.78), and Allen regained that crown last year (2.18 to 1.93). Williams has been the best deep target on the roster, but the Chargers clearly took Johnston with designs on that being his role now. As I said in our Chargers Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions, Williams is going to get middled — Allen is better suited for the short targets, making him the efficient receiver, while Johnston is better suited for the big plays, giving him the explosive factor. By ADP right now, you can get Allen at WR18, and that’s just fine, if possibly underrating him. But Williams is WR26 and Johnston is WR47, and I might not go as far as to say those should be reversed, but I could certainly believe that being the outcome.