NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
With the start of the 2023 NFL season around the corner, I will be going team by team recapping notable moves in the offseason, projecting their outlook for the upcoming league year. I’ll be using the FTN Prop Shop to pick out my favorite bets with the best line available, today covering the Denver Broncos. Stay up to date on the action placed by myself and the rest of the FTN crew in real-time with the FTN Bet Tracker. You can also follow @FTNAlerts on Twitter with push notifications turned on.
2023 NFL Team Roundup: Denver Broncos
2022 Results
Record: 5-12; 4th in the AFC West
Season End: Beat Los Angeles Chargers, 31-28, missed the playoffs
Denver Broncos Offseason Summary
Draft
2.63: Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma
3.67: Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
3.83: Riley Moss, CB, Iowa
6.183: JL Skinner, S, Boise State
7.257: Alex Forsythe, C, Oregon
Marvin Mims, WR (2.63)
The Broncos traded up in the second round to make their first pick in the 2023 draft and selected Oklahoma wide receiver Marvin Mims. As a freshman, Mims received FWAA Freshman All-American honors, catching 9 touchdowns in 11 games, the most by a first-year player in school history. In his last two seasons, Mims led the Sooners in receiving yards while averaging 20-plus yards in each of them. In 2022, Mims set career highs across the board, catching 52 passes for 1,005 yards and six touchdowns.
Additions
Free agent signings: OT Mike McGlinchey, G Ben Powers, EDGE Zach Allen, QB Jarrett Stidham, RB Samaje Perine, TE Chris Manhertz, EDGE Frank Clark, CM Tremon Smith, P Riley Dixon, FB Michael Burton, WR Marquez Callaway, C Kyle Fuller, RB Tony Jones
Trade: HC Sean Payton
Sean Payton, HC
The Broncos lured Sean Payton out of retirement, trading a 2023 first-round pick (No. 30) and a 2024 second-round selection to the Saints in exchange for their new head coach and a 2024 third-rounder. During his coaching tenure in NOLA, Payton became the winningest coach in the history of the franchise with a career 152-89 regular season record (.631 winning percentage). He made the playoffs in 9 out of 15 seasons, leading the team to their first and only Super Bowl championship in 2010.
Mike McGlinchey, OT
Mike McGlinchey was a top-10 draft pick in 2018 (No. 9 overall) and started 69 out of 82 regular season games during his five-year tenure with San Francisco. After missing 12 games with a torn quadriceps in 2021, McGlinchey didn’t miss a single game last season, posting a career-high 81.3% block rate.
Ben Powers, G
Ben Powers made Ravens franchise history last season, becoming the first Baltimore player to not miss a single offensive play, logging a team-high 1,096 total snaps. In 2022 Powers allowed just one sack and gave up the second-fewest quarterback hits (1) and pressures (13) among guards that played at least 1,000 snaps.
Jarrett Stidham, QB
Jarrett Stidham was traded from the Patriots to the Raiders last offseason, where he backed up Derek Carr for most of the 2022 season. He started the last two regular-season games, posting back-to-back strong outings, averaging 328 passing yards and two touchdowns in Weeks 17-18.
Samaje Perine, RB
Samaje Perine spent the last three seasons in Cincinnati, mostly backing up Joe Mixon and operating as the team’s third-down back. He posted career highs as a receiver last season, catching 38 passes for 287 yards and four touchdowns. In two games as the starter in 2022, Perine showed the ability to handle a heavy workload, averaging 24 touches and 124 scrimmage yards, and four touchdowns as the lead back. Perine could be leaned on early in the season, with Javonte Williams still recovering from a torn ACL, LCL and PCL.
Departures
EDGE Dre’Mont Jones, OT Calvin Anderson, FB Andrew Beck, LS Jacob Bobenmoyer, RB Mike Boone, G Graham Glasgow, OLB Jacob Martin, K Brandon McManus, EDGE DeShawn Williams, TE Eric Saubert, OT Billy Turner, RB Latavius Murray, RB Chase Edmonds, TE Eric Tomlinson, CB Darius Phillips, QB Brett Rypien, CB Lamar Jackson
Dre’Mont Jones, EDGE
Dre’Mont Jones played the last four seasons in Denver and started 13 out of 17 games last season. In 2022, Jones posted a career-high 47 tackles and matched his career-best mark in sacks (6.5).
Latavius Murray, RB
Latavius Murray was a mid-season acquisition for the Broncos and played in the last 12 games, leading the team in rushing attempts (160), rushing yards (703), and rushing touchdowns (5). He also finished fifth on the team in targets and receptions, catching 26 of 34 passes for 124 yards through the air.
Schedule
Week 1 – Las Vegas Raiders (Broncos -3)
Week 2 – Washington Commanders
Week 3 – @ Miami Dolphins
Week 4 – @ Chicago Bears
Week 5 – New York Jets
Week 6 – @ Kansas City Chiefs
Week 7 – Green Bay Packers
Week 8 – Kansas City Chiefs
Week 9 – BYE
Week 10 – @ Buffalo Bills
Week 11 – Minnesota Vikings
Week 12 – Cleveland Browns
Week 13 – Houston Texans
Week 14 – @ Los Angeles Chargers
Week 15 – @ Detroit Lions
Week 16 – New England Patriots
Week 17 – Los Angeles Chargers
Week 18 – Las Vegas Raiders
Futures Odds
DraftKings/BetMGM: Wins Over/Under: 8.5 (-110/-110)
FanDuel: AFC West Odds: +700
After a disastrous first year with Russell Wilson, the Broncos will look to turn things around under the guidance of their newly acquired head coach Sean Payton. At the very least, the offense should be much better after finishing dead last in points per game in 2022 (16.9). In 15 seasons as the head coach for the Saints, Payton’s offense ranked top five in points per game nine times and finished top-10 in offensive yards 12 times. Before his one-year hiatus, Payton won double-digit games in four of his last five seasons, but it doesn’t give me enough confidence to take either side of the win total (8.5). It’s also hard to get behind their odds of winning the division, after finishing last in AFC West in 2022. I prefer to bet on Payton individually rather than the team and will be looking at his Coach of the Year odds as soon as lines are available.
Broncos Best Bets for 2023
FanDuel: Russell Wilson Over 3,650.5 Passing Yards
Russell Wilson struggled in his first season in the Mile High City, winning just four out of 15 games as the starter. He threw for a career-low 16 touchdowns to 11 interceptions while completing just 60.5% of his passes. However, once Denver fired Nathaniel Hackett, Wilson’s numbers were significantly better, averaging 19.5 passes for 252.5 yards and two touchdowns, with a 2:1 TD to interception-ratio in Weeks 17-18. per game and one interception. Over a 17-game season, Wilson was on pace for 4,292.5 passing yards with a new playcaller. Wilson cleared 3,650 passing yards in five of his last six seasons in Seattle when he played at least 15 games, despite never playing 17 games in a season.
BetMGM: Jerry Jeudy Over 874.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Jerry Jeudy came out hot in the season opener last season, catching four passes on seven targets that came his way for 102 receiving yards and a touchdown in his first game with Russell Wilson. Week 1 began to look like a blip on the radar for Jeudy, who was held under 55 receiving yards in his next five games. However, Jeudy found new life in Week 7, one of two games Wilson missed last season. With Brett Rypien under center, Jeudy saw a season-high 11 targets, catching seven of them for 96 yards. In his last eight games (excepting Week 10, when he played a single snap), Jeudy averaged 7.88 targets, 6.25 receptions, 85.25 receiving yards and half a touchdown. Extrapolated over a 17-week season, that would have put him on pace for 133.96 targets, 106.25 receptions, 1,449.25 receiving yards and 8.5 touchdowns. When healthy, Jeudy was unguardable, ranking first in the NFL in yards per route run against man coverage (4.19). Availability has been an issue for Jeudy, but he still has wiggle room to clear 874.5 receiving yards in fewer than 17 games.
BetMGM: Courtland Sutton Under 725.5 receiving yards (-115)
Courtland Sutton hasn’t looked the same since coming back from a torn ACL, posting another mediocre outing in 2022. He caught 64 passes for 829 yards and two touchdowns last season, despite Denver missing their third and fourth wide receivers, Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler, for most of the season. Sutton was the clear second option behind Jerry Jeudy and sometimes third when rookie tight end Greg Dulcich joined the team in Week 6. In five games where Dulcich and Jeudy played at least 10 snaps, Sutton averaged 4.8 targets, 2.2 receptions and 22.8 receiving yards. Assuming Sutton played all 17 games with the two, he was on a season-long pace for under 400 receiving yards (387.5). He’ll have increased target competition next season as well, with Patrick ready to go for training camp and the addition of second-round wide receiver Marvin Mims.
