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Welcome to the NBA playoffs — well, almost. Before the first-round matchups officially begin on April 19, the league has added a little extra drama with the NBA Play-In Tournament. Since its introduction in the 2020-2021 season, the Play-In Tournament has given fringe playoff teams a second chance — and fans a fun, chaotic appetizer before the main course.

The action tips off Tuesday, April 15, with the 7 seed vs. 8 seed games in both conferences. From there, the final two playoff spots in the East and West will be up for grabs.

Let’s break down exactly how the NBA Play-In Tournament works, look at this year’s matchups and highlight a few betting picks worth considering as the postseason gets underway.

How Does the Play-In Work?

Before the Play-In Tournament existed, the NBA Playoffs were simple: The top eight teams in each conference made the playoffs — 1 played 8, 2 played 7 and so on. But starting in 2021, the league added a twist.

Now, only the top six teams in each conference are guaranteed a playoff spot. Seeds 7 through 10 have to earn their way in through the Play-In Tournament — a mini-tournament that decides the final two playoff spots in each conference.

Here’s how it works:

→ Game 1 (Tuesday, April 15): The 7 seed hosts the 8 seed.

• Winner = Earns the 7 seed in the playoffs
• Loser = Gets one more chance to qualify

→ Game 2 (Wednesday, April 16): The 9 seed hosts the 10 seed.

• Winner = Advances to play the loser of Game 1
  Loser = Eliminated

→ Game 3 (Friday, April 18): The loser of the 7 vs. 8 game hosts the winner of the 9 vs. 10 game.

• Winner = Earns the 8 seed in the playoffs
• Loser = Eliminated

By the end of Friday night, the full 16-team playoff bracket will be set, with the 7 and 8 seeds in each conference officially locked in.

NBA Play-In Tournament Schedule 2025

Here’s a look at the schedule for the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament. At the time of publishing, we know the four teams battling it out in the Eastern Conference, while the Western Conference play-in matchups will be finalized after the regular season concludes.

Eastern Conference Play-In Matchups

Tuesday, April 15 – Game 1
(7) Orlando Magic vs. (8) Atlanta Hawks
→ Winner secures the 7 seed and a first-round matchup against the 2 seed.

Wednesday, April 16 – Game 2
(9) Chicago Bulls vs. (10) Miami Heat
→ Loser is eliminated. Winner advances to play the loser of Magic vs. Hawks.

Friday, April 18 – Game 3
Loser of Magic/Hawks vs. Winner of Bulls/Heat
→ Winner earns the 8-seed. Loser is eliminated.

Western Conference Play-In Matchups

Tuesday, April 15 – Game 1
(7) Golden State Warriors vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies
→ Winner secures the 7 seed and a first-round matchup against the 2 seed.

Wednesday, April 16 – Game 2
(9) Sacramento Kings vs. (10) Dallas Mavericks
→ Loser is eliminated. Winner advances to play the loser of the Warriors vs Grizzlies.

Friday, April 18 – Game 3
Loser of Warriors/Grizzlies vs. Winner of Kings/Mavericks
→ Winner earns the 8-seed. Loser is eliminated.

Best Bets for the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament

Looking for expert picks and betting recommendations for the 2025 NBA Play-In Tournament? Our team is tracking all of their bets — sides, totals, props, and more — in FTN’s Bet Tracker.

→ Check out all of our NBA Play-In bets here.

We’ll be adding plays throughout the week as lines move and matchups are finalized, so be sure to check back often.

2025 NBA Play-In Tournament: Predictions, Analysis & Best Bets for Each Conference

Let’s break down each conference and analyze the matchups to see which teams are most likely to advance. We’ll use FTN’s simulations, team ratings and recent form to help guide our picks.

Eastern Conference Play-In Predictions & Analysis

(7) Orlando Magic vs. (8) Atlanta Hawks Prediction

The Orlando Magic come into the Play-In Tournament playing their best basketball in months. It’s been an up-and-down season for Orlando, but with its roster finally healthy, it has caught fire at the perfect time, winning 9 of its last 11 games.

Remember, this was a team many expected to push for a top-four seed in the East behind rising stars Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. And while injuries derailed that early momentum, the Magic’s strong finish shows why they were so highly regarded.

The Atlanta Hawks, meanwhile, have been the definition of inconsistent all year. They’ve beaten some of the NBA’s best teams — including Boston, Cleveland (twice) and New York — but also lost twice to the lowly Wizards. After reaching the semifinals of the NBA’s In-Season Tournament, the Hawks fell apart in January, losing eight straight and trading away De’Andre Hunter at the deadline. They also lost a potential all-star in Jalen Johnson to injury. 

Still, Atlanta finished the regular season on a positive note, going 9-5 in March and leaning heavily on Trae Young’s offense.

Matchup Breakdown

These are two teams trending in different directions — and FTN’s model reflects that. Orlando currently ranks 15th in FTN’s power ratings, while Atlanta sits 19th.

The key matchup here is Orlando’s elite defense against Trae Young. The Magic allow the fewest points per game in the NBA and rank sixth in defensive efficiency according to FTN’s model. They’ll need a vintage Young explosion for Atlanta to pull off the upset, but that’s a tall ask against this Magic defense.

Marshall’s Pick: Orlando Magic 104, Atlanta Hawks 95

The Magic are the better team, they are at home and are peaking at the right time. Atlanta arguably has the best player in this game in Young, but Orlando’s defense and depth should be enough to slow him down and secure the 7 seed.

(9) Chicago Bulls vs. (10) Miami Heat Prediction

This is a matchup between two teams that probably don’t deserve to be here but have a chance to reach the playoffs thanks to the play-in games.

For the Bulls, this season was anticipated to be a rebuilding year after years of mediocrity. DeMar DeRozan departed in free agency, and Zach LaVine was traded at the deadline. However, the Bulls defied expectations, securing the ninth seed in the East. This late-season surge was led by Josh Giddey, who has been exceptional since the All-Star break, averaging nearly a triple-double with 21.2 PPG, 10.7 RPG and 9.3 APG. Initially considered a throw-in from Oklahoma City in the Alex Caruso trade, Giddey has emerged as a cornerstone for Chicago.

In Miami, this isn’t the typical Heat squad that opponents fear in the playoffs. While Erik Spoelstra remains at the helm, Jimmy Butler is no longer with the team. Butler was known for elevating his game in the postseason, making the Heat a formidable opponent. Without him, the Heat have struggled, posting a 24-32 record. Although they still have strong players like Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, this version of the Heat doesn’t instill the same fear as previous iterations.

Matchup Breakdown

Even without Butler, FTN’s model slightly favors the Heat in this matchup on a neutral court, ranking them 20th compared to the Bulls at 24th.

Is it bold to suggest that Giddey is the best player in this game? While Adebayo is a three-time NBA All-Star and five-time NBA All-Defensive player, and Herro made the All-Star game this year, Giddey is currently playing at an elite level. The Bulls carry more momentum into this matchup, and it’s plausible they could ride that into the next phase of the play-in.

Marshall’s Pick: Chicago Bulls 108, Miami Heat 105

This game feels like a coin flip. The Bulls are playing better at the moment, but the Heat have the advantage in coaching and playoff experience. If the Heat were at home, the pick might lean their way, but the slight edge goes to the home team in this scenario.

Western Conference Play-In Predictions & Analysis

(7) Golden State Warriors vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies Prediction

Despite posting an impressive 23-7 record since acquiring Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline, the Warriors weren’t able to climb out of the Play-In Tournament. But make no mistake — this is not your typical 7-seed.

Golden State enters this matchup with all the momentum, ranking as the 8th-best team in the NBA according to FTN’s model. And with a healthy trio of Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler, this roster is built for exactly this time of year. They don’t call him Playoff Jimmy for nothing. Sure, the core is aging — all three stars are in their mid-30s — but they’re healthy, experienced, and dangerous heading into this win-and-in scenario.

Memphis, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction. After spending most of the season as a top-2 seed in the West, the Grizzlies have stumbled badly down the stretch. They’re just 12-16 since the All-Star break and recently fired their head coach — never an ideal sign heading into the postseason.

Talent isn’t the issue in Memphis. Ja Morant is healthy and playing some of the best basketball of his career. Jaren Jackson Jr. has looked like an All-NBA talent. And Desmond Bane remains one of the league’s most underrated scorers. The Grizzlies also have depth, regularly running 10-deep. But despite all that, the wins haven’t come — and now they’ll have to deal with a veteran Warriors team that knows how to win in April and beyond.

Matchup Breakdown

The Warriors are deserved favorites here. They’re higher in FTN’s model, they’re at home, and they have far more momentum entering the postseason.

The key to this game comes down to Ja Morant’s shooting. He shot just 30.9% from three this season — and against a disciplined Warriors defense led by Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler, that could be a problem. If Ja isn’t a perimeter threat, Golden State will load the paint and make life miserable for Memphis’ offense.

But if Ja can knock down some outside shots early, it could open things up for Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane — and give the Grizzlies a real shot at the upset.

Marshall’s Pick: Golden State Warriors 117, Memphis Grizzlies 110

Everyone is going to pick the Warriors here, and I’m no different. The vibes in Memphis are off, and Golden State has too much playoff equity to overlook. I think Memphis keeps it competitive, but the Warriors should control this game from start to finish.

(9) Sacramento Kings vs. (10) Dallas Mavericks

The 9 vs. 10 matchup in the West features two of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this season.

The Kings entered the year with high expectations. While last season wasn’t quite as magical as their 2022-23 breakout, Sacramento added DeMar DeRozan in free agency, hoping his shot creation would elevate their offense. Instead, things went south quickly. Keegan Murray and Kevin Huerter regressed offensively, and at the trade deadline, the Kings made a massive shake-up — dealing franchise cornerstone De’Aaron Fox for Zach LaVine Predictably, the team took a step back post-trade, finishing just 16-18 down the stretch and ending the regular season at 40-42 — their worst record since 2021-22.

But as disappointing as the Kings have been, no fanbase has had it worse than Dallas.

Fresh off an NBA Finals appearance, the Mavericks were expected to contend again behind Luka Doncic. Instead, their season was flipped upside down on February 2nd, when they shocked the league by trading Doncic to the Lakers for Anthony Davis — a move so stunning that people thought Shams’ Twitter account had been hacked.

Dallas banked on a championship-ready duo of Davis and Kyrie Irving, but things unraveled fast. Davis got hurt in his very first game with the Mavericks. Kyrie Irving tore his ACL soon after. And just like that, Dallas’ season was in shambles. To their credit, the Mavericks have scraped their way into the play-in. Anthony Davis is back, and role players like Naji Marshall and PJ Washington have stepped up admirably. But this is a shell of the team that played in June last year.

Matchup Breakdown

On paper, the Kings should have the edge. Even without Malik Monk, the trio of Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Domantas Sabonis gives Sacramento a more reliable offensive foundation than what Dallas has right now.

But Dallas has the best player in this game, Anthony Davis, and that always gives them a chance. If Davis dominates the paint and stays out of foul trouble, the Mavericks can absolutely pull the upset.

The wild card here might be Naji Marshall, who averaged 19.8 points per game in March while Dallas battled injuries. The Kings don’t have many strong wing defenders, and Marshall could create matchup problems if his scoring surge continues.

Depth is a real concern for the Kings, especially without Monk, and that could come back to bite them in a win-or-go-home setting.

Marshall’s Pick: Dallas Mavericks 108, Sacramento Kings 107

I’m going with the upset here. The Kings have been better since Sabonis returned, but losing Malik Monk is massive. Sacramento’s offense gets thin quickly after their top three guys, while Dallas has the ultimate game-changer in Anthony Davis If AD controls the game on both ends, and gets just enough help from Marshall or PJ Washington, I like the Mavericks to sneak out a win.

FTN Simulation Model Predictions

FTN simulated the play-in games 10,000 times to determine which teams will advance to the playoffs. Here are the results of the simulations:

Eastern Conference Simulation Results

Western Conference Simulation Results