(Check out FTN’s full NBA playoff preview!)

The 2025 NBA playoffs are finally here.

After a long and unpredictable regular season, the field is set for the 2025 NBA playoffs, with 20 teams still alive thanks to the play-in tournament. While we have a clear favorite in each conference, at least according to the oddsmakers, these playoffs feel like one of the more wide-open ones in recent history. 

Despite entering the postseason as the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics are one of the betting favorites to win it all at +220. In the West, the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder lead the way at +180, looking to turn their breakout regular season into a deep playoff run. Behind them, the Cleveland Cavaliers (+700) and Los Angeles Lakers (+1700) are also firmly in the mix.

But the beauty of the NBA playoffs is that anything can happen, and that’s exactly what FTN’s NBA betting model is designed to capture.

Rather than leaning on narratives or public perception, our model uses a data-driven approach to project the entire postseason. We simulate every single series 10,000 times, including the play-in, factoring in player performance, injuries, matchup data, and more, to create the most accurate possible view of how the playoffs might unfold.

In this article, we’ll walk through FTN’s full projected playoff bracket, break down the most likely paths for each team, and highlight the best bets to target based on our simulations.

FTN’s 2025 NBA Playoff Bracket: Simulated 10,000 Times

Below is FTN’s official 2025 NBA playoff bracket, generated from simulating the entire postseason 10,000 times.

This isn’t just a prediction based on vibes or recent performance. Every series, every matchup, every path to the Finals has been run through our model to produce true probabilities for each team advancing.

The percentages you’ll see in this bracket represent how often each team reached that round across our simulations. The higher the number, the more often that outcome occurred.

FTN’s 2025 NBA Playoff Probabilities by Round

Below are each team’s odds to make each round, according to FTN’s simulation model. Also included is each team’s odds to win the finals. 

Key Takeaways from FTN’s 2025 NBA Playoff Bracket

After running the 2025 NBA Playoffs through FTN’s simulation model 10,000 times, a few things stand out right away from the bracket.

The Cavaliers have the advantage over the Celtics 

FTN’s model paints a completely different picture of the Eastern Conference than the sportsbooks. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Celtics are the favorites to reach the finals, with -145 odds. While the Cavaliers are the clear second team, they’re far behind, with +225 odds to make the finals. Our model sees it entirely differently – the Cavs make the finals in more than 50% of our simulations, while we give the true odds the Celtics make the finals at +162. The Cavaliers have homecourt advantage over the Celtics, which could be the difference if these teams face one another. 

FTN’s Model Is Even Higher on Oklahoma City Than the Market

The Thunder are the betting favorite at +165, but FTN’s model makes them look like an even stronger juggernaut. OKC won the title in 44.9% of our simulations, implying fair odds closer to +123, a big edge over the market. The Western Conference is as strong as ever, leading many people in the media to pick the field over the Thunder in playoff predictions. But the Thunder are one of the strongest teams our model has ever recorded, and even with a difficult path to the finals, the model doesn’t think the Thunder have a lot to worry about. 

The Market is Too High on the Warriors

Currently at DraftKings, the Warriors are +1700 to win the finals, the fifth-shortest odds in the NBA. While our model likes the Warriors, it still thinks the market is a bit bullish. Our model only has them winning the title 1.7% of the time, with a true fair number closer to +5782. Their path in the West is brutal, and they project as the seventh-most likely team to even reach the Finals. While we don’t expect them to have trouble getting out of the play-in, the fact that they must do that makes their path difficult. 

The Clippers are OKC’s toughest challenge

FTN’s model has been high on the Clippers all season – we have them as the fourth-most likely team to win the finals. The problem? They have to face OKC in the second round, the best team in the NBA. But the Thunder should not take the Clippers lightly, as Kawhi Leonard is playing at an MVP-caliber level, and James Harden shouldn’t be slept on either. That’s why we love them as a +1700 long shot to win the West.

There’s No Hope for the Play-In Teams

You can make an argument for the Warriors, who have a 1.7% chance of winning the finals. But outside of them, don’t expect much out of the play-in teams. While the Grizzlies at least have a 26% chance to reach the second round, no other play-in team has better than a 5% chance of doing so. Enjoy the play-in while it lasts, because according to our model, these teams won’t be hanging around the playoffs for long. 

2025 NBA Playoffs: FTN’s Model’s Prediction for Every Team

Below is a full breakdown of every team in the 2025 NBA Playoffs and their chances, according to FTN’s model, to reach the NBA Finals and win the NBA Championship. These percentages come directly from simulating the entire playoffs 10,000 times. 

Best Bets for the 2025 NBA Playoffs

With FTN’s model simulating every series 10,000 times, a few futures bets stand out as potential value heading into the 2025 NBA Playoffs.

Here are some of the best bets we are targeting based on our simulations and the current betting market:

Bet 1: Cleveland Cavaliers to Win the Eastern Conference

(+225, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is easily our favorite futures bet on the board.

While the betting market has the Celtics as heavy favorites to win the East (-145), FTN’s model sees Cleveland as a real threat to crash the party.

According to our simulations, the Cavaliers reached the NBA Finals in 51.3% of outcomes — a staggering number that blows their implied odds (+225 = about 31%) out of the water. In fact, Cleveland made the Finals more often in our sims than Boston (38.2%).

While homecourt advantage should play a key role, this comes down to Cleveland’s elite defense, strong team health entering the playoffs, and a favorable path early on. If Donovan Mitchell stays healthy and Evan Mobley continues to dominate defensively, the Cavs absolutely have the tools to come out of the East.

Given the current market price, this is a bet our model loves.

Bet 2: Los Angeles Clippers to Win the Western Conference

(+1700, FanDuel Sportsbook)

While the Clippers are priced as a longshot at +1700 on FanDuel, our simulations tell a different story. FTN’s model gives LA a 7.13% chance to win the West, implying true odds closer to +1302, making this a good number at FanDuel.

What makes the Clippers so interesting is that FTN’s model actually rates them as the second-best team in the West behind only the Thunder. And their potential second-round matchup against OKC might end up deciding the entire conference.

If the Clippers can get past the Thunder, their path suddenly opens up in a major way, and they’d likely be favored in a Western Conference Finals series against anyone else, at least according to our model.

This is a bet on talent, upside, and the idea that LA has a much better shot than the market is giving them credit for.

Get All of FTN’s NBA Playoff Picks

These are just a few of the bets we like, but our team will be adding more plays every day throughout the playoffs, including series bets, player props, and game picks.

→ Check out FTN’s NBA Bet Tracker to see every pick from our betting team, updated in real-time.

Final Thoughts on the 2025 NBA Playoffs

The 2025 NBA Playoffs are shaping up to be one of the most exciting and unpredictable postseasons in recent memory. While the Boston Celtics and Oklahoma City Thunder enter as the betting favorites, FTN’s model shows there’s plenty of room for surprises, and several teams lurking with real upset potential.

Whether you’re filling out a bracket, betting futures or betting individual games, having a data-driven view of each team’s true chances is critical, and that’s exactly what FTN’s model provides.

We’ll be updating our projections and adding new bets to our Bet Tracker throughout the playoffs as matchups and odds evolve.

→ Follow all of our NBA Playoffs bets in FTN’s Bet Tracker here.

Good luck, enjoy the games and we’ll see you in the Finals.