Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We have a 10-game DFS slate in the NBA Saturday and once again, there is an insane amount of news to keep track of. Make sure you are following news throughout the afternoon.
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Pistons @ Hornets preview
CHA -7, total: 214
After missing 21 consecutive games with a wrist injury, LaMelo Ball has a shot to return to the Charlotte lineup Saturday. If he does suit up, Ball could come off the bench, though he’ll certainly see limited minutes. Of course, his return would result in fewer minutes from Devonte' Graham, Brad Wanamaker and the Martin twins, especially if Malik Monk, who has missed 15 straight games, also returns. He, like Ball, is listed as questionable. If Ball returns, no one on the Hornets really stands out as must-plays, though Terry Rozier would still be viable. Of course, you prefer Ball to be out, as Rozier is sporting a solid 26% usage rate since Ball has been out of the lineup, while averaging nearly 1.10 fantasy points per minute. Ball’s presence could impact the peripheral opportunities for players like P.J. Washington and Miles Bridges, too, though Bridges should continue to log huge minutes for Charlotte. Graham, meanwhile, would remain a very solid mid-range option, as he’s scored at least 40 fantasy points in each of the last two games. He is also averaging 5.6 spot-up points per game on the year, the ninth-most in the NBA, while the Pistons are coughing up the eighth-worst field goal percentage to opposing spot-up shooters (40.8%).
Meanwhile, the Pistons continue to sit their “injured” players, as Cory Joseph and Jerami Grant have once again been ruled out. Mason Plumlee will also rest, which means we could see Detroit deploy the same starting five we saw on Thursday (Killian Hayes, Josh Jackson, Sekou Doumbouya, Saddiq Bey and Isaiah Stewart). Stewart posted a 20-10 double-double and in eight starts this season, he is averaging 14 points, 11.5 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game. He is sporting a 35% rebounding rate with Plumlee off the floor this season and faces a Hornets team that is allowing the third-most rebounds per game to opposing centers this season (16.7). With the Pistons so short-handed and the price tags either fair or cheap, the entire Detroit starting five is viable this evening.
Warriors @ Rockets preview
GSW -7, total: 232.5
Are you kidding me, Kevin Porter? With John Wall out for the remainder of the year and Houston lacking ball-handlers, Porter went for a career-high 50 points Thursday night, adding 11 assists and five rebounds. The Rockets will continue to let Porter initiate the offense, as he touched the ball 121 times in their last game, while averaging an insane 10.9 minutes of possession. He also had a usage rate near 32% in the game and is in store for a very strong finish down the stretch. A pace-up spot against a Warriors team that is second in the league in pace sets Porter up nicely, too. Kelly Olynyk has also been very productive lately, scoring at least 47 fantasy points in each of his last four games. Since joining the Rockets, Olynyk is sporting a solid 23% usage rate and 26% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.15 fantasy points per minute. Christian Wood also has a ceiling here, as he’s scored at least 50 fantasy points in each of his last three games.
For the Warriors, Stephen Curry is in an elite spot. Houston ranks 24th against both scorers and ball handlers, as well as 27th against dimers, according to our advanced DVP tool. The Rockets are also surrendering the sixth-most points per game to opposing shooters off screens (1.05), while Curry’s 4.4 points per game off screens lead the NBA. He is also averaging 4.7 transition points per game (10th-most), while no team in basketball is coughing up more points per game in transition than the Rockets (24.4). Meanwhile, Draymond Green is questionable with a back injury. If he sits, Juan Toscano-Anderson would see an uptick in minutes, especially if Kelly Oubre remains sidelined. Both players would see more time at power forward, resulting in more rebounding opportunities. Finally, Kevon Looney wouldn’t be the worst value option at $3,800, though giving up a center spot with a low ceiling isn’t the best move, especially in tournaments.
Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -5, total: 217.5
Trae Young returned from a four-game absence Friday night, scoring 32 points in just three quarters of work against the 76ers. Now the Hawks are on the second leg of a back-to-back, which could lead to Young sitting. However, if he’s active and not limited, he’s an elite option. Young is averaging a league-leading 13.7 points per game as the ball handler out of the pick and roll, while Chicago is allowing the most points per game to opposing pick and roll ball handlers (22.6). They also rank 26th against primary ball handlers, scorers and crafty finishers on the year. We’ll have to see if Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kevin Huerter return to the lineup, who should be considered day-to-day. Clint Capela only played 17 minutes on Friday but still scored 34.75 fantasy points and double-doubled. He still leads the NBA in rebounding chances per game on the year (23.5) and faces a Bulls team that ranks 29th against rim protectors, 30th against skilled centers and 26th against rebounders. Meanwhile, if Huerter and/or Bogdanovic remain out, Solomon Hill will have to play 33-35 minutes.
Nikola Vucevic was dealing with a hip issue but played Friday, scoring over 47 fantasy points. He’ll continue to do the heavy lifting for the Bulls with Zach LaVine out, as he’s sporting a 28.5% usage rate and 34% rebounding rate with LaVine off the floor since joining Chicago, while averaging a whopping 1.43 fantasy points per minute in the split. There is nothing wrong with this matchup, as the Hawks are allowing the third-most points per possession to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll (1.21), as well as the fifth-worst field goal percentage off the play type (56.5%). Vucevic, meanwhile, is averaging 5.4 points per game as the roll man this season, the second-most in the NBA.
Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers
MIA -11.5, total: 208.5
The Cavaliers saw Collin Sexton return from his concussion Friday but also watched Darius Garland leave with an ankle injury. He didn’t return and is questionable for this game against Miami. Sexton did what he always does in his return, scoring 20-plus real points. If Garland sits on Saturday, Sexton will take a ton of shots and with Garland off the floor this season, he is sporting a team-high 30.7% usage rate, while averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute in the split. And with Matthew Dellavedova dealing with a neck injury, Damyean Dotson could flirt with 27 minutes at just $3,100 on DK and he isn’t the worst point per minute producer. Meanwhile, Kevin Love didn’t attempt a field goal Friday but don’t be surprised if he’s a lot more active in this game, facing a Miami team that is allowing the second-most points per game to spot-up shooters on the year (34.7).
For Miami, both Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler should continue to provide a very strong combination of floor and ceiling. However, both players are priced where they should be and while the matchup is strong, this game just isn’t the most enticing contest on the slate, making them secondary plays. With Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo still out, Kendrick Nunn should play 35-plus minutes if the game stays close, keeping him in play in that mid-range ($5,600).
Grizzlies @ Magic preview
MEM -11.5, total: 220
This game isn’t on my radar all that much. Ja Morant is pretty expensive at $8,400, and while the matchup is strong, he hasn’t shown a consistent enough ceiling for me to feel great about that price tag. And with Jaren Jackson back in the lineup, perhaps some of his usage will drop. Jackson rested on Friday but should be back tonight and in limited action this season, he is sporting a massive 30.1% usage rate, while averaging 1.31 fantasy points per minute. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he can get to 25-27 minutes, making him interesting at $6,000 on DraftKings.
Orlando isn’t on my radar at all here. Cole Anthony continues to touch the ball a lot, averaging 6.06 seconds per touch over the last 10 games, good for the highest mark in the NBA during that span. He isn’t an awful option, but his ceiling is rather limited.
Pacers @ Thunder preview
IND -6.5, total: 233
Domantas Sabonis has missed the last seven games with a back injury and is questionable to return here. Meanwhile, Myles Turner remains out, as does Malcolm Brogdon, who left Thursday’s game with a hamstring injury. Sabonis is averaging the second-most touches per game this season (96.2), while Brogdon is right behind him, averaging 86.1 per game (ninth-most), so the Pacers missing either (or both) players will open up a lot. T.J. McConnell is sporting a massive 32% assist rate, while averaging 1.24 fantasy points per minute with both players off the floor this season. His touches per game absolutely skyrocket with Brogdon inactive so we really need to consider him tonight. Meanwhile, Caris LeVert would continue to see plenty of usage, sporting a near 27% usage rate with Sabonis and Brogdon off the court. The shot attempts should be in the twenties if both players are out. Then there is Oshae Brissett, who has been the surprise fantasy player over the last week. He’s benefited from Indiana’s frontcourt being so short-handed. Over the last five games, Brissett is averaging 18.8 rebounding chances per game, good for the sixth-most in the league. And over the last week, Brissett is sporting a 26% rebounding rate, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute.
For Oklahoma City, Luguentz Dort will sit out, which opens up a lot, as his usage rate was flirting with 30% over the last three weeks. In his absence, Svi Mykhaliuk and Kenrich Williams will see more run, though neither player is the most efficient player for fantasy. Theo Maledon has a solid 23% usage rate with Dort and SGA off the floor this season, should play 32-35 minutes and is just $4,800 on DraftKings.
Pelicans @ Timberwolves preview
NOP -4, total: 238
This game has plenty of fantasy potential, as it features two teams that rank 27th and 28th in defensive rating on the year. Karl-Anthony Towns has been a touch underwhelming as of late but certainly not bad. This is a good matchup, as the Pelicans are coughing up the second-most points per game to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll this season (9.2), while Towns is averaging a solid 4.0 points per game as the roll man. Meanwhile, D'Angelo Russell’s price tag has now come up to just below $7,000 on DraftKings and although he continues to come off the bench, the usage has been there, sporting a near 28% usage rate over his last 10 games. The Pelicans, meanwhile, rank 24th against opposing bench players this season, while also ranking 23rd against scorers, keeping Russell in the GPP consideration.
For New Orleans, Steven Adams will remain out with a toe injury. It’ll be his second straight absence — in the first, Willy Hernangomez entered the starting lineup, scoring 33 fantasy points and posting a double-double in 28 minutes. With Adams off the court this season, Hernangomez’s rebounding rate jumps up to an impressive 39%, while he is averaging 1.08 fantasy points per minute in the split. He remains a strong option. Meanwhile, Zion Williamson bounced back last game, scoring 48 fantasy points. You love games where Zion can get out in transition and this is certainly one of them, as Minnesota is coughing up the second-most transition points per game on the year (22.8), while also allowing the third-worst field goal percentage off the play type (56.9%). Williamson is averaging 4.5 transition points per game (15th), while shooting an insane 70.8% off the play type. I also have no issues with Brandon Ingram at $8,300, while Lonzo Ball will continue to present a strong floor at $7,200.
Wizards @ Mavericks preview
DAL -5, total: 232.5
After previously dealing with an ankle injury, Kristaps Porzingis picked up a knee injury in his last game and is now questionable again. If he sits, Maxi Kleber would become viable, as long as he suits up. And if he also sits, Dwight Powell and Willie Cauley-Stein would see significant bumps. Of course, Dallas will continue to run through Luka Doncic, who is sporting an insane 37.1% usage rate, 25% rebounding rate and 24% assist rate with Porzingis off the court this season. We know a matchup with Washington is as good as it gets. Finally, Dorian Finney-Smith isn’t the most exciting player, but he should provide a decent floor at his price tag.
For Washington, do I really need to say anything about Russell Westbrook? You know what you are going to get from him, as he finished the month of April with 13 triple-doubles in 16 games, averaging 21.5 points, 13.4 rebounds and 12.0 assists per game during that span. Bradley Beal, meanwhile, won’t offer the same peripherals but we know there is still a massive ceiling with him, and he is fairly priced at $9,800 on DK. Outside of the top two players, I don’t hate Rui Hachimura, who is the same price as Finney-Smith but probably has a higher ceiling.
Nuggets @ Clippers preview
LAC -5, total: 221.5
Kawhi Leonard has missed the last five games with a foot injury, though the Clippers are hopeful he can return on Saturday. During those five games, Paul George is sporting a healthy 35% usage rate, posting three games with 50-plus fantasy points. And with Leonard off the court this season, George is sporting a 35.6% usage rate, while averaging nearly 1.40 fantasy points per minute. If Kawhi remains out, George is still a very strong play at $10,000 but if he’s active, George likely is too expensive for me. Leonard’s return would also hurt Terance Mann and Marcus Morris’ fantasy potential and would really make the Clippers an underwhelming team for me tonight. Facing Nikola Jokic might lead to 30 minutes from Ivica Zubac, while Denver is still allowing the highest field goal percentage in basketball at the rim.
The Nuggets are pretty easy right now. You can continue to play Nikola Jokic, who still leads the NBA in touches per game on the year (101.1), while Michael Porter is logging huge minutes right now, while his usage rate is actually right behind Jokic’s over the last week of play (28%). And with Jamal Murray and Monte Morris out, Facundo Campazzo and Austin Rivers remain viable options.
Raptors @ Jazz preview
UTA -7, total: 217
Donovan Mitchell could return here, though he remains very questionable. Meanwhile, Mike Conley is also questionable with his hamstring injury. If both players remain out for Utah, Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles will continue to be asked to initiate the offense, though their price tags are very high. If one of Conley or Mitchell play, I likely won’t play either Ingles or Clarkson in this game. I think I feel better about Bojan Bogdanovic, especially due to the matchup. The Raptors are surrendering the third-most points per game to opposing spot-up shooters on the year (34.4), while Bogdanovic is averaging 5.3 spot-up points per game this season, good for the 15th-most in basketball. Meanwhile, 37.3% of the points allowed by the Raptors this season have come from beyond the arc, the fifth-highest mark in the NBA. Finally, Rudy Gobert is rarely a bad play, but the Jazz are pretty expensive and I find myself liking other centers more on this slate.
For Toronto, Kyle Lowry will rest, which could make someone like DeAndre' Bembry a viable punt play at minimum salary on DraftKings. Of course, Fred VanVleet will certainly handle the ball more, as his usage rate jumps to just over 27% with Lowry off the floor this season, while also sporting a solid 18% assist rate. VanVleet should be the primary ball handler out of the pick and roll with Lowry out, while Utah is quietly surrendering the second-most points per game to opposing pick and roll ball handlers (22.0). Meanwhile, Pascal Siakam hasn’t been great over the last few games but an $8,200 price tag with no Lowry is pretty enticing, regardless of the matchup. Khem Birch, on the other hand, has been fantastic, scoring 31, 35.5 and 43.2 fantasy points over his last three games. He’s been starting and playing strong minutes with Chris Boucher out.
